#2 Oklahoma State's Bracket And Draws Breakdown
#2 Oklahoma State's Bracket And Draws Breakdown
Going 10 strong into St. Louis this week, the second-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys are looking to unseat the Penn State Nittany Lions from the top spot of the NCAA rankings.
Going 10 strong into St. Louis this week, the second-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys are looking to unseat the Penn State Nittany Lions from the top spot of the NCAA rankings. The Cowboys' draws are manageable at the NCAA Championships but not particularly favorable. Let's get a closer look at the path OSU coach John Smith's squad must take to win an NCAA team title on Thursday, March 16, to Saturday, March 18, at Scottrade Center.
125 - #8 Nick Piccininni
Pich opens with a very winnable match against Elijah Oliver of Indiana. The rubber meets the road quickly for Piccininni as he'll face Josh Rodriguez in round two. Piccininni won in overtime last time around in a competitive bout that saw both guys able to convert off their own leg attacks. While this match may seem essential, I don't think this outcome means much either way in terms of Piccininni's draw. Should he win, he'll have Gilman. Ouch. If he loses to Rodriguez, I think his draw is much more navigable as he'll likely face Travis Piotrowski, Barlow McGhee, and the loser of the 3/6 quarter. In many cases this would be considered to be the Nick Suriano/Ethan Lizak loser, so Piccininni would get Lizak. But with Suriano's health a major question mark, it's very possible this turns into Freddie Rodriguez. So that's the path to AA status if Piccininni loses to Josh Rodriguez. Should he win, he'll drop down and face Josh Terao or Dylan Peters in the round of 12. Again, navigable. Next up he'd have someone on the level of Sean Fausz, Tim Lambert, or Sean Russell. That will be a match Piccininni may not be favored in but will certainly be winnable.
133 - #3 Kaid Brock
With a weight this deep, landmines are everywhere, but Brock's draw looks pretty decent. While opening with Scott DelVecchio and followed by longtime rival Mitch McKee isn't ideal, there's not much to suggest that this bout won't go Brock's way. Then in the quarter he'd face Dom Forys, who he dominated earlier this year. So while there are no cupcakes where you can expect bonus for Brock, he has three very winnable bouts up to the semifinals.In the semis he's looking at either Seth Gross or Eric Montoya. Both present similar issues for Brock. He can beat either, but their top games will be the difference-maker against Brock. If he gets away consistently, he'll win. If not, he's going to drop down. If he wins, then he's in the finals, where he'll await Nathan Tomasello (my pick), Cory Clark, or Stevan Micic.
Should Brock lose that semi, it gets brutal. He'll face a combination of Cory Clark/Stevan Micic/Zane Richards right off the bat, then likely Clark or Montoya for third/fourth if he was able to win that. Those are losable matches all around. OSU will need Brock to stay top side.
141 - #1 Dean Heil
Dean Heil had an outstanding Big 12s, picking up two falls and dominating Bryce Meredith in the finals. Bonus points will be tough to come by with Heil's draw. That's not because he isn't offensive enough; his competition is simply tough from start to finish. Heil's first match is against one of the most solid unseeded guys in the country regardless of weight, Brock Zacherl. Then Heil would face Jared Prince next, who is very dangerous. Ironically, I think Heil's best bonus opportunity in his first three matches is against Jaydin Eierman, whose go-for-broke style could be capitalized upon by the savvy Heil. In the semis Heil will take on either Anthony Ashnault (his semi opponent from last year) or Matthew Kolodzik. I think this is another decision victory for Heil and then again in the NCAA finals, likely against Kevin Jack or Joey McKenna.
149 - #2 Anthony Collica
I like Collica's draw to the semis. Mendenhall and Theobold are solid, but I don't think either can go on their feet with Collica. In the quarters he'll likely see Max Thomsen, who has had some flashes, including a win over Lavion Mayes. This is where thinks get interesting for Collica and you start thinking less about bonus and more about simply getting your hand raised. I do think he wins there, and once again against Mayes in the semis. However, Mayes has shown multiple times he can beat Collica. Should he drop the Mayes match, he'll likely see Micah Jordan or Brandon Sorensen -- a tough bout whichever one he gets. Then for the third-place bout, Collica will probably see Jordan or Sorensen there. It just depends on who wins that 4/5 quarter between those two. So more of the same. Like 133, this backside is full of landmines.
157 - #5 Joe Smith
What Cowboys fans would do to get Smith moved from the five seed to the No. 6. Though I think there's a real shot Smith makes the semis, having Jason Nolf on your side is a virtual guarantee of wrestling on the backside at some point. Smith's draw to the quarter isn't bad. He'll see Alex Griffin then Clark Glass before butting heads with Tyler Berger. While Berger is the better scrambler and top wrestler, I'd give Smith the advantage on his feet. It's a coin flip, but based on Smith's progression, I think it's his to lose.
Win or lose that quarter, I think he ends up with a rematch against Berger in the match for third. For Smith to get to that bout, he'll be looking at either Joey Lavallee or Dylan Palacio -- two guys with wins over Smith. Ultimately, I think Smith winds up around fourth.
165 - #9 Chandler Rogers
After a winnable first-round match against Andrew Fogarty, Rogers see his Big 12 finals opponent, Dylan Cottrell. This was a tight one that Cottrell won. The stakes are high here. The loser of this match will ultimately face the loser of the Daniel Lewis/Vincenzo Joseph quarter in the round of 12. You don't want any part of that if you're either guy. A win in that second-round match will give the victor a much more manageable bout against Bryce Steiert. A round-of-12 win would likely face Rogers face off against Chad Walsh in a clash of pinners. I think Walsh's scrambles are problematic for Rogers. 174 - #7 Kyle Crutchmer
Again, another unfavorable draw in my opinion. Matt Reed in round one is not a walk in the park for Crutchmer. Zach Brunson hasn't found the stride he hit last year but is always a threat. Crutchmer could face him in the second round. A rematch with Brian Realbuto looms in the quarters. Crutchmer has beaten Realbuto before, but it was back at the 2016 Southern Scuffle. That's a coin flip match in my estimation. Should he lose to Realbuto, it's looking like a Taylor Lujan/Casey Kent type of guy in the round of 12, followed by a tough Ryan Preisch in the consi quarter. It feels like regardless of his outcome against Realbuto, Crutchmer will be wrestling for somewhere in the fifth to seventh range. He'll either run into Mark Hall or Zach Epperly on the backside.
184 - #4 Nolan Boyd
I love Boyd's draw to the quarter. I think he could bonus in both bouts personally. Zachary Zavatsky's scrambling and athleticism will give Boyd problems, but the tank offense will keep him in it. Should Boyd win that, he'll likely fall to Gabriel Dean then face Myles Martin in the consi semis. I think Martin would be favored there, sending Boyd to a match against Samuel Brooks for fifth place. 197 - #6 Preston Weigel
While a round one match against Marcus Harrington should be a walk in the park, round two could get hairy. You may pencil Shawn Scott in for that match, but I wouldn't be surprised one iota to see Ben Honis, who gave Weigel real problems in the dual, win that match. If Weigel wins that, he's unlikely going to be beating Kollin Moore, who seems to be getting better each time out. Assuming the loss in the quarters, Weigel is looking at a very navigable round-of-12 match against Brett Harner (who hasn't been right all year), Nate Rotert (who he just majored), or unseeded Brad Johnson of Oklahoma.
After the round-of-12 bout, I think Weigel will fall to Jared Haught before taking seventh with a win over Ryan Wolfe of Rider. Weigel feels destined for the sixth-to-eighth range, but his talent and skill set could make him a nightmare if he puts it all together.
285 - #6 Austin Schafer
Schafer looks set up well to make the quarters as he'll face Jere Heino and then likely Jared Johnson of UTC. Ty Walz looks to be an unlikely win for Schafer. That sends Schafer against someone such as Denzel Dejournette or Ross Larson -- a very winnable match in my estimation. Then I think Schafer beats Tanner Hall after that before losing to Nick Nevills and ultimately beating Jacob Kasper for fifth. If Schafer was healthy and clicking all year, maybe I'd say he can pull an upset off, but I'm not sure that's the case. Still, a fifth-place finish is great.As crazy as it sounds, 10 All-Americans for OSU with three in the finals and a champion still might not get it done against Penn State. To beat PSU, Oklahoma State must 1) bonus in unexpected spots, 2) have PSU take a hit somewhere outside of 125, 133, and 141, and 3) have a few guys outwrestle their seeds.
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