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At the 2017 NCAA Championships, Penn State had the best NCAA team scoring performance since the 2005 Oklahoma State Cowboys scored 153 points with five champions. Four of those five OSU champions were returning the following season, but they didn't have the same magic and only came away with two title the following season. The Cowboys put up a solid, but nowhere near record-breaking, performance of 122.5 points.

The speculation that the 2018 Nittany Lions could break the team scoring record began well before they even hit the mat in St. Louis for the 2017 championships. Can Penn State break the scoring record at the 2018 NCAA Championships? Originally when I entertained the thought, I was 100 percent confident the scoring record would be broken. After a lot of analysis, I am not nearly as confident.

History

The current scoring record is held by the 1997 Iowa Hawkeyes, coach by Dan Gable. The Hawkeyes put up 170 points in 1997, but there does need to be a little asterisk placed in here. In 2001, the placement values changed to the current values. There has also been several bonus-point changes through the course of history, but for argument's sake we are recognizing the 1997 Hawkeyes as the current record-holder. I will entertain a little discussion and rescore the Hawkeyes' 1997 tournament under the current scoring system.

Iowa '97	Jesse Whitmer	Mike Mena	Mark Ironside	Kasey Gillis	Lincoln McIlravy	Joe Williams	Mike Uker	Tony Ersland	Lee Fullhart	Wes Hand	Total
Points	22	18	23	15	24	25.5	14	2	23	5.5	172
Bonus	2	2	3	6	4	5.5	4	0	3	4	33.5
Place	1st	2nd	1st	6th	1st	1st	5th	R12	1st	R12
Record	5-0	4-1	5-0	5-3	5-0	5-0	6-2	3-2	5-0	3-2	46-10

Whether you believe 170 points or 172 points is the mark, the 2018 Nittany Lions have a legitimate chance to get there. Almost everything has to go right, and a healthy lineup has to be available for PSU coach Cael Sanderson.

The 2017 Nittany Lions scored 146.5 team points with five champions. In the point total, Penn State scored 32.5 bonus points. If the Nittany Lions are to take the team scoring record, they will need to match this bonus rate. Iowa scored 33.5 bonus points in 1997. The Nittany Lions will have a slight margin of error if they are able to bonus at the same rate. If the team record is in jeopardy, PSU is going to win about 10 more matches than it did at the 2017 tournament. This will give the Nittany Lions another eight bonus points if they are able to match the bonus rate from this year. Those bonus points will allow one of the five returning champions to not make the finals match and still have a chance at the scoring record. This padding is necessary for Penn State, because it is almost impossible to see Mark Hall and Vincenzo Joseph both repeat with the narrow margins of victory over fields that almost entirely return for the 2018 season.

Projections

The following table breaks down what a possible scoring breakdown could be for an NCAA record performance by the 2018 Nittany Lions.

Team	125	133	141	149	157	165	174	184	197	285	Total
PSU '17	DNC	DNQ	4.5	28	27	23	22.5	27.5	4	10	146.5
PSU '18	23	4	6	28	27	23	22.5	27.5	4	10	175
Iowa '97	22	18	23	15	24	25.5	14	2	23	5.5	172

Let's look at a weight-by-weight breakdown through an optimistic lens to show how the record could fall.

125lbs: 22 Points

Nick Suriano was a solid No. 2 all year long at 125lbs, losing only to Thomas Gilman. He will come into the season ranked second, as Darian Cruz of Lehigh knocked of Gilman en route to his title. For the Nittany Lions to break the record, they need a title out of Suriano with bonus points along the way.

133lbs: 4 Points

Health is a big component of the scoring record possibly falling. Coming into the 2016-17 season, Jered Cortez looked to be a low All-American contender, and injury kept him out of the lineup after December. He seems to be the guy that needs to be in the lineup if this is to come together. The four points I have Cortez pencilled in for is the point total of a wrestler losing in the round of 12 with two bonus points along the way.

141lbs: 6 Points

This is where the biggest question mark is for the Nittany Lions. I believe Nick Lee will be the guy taking the mat in Cleveland. He had an incredible prep career in Indiana before heading to Happy Valley this past season to wrestle with the NLWC. A strong Bill Farrell in November saw him take freestyle wins over Alan Waters and Shelton Mack. He won a tight match over Lehigh's Luke Karam by fall very late in the match at the Edinboro Open before falling to Missouri's Zach Synon.

The potential is there, and for the record to fall it needs to be realized. The six points I have Lee pencilled in for represents an eighth-place finish with a hedge on any bonus, as all decisions to eighth place scores you 5.5 points. This is one of the weight classes that extra points could come from if one of the returning national champions fails to match their point total.

149lbs: 28 Points

The good news is Zain Retherford has almost scored the maximum 30 points in his past two trips to the NCAA tournament. The bad news is it is almost impossible for the Nittany Lions to pick up any extra points from the weight class in 2018. Status quo for Zain at 28 points.

157lbs: 27 Points

Jason Nolf is in a similar situation to Retherford. He scored 27 out of a possible 30 points at the 2017 championships. He should be status quo, but could we see Isaiah Martinez return to 157? Twenty-seven points for Nolf.

165lbs: 23 Points

This is the biggest opportunity for the Nittany Lions to slide from their 2017 total. Vincenzo Joseph scored a late takedown to defeat Daniel Lewis, was in a razor-thin match with Logan Massa, and had a small lead before scoring a fall over IMar. With all of those opponents returning, I would call it a miracle if PSU got a matching 23 points in 2018. I decided not to lower point totals for this optimistic view, so I have 'Cenzo pencilled in for 23.

174lbs: 22.5 Points

Mark Hall had close matches with Zahid Valencia and Bo Jordan, who both return. Hall looks small for the weight but was staunch on staying at 174lbs in his championship press conference. He isn't nearly as unlikely to match his point total as Joseph, but it is another weight class that it will be tough to match the 2017 point total.

184lbs: 27.5 Points

Bo Nickal is a pinner. He scored three falls and a technical fall en route to the championship showdown with Gabe Dean. Nickal scored 27.5 of the 30 possible points while taking down Dean. Next year looks to be a lock for a similar performance. Well, unless Myles Martin is in Bo's path.

197lbs: 4 Points

Matt McCutcheon is an undersized 197-pounder. He wrestled fantastically through the season and won a lot of close matches. The way the bracket played out left him in the round of 12, just like his freshman year at 184lbs. Whether Anthony Cassar can get healthy and challenge for the spot or we see McCutcheon again in 2018, this is a weight class that has the potential to be an improvement for the Nittany Lions. I have just four points pencilled in. If their title contenders falter at all, 197lbs needs to come up big to break the scoring record.

285lbs: 10 Points

Nick Nevills scored 10 points at the 2017 NCAA Championships. This is a safe number to pencil Nevills in for next year. The weight class graduates a few guys ahead of him and will be another spot PSU could gain points on the projection. 

PSU 2018 Projected Total: 175

There are a few spots that the Nittany Lions will have trouble replicating the point total from 2017 and a few spots they could score considerably more points at the 2018 NCAA Championships. This will be fun to track through the course of the 2018 season as PSU chases history.  Health plus maximized performances will be paramount for Penn State to break the record.