NCAA Seeds vs Reality: Iowa Grinds And Rises
NCAA Seeds vs Reality: Iowa Grinds And Rises
We're analyzing the team performances of all the top contenders at 2017 NCAA Wrestling Championships to see who stepped up last month in St. Louis and who came up short. Next up, the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Wrestling fans have high expectations for their teams heading into the NCAA Tournament each year. How each team's wrestlers are seeded plays a major role in setting those lofty hopes.
For this series, we're analyzing the team performances of all the top contenders at the 2017 tournament to see who stepped up last month in St. Louis and who came up short.
We tried to keep things as simple as possible. We ignored bonus points (but if an analysis of bonus points is what you're after, have no fear, we got you covered!). We also simplified the advancement points for ease of calculation. The actual advancement points may vary ever so slightly from the number we used depending on the round in which the wrestler entered the consolation bracket. We also ignored any projected advancement points for unseeded wrestlers, and, in order to balance that out, we also ignored any actual points form wrestlers that didn't advance passed the round of 24.
Also, if analysis isn't you're thing and you just want to stare at the team results, you can do that too!
But for those interested in the stats, here is a chart showing all of Iowa's qualifiers, where they were seeded, and what their results were at the 2017 NCAA Tournament.
Most pundits had Iowa pegged as a team trophy contender but not quite a title contender. A lot of things would have had to have broken Iowa's way for the Hawkeyes to compete for a championship. Instead, just a few things broke their way, while a couple other outcomes did not.
Iowa ended up in fourth place, having flirted with second throughout most of the tournament. Their 97 team points were just 13 off the pace of runner up Ohio State.
Fourth place may not feel like a great success for Iowa's inescapable championship-or-bust expectations, but five, top-four All-Americans is something the program hasn't accomplished since 2010, when they had five finalists. Iowa also claimed their first individual championship since 2014, a veritable drought by Iowa City standards.
Expectations must be tempered while standing in the shadow of the Dan Gable statue, nonetheless, four and a half points above the projected total is a very respectable result for anyone, even head coach Tom Brands and the lofty expectations he holds himself to.
Saturday was a pretty good day for Iowans in St. Louis. Four of the five Hawkeye All-Americans won their final placement match.
With regards to expected finishes, three of those All-Americans finished lower than their seed, while the other two finished higher.
Two Hawkeyes who missed the podium finished where they were projected to, while two other unseeded Iowa wrestlers advanced deep into the consolation rounds ahead of heir seeded competitors.
All in all, not a bad showing, even considering the ever-lofty expectations for the Sons of Gable, with the positives out weighing the negatives.
Probably the most disappointing loss for Hawkeye fans in St. Louis was when their no. 1 seed Thomas Gilman fell to the no. 4 seed, Lehigh's Darian Cruz, in the semifinals at 125 pounds. The Iowa senior entered the tournament undefeated and the favorite to win the title. Despite the setback, Gilman was able to regroup and power his way to a third place finish in convincing fashion, though not before dropping six and half team points from Iowa's total.
Making up that difference and more was fellow senior, Cory Clark, who upset the no. 1 and 2 seed on his way to a 133 pound championship. Clark's final collegiate victory gave him a storybook ending to a brilliant career in Iowa City. Clark also picked up seven and a half more team points than projected during his title run.
Also scoring more points than expected was Brandon Sorensen, who notched two upsets, both against the no. 3 seed, Ohio State's Micah Jordan, to claim third and an additional three and a half points, though many Hawkeye fans would likely challenge that upset label.
On the flipside, Michael Kemerer, the no. 2, was pinned via peterson in dramatic manner by Cornell's seventh seeded Dylan Palacio, ending the Iowa freshman's championship hopes. Kemerer was able to grind out a third place finish, though he fell one placement and two and a half points below expectations.
Senior Sammy Brooks likewise fell one spot short of his seeded finish when he was pinned by Nebraska's seventh seeded TJ Dudley in the third place bout. Brooks dropped a single point in that exchange.
Joey Gunther defied expectations by advancing to the round of 16 from an unseeded start, picking up an extra one and a half points along the way.
And finally, in one of the more intriguing developments in the whole tournament, freshman Cash Wilcke finished one victory shy of the podium, making the bloodround while being unseeded and scoring two extra points for the Hawkeyes. Wilcke did not qualify for the tournament at the Big Ten Tournament, nor did he recieve an initial at-large bid. However, when West Virginia's Jake Smith pulled out of the tournament due to injury, there was still time to add another wrestler, and Wilcke got the nod as the 34th 197 pounder to earn an NCAA bid.
The Hawkeyes are a force to be reckoned with, and Tom Brands and company did as good a job as anyone preparing their team to do battle in St. Louis.
Next year, Iowa will have to do without the services of two incredible athletes, Thomas Gilman and Cory Clark, who helped carry on the Iowa tradition of being the university for lightweights. The Hawkeyes will hopefully have a healthy Sam Stoll back at heavyweight and super recruit Spencer Lee potentially manning 125 pounds as a true freshman. We will see if those two and the rest of the returning hammers will be enough to to keep Iowa in the hunt for a team trophy in what portends to be a nerve wracking season for Hawkeye fans.
But before worrying about next year, why not enjoy one of the most fun moments of the year, as Cory Clark finally wins an NCAA title and then launches his coach in a lateral drop (at Brand's admitted behest), on the big stage in front of a packed Scottrade Center.
I truly feel for anyone who can't appreciate and enjoy a moment like that.
For this series, we're analyzing the team performances of all the top contenders at the 2017 tournament to see who stepped up last month in St. Louis and who came up short.
Now Up: Iowa Hawkeyes
We tried to keep things as simple as possible. We ignored bonus points (but if an analysis of bonus points is what you're after, have no fear, we got you covered!). We also simplified the advancement points for ease of calculation. The actual advancement points may vary ever so slightly from the number we used depending on the round in which the wrestler entered the consolation bracket. We also ignored any projected advancement points for unseeded wrestlers, and, in order to balance that out, we also ignored any actual points form wrestlers that didn't advance passed the round of 24.
Also, if analysis isn't you're thing and you just want to stare at the team results, you can do that too!
But for those interested in the stats, here is a chart showing all of Iowa's qualifiers, where they were seeded, and what their results were at the 2017 NCAA Tournament.
Most pundits had Iowa pegged as a team trophy contender but not quite a title contender. A lot of things would have had to have broken Iowa's way for the Hawkeyes to compete for a championship. Instead, just a few things broke their way, while a couple other outcomes did not.
Iowa ended up in fourth place, having flirted with second throughout most of the tournament. Their 97 team points were just 13 off the pace of runner up Ohio State.
Fourth place may not feel like a great success for Iowa's inescapable championship-or-bust expectations, but five, top-four All-Americans is something the program hasn't accomplished since 2010, when they had five finalists. Iowa also claimed their first individual championship since 2014, a veritable drought by Iowa City standards.
Iowa's Seed vs. Reality Score: +4.5
Expectations must be tempered while standing in the shadow of the Dan Gable statue, nonetheless, four and a half points above the projected total is a very respectable result for anyone, even head coach Tom Brands and the lofty expectations he holds himself to.
Saturday was a pretty good day for Iowans in St. Louis. Four of the five Hawkeye All-Americans won their final placement match.
With regards to expected finishes, three of those All-Americans finished lower than their seed, while the other two finished higher.
Two Hawkeyes who missed the podium finished where they were projected to, while two other unseeded Iowa wrestlers advanced deep into the consolation rounds ahead of heir seeded competitors.
All in all, not a bad showing, even considering the ever-lofty expectations for the Sons of Gable, with the positives out weighing the negatives.
So How'd They Do It?
Probably the most disappointing loss for Hawkeye fans in St. Louis was when their no. 1 seed Thomas Gilman fell to the no. 4 seed, Lehigh's Darian Cruz, in the semifinals at 125 pounds. The Iowa senior entered the tournament undefeated and the favorite to win the title. Despite the setback, Gilman was able to regroup and power his way to a third place finish in convincing fashion, though not before dropping six and half team points from Iowa's total.
Making up that difference and more was fellow senior, Cory Clark, who upset the no. 1 and 2 seed on his way to a 133 pound championship. Clark's final collegiate victory gave him a storybook ending to a brilliant career in Iowa City. Clark also picked up seven and a half more team points than projected during his title run.
Also scoring more points than expected was Brandon Sorensen, who notched two upsets, both against the no. 3 seed, Ohio State's Micah Jordan, to claim third and an additional three and a half points, though many Hawkeye fans would likely challenge that upset label.
On the flipside, Michael Kemerer, the no. 2, was pinned via peterson in dramatic manner by Cornell's seventh seeded Dylan Palacio, ending the Iowa freshman's championship hopes. Kemerer was able to grind out a third place finish, though he fell one placement and two and a half points below expectations.
Senior Sammy Brooks likewise fell one spot short of his seeded finish when he was pinned by Nebraska's seventh seeded TJ Dudley in the third place bout. Brooks dropped a single point in that exchange.
Joey Gunther defied expectations by advancing to the round of 16 from an unseeded start, picking up an extra one and a half points along the way.
And finally, in one of the more intriguing developments in the whole tournament, freshman Cash Wilcke finished one victory shy of the podium, making the bloodround while being unseeded and scoring two extra points for the Hawkeyes. Wilcke did not qualify for the tournament at the Big Ten Tournament, nor did he recieve an initial at-large bid. However, when West Virginia's Jake Smith pulled out of the tournament due to injury, there was still time to add another wrestler, and Wilcke got the nod as the 34th 197 pounder to earn an NCAA bid.
Conclusions
The Hawkeyes are a force to be reckoned with, and Tom Brands and company did as good a job as anyone preparing their team to do battle in St. Louis.
Next year, Iowa will have to do without the services of two incredible athletes, Thomas Gilman and Cory Clark, who helped carry on the Iowa tradition of being the university for lightweights. The Hawkeyes will hopefully have a healthy Sam Stoll back at heavyweight and super recruit Spencer Lee potentially manning 125 pounds as a true freshman. We will see if those two and the rest of the returning hammers will be enough to to keep Iowa in the hunt for a team trophy in what portends to be a nerve wracking season for Hawkeye fans.
But before worrying about next year, why not enjoy one of the most fun moments of the year, as Cory Clark finally wins an NCAA title and then launches his coach in a lateral drop (at Brand's admitted behest), on the big stage in front of a packed Scottrade Center.
I truly feel for anyone who can't appreciate and enjoy a moment like that.