By The Numbers: DT & Ruth vs. Bo & Nolf
By The Numbers: DT & Ruth vs. Bo & Nolf
Who would you rather have, David Taylor & Ed Ruth or Jason Nolf and Bo Nickal? We analyze the numbers.
Since the advent of the Cael Sanderson era, the Penn State wrestling program has been cranking out individual champions at an impressive clip. Since Sanderson assumed the helm of the Nittany Lions for the 2009-10 season, 11 individuals have won a total of 16 NCAA titles -- and counting.
Those incredible performances have helped PSU capture six of the last seven NCAA team championships. That kind of sustained excellence requires many special, talented wrestlers. Some would say you need a plethora of talented wrestlers. Some would also say that Penn State has indeed been blessed with a plethora of incredibly talented wrestlers.
More on Penn State: Schedule | Potential Lineup | Returning Points | 2018 NCAA Projection
As we look for ways to occupy our time until the season begins, we thought we might engage in some speculation as to which dynamic Nittany Lion duo might be more valuable: Ed Ruth and David Taylor or Jason Nolf and Bo Nickal.
Thankfully for Penn State fans, they don't have to choose. They got four years from Ruth and Taylor, and they got two from Nolf and Nickal, who both have two years of eligibility remaining.
As we only have two years of of data for Nickal and Nolf, we'll start the comparing and contrasting with just the first two years of Ruth and Taylor.
The Magic Man and Easy Ed came out of the gate swinging. Taylor only suffered one loss in his first two varsity campaigns, in the finals of the 2011 NCAAs at 157 pounds when Bubba Jenkins famously pinned him with a cradle. Ruth only suffered two losses: one by injury default to Stanford's Nick Amuchastegui in the quarterfinals of the 2011 NCAAs, after which Ruth famously battled back on an injured leg for third, and one to Maryland's Mike Letts, in a much less famous finals match at the 2010 Nittany Lion Open.
Watch Ed Ruth get revenge on Gabe Dean in the 2014 NCAA Tournament
Nolf and Nickal are tracking their senior compatriots very closely. Like their elders, neither Nolf nor Nickal won an NCAA title their freshman year. Nolf was taken out in the finals by Isaiah Martinez, against whom he also lost in the Big Ten finals. As a freshman, Nickal lost to Indiana's Nate Jackson and then to Myles Martin in the finals of the NCAAs at 174 pounds that same year. In his sophomore year, Nickal lost again to Martin in the Big Ten Tournament, though he still went on to win the 184-pound NCAA championship.
Watch Nolf win his first NCAA title over Joey Lavallee
Now let's see how Taylor and Ruth finished their vaunted Nittany Lion careers.
Ruth picked up two more 184-pound championships -- and a loss to future hammer Gabe Dean at the Southern Scuffle his senior year -- while Taylor grabbed one more title, getting stopped his junior year in both the Scuffle and the NCAA finals by superstar Kyle Dake at 165 pounds. Those career NCAA team-point totals also give either Taylor and Ruth arguments for being considered the second-best NCAA wrestler of all time.
Watch David Taylor beat Dylan Palacio in the quarterfinals of the 2014 Southern Scuffle
To get an idea of Nolf's and Nickal's career stats, we can simply double their two-year stats. This probably undershoots their eventual records, which is saying something given the pace they are on, so consider this a conservative estimate.
Though Nickal might see his nemesis Myles Martin six or more times in the next two years, it's difficult imagining Nickal losing three more times in his career. Likewise, it would not come as much of a shock if Nolf went undefeated to close out his career. The under/over for national championships between both wrestlers is also probably closer to three than two.
Watch Bo Nickal make his second consecutive NCAA finals with a pin over Sam Brooks at the 2017 NCAAs
Still, stranger things have happened, and if we were hypothetically drafting a set of wrestlers at the beginning of their careers, some may be tempted to take the proverbial bird in the hand and choose Taylor and Ruth and their higher guaranteed NCAA placements and team points. But for the more risk tolerant, Nolf and Nickal could have the higher payoff, with six NCAA championships in eight finals appearances being a real possibility.
But ultimately, the real choices were made years ago, when all four wrestlers decided to continue the academic and athletic careers in Happy Valley. For that, Penn State fans can be thankful, while everyone else will have to try and keep up.
Those incredible performances have helped PSU capture six of the last seven NCAA team championships. That kind of sustained excellence requires many special, talented wrestlers. Some would say you need a plethora of talented wrestlers. Some would also say that Penn State has indeed been blessed with a plethora of incredibly talented wrestlers.
More on Penn State: Schedule | Potential Lineup | Returning Points | 2018 NCAA Projection
As we look for ways to occupy our time until the season begins, we thought we might engage in some speculation as to which dynamic Nittany Lion duo might be more valuable: Ed Ruth and David Taylor or Jason Nolf and Bo Nickal.
Thankfully for Penn State fans, they don't have to choose. They got four years from Ruth and Taylor, and they got two from Nolf and Nickal, who both have two years of eligibility remaining.
As we only have two years of of data for Nickal and Nolf, we'll start the comparing and contrasting with just the first two years of Ruth and Taylor.
| NCAA Placements | Team Points | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Taylor | 2, 1 | 48 | 70-1 |
| Ed Ruth | 3, 1 | 44 | 69-2 |
Watch Ed Ruth get revenge on Gabe Dean in the 2014 NCAA Tournament
| NCAA Placements | Team Points | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Nolf | 2, 1 | 49 | 61-2 |
| Bo Nickal | 2, 1 | 45.5 | 59-3 |
Watch Nolf win his first NCAA title over Joey Lavallee
Now let's see how Taylor and Ruth finished their vaunted Nittany Lion careers.
| NCAA Placements | Team Points | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Taylor | 2, 1, 2, 1 | 99 | 134-3 |
| Ed Ruth | 3, 1, 1, 1 | 94.5 | 136-3 |
Watch David Taylor beat Dylan Palacio in the quarterfinals of the 2014 Southern Scuffle
To get an idea of Nolf's and Nickal's career stats, we can simply double their two-year stats. This probably undershoots their eventual records, which is saying something given the pace they are on, so consider this a conservative estimate.
| NCAA Placements | Team Points | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Nolf | 2, 1, 2, 1 | 98 | 122-4 |
| Bo Nickal | 2, 1, 2, 1 | 91 | 118-6 |
Watch Bo Nickal make his second consecutive NCAA finals with a pin over Sam Brooks at the 2017 NCAAs
Still, stranger things have happened, and if we were hypothetically drafting a set of wrestlers at the beginning of their careers, some may be tempted to take the proverbial bird in the hand and choose Taylor and Ruth and their higher guaranteed NCAA placements and team points. But for the more risk tolerant, Nolf and Nickal could have the higher payoff, with six NCAA championships in eight finals appearances being a real possibility.
But ultimately, the real choices were made years ago, when all four wrestlers decided to continue the academic and athletic careers in Happy Valley. For that, Penn State fans can be thankful, while everyone else will have to try and keep up.