When we last ran our computer simulator based on our top 20 individual rankings, Iowa was projected to finish in 10th place.  Penn State unsurprisingly came out as the preseason favorite, though Ohio State was not far behind the Nittany Lions. In fact, after simulating 10,000 NCAA tournaments with seeds based on the rankings, OSU hoisted a virtual championship trophy a little over 41 percent of the time, a hefty percentage, despite Penn State still being the victor in over half of our simulations.  

We are still a long way from the start of the 2017-18 NCAA DI season, let alone the national tournament in Cleveland, so one shouldn't read too much into the results. However, one team conspicuously absent from the top five finishers according to our simulator was Iowa. The Hawkeyes finished fourth in St. Louis at the end of last season, just high enough to snag a team trophy. The year before that Iowa finished fifth, the first time it missed the team podium since Tom Brands' first season as head coach in 2007. 

While it's too early to sound the alarms in Iowa City -- indeed, Brands recently received a contract extension -- many Hawkeyes fans are wondering what it's going to take for their team to win another trophy this season. 

Iowa currently sits 10th in our preseason team rankings. The Hawkeyes have fairly well-known ranked wrestlers at the following weights:

133 -- No. 20 Phil Laux
149 -- No. 2 Brandon Sorensen
157 -- No. 3 Michael Kemerer
285 -- No. 7 Sam Stoll

There's no guarantee everyone ends up matching those finishes in Cleveland -- in fact it's likely they finish either higher or lower -- however, those wrestlers all have pretty solid track records that suggest those are reasonable assumptions. 

That leaves over half the lineup with questions marks but also a lot of reasons to be optimistic. We'll run down those weights and find a "best case but still reasonable scenario," and then rerun the simulation with those new glass-half-full rankings while keeping everything else equal.  

How Iowa Can Snag A Trophy This Year

125 Pounds -- Spencer Lee's Redshirt Gets Pulled

Brands has proven loathe to wrestle true freshmen; however, a lack of other viable point-scoring options on the roster may force his hand. The 125 weight class is tough this year, with two returning national champions plus a healthy Nick Suriano, but a No. 3 seed from Lee, a three-world champion, falls under the definition of highly optimistic yet still plausible. 

141 Pounds -- Vince Turk Contends For All-American Status

Injuries kept Turk out of action for most of last season. Luckily the Hawkeyes had senior Topher Carton, who actually beat Turk 8-7 at the Midlands in 2016, to fill in. Turk had a very strong redshirt season though, including a win over 2017's 133-pound NCAA finalist Seth Gross. It wasn't enough to get Turk a ranking to start the season, but a bloodround finish and No. 10 ranking at the end of the year is not out of the question. 

165 Pounds -- Alex Marinelli Rises To The Top Tier

The 165 weight class is insanely deep and talented, with Vincenzo Joseph, IMar, and Logan Massa being as good a top three as you'll find. Big names such as Anthony Valencia and Chance Marsteller may both be out of the top eight at the end of the season. Still, it's not too far of a stretch to imagine blue-chip recruit Alex Marinelli bullying his way on to the podium. So as not to be too optimistic, we can assume a No. 6 seed for Marinelli, which will be tough in such a meat grinder of a weight but still very doable. 

174 Pounds -- Kaleb Young Proves Himself A Contender

The top three of 174 is as estimable as 165, with Mark Hall, BoJo, and Zahid Valencia headlining the weight. However, the back end is less intense, and there is room for sleepers to maneuver their way up the rankings. Young is already ranked at No. 20, and he has the ability to rise up through a tough but not impassable bottom half to earn a hypothetical No. 12 seed. 

184 Pounds -- Pat Downey Enrolls And Makes The Finals

We are not ruling a PDIII national championship out, but we are also allowing for the possibility that one of the two wrestlers at this weight class who has already won an NCAA title finds his way to the top of the podium again. The enigmatic Downey has proven he has talent for a No. 2 seed. Now he just needs to take care of his scholastic responsibilities and earn it. 

197 Pounds -- Cash Wilcke Doesn't Wait Until March

Wilcke was one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2017 NCAA Tournament. It took a last-minute scratch of West Virginia's Jake Smith for Wilcke to even make the field of 33. After almost missing the big dance, Wilcke ended up just missing the podium, losing in the round of 12. This year, if Wilcke can earn a top eight seed, we'll just say No. 8 for now, he can eschew Cinderella status and make his All-American attempt a little easier on himself. 
We can now run our new rankings through our wrestling Compu-bot 3000 and get the following new and Hawkeye-approved simulated NCAA tournament graph. 



Our new simulated NCAA championship graph is likely much more palatable to our readers of the Hawkeye persuasion. 

After 10,000 simulated tournaments, Iowa's most likely finish, after its "best case but still plausible" seeds are entered, is third. Michigan and Oklahoma State are right on the Hawkeyes' heels, so even if things go exceedingly well for Iowa, it will likely be in a dogfight for a trophy. Still, this is an encouraging result for Brands and company. 

The average Hawkeyes team score in our simulation is 87, and in 50 percent of the simulations Iowa scored between 76 and 99 team points. 

Obviously, none of this analysis has any effect on how things will actually play out. But if you're looking for something to do between now and when the season starts, the harmless speculation certainly isn't hurting anything either. 

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