Bo Time? 174 NCAA Preview And Predictions
Bo Time? 174 NCAA Preview And Predictions
174-pound NCAA 2016 wrestling previews and predictions.
This weight really snuck up on me. With Bo Nickal and Myles Martin headed up, I thought it'd be a little weaker than last year. It might actually be just as good, if not better. It was difficult to simply narrow down a list of title contenders. What I think we have with this weight are probably around 10, maybe more, guys who are all capable of beating one another. There is some separation, but it's slight.
Zahid Valencia takes out Josh Asper last December:
Title Contenders:
Bo Jordan, Ohio State
Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
Kyle Crutchmer, Oklahoma State
Brian Realbuto, Cornell
Zach Epperly, Virginia Tech
Nathan Jackson, Indiana
There are a few different ways to look at this. Personally, I think there's a divide in consistency and experience that necessitates where I draw the line. The name that could stick out I suppose is Zahid Valencia. I'm all in on him. His freestyle season answered any questions you could have. Some freestyle success can be taken with a grain of salt, but if you watch the matches and see how he's winning, there's no reason to keep him off this list. The remaining five on the list have all established themselves as elite, consistent competitors with strong track records of winning.
CP's NCAA Predictions
1. Bo Jordan, Ohio State
2. Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
3. Zach Epperly, Virginia Tech
4. Kyle Crutchmer, Oklahoma State
5. Nathan Jackson, Indiana
6. Brian Realbuto, Cornell
7. Taylor Lujan, UNI
8. Nick Reenan, NC State
Round of 12: Lelund Weatherspoon, Iowa State; Zac Brunson, Illinois; Casey Kent, Penn; Alex Meyer, Iowa
In two years (really three, if you count his redshirt season), Bo Jordan has only fallen to Alex Dieringer and his cousin, Isaac Jordan. He's notched wins over Daniel Lewis and Nick Sulzer, among others. Jordan is a fantastic top wrestler and uses great pressure from hand-fighting and pulling on the head to set up strong, efficient leg attacks. His bottom wrestling will always make me a bit nervous, but look at this field: Where is the elite rider/turner? I think the move up will help his activity level as well. I'm as confident in this pick as I am others, but I think it's safe and representative of Bo's talent and consistency over the years.
Bo Jordan and Daniel Lewis had a classic battle for third last year:
I'd be lying if I didn't say I had a suspicion Zahid Valencia could win this whole thing, and that I think he matches up pretty well against Bo. Zahid's incredible single leg would go to Bo's heavy lead leg. However, even if Zahid were able to earn a takedown, going seven minutes with Bo is a tough question to answer. Zahid has incredible escapability when you attack his legs, especially in folkstyle. Getting two hands locked on a leg against him is very difficult, and even if you can, your problems have only begun. Combine that with a strong ability to ride and maybe the best leg attack in the field (his swing single), I think you've got a strong case for a freshman superstar.
Zach Epperly is a fairly safe pick to place, though his placement could go a number of directions. I picked him over Kyle Crutchmer in this spot for a few reasons. For one, he already has a head to head win. Beyond that, I think he's got more paths to victory. He can get to legs well, but he's also got really stingy defense that allows for go behinds and scores from front head. On the mat he is a requisite rider and can turn as well. He's now 2 for 2 in March in terms of putting it all together. Three for three is looking very possible, but this field could have more landmines than ever.
Crutch-daddy could very well play spoiler to the Bo/Zahid final. He's perhaps the best combo of power, speed, and variety of attacks from neutral we have in this field. Unfortunately, we didn't get to see him go against the entire field last year when his season was cut short due to injury. His paths to victory are pretty narrow -- he's not going to win because of his mat game. It all rides on his offense. Lucky for him, his offense is dang good.
Nathan Jackson was one of last years breakout stars in NCAA wrestling. He was more than just the Bo Nickal win, however. He showed an elite ability at getting to legs with some interesting counter ability as well. He continues to improve, placing fifth at NCAAs last year. I don't think fifth is his ceiling, but I see him finishing in that realm.
Brian Realbuto is a name that has rung out for years, but despite his success his first two years, his wins haven't been immaculate. Even going back to the year he made the finals, his best wins were over Mitch Minotti (who is very inconsistent) and Dylan Ness. You can count the Ian Miller quarterfinal, but I won't. Last year, Realbuto's only win over an All-American was Casey Kent. He also beat a quality Blaise Butler. I don't think it's the weight that prohibited Realbuto from having success, but there's mounting evidence that he's very good but possibly not elite. In spite of all that, he's probably the best scrambler and turner in this weight and his high crotch is excellent as well.
Yeah, I'm gettin a little reckless here it may seem, but when you consider how often we've seen the youth turn it on late, it shouldn't be that jarring. I am very excited to watch Nick Reenan wrestle at a weight where he'll actually weigh as much as the competition. A novel concept. Reenan is outstanding in the hand-fight and dangerous upper body. He'll need his leg attacks to improve, but his overall skill set and athleticism give me confidence.
I think Taylor Lujan will become a fan favorite this year. He's elite on top and has incredible feel in scrambles. Additionally, his big move potential will make him a threat against many of the major players at 174. Major motor + athleticism + multiple paths to victory = Freshman All-American. At least in my mind. We'll get an early look at how Lujan stacks up against Epperly of Virginia Tech.
The 174-pound class could be the best round of 12 of any weight -- I don't even have a guy of Ethan Ramos' caliber making the cut. Let me say first of all that having three All-Americans outside of the top eight is pretty rare. However, this is a weight where I see Nos. 5-13 cannibalizing themselves. Whoever is in the round of 12 or is that 13th guy will be overqualified for that spot, but there they'll be in March. My predictions have high potential to be completely turned on their heads, starting with my champion pick on down.
Other guys I have high opinions of include Johny Sebastian, Shakur Rasheed (or Matt McCutcheon, perhaps?), Matt Reed (watch for the Keith Gavin effect) and the aforementioned Ramos.
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Zahid Valencia takes out Josh Asper last December:
Title Contenders:
Bo Jordan, Ohio StateZahid Valencia, Arizona State
Kyle Crutchmer, Oklahoma State
Brian Realbuto, Cornell
Zach Epperly, Virginia Tech
Nathan Jackson, Indiana
There are a few different ways to look at this. Personally, I think there's a divide in consistency and experience that necessitates where I draw the line. The name that could stick out I suppose is Zahid Valencia. I'm all in on him. His freestyle season answered any questions you could have. Some freestyle success can be taken with a grain of salt, but if you watch the matches and see how he's winning, there's no reason to keep him off this list. The remaining five on the list have all established themselves as elite, consistent competitors with strong track records of winning.
CP's NCAA Predictions
1. Bo Jordan, Ohio State2. Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
3. Zach Epperly, Virginia Tech
4. Kyle Crutchmer, Oklahoma State
5. Nathan Jackson, Indiana
6. Brian Realbuto, Cornell
7. Taylor Lujan, UNI
8. Nick Reenan, NC State
Round of 12: Lelund Weatherspoon, Iowa State; Zac Brunson, Illinois; Casey Kent, Penn; Alex Meyer, Iowa
In two years (really three, if you count his redshirt season), Bo Jordan has only fallen to Alex Dieringer and his cousin, Isaac Jordan. He's notched wins over Daniel Lewis and Nick Sulzer, among others. Jordan is a fantastic top wrestler and uses great pressure from hand-fighting and pulling on the head to set up strong, efficient leg attacks. His bottom wrestling will always make me a bit nervous, but look at this field: Where is the elite rider/turner? I think the move up will help his activity level as well. I'm as confident in this pick as I am others, but I think it's safe and representative of Bo's talent and consistency over the years.
Bo Jordan and Daniel Lewis had a classic battle for third last year:
I'd be lying if I didn't say I had a suspicion Zahid Valencia could win this whole thing, and that I think he matches up pretty well against Bo. Zahid's incredible single leg would go to Bo's heavy lead leg. However, even if Zahid were able to earn a takedown, going seven minutes with Bo is a tough question to answer. Zahid has incredible escapability when you attack his legs, especially in folkstyle. Getting two hands locked on a leg against him is very difficult, and even if you can, your problems have only begun. Combine that with a strong ability to ride and maybe the best leg attack in the field (his swing single), I think you've got a strong case for a freshman superstar.
Zach Epperly is a fairly safe pick to place, though his placement could go a number of directions. I picked him over Kyle Crutchmer in this spot for a few reasons. For one, he already has a head to head win. Beyond that, I think he's got more paths to victory. He can get to legs well, but he's also got really stingy defense that allows for go behinds and scores from front head. On the mat he is a requisite rider and can turn as well. He's now 2 for 2 in March in terms of putting it all together. Three for three is looking very possible, but this field could have more landmines than ever.
Crutch-daddy could very well play spoiler to the Bo/Zahid final. He's perhaps the best combo of power, speed, and variety of attacks from neutral we have in this field. Unfortunately, we didn't get to see him go against the entire field last year when his season was cut short due to injury. His paths to victory are pretty narrow -- he's not going to win because of his mat game. It all rides on his offense. Lucky for him, his offense is dang good.
Nathan Jackson was one of last years breakout stars in NCAA wrestling. He was more than just the Bo Nickal win, however. He showed an elite ability at getting to legs with some interesting counter ability as well. He continues to improve, placing fifth at NCAAs last year. I don't think fifth is his ceiling, but I see him finishing in that realm.
Brian Realbuto is a name that has rung out for years, but despite his success his first two years, his wins haven't been immaculate. Even going back to the year he made the finals, his best wins were over Mitch Minotti (who is very inconsistent) and Dylan Ness. You can count the Ian Miller quarterfinal, but I won't. Last year, Realbuto's only win over an All-American was Casey Kent. He also beat a quality Blaise Butler. I don't think it's the weight that prohibited Realbuto from having success, but there's mounting evidence that he's very good but possibly not elite. In spite of all that, he's probably the best scrambler and turner in this weight and his high crotch is excellent as well.
Yeah, I'm gettin a little reckless here it may seem, but when you consider how often we've seen the youth turn it on late, it shouldn't be that jarring. I am very excited to watch Nick Reenan wrestle at a weight where he'll actually weigh as much as the competition. A novel concept. Reenan is outstanding in the hand-fight and dangerous upper body. He'll need his leg attacks to improve, but his overall skill set and athleticism give me confidence.
I think Taylor Lujan will become a fan favorite this year. He's elite on top and has incredible feel in scrambles. Additionally, his big move potential will make him a threat against many of the major players at 174. Major motor + athleticism + multiple paths to victory = Freshman All-American. At least in my mind. We'll get an early look at how Lujan stacks up against Epperly of Virginia Tech.
The 174-pound class could be the best round of 12 of any weight -- I don't even have a guy of Ethan Ramos' caliber making the cut. Let me say first of all that having three All-Americans outside of the top eight is pretty rare. However, this is a weight where I see Nos. 5-13 cannibalizing themselves. Whoever is in the round of 12 or is that 13th guy will be overqualified for that spot, but there they'll be in March. My predictions have high potential to be completely turned on their heads, starting with my champion pick on down.
Other guys I have high opinions of include Johny Sebastian, Shakur Rasheed (or Matt McCutcheon, perhaps?), Matt Reed (watch for the Keith Gavin effect) and the aforementioned Ramos.
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