A Realistic Look At Every MFS World Teamer's Chances Of Winning A Medal
A Realistic Look At Every MFS World Teamer's Chances Of Winning A Medal
How I see all 10 men's freestylers stacking up against the World's top international wrestlers.
I would like to start off this article by saying that I hope Team USA goes 10 for 10 at Worlds and dominates the entire way and that USA Wrestling has become so good in the past handful of years that just making the team automatically makes you a medal threat at the World Championships. Look at how many medalists are sitting home this year. That being said, I’m trying to provide information to help fans set realistic expectations. At weights where I did not predict a gold medal, I’m not saying that wrestler isn’t capable, just looking at data including past results and international fields.
I’m also operating under the assumption that Russia and Belarus will not be in attendance. While there have been some mixed signals from the IOC and several months for things to change, I do not expect them to compete at the Senior World Championships at this time. And if they do, it obviously becomes much more difficult to win a medal.
57 kg: Zane Richards
Likelihood of medaling: 50/50
Top International Guys
Zelimkhan Abakarov, ALB
Rei Higuchi, JPN
Stevan Micic, SRB
Gulomjon Abdullaev, UZB
Ravi Kumar, IND
Aliabbas Rzazade, AZE
Suleyman Atli, TUR
If you would have asked me this question two months ago, I would have said no way Zane Richards medals at the World Championships. For one, I would have said there was no way he was going to make the World Team. A lot can change in two months, however.
Now six years removed from his college career, all of the time and trust Richards has put into the Illinois coaching staff has paid off and he’s hot at the right time. If you beat Thomas Gilman, you are no doubt a threat to bring home a medal. However, I can’t get Richard’s complete body of work out of my head. Earlier this year in February Richards lost to who I expect to be both the Japanese and Indian backups at the Zagreb Ranking Series.
As an Olympic weight the year before the Olympics, 57 kg is going to be stacked with talent that would sometimes be up at 61 kg or not competing at all. It's a different ballgame when you aren't just game planning for one individual like at Final X but an entire field. Richards is going to have a fight in every match.
Prediction: 5th place
61 kg: Vito Arujau
Likelihood of medaling: pretty good
Top International Guys
Taiyrbek Zhumashbek Uulu, KGZ
Arsen Harutyunyan, ARM
Reza Atri, IRI
Narankhuu Narmandakh, MGL
Nobody is hotter in the US right now than Vito Arujua. An OW performance at NCAAs in March, a US Open title in April, and his first Senior World Team in June. Vito has shown flashes of excellence, but this year up at 133 lbs/61 kg, he appears to have finally found consistency. It’s something he touched on in his post Final X interview.
Watch Vito talk about finding consistency in 2023 below.
That being said, Vito’s wrestling style makes me nervous. The way Vito is wrestling, I’m putting him right up there with the best in the world at 61 kg in a two-match series, but he gave up 15 points in his two Final X matches. At the end of the day you can give up as many points as you want as long as you score more, but the shootout game is a dangerous game to play when you have to win every match to earn gold.
As hot as Vito has been domestically, Taiyrbek Zhumashbek Uulu has been just as hot internationally. The Kyrgyzstani wrestler has wins over Harutyunyan (world medalist), Markovych, Lomtadze (world champ), Nick Lee, Anthony Ashnault, and Matt Kolodzik to name a few.
Prediction: Silver
65 kg: Nick Lee
Likelihood of medaling: unlikely
Top International Guys
Takuto Otoguro, JPN
Rahman Amouzad, IRI
Tulga Tumur-Ochir, MGL
Haji Aliyev, AZE
Abdulmazhid Kudiev, TJK
Ismail Musukaev, HUN
Bajrang Punia, IND
Vazgen Tevanyan, ARM
Alejandro Valdes, CUB
I understand that Yianni Diakomihalis won a silver medal last year and that Nick Lee just beat Yianni two matches to none, but 65 kg is the toughest weight in the world and is going to be close to its peak form in a pre-Olympic year. Lee and the NLWC staff had weeks to gameplan for just Yianni, but it's a different ball game when you have to prepare for an entire field.
Look how easily Ismail Musukaev tech falled Nick Lee earlier this year at the Zagreb Ranking Series tournament. And remember that Musukaev has barely been able to win two bronze medals in his very long career.
65 kg is just too deep and Nick Lee gives up too many points.
Prediction: 1-1
70 kg: Zain Retherford
Likelihood of medaling: likely
Top International Guys
Syrbaz Talgat, KAZ
Ernazar Akmatalie, KGZ
Ramazan Ramazanov, BUL
Amir Yazdani, IRI
Zain Retherford proved himself by bringing home silver from Worlds last year. That was no fluke, and if you take into consideration the news from Kozak below, expectations on Retherford have never been higher.
Taishi Narikuni, the 70kg 2022 world champ is competing in Greco at 67kg in Japan's upcoming Emperor's Cup.
— Jon Kozak (@KozakJon) June 13, 2023
That means he will not be at this year's Worlds in freestyle making Zain Retherford the gold medal favorite.
Retherford is going to be in some tight matches and I expect a scare or two. He isn’t a lock for a medal like some of his World Team teammates. He has to be consistent for a while longer before he gets that tag, but this could be his year.
Prediction: Gold
74 kg: Kyle Dake
Likelihood of medaling: lock
Top International Guys
Tajmuraz Salkazanov, SVK
Frank Chamizo, ITA
Younes Emami, IRI
Avtandil Kentchadze, GEO
Barring injury or some unforeseen freak accident, Kyle Dake is going to bring home a medal. It would be surprising if he didn’t win gold, but shocking if he didn’t medal. He only has one international loss in the past five years, and even then, he brought home bronze. The guys just beat Jason Nolf in two-straight matches without giving up a point. He has shown no signs of regression and has beaten the top guys he will see in Serbia.
Prediction: Gold
79 kg: Chance Marsteller
Likelihood of medaling: high
Top International Guys
Ali Savadkouhi, IRI
Vasyl Mykhailov, UKR
Daulet Yergesh, KAZ
I have a great amount of confidence in Chance Marsteller bringing home a medal from Belgrade. “He can’t do it on the World stage.” “He’s just a bad matchup for Burroughs.” “He’s too one-dimensional.” Nope. Forget all that talk. If beating Burroughs at Final X didn’t convince you, he’s already beaten who I expect to be the best wrestler in the field at Worlds - Ali Savadkouhi of Iran. That’s the Iranian that beat Burroughs at the World Cup. Marsteller beat him in July of last year.
Watch Chance Marsteller beat Ali Savadkouhi below.
That being said, Savadkouhi isn’t even a lock to make the Iranian team. Also, Marsteller hasn't gone unblemished recently either. Since beating Savadkouhi, Marsteller has lost to both Amirhossein Kavousi, who is either 2nd or 3rd on the Iranian 79 kg ladder. He also lost to Avtendil Kentchadze of Georgia at the same event he lost to Kavousi, but he’ll go back down to 74 kg for Worlds.
It helps Marsteller that outside of Iran, 79 kg isn’t a very deep weight.
Prediction: Silver
86 kg: David Taylor
Likelihood of medaling: lock
Top International Guys
Hassan Yazdani, IRI
Dauren Kurugliev, GRE
Hayato Ishiguro, JPN
David Taylor is as much a lock to medal as anyone on the team. He looked the best he ever has at Worlds last year when he beat Iranian rival Hassan Yazdani 7-1 and showed no signs of regression against Aaron Brooks at Final X. Yazdani did beat Taylor at the 2021 World Championships, but as long as the 2022 Worlds/2023 Final X version of Taylor shows up, I don’t see that happening again.
Prediction: Gold
92 kg: Zahid Valencia
Likelihood of medaling: pretty high
Top International Guys
Kamran Ghasempour, IRI
Feyzullah Akturk, Akturk
Osman Nurmagomedov, AZE
Arash Yoshida, JPN
Zahid Valencia is interesting because we’ve only seen him at 92 kg twice, and never seen him compete there internationally. The way he dominated at the World Team Trials Challenge Tournament and Final X, combined with the fact he has three more months to acclimate to the weight, and I’m feeling good about Zahid’s chances in Belgrade.
The top couple guys at 92 kg are pretty solid. I like Zahid, but would give him little chance against Iran’s 2X World champ Kamran Ghasempour. However, I would be surprised if Valencia doesn’t pick up a couple of wins at this non Olympic weight.
Prediction: bronze
97 kg: Kyle Snyder
Likelihood of medaling: lock
Top International Guys
Mohammad Mohammadian, IRI
Givi Matcharashvili, GEO
Magomedkhan Magomedov, AZE
Akhmed Tazhudinov, BRN
Magomed Ibragimov, UZB
Kyle Snyder has been the staple of consistency for Team USA. He has never gone to the World/Olympic Championships and not medaled. Probably Snyder’s top competition will be Mohammad Mohammadian of Iran. And while Mohammadian did beat Snyder once in 2020, Kyle beat him 4-1 at Worlds last year. And with Mohammadian losing in the bronze match, there is a small chance Iran goes with Mojtaba Goleij or Amirali Azarpira as their rep.
Kyle Snyder not winning would be surprising - him not medaling is unfathomable.
Prediction: Gold
125 kg: Gable Steveson
Likelihood of medaling: extremely high
Top International Guys
Taha Akgul, TUR
Amir Zare, IRI
Geno Petriashvili, GEO
Giorgi Meshvilidishvili, AZE
Fair or not, the only reason I didn’t put Gable Steveson as a lock to medal at the World Championships is that his par terre defense makes me nervous and 125 kg has some heavy hitters at the top (pun intended). Unlike guys like Dake, Taylor, and Snyder, Steveson has only gone on one World/Olympic run. And don’t forget, Petriashvili gutted Gable twice and it took one of the most iconic comebacks in Olympic wrestling history for Gable to win. That being said, I’m sure Gable is still one of the greatest wrestlers I’ve been blessed to watch compete in person.
Prediction: Gold