Projecting Penn State's Future Lineups
Projecting Penn State's Future Lineups
What might the Nittany Lions wrestling team's starting ten look like over the next four years? We peer into the future of Cale Sanderson's Penn State teams.
One of the many ancillary benefits of being in the midst of a collegiate wrestling dynasty spanning more than a decade is Penn State being able to plan their long-term lineup strategy from a position of great strength. And from that position of strength, head coach Cael Sanderson is able to advantageously recruit the top talent available in both high school and the transfer portal at every weight class.
So what do the defending 2023 NCAA wrestling champions have to do to continue their dynastic run in the near future? As it turns out, not much.
The Nittany Lions return eight starters from last season, including three freshmen All-Americans. But that doesn’t have to stop us from looking ahead anyway and identifying future needs that Coach Sanderson may advantageously recruit from that position of strength he’s constructed over the last 14 years.
We can start by looking at next year’s projected lineup along with a select number of alternates and projected future starters at each weight. Adjacent to each student-athlete that we expect to see in a Nittany Lion singlet in the near future is their highest NCAA finish, or, if they've yet to wrestle at the NCAAs, their recruiting class ranking of the year they graduated high school.
2023-24
- 125: Robert Howard SO (R16) or Kurt McHenry JR (#37 2019 BB)
- Luke Lilledahl HS (#2 2024 BB)
- 133: Aaron Nagao SO (5th)
- Braeden Davis TRFR (#42 2023 BB)
- Mason Gibson HS (#8 2024 BB)
- 141: Beau Bartlett JR (3rd)
- 149: Shayne Van Ness SO (3rd)
- 157: Levi Haines SO (2nd)
- Tyler Kasak TRFR (#10 2023 BB)
- 165: Alex Facundo SO (R16) or Mitchell Mesenbrink FR (#18 2022 BB)
- Joseph Sealey HS (#5 2024 BB)
- 174: Carter Starocci JR (1st)
- Josh Barr TRFR (#7 2023 BB)
- 184: Bernie Truax SR (4th)
- Zach Ryder HS (#6 2024 BB)
- 197: Aaron Brooks SR (1st)
- Connor Mirasola HS (#9 2024 BB)
- 285: Greg Kerkvliet JR (2nd)
- Cole Mirasola HS (#18 2024 BB)
Thanks to some perspicacious handling of the transfer portal, the Nittany Lions will plug two weight classes with seasoned All-Americans, as Aaron Nagao and Bernie Truax will join Penn State in the fall, coming from Minnesota and Cal Poly respectively.
PSU will be without the services of Roman Bravo-Young, a two-time national champ and four-time All-American at 133, and four-time All-American Max Dean at 197, as both are out of eligibility. Nagao will slot in at 133 and Truax will bump down from 197 to 184. Truax placed fourth at NCAAs in 2023 at 197, fourth at the 2022 NCAAs at 184, and fourth at 2021 NCAAs at 174. Necessitating that move back to 184 is Aaron Brooks, who is expected to bump up to 197 next season.
Watch Truax win the Tiger Style Invite over Jaxon Smith:
That lineup gives PSU a top 5 finisher or better in eight of 10 weights. It also only leaves two weights with significant question marks.
Nittany Lion faithful will have two proverbial “good problems” as both 125 and 165 will have multiple podium contenders vying for one spot in the lineup.
At 125 the hope in Happy Valley is that Robbie Howard is healthy and able to start for the first time since the covid-shortened 2021 season, where Howard finished in the Round of 16 at the NCAA tournament as a true freshman. Another potential starter for the lead-off spot is Kurt McHenry, who also joins the Nittany Lions via the transfer portal. McHenry was a U17 world gold medalist in 2016 and 2017 and spent the last four seasons with the Michigan Wolverines.
We will also likely see a roster battle at 165, where Mitchell Mesebrink, who spent one semester at California Baptist before transferring to Penn State, will challenge Alex Facundo, the incumbent who finished in the round of 16 last season as a redshirt freshman. Both wrestlers have international age-level medals. Facundo earned a pair of U17 bronze medals and Mesenbrink won a silver at least year’s U20 World Championship. Mensebrink is also on the 2023 U20 freestyle world team that competes this summer in Poland.
Watch Mesenbrink make the 2023 U20 world team with a tech-fall over Hunter Garvin:
It’s far too early to say who the favorite at either weight will be, but the upshot is the Blue and White will – barring injuries – have a high quality rep at every weight.
The 2024-25 lineup will probably look a lot like 2023-24, as just two Nittany Lions run out of eligibility after the 2024 NCAAs: Aaron Brooks and Bernie Truax at 184 and 197. This makes the lineup projection relatively simple.
2024-25
- 125: Robert Howard JR or Kurt McHenry SR or Luke Lilledahl TRFR
- 133: Aaron Nagao JR or Braeden Davis FR or Mason Gibson TRFR
- 141: Beau Bartlett SR or David Evans SR
- 149: Shayne Van Ness JR or Connor Pierce SO
- 157: Levi Haines JR or Tyler Kasak FR
- 165: Alex Facundo JR or Mitchell Mesenbrink SO or Joseph Sealey TRFR
- 174: Carter Starocci SR or Josh Barr FR
- 184: Zach Ryder TRFR or Donovan Ball SR
- 197: Connor Mirasola TRFR or Lucas Cochran JR
- 285: Greg Kerkvliet SR (2nd) or Cole Mirasola TRFR
A weight class change from one of the veterans would not be surprising but it’s more likely that no one bumps up from Van Ness on down the line, as the middleweights are already getting crowded at this point.
Keeping in mind that we're fully engaged in speculation, consider the possibility that we see Haines up at 165 and Mesenbrink down at 157. It’s also no sure thing either starts, as they will probably be challenged by blue chip recruits Joe Sealey and Tyler Kasak at those two weights respectively. And of course we can't count out Alex Facundo, who will also be in the mix, most likely still at 165.
Starocci has said he may not use his final year of eligibility, even though is possible to him to enter the season with a chance to win an unprecedented fifth NCAA title. His absence in the lineup would open up a spot for another blue-chip recruit in Michigan native Josh Barr, or for one of the aforementioned wrestlers to bump up.
Watch highlights of Barr's come-from-behind win over rival Rocco Welsh in the 2022 Fargo Junior finals:
It’s theoretically possible Starocci or Barr bumps up to 184, which would add more competition to Zach Ryder and or Connor Mirasola, as they are the next likeliest candidates to assume the 184 starting job, although Mirasola could also be in pole position to start at 197.
Things get murkier as we look ahead to 2025-26 and beyond.
2025-26
- 125: Robert Howard SR or Luke Lilledahl FR
- 133: Aaron Nagao SR or Braeden Davis SO or Mason Gibson FR
- 141: TBD
- 149: Shayne Van Ness SR or Connor Pierce JR
- 157: Levi Haines SR or Tyler Kasak SO
- 165: Alex Facundo SR or Mitchell Mesenbrink JR or Joseph Sealey FR
- 174: Josh Barr SO
- 184: Zach Ryder FR
- 197: Connor Mirasola FR or Lucas Cochran SR
- 285: Cole Mirasola FR
The lower and middle weights stay congested, as Lilledahl and Gibson are now eligible to enter the fray (though deferring eligibility through red (or grey) shirts is not impossible). Between those two, Howard and Nagao, who will each have a year of eligibility left, 125 through 141 should be in good, to-be-decided, hands.
There is less relief for the logjam in the upperweights, as only Kerkvliet runs out of eligibility and Cole Mirasola will already be there waiting to claim the heavyweight job. So eight contenders, Haines, Kasak, Facundo, Mesenbrink, Sealey, Barr, Ryder and Connor Mirasola, will still be battling it out for six spots.
And that’s assuming that no one else joins the team via the transfer portal or as an incoming freshman from the high school classes of 2024 or 2025.
Looking ahead one ore year might reveal the following lineup:
2026-27
- 125: Luke Lilledahl SO
- 133: Braeden Davis JR or Mason Gibson SO
- 141: TBD
- 149: Connor Pierce SR
- 157: Tyler Kasak JR
- 165: Mitchell Mesenbrink SR
- 174: Josh Barr JR
- 184: Zach Ryder SO
- 197: Connor Mirasola SO
- 285: Cole Mirasola SO
Things finally clear out for just about all the current committed recruits to find a spot in the lineup, although it’s a near certainty that we will see some other changes to the roster between now and then, both from wrestlers leaving and joining the team via the transfer portal, and from incoming high schoolers.
So where, if anywhere, should Penn State focus their recruiting efforts going forward? The glib answer is ‘anywhere they want’, but that’s also the serious answer. Call it a luxury of winning, or the payoff due from the work put into the program, but regardless, winning 10 out of the last 12 NCAA titles (or 13 out of the last 15 by this point) has its advantages.
Whether you're in high school or college, if you're looking to join a new program there’s a decent chance you are going to entertain the possibility of joining the winningest college team over the last decade and a half. That’s how dynasties work.
As it stands now, Penn State essentially has every weight covered for the next four years. Trying to name any potential targets would be borderline reckless speculation, so we’ll wait until a specific weight opens up for whatever reason before trying to provide any guesses.
Until then, our projection for the Nittany Lions is a lot of wins.