Three-time national champion Carter Starocci suffered an untimely knee injury in his final match of the regular season last Sunday after recording a tech fall victory over Edinboro’s Joey Arnold. At this time, Starocci’s status is still unknown and because of this, we’ll dive into some of the biggest questions surrounding Starocci heading into the postseason. 

Will Carter Starocci Wrestle At The Big 10 Tournament?

For Starocci to qualify for the NCAA Tournament, he’ll have to enter the Big Ten Tournament taking place March 9-10. However, the question isn’t whether or not he’ll be in the bracket at Big 10s, it’s whether or not he’ll wrestle. There’s been a trend in recent years where wrestlers dealing with injuries enter the conference tournament to be eligible to qualify for NCAAs, but then medical forfeit out without wrestling a match. Penn State fans might remember Nick Suriano taking this route at the 2017 Big Ten Tournament.

If Starocci takes the medical forfeit route, he’ll need an at-large bid to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. With a 12-0 record and ranked wins over #5 Patrick Kennedy, #13 Rocco Welsh, #8 Nick Incontrera, and #20 Bubba Wilson, Starocci is almost guaranteed an at-large bid. That means if Starocci’s knee injury is serious enough, medical forfeiting out of the Big Ten Tournament might be a good option for him to give him an extra two weeks of rest before NCAAs.

Where Will Starocci Be Seeded At NCAAs If He Forfeits?

Despite being a 3-time NCAA champion, Starocci will not be the #1 seed if he forfeits out of the Big 10 Tournament. Seeding at the NCAA Tournament follows a criteria that is based solely on this year’s competition and the following criterion:

• Head-to-Head Competition = 25%
• Quality Wins = 20%
• Conference Tournament Placement = 15%
• Coaches Rank = 10%
• Results vs. Common Opponents = 10%
• Win Percentage = 10%
• RPI = 10%

With the new rule change that counts medical forfeits as losses, Starocci’s seeding strength will take a major hit in several of the above categories. We could write an entire article breaking down Starocci’s projected seed for NCAAs if he forfeits out of Big 10s. However, to keep things simple, Starocci will likely be seeded anywhere from 3rd-6th at NCAAs if he forfeits out of the Big 10 tournament without wrestling a match.

How Could A Medical Forfeit Impact Starocci’s Hodge Chances?

Carter Starocci is currently ranked #1 in our pound-for-pound rankings and is a front-runner to win the Hodge Trophy. He’s currently 12-0 on the season with 11 of his wins coming by bonus points - 3 pins, 6 techs, 1 major, and 1 medical forfeit. However, if Starocci forfeits out of the Big 10 tournament, he’ll officially have 2 losses on his record. Even if he goes on to win an NCAA Title, the Hodge voters could potentially hold those “losses” against him, especially if Aaron Brooks finishes the year undefeated and wins his 4th NCAA title. The Hodge trophy is likely not the main focus for Starocci right now. However, it’s still fascinating to think he could achieve the incredible task of becoming a 4-time NCAA champion and still not win a Hodge Trophy. 

Who’s A Title Contender If Starocci Isn’t 100%?

Before the injury, Starocci might have been the biggest “lock” to win an NCAA title as any wrestler in the country. If Starocci isn’t 100% at the NCAA Tournament, it opens the door for other top wrestlers at 174 pounds. So who are the main contenders after Carter Starocci? 

From my perspective, it’s clear that Mekhi Lewis and Shane Griffith could benefit most from Starocci being less than 100?. Lewis and Griffith are currently ranked #2 and #3 respectively at 174 and are past national champions looking to end their college careers on top of the podium. Though Lewis lost to Starocci at the NWCA All-Star Classic, he has been perfect since then with a 13-0 record on the season and ranked wins over Carson Kharchla, #14 Jackson Turley, #30 Lorenzo Norman, #21 Tyler Eischens, and #17 Justin McCoy. Griffith, despite losing early in the season to #30 Lorenzo Norman, is currently on a 7-match winning streak that includes victories over #4 Cade DeVos, #5 Patrick Kennedy, #13 Rocco Welsh, and #20 Bubba Wilson.

Shane Griffith and Mekhi Lewis are the obvious contenders after Mekhi Lewis but I think there’s one, clear dark horse at 174 - Ohio State’s true freshman Rocco Welsh. After All-American Carson Kharchla went down with injury, Welsh has wrestled phenomenally accumulating a 17-3 record with ranked wins over #14 Jackson Turley, #16 Max Maylor, and #24 Jared Simma. Almost as notable as Welsh’s wins are his competitive losses against #3 Shane Griffith (2-1), #6 Edmond Ruth (2-1), and #1 Carter Starocci (4-2). Welsh is the only wrestler to hold Starocci to a decision and while that doesn’t mean much, it does show he’s capable of battling with the best in the country at 174 pounds.

What Does This Mean For Carter Starocci’s Olympic Hopes?

While Starocci is a 3-time NCAA Champion and won a bronze medal at the 2022 U23 World Championships, he’s still not qualified for the 2024 Olympic Trials. Starocci only has two chances left to qualify for the trials - winning NCCAs or the Last Chance Qualifier (April 6-7). 

Starocci wrestled 86 kg at the 2021 Olympic Trials where he went 0-2 losing to Bo Nickal (6-1) and Myles Martin (5-2). However, Starocci has made big improvements over the past 3 years and has been vocal about his intentions to wrestle 74 kg at this year’s trials. If Starocci is fully healthy, he’s a threat to make the Olympic team at 74 kg. However, if he doesn’t win NCAAs, does he go to the last chance qualifier? Does he still try to cut to 74 kg or does he wrestle 86 kg? We obviously don't have the answer to those questions at this time, but we'll find out soon enough as the college season comes to a close.