Happy NCAA bracket day! You can view all the brackets HERE. Seeding is always a hot topic of debate, so let’s see where the seeds messed up.

First, we must know how the NCAA tournament is seeded. The NCAA uses a matrix formula for every qualifier that looks like this:

1. Head-to-head competition — 25 percent
2. Quality wins — 20 percent
3. Coaches Ranking — 15 percent
4. Results against common opponents — 10 percent
5. RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) — 10 percent
6. Qualifying event placement — 10 percent
7. Win % — 10 percent

This sets the baseline for a committee that can then choose to switch guys around within a couple of points of what the matrix spits out.

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The big takeaway is that the matrix rewards guys who win their non Power Five Conferences compared to a guy with an average record in a harder conference. 

Now, let's take a look at the seven seeds that still made me scratch my head. 

174 #9 Cater Starocci, Penn State

This occurred as the seeding matrix and committee had to consider Carter Starocci’s medical forfeits to Brody Baumann and Andrew Sparks at Big Tens as actual losses. The coach’s rank portion of the matrix is the only calculation that considered prior seasons’ results. We knew Starocci wasn’t going to be the #1 because of this, but it’s still shocking to see. This will likely be the lowest seed a three-timer going for his fourth will be for a very very long time.

133 #6 Vito Arujau, Cornell

Vito Arujau is the returning national champion and has only lost to one guy this year. Therefore, he’s ranked #2 or #3 across all the major wrestling rankings. However, the fact that he only wrestled 15 matches this season and wasn’t a conference champion hurt him in the matrix. I still didn’t think he would drop all the way to six.

165 #5 Philip Conigliaro, Harvard

This one might have shocked me the most. Philip Conigliaro is 24-3 this season, but he lost to Cornell’s Benny Baker twice at EIWAs. His best win this season was over seven-seed Lennox Wolak, but Wolak won EIWAs. 

149 - #11 Quinn Kinner, Rider

Quinn Kinner has the largest difference between his ranking and his seed of any wrestler in the tournament (giving unranked qualifiers a 34 ranking). We at FloWrestling have him ranked 30th but he got the 11 seed. Kinner is 17-9 this season with losses to five nonqualifiers and two at-large guys. 

149 #9 Ethan Fernandez, Cornell

While we’re talking about 149, I don’t understand Ethan Fernandez at #9 either. He won EIWA’s but the only national qualifier outside of the EIWA he beat this year was Finn Solomon, who needed an at-large. He suffered losses to 14-seed Dylan D’Emilio, backup Zach Redding, teammate Joshua Saunders, and medical forfeited to nonqualifier Nash Singleton. 

141 #18 Cole Matthews, Pitt

Losses to low ranked/non ranked opponents clearly don’t hurt you that much in the matrix unless your name is Cole Matthews. Matthews suffered 10 losses this season, but only one was a nonranked loss. This season Matthews beat #1 seed Jesse Mendez, #4 Ryan Jack, and #6 Lachlan McNeil (2X) this season. Matthews was hurt by his win percentage (16-10) and not being a conference champion. 

197 #12 Rocky Elam, Missouri

Rocky Elam got punished for only wrestling 14 matches this year. Despite this, he only lost to #3 seeded Tanner Sloan and #5 Jacob Cardenas. However, at Big 12s he beat #8 Stephen Buchanan. That is why he’s ranked #7. As a matter of principle for making the regular season matter, I actually like this. I was just surprised to see it.

Seeds vs Rank By Weight

Another way to evaluate the seeding is to break down what weights were seeded "best" and "worst" compared to our rankings. In the below table, you'll see that the 149 pound bracket has an average seed variance of 4.6 per wrestler making it the weight with the greatest disparity between our rankings and the seeds. Conversely, 197 pounds had the least difference with only a 2.2 average variance per wrestler. 

Seed vs Rank By Conference

We also broke down how the seeds compare to our rankings by conference. In the below table, a positive number shows what conferences were seeded higher, on average, than where we have their wrestlers ranked. For instances, wrestlers from the MAC were seeded almost 5 spots better than we have them ranked. On the other side of things, wrestlers from the ACC were seeded, on average, 1 spot worse than where we have them ranked.

Rank vs Seed For Every Qualifier

Now take a look at every qualifier's rank vs seed sorted by absolute value with the most differentiated at the top. All non-ranked guys received a rank value of 34. 

As I said earlier in this article, the matrix favors guys who win their non Power Five Conference vs guys in a harder conference with an average record.

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