Questions about Carter Starocci's health have occupied much of the conversation around 174 lbs from the time he suffered an apparent knee injury in Penn State's final dual meet of the season, and they will continue to occupy that conversation until the end of the NCAA Championships. If the three-time NCAA champ is healthy, he's one of the clearest favorites in the country regardless of weight, but if he isn't, this weight could be wide open.

Complete FloWrestling rankings - 174 lbs

2024 NCAA wrestling Brackets

More NCAA Weight Class Preivews: 125 lbs | 133 lbs | 141 lbs | 149 lbs | 157 lbs | 165 lbs | 174 lbs | 184 lbs | 197 lbs | 285 lbs 

Complete FloWrestling news coverage of the 2024 NCAA Wrestling Championships

174 lbs Bracket

2023 All-Americans

1. Carter Starocci, Penn State
2. Mikey Labriola, Nebraska
3. Chris Foca, Cornell
4. Mekhi Lewis, Virginia Tech
5. Nelson Brands, Iowa
6. Dustin Plott, Oklahoma State
7. Ethan Smith, Ohio State
8. Peyton Mocco, Missouri

2024 Top 8 Seeds

1. Mekhi Lewis, Virginia Tech
2. Cade DeVos, SDSU
3. Edmond Ruth, Illinois
4. Shane Griffith, Michigan
5. Philip Conigliaro, Harvard
6. Rocco Welsh, Ohio State
7. Lennox Wolak, Columbia
8. Adam Kemp, Cal Poly

The Favorites

Scenario 1: Starocci is close to 100% healthy

Carter Starocci, Penn State

Scenario 2: Starocci isn't close to 100% healthy

Carter Starocci, Penn State

Mekhi Lewis, Virginia Tech

Shane Griffith, Michigan

If Carter Starocci is healthy, he's proven to be unbeatable, or at least unbeaten in the last 64 matches he wrestled before suffering two injury default losses at the Big Ten Championships. In his 12 victories this season, 11 were by bonus points including six techs and three falls. He also beat #1 seeded Mekhi Lewis by tech in an unofficial match at the NWCA All-Star Classic. If he's healthy, he's the clear favorite to win his fourth NCAA title.

Carter Starocci's dominant victory over Mekhi Lewis at the 2023 NWCA All-Star Classic

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Sign Up

Already a subscriber? Log In

If Starocci isn't close to 100%, he still might be the favorite, but he also might not. This is the first season that injury default losses count as official losses, and Starocci's two injury defaults impacted his seed in a big way. He sits at the #9 spot on the same side of the bracket as two former NCAA champs, Mekhi Lewis and Shane Griffith. Starocci is undefeated against Lewis, once in the 2022 NCAA finals, and twice at the NWCA All-Star Classic. He has yet to face Griffith. Lewis is incredibly stingy and strong. He'd be a tough opponent to face with a serious injury. Griffith, like Lewis, appears to be injured. He didn't compete in the Big Ten finals due to an injury he sustained in the semis. If he's healthy, don't count him out in this bracket.

Contenders

Cade DeVos, SDSU

Edmond Ruth, Illinois

Rocco Welsh, Ohio State

Lennox Wolak, Columbia

While all the favorites and former NCAA champs are on the top half of the bracket, there are plenty of contenders on the bottom half of the bracket. In fact, the bottom half of the bracket is somewhat up for grabs. The only returning All-American in the mix is #22 seed Peyton Mocco of Missouri.

SDSU's Cade DeVos has put together a rock solid season to take the second seed in this bracket. He's 21-1 against D1 opponents and just earned a Big 12 title with his second victory of the season over Missouri All-American Peyton Mocco. His lone loss this year was a sudden victory defeat against former NCAA champ Shane Griffith.

Edmond Ruth of Illinois was a Big Ten champ which helped earn him the #3 seed. Ruth finished in the round of 12 at NCAAs last year, but he's been even better this season. He was multiple victories over #6 seed Rocco Welsh, his quarterfinal opponent if seeds hold. His two losses this season came against Patrick Kennedy of Iowa and two-time NCAA champ Keegan O'Toole (who bumped up from 165 lbs for the Missouri vs Illinois dual).

Ohio State true freshman Rocco Welsh can't be counted out. The Buckeye does have four losses on the season, including two to Ruth, but he's been in position to win every match he's entered. His four losses this season were all decisions either in sudden victory or by two points or fewer in regulation.

Columbia's Lennox Wolak is coming off an EIWA title. His position in the bracket and dangerous offensive arsenal makes him a contender here. Wolak's judo skillset gives him serious threats from ties that can be especially challenging to competitors facing him for the first time. #2 seed DeVos, #3 seed Ruth, and #6 seed Welsh have yet to see Wolak which could give him an edge. It's worth mentioning that Wolak could need to get past #10 seed Nick Incontrera in the second round. Incontrera owns two victories over Wolak, but Wolak won their last contest by 16-6 major decision at EIWAs.

Lennox Wolak shows off his upper-body prowess

Lennox Wolak punches his ticket to the EIWA finals. He’ll wrestle Army’s Ben Pasiuk at 174 lbs. Watch live on Flo. pic.twitter.com/JNpQvemd1D

— FloWrestling (@FloWrestling) March 9, 2024

True freshmen can be unpredictable, and that's the kind of season Oklahoma State's Brayden Thompson has had. Just look at this three matches against Oklahoma's Tate Picklo. Thompson won by major in December, lost in sudden victory in February, then won in sudden victory at Big 12s. Thompson's record is just 12-9 this season, but at his best, he's beaten All-Americans like Peyton Mocco. It's unclear which version of Thompson will show up in Kansas City, but he's capable of finishing on the podium.

Sleepers & Landmines

Peyton Mocco, Missouri

Patrick Kennedy, Iowa

Danny Wask, Navy

Luca Augustine, Pitt

Brayden Thompson, Oklahoma State

It may seem like cheating to list Mocco, an All-American last season, as a sleeper, but this season he's the #22 seed, so he qualifies. He's 12-6 so far this season, and five of his losses have occurred in his last 8 matches. That might mean he's not ready to replicate his All-American form from a year ago, but wrestlers in his path would be foolish to overlook him. He's the lone returning All-American on the bottom half of the bracket which allows him to avoid the three NCAA champions on the top half. Keep your eyes on the #22 seed in this bracket.

Iowa's Patrick Kennedy was a 165-pounder earlier this season, but he's proven to be a legitimate factor at 174 lbs this year. He's the #12 seed in Kansas City, but he's capable of more than that. If he can get past #5 seed Conigliaro (who took two losses at EIWAs), he could see Michigan's Shane Griffith. While Griffith has two victories over Kennedy this season, he also suffered an injury at the Big Ten Championships that could limit his ability to perform at 100%. Whether Kennedy needs to get the job done for Iowa on the front or back side of the bracket, he seems prepared to put in the work in competition.

Former Blair Academy star Danny Wask has 11 losses this season, so labeling him a sleeper might sound absurd, but he starts his tournament with true freshman Rocco Welsh, a guy he beat at the U20 US Open his senior year and out-placed at Powerade the same season. Wask has had his moments this season, but he's waiting for a breakout tournament. This could be the one.

Luca Augustine is a furious hand-fighter who keeps himself in nearly every match. His tournament starts Penn's Nick Incontrera who has earned at top-ten seed with a solid season that included a victory over Iowa's Patrick Kennedy. Augustine won't be favored there, but if he can get a win, he could see Lennox Wolak, a guy he lost two by one and two points a season ago. It's possible that Augustine goes on a run on the front side of this bracket, but if he loses early, he could prove difficult to beat on the back side. Keep your eyes on the Pitt Panther.

Thompson's sudden-victory win over AA Peyton Mocco

🚨UPSET ALERT🚨

#29 Brayden Thompson upsets #5 Peyton Mocco at home as the Cowboys pick up another big win over Missouri! pic.twitter.com/gGC4PcNDXK

— FloWrestling (@FloWrestling) February 4, 2024

Predictions

Full All-American predictions with round of 12 finishers:

1. Cater Starocci, Penn State
2. Edmond Ruth, Illinois
3. Mekhi Lewis, Virginia Tech
4. Rocco Welsh, Ohio State
5. Shane Griffith, Michigan
6. Cade DeVos, SDSU
7. Lennox Wolak, Columbia
8. Nick Incontrera, Penn

Round of 12 finishers - Patrick Kennedy (Iowa), Peyton Mocco (Missouri), Justin McCoy (Virginia), Adam Kemp (Cal Poly)