World Olympic Qualifier Bracket Reaction For Spencer Lee & Zain Retherford
World Olympic Qualifier Bracket Reaction For Spencer Lee & Zain Retherford
A quick breakdown of Spencer Lee and Zain Retherford's draws at the 2024 World Olympic Games Qualifier.
The World Olympic Games Qualifier is set to go down in Istanbul, Türkiye with the top 3 placers at every weight qualifying for the 2024 Paris Olympics. Spencer Lee and Zain Retherford will start their tournaments on Saturday, May 11th with wrestling beginning at 3:00 am (ET). Check out the article below for a quick breakdown of Lee and Retherford’s draws and what they’ll have to do to punch their tickets to Paris.
Breaking Down Spencer Lee’s Draw
57 kg Bracket
Match 1 - Ben Tarik, MAR
Lee will be a big favorite in round one against Tarik who has no significant senior-level results. Tarik’s best career result was finishing with a bronze medal at the U17 world championships in the weight class where Luke Lilledahl ultimately won gold. I expect Lee to finish Tarik quickly with a tech.
Match 2 - Wanhao Zou, CHN
China’s Zou will be a bigger test for Lee in round two. Zou has been China’s best 57 kg wrestler since 2017 and finished 5th at worlds in 2022. Zou has impressive wins on the senior level over world medalists Alireza Sarlak and Horst Lehr, but I still think Lee should be considered the favorite here. Zou relies heavily on his defense and I don’t believe it’s good enough to hold off Lee for 6 minutes.
Daton Fix's win over Wanhao Zou:
Match 3 - Vladimir Egorov, MKD
I believe Egorov will come out of the first two rounds to meet Spencer in the quarters. Egorov is a Russian now representing North Macedonia. He’s never won a world medal but he did win a European title in 2022 by defeating #9 Aliabbas Rzazade in the finals. While that win is notable, Egorov hasn’t shown the consistency to earn a top 20 ranking in the world. Since that European title, he’s failed to medal at back-to-back world championships and lost to Darian Cruz. Lee should take Egorov seriously but again, Lee’s the favorite here.
Egorov's win over Rzazade:
Match 4 - Alireza Sarlak, IRI/Rakhat Kalzhan, KAZ
This match will be the one to qualify for the Olympics and the above two opponents are the most likely to meet Spencer in the semis. The most dangerous, in my opinion, is Iran’s Alireza Sarlak. He won a world silver medal in 2021 where he lost only to Thomas Gilman, 5-3. Sarlak relies heavily on his pressure and defense and could be challenging for Spencer to open up. With that in mind, Lee just defeated Gilman in two straight matches and Sarlak was 0-2 in his career against Gilman.
Kalzhat isn’t as credentialed as Sarlak but has had decent results over the past few years which suggests he may be able to take out Sarlak and reach the semis. Kalzhan has medaled at the Asian Championships twice and has wins over Olympian Gulomjon Abdullaev, world medalist Horst Lehr, world medalist Zanabazar Zandanbud, and Nick Suriano.
Thomas Gilman's win over Alireza Sarlak in the 2021 World Finals:
Breaking Down Zain Retherford’s Draw
65 kg Bracket
Match 1 - Stefan Coman, ROU
Retherford will be a big favorite in the opening round against Romania’s Stefan Coman. Coman has never medaled at a worlds or at Euros and doesn’t have any significant wins to suggest he can compete with Retherford. I expect Zain to dominate Coman from start to finish.
Match 2 - Ibrahim Guzan, Yem
Retherford will be an even bigger favorite in this match. Guzan has consistently lost badly to anyone remotely world-class. Zain will roll here to make the next round.
Match 3 - Tulga Tumur-Ochir, MGL
This is where things will get tough for Zain and the fact that this will be a round-of-16 match shows off the depth of this weight. Tumur-Ochir won a bronze medal at the 2021 World Championships and has career wins over world champion Ismail Musukaev, world champion Rahman Amouzad, Yianni Diakomihalis, Joey McKenna, Nick Lee, Abdulmazhid Kudiev, and several other top 65 kg wrestlers. In my opinion, Tumur-Ochir is the toughest wrestler in the bracket and if Zain beats Tumur-Ochir, he’s in great shape to make the Olympics.
Tumur-Ochir's win over 2023 World Champion Ismail Musukaev:
Match 4 - Abdulmazhid Kudiev, TJK
While Tumur-Ochir might be the biggest test in the bracket, things won’t get easy after the round-of-16 and Retherford will likely wrestle Abdulmazhid Kudiev in the quarters. Kudiev is a Russian now representing Tajikistan and is currently ranked #20 in the world at 65 kg. He’s incredibly talented with 3 wins in the past 18 months over Russia’s current top 65 kg wrestler and 2023 world bronze medalist Shamil Mamedov. Kudiev has other quality wins over Alejandero Valdes, Umidjon Jalolov, and James Green. However, his losses to Vazgen Tevanyan, Kwangjin Kim, and Erik Arushanian show that he still has consistency issues and isn’t an unstoppable force at 65 kg.
Match 5 - Sujeet Kalka, IND/Umidjon Jalolov, UZB
While there are a number of wrestlers who could make it to the semis, the above two wrestlers are the most likely to meet Zain in the semis. Both Sujeet Kalka and Umidjon Jalolov are young contenders who could put themselves on the map in Istanbul. Jalolov won a U20 world title in 2022 and a Cadet world title in 2019. However, he hasn’t punched through on the senior level yet and notably lost at last year’s worlds to Nick Lee (4-3).
Sujeet was a U20 world bronze medalist in 2022 but Sujeet hasn’t gotten a chance to wrestle at a senior worlds. However, he did notably defeated Yianni Diakomihalis in 2022 at the Tunisian Ranking Series Tournament. On the other hand, Sujeet hasn’t had any other results that shows he’s on Retherford’s level and even lost to Sebastian Rivera last summer in a wild, 9-7 match. If Retherford makes it to the semis, I fully expect him to take out whoever he meets there.
Sujeet's win over Yianni Diakomihalis:
