133-Pound Pre-Season NCAA D1 Wrestling Preview & Predictions

133-Pound Pre-Season NCAA D1 Wrestling Preview & Predictions

A preview with predictions for the 2024-25 season at 133-pound weight class in Division 1 college wrestling.

Oct 9, 2024 by Andrew Spey
133-Pound Pre-Season NCAA D1 Wrestling Preview & Predictions

The story of 2024-25 season was that of two titans, Vito Arujau and Daton Fix, battling it out in their final year of eligibility, having finally reached the end of their respective collegiate journies after graduating high school in 2017. 

Vito would prevail once again, winning his second consecutive NCAA championship, earning titles that bracketed a senior world championship at 61kg. Fix would have to once more settle for a runner-up finish, his record-setting fourth trip to the finals without a title. Perhaps that is a dubious distinction but nonetheless, one that qualifies Fix as one of the best lightweights of his generation. 

Weight Class Previews

125 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 157| 165 | 174 | 184 | 197 | 285

This season, a new chapter in NCAA wrestling history will be written, and the likeliest duo to pick up the mantle from Vito and Daton are the next two placers at 2024's Kansas City NCAAs, Ryan Crookham of Lehigh and Nasir Bailey of Little Rock. 

Crookham defeated Bailey in the third-place bout, providing the opening salvo of what may become the next great NCAA wrestling rivalry. Notably, both wrestlers were in their freshman season, and both were from schools outside the power conferences (though despite it's mid-major status, Lehigh has one of the most storied histories in the sport). 

There are a plethora of contenders in the 133lb weight class, however, who might interrupt Crookham and Bailey's journey to the NCAA finals, including multiple All-Americans who weren't in the division last season due to redshirts, injuries, or weight changes. 

All that talent in a lightweight division is a recipe for a dynamic weight class. We'll do our best to make sense of a wide-open 133-pound weight class in our preview below. 

Advance to the 28:24 mark in the video below for a discussion of the 133lb weight class from our award-winning podcast: FloWrestling Radio Live: 

1,058. Who Can Win 133 This Year?

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Current Top 10

(Carrer NCAA Placements in parentheses)

#1 Ryan Crookham, Lehigh, Sophomore (3rd)

#2 Nasir Bailey, Little Rock, Sophomore (4th)

#3 Drake Ayala, Iowa, Junior (DNP, 2nd)

#4 Dylan Ragusin, Michigan, Senior (DNP, R12, R16, 5th)

#5 Evan Frost, Iowa State, Sophomore (6th)

#6 Dylan Shawver, Rutgers, Junior (DNQ, DNP, 7th)

#7 Kai Orine, NC State, Senior (DNS, R16, 8th, 8th)

#8 Aaron Nagao, Penn State, Junior (5th, R12)

#9 Lucas Byrd, Illinois, Senior (5th, 5th, R12)

#10 Tyler Wells, Minnesota, Sophomore (R12)

Check out the entire preseason rankings starting with the 133lb NCAA Rankings.

*DNP = did not place; DNQ = did not qualify; DNS = did not start

Other Returning All-Americans

Chris Cannon, Northwestern, Senior (7th, 7th, DNP)

Cannon is currently not in FloWrestling's NCAA rankings but our intrepid rankers have not updated those lists since Cannon announced he was returning to collegiate wrestling to his once and future home of Northwestern after spending a brief, injury-shortened season at Michigan. 

Other Notable Wrestlers Returning From Redshirts

Tyler Knox, Stanford, Freshman

Markel Baker, Northern Illinois, Sophomore

Angelo Rini, Indiana, Senior

Zan Fugitt, Wisconsin, Freshman

More info can be found in our Lightweight Redshirt Report

Last Year's Top 8

1st: Vito Arujau, Cornell

2nd: Daton Fix, Oklahoma State

3rd: Ryan Crookham, Lehigh

4th: Nasir Bailey, Little Rock

5th: Dylan Ragusin, Michigan

6th: Evan Frost, Iowa State

7th: Dylan Shawver, Rutgers

8th: Kai Orine, NC State

Notable 133lb Graduates

(Career NCAA placements in parentheses)

Vito Arujau, Cornell (4th, 3rd, 1st, 1st)

Daton Fix, Oklahoma State (2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 2nd)

Brody Teske, Iowa (4X NCAA Qualifier, 2X Round of 12)

Michael Colaiocco (4X NCAA Qualifier)

Cayden Rooks, Indiana (2X NCAA Qualifier)

The big two are guns are gone, as are a trio of very dangerous veterans in Teske, Colaiocco, and Rooks. The odds that both Teske and Colaiocco would be out of NCAA eligibility without an All-American honor between them were very low when they were coming out of high school. 

Title Contenders

#1 Ryan Crookham, Lehigh

#2 Nasir Bailey, Little Rock

#3 Drake Ayala, Iowa

We've already mentioned Crookham and Bailey, but it's worth expanding on how extraordinary their freshman seasons were (Bailey was a true freshman, Crookham a redshirt frosh). 

Lehigh Valley native Ryan Crookham only lost once last season, to eventual NCAA champ Vito Arujau in the NCAA semifinals. He defeated Arjua twice, once during the regular season and once in the EIWA finals. He also defeated Bailey twice at NCAAs, on both the championship and consolation side of the bracket. 

Below is Crookham's win over Bailey in the third place bout. Their quarterfinal bout, also won by Crookham, is here.

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Bailey was only defeated four times last season: twice by Crookham, once by Vito, and once by Dom Serrano at the Southern Scuffle. The true freshman from Chicagoland was able to amass 29 wins in his true freshman campaign, including victories over All-Americans Dylan Ragusin Kai Orine at NCAAs. 

Besides Ryan and Nasir, Drake Ayala has to be included in the conversation of title contenders. Ayala, now in his fourth year in Iowa, proved his bona fides by making the 2024 NCAA finals, ultimately dropping his primetime bout against Richie Figueroa. 

Assuming Ayala can maintain his strength and craftiness (his slide-by is exceptional) up one weight class, he will be in the mix for a return trip to the sport's biggest platform in March. 

Watch Drake win his semifinal bout in Kansas City: 

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Other Contenders

#4 Dylan Ragusin, Michigan

#5 Evan Frost, Iowa State

#6 Dylan Shawver, Rutgers

#7 Kai Orine, NC State

#8 Aaron Nagao, Penn State

#9 Lucas Byrd, Illinois

Chris Cannon, Northwestern

Ten All-Americans return to 133, meaning at least two former podium placers are not going to make it to Saturday of the NCAA Championships in Philadelphia next March. 

Besides the aforementioned Ayala, there are no notable 125-pounders bumping up, nor are there any 141-pounders moving down a division. 

Ragusin and Orine will provide senior leadership for the weight class. Both veterans have proven their mettle in what has consistently been one of the deepest weight classes in the country over the last half-decade. 

Louisiana native Evan Frost was a pleasant surprise for the Cyclones last season, though there were undoubtedly many folks who saw that breakout performance coming. Frost adds depth to Iowa State's already-loaded roster in the lighter weights, and may have been at least part of the reason Ramazan Attasauov transferred to Illinois this offseason, though it should also be mentioned that Attasauov is penciled in at 125 this year. 

Ohio native Dylan Shawver scored big points for Rutgers last season. The 7th placer in Kansas City is one of four Scarlet Knight returning All-Americans expected in the lineup this season. 

Lucas Byrd and Chris Cannon are two Big Ten All-Americans returning to action after missing the previous season due to injury. 

And speaking of injuries, Aaron Nagao had to withdraw from U23 World Team Trials this summer. If the California native and transfer from Minnesota can't wrestle this season, expect true sophomore Braedan Davis to bump up from 125, where he made the round of 12, and handle duties at 133. 

Sleepers and Landmines

#13 Connor McGonagle, Virginia Tech

#17 Julian Chlebove, Arizona State

#23 Ryan Miller, Penn

McGonagle was displaced at Lehigh by Ryan Crookham but has the resume to reach the medal rounds at NCAAs. 

Watch McGonagle notch a victory at the 2023 NWCA All-Star Classic: 


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Julian Chlebove is one of the most electric wrestlers in any division, and Ryan Miller qualified for the 2022 and 2023 NCAAs before being squeezed out of the Quaker lineup in 2024.

Backup Watch

It's very rare for a preseason projected lineup to stay intact all the way to the postseason. Here are some 133-pounders that don't project onto a starting lineup at the moment, but could do serious damage in March if circumstances thrust them into a starting job. 

Braeden Davis, Penn State - Davis would be a podium threat if Aaron Nagao is forced to miss the postseason. 

Kale Peterson, Iowa - Peterson could step in for fellow Iowan native Drake Ayala if needed.

Brock Bobzein/Zan Fugitt, Wisconsin - Expect one of these redshirt freshmen to start will the other stays ready from the bench. 

Ben Davino, Ohio State - The blue chip recruit (#3 on the 2024 Big Board) would have to earn the spot over veteran Nic Bouzakis, but should be considered a AA threat if he does.

Jake Crapps, Missouri - Another highly rated Big Boarder from 2024 who could wrestle his way into a starting role. 

Adrian Meza, Iowa State - Will likely redshirt with Frost in the lineup but the Valient Prep grad will be ready if needed. 

Future Stars

Before we look ahead to March and predict 2025 133-pound All-Americans, let's take a look ahead at the 2025-26 season and drop some names of some current high school seniors who could make some noise at 133 next year as true freshmen. 

#1 Marcus Blaze, uncommitted

#4 Anthony Knox, Cornell

#12 Isaiah Cortez, Cornell

#16 Adrian DeJesus, Cornell

#6 Leo Deluca, Iowa

#7 Aaron Seidel, Virginia Tech

#18 Nate Desmond, Penn State

#24 Seth Mendoza, Missouri

#28 Ronnie Ramirez, Oklahoma State

#31 Christian Castillo, Iowa State

You can find more info on our commitment list and Class of 2025 Big Board.

The top name on the big board, Marcus Blaze, is still uncommitted, and figures to make the biggest recruiting news of the year when he does commit. 

The three Cornell commits will likely sort themselves into different weight classes and each may also defer their entry into college by one year with a grey shirt. 

Six other power programs have a highly-ranked recruit headed their way next fall. 

Predictions

1st: Ryan Crookham, Lehigh

2nd: Nasir Bailey, Little Rock

3rd: Dylan Ragusin, Michigan

4th: Lucas Byrd, Illinois

5th: Drake Ayala, Iowa

6th: Evan Frost, Iowa State

7th: Dylan Shawver, Rutgers

8th: Connor McGonagle, Virginia Tech

I'm going with last year's highest placers to move up from the third-place bout to the finals, where I think Crookham will get it done once again to become Lehigh's first national champ since Darian Cruz in 2017.

Ragusin is certainly capable of going on a deep run, as is Byrd, though Ragusin did drop a 5-0 bout to Bailey at the  2024 NCAAs. We also haven't seen Byrd wrestle in a year. 

Ayala also proved he has the ability to make the NCAA finals, but that was at a lighter weight class, so I'm being conservative (perhaps too conservative) with his prediction. 

Finally, it goes without saying (though I'll type it here anyway) that there are many worthy contenders for the podium, with about a dozen other wrestlers with legit claims to being All-American caliber. Overwhelmed with deserving choices, I'm going with two wrestlers who reached the final eight last season, plus McGonagle, who beat Sam Latona at last year's NWCA All-Star Classic, as a bit of a wild card pick.

Nothing would make me happier than to see a student-athlete prove my picks hilariously wrong. We'll see how I do in March!