2015 NCAA D1 ChampionshipsMar 18, 2015 by Christian Pyles
NCAA Darkhorse Selections!
NCAA Darkhorse Selections!
Writing the darkhorses article is always one of my favorite pre-NCAA pieces of writing. Guys can be darkhorses for very different reasons and with very diff
Writing the darkhorses article is always one of my favorite pre-NCAA pieces of writing. Guys can be darkhorses for very different reasons and with very different expectations. If I have an unseeded guy on going to place that’s a darkhorse performance. If you’re a 6-10 seed and I think you can win/make the finals/place top 4 that’s a darkhorse performance.
Disclaimer: I’m not going to include guys like Delgado, Schopp, Kindig, Hunter Stieber, Brascetta. They are great, and that’s documented. Their lack of or low seeds is for reasons we all know. This is for guys who are under the radar or have lower expectations than I feel they should.
125
Jordan Conaway
I love him out of the 11. There’s two ways to look at his draw: Is it crazy tough after round 1? Absolutely. However, he’s been there with Gilman in the past. This stock isn’t really about his abillity to beat Thomas Gilman, it’s simply an added bonus that he’s been right there with him and would likely face Dance after that (who he’s beaten). The value with Conaway is in the wrestle backs. I think he knocks off Parker, Rodriguez to reach the round of 12. After that he will face a combination of Delgado/Peters or Tyler Cox. I am leaning towards Delgado there and I like that match up for Jordan. If he places you’ve got a great return. If he makes the round of 12 it’s no loss to you. As good as he is, I would be fairly stunned if he didn’t make at least the round of 12. A pretty risk-free purchase.
Zeke Moisey
Last year we saw this weight yield 3 out of nowhere All Americans with Dance, Cruz and Hall. There was very little evidence that indicated this was possible apart from their always apparent talent. The results weren’t there. The same can be said for Moisey but every time I’ve watched him I liked what I saw. He’s good in all positions and can get to the legs. I like him to knock of Chasen Tolbert in round one before falling to Garrett. (though Nahshon has not looked great, upset potential?) Even if he falls round one there’s a chance he can crawl back to the round of 12 where he’d likely face the Gilman/Dance loser. That’s worst case scenario. If he can get that first win there’s a chance he can go on a run. If there’s an unseeded AA (not named Delgado) don’t be surprised if it’s Zeke.
133
Jimmy Gulibon
I’ve been high on Jimmy for a bit. Out of the 7 he’s a pretty scary draw. The question for Jimmy is not can he beat anyone at this weight. He can. I assure you he can. The question is stringing them together one after another after another. Jimmy faces Beckman in round 2. A winnable match for sure, but that’s been a match up that has favored Beckman historically (we’ll get to Mason in a bit). Taylor is a tough match I agree, but he’s not a tremendous favorite in my mind. Then Jimmy has Clark in the semi’s. Not bad there either. Yeah, it’s a brutal draw. The point is he’s a 7 and he has a winnable match every round. Tell me where I’m crazy!
Mason Beckman
Essentially take the case for Jimmy Gulibon and make it for Mason out of the 10 spot. Their path is essentially the same. Worst case scenario I see Mason vastly out-wrestling his seed. I thought he looked excellent all EIWA’s. One costly turn lost him the match but he looked excellent on his feet. Mason could make a run here. His single is safe and crisp and he’s dang hard to score one. The turn was an aberration. Mason out-performs his seed.
141
Randy Cruz
I try not to avoid falling into the trap of predicting success because of what you just saw in person. Watching Randy Cruz wrestle I thought he looked awesome at EIWA’s. I’ll fall in the trap, I don’t care. His neutral counters are excellent and watching him attack the legs I believe he could snag some td’s there as well. Then there’s his punishing top game. Everyone I talk to says he’s an absolute gamer. We’ll see. Out of the 13 I think placing is entirely possible. He’s got a tough one right out of the gate with Rodriguez. If he wins I don’t like the Carter match up at all. Then he could face a path of something like Spisak, Ward and potentially Horan in the round of 12. I think he has the goods to win those.
149
Zach Beitz
Just a big fan of his style. Really like his draw as well. Villalonga in the 2nd is no walk in the park I admit, but I think with Villalonga’s reserved offense Beitz could be opportunistic and land a spot in the quarters. Sorensen is a more winnable match than people may realize though my assessment on him being a darkhorse isn’t just because of his draw. I just think he’s better than the 12. If he loses to Sorensen I think he’ll have someone like Clagon or Perez in the round of 12. I like him to win that match and secure AA status.
157
Doug Welch
It was pretty shocking to me that Welch didn’t get a seed. He faltered late but I think he’s quite a talent. There aren’t too many guys walking around with wins over James Green, but he’s one of them. Brutal draw to hit Miller early. Still, that’s a winnable match and even if he loses he’s got a shot at coming back to the round of 12 with potentially facing someone like Demas in the round of 12. I think he’s got the best shot to place of the unseeded guys (save Brascetta obviously).
165
Dylan Palacio
There’s questions about his health for sure. I think he’s one of the most fun guys to watch in the country, and that’s probably not a secret to anyone else. I’m not seeing him make a run too far into the top side. Personally I think the Bo match is a terrible match up for Palacio. I think he gets it done on the back side downing Pierce Harger or someone of that nature in the round of 12. I’d like this even more if he had finished EIWA’s healthy
174
Kyle Crutchmer
I had high hopes coming into this year for Kyle Crutchmer. A few 74’s really stepped up but he’s not too far off the pace I thought he’d come into preseason. As a 12 seed I think his draw is difficult, but could be navigated. Crutchmer has the goods on his feet to compete with almost everyone. Recall he took Matt Brown to OT in their dual. If he can sustain 7 minutes of offense he’ll be tough to beat.
184
Nolan Boyd
This one is a combination of the guys talent and his draw. Remember he completely picked Taylor Meeks apart in the Reno TOC finals. His results have certainly been inconsistent but wins like Meeks and Brooks for a 12 seed are pretty salty. Back to back Cowboy picks but I think it is worth mentioning Oklahoma State the last 2 years has really had their guys ready at NCAA’s. These two could be the next batch of Cowboys exceeding NCAA expectations.
Brett Pfarr
Out of the 11 Pfarr is interesting in my opinion. No, he hasn’t done well with Zilmer from a wins/loss standpoint, but consider those matches have been extremely close. I like Pfarr because he doesn’t stop wrestling at any point and he’s good in all positions including scrambling. Additionally, he has a few paths to placing. Maybe he gets super hot and makes the semi’s? That’s more unlikely but even if he falls to Zilmer I think he wrestles back to the round of 12 where he’ll have someone like Abounader or Brooks. Despite a slightly lopsided score, Pfarr has shown he can wrestle with Brooks.
197
Zach Nye
Considering Nye has McIntosh round 1, this is a tough one to make. While that’s not a great match up at all for Zach, I think he can storm back and make the round of 12. For an unseeded guy to claw back to the round of 12 would be quite impressive. He’s likely looking at someone like Burak/Polizzi in the round of 12. That’s a tough match up but his scrambling makes him a tough out.
285
Adam Coon
Is he a darkhorse even? Some may say no, but the feedback I get from people seems quite dismissive of his chances and I think it’s nuts. This is strictly by title contending standards. Willie Saylor poo-pooed some of my Coon hype this week which makes me even more confident in Adam. People may be writing him off but let’s recall he’s 3-1 against Telford lifetime including a win this year. Admittedly, McMullan presents some problems, but Coon showed he can compete with McMullan losing a tight 7-6 match at Big 10’s. Coon can win it all (oh yeah, he beat Gwiaz last year too).
So there you have it. Who’d I miss? Who’s going to be this years Conner Hartmann or Joey Dance?
Disclaimer: I’m not going to include guys like Delgado, Schopp, Kindig, Hunter Stieber, Brascetta. They are great, and that’s documented. Their lack of or low seeds is for reasons we all know. This is for guys who are under the radar or have lower expectations than I feel they should.
125
Jordan Conaway
I love him out of the 11. There’s two ways to look at his draw: Is it crazy tough after round 1? Absolutely. However, he’s been there with Gilman in the past. This stock isn’t really about his abillity to beat Thomas Gilman, it’s simply an added bonus that he’s been right there with him and would likely face Dance after that (who he’s beaten). The value with Conaway is in the wrestle backs. I think he knocks off Parker, Rodriguez to reach the round of 12. After that he will face a combination of Delgado/Peters or Tyler Cox. I am leaning towards Delgado there and I like that match up for Jordan. If he places you’ve got a great return. If he makes the round of 12 it’s no loss to you. As good as he is, I would be fairly stunned if he didn’t make at least the round of 12. A pretty risk-free purchase.
Zeke Moisey
Last year we saw this weight yield 3 out of nowhere All Americans with Dance, Cruz and Hall. There was very little evidence that indicated this was possible apart from their always apparent talent. The results weren’t there. The same can be said for Moisey but every time I’ve watched him I liked what I saw. He’s good in all positions and can get to the legs. I like him to knock of Chasen Tolbert in round one before falling to Garrett. (though Nahshon has not looked great, upset potential?) Even if he falls round one there’s a chance he can crawl back to the round of 12 where he’d likely face the Gilman/Dance loser. That’s worst case scenario. If he can get that first win there’s a chance he can go on a run. If there’s an unseeded AA (not named Delgado) don’t be surprised if it’s Zeke.
133
Jimmy Gulibon
I’ve been high on Jimmy for a bit. Out of the 7 he’s a pretty scary draw. The question for Jimmy is not can he beat anyone at this weight. He can. I assure you he can. The question is stringing them together one after another after another. Jimmy faces Beckman in round 2. A winnable match for sure, but that’s been a match up that has favored Beckman historically (we’ll get to Mason in a bit). Taylor is a tough match I agree, but he’s not a tremendous favorite in my mind. Then Jimmy has Clark in the semi’s. Not bad there either. Yeah, it’s a brutal draw. The point is he’s a 7 and he has a winnable match every round. Tell me where I’m crazy!
Mason Beckman
Essentially take the case for Jimmy Gulibon and make it for Mason out of the 10 spot. Their path is essentially the same. Worst case scenario I see Mason vastly out-wrestling his seed. I thought he looked excellent all EIWA’s. One costly turn lost him the match but he looked excellent on his feet. Mason could make a run here. His single is safe and crisp and he’s dang hard to score one. The turn was an aberration. Mason out-performs his seed.
141
Randy Cruz
I try not to avoid falling into the trap of predicting success because of what you just saw in person. Watching Randy Cruz wrestle I thought he looked awesome at EIWA’s. I’ll fall in the trap, I don’t care. His neutral counters are excellent and watching him attack the legs I believe he could snag some td’s there as well. Then there’s his punishing top game. Everyone I talk to says he’s an absolute gamer. We’ll see. Out of the 13 I think placing is entirely possible. He’s got a tough one right out of the gate with Rodriguez. If he wins I don’t like the Carter match up at all. Then he could face a path of something like Spisak, Ward and potentially Horan in the round of 12. I think he has the goods to win those.
149
Zach Beitz
Just a big fan of his style. Really like his draw as well. Villalonga in the 2nd is no walk in the park I admit, but I think with Villalonga’s reserved offense Beitz could be opportunistic and land a spot in the quarters. Sorensen is a more winnable match than people may realize though my assessment on him being a darkhorse isn’t just because of his draw. I just think he’s better than the 12. If he loses to Sorensen I think he’ll have someone like Clagon or Perez in the round of 12. I like him to win that match and secure AA status.
157
Doug Welch
It was pretty shocking to me that Welch didn’t get a seed. He faltered late but I think he’s quite a talent. There aren’t too many guys walking around with wins over James Green, but he’s one of them. Brutal draw to hit Miller early. Still, that’s a winnable match and even if he loses he’s got a shot at coming back to the round of 12 with potentially facing someone like Demas in the round of 12. I think he’s got the best shot to place of the unseeded guys (save Brascetta obviously).
165
Dylan Palacio
There’s questions about his health for sure. I think he’s one of the most fun guys to watch in the country, and that’s probably not a secret to anyone else. I’m not seeing him make a run too far into the top side. Personally I think the Bo match is a terrible match up for Palacio. I think he gets it done on the back side downing Pierce Harger or someone of that nature in the round of 12. I’d like this even more if he had finished EIWA’s healthy
174
Kyle Crutchmer
I had high hopes coming into this year for Kyle Crutchmer. A few 74’s really stepped up but he’s not too far off the pace I thought he’d come into preseason. As a 12 seed I think his draw is difficult, but could be navigated. Crutchmer has the goods on his feet to compete with almost everyone. Recall he took Matt Brown to OT in their dual. If he can sustain 7 minutes of offense he’ll be tough to beat.
184
Nolan Boyd
This one is a combination of the guys talent and his draw. Remember he completely picked Taylor Meeks apart in the Reno TOC finals. His results have certainly been inconsistent but wins like Meeks and Brooks for a 12 seed are pretty salty. Back to back Cowboy picks but I think it is worth mentioning Oklahoma State the last 2 years has really had their guys ready at NCAA’s. These two could be the next batch of Cowboys exceeding NCAA expectations.
Brett Pfarr
Out of the 11 Pfarr is interesting in my opinion. No, he hasn’t done well with Zilmer from a wins/loss standpoint, but consider those matches have been extremely close. I like Pfarr because he doesn’t stop wrestling at any point and he’s good in all positions including scrambling. Additionally, he has a few paths to placing. Maybe he gets super hot and makes the semi’s? That’s more unlikely but even if he falls to Zilmer I think he wrestles back to the round of 12 where he’ll have someone like Abounader or Brooks. Despite a slightly lopsided score, Pfarr has shown he can wrestle with Brooks.
197
Zach Nye
Considering Nye has McIntosh round 1, this is a tough one to make. While that’s not a great match up at all for Zach, I think he can storm back and make the round of 12. For an unseeded guy to claw back to the round of 12 would be quite impressive. He’s likely looking at someone like Burak/Polizzi in the round of 12. That’s a tough match up but his scrambling makes him a tough out.
285
Adam Coon
Is he a darkhorse even? Some may say no, but the feedback I get from people seems quite dismissive of his chances and I think it’s nuts. This is strictly by title contending standards. Willie Saylor poo-pooed some of my Coon hype this week which makes me even more confident in Adam. People may be writing him off but let’s recall he’s 3-1 against Telford lifetime including a win this year. Admittedly, McMullan presents some problems, but Coon showed he can compete with McMullan losing a tight 7-6 match at Big 10’s. Coon can win it all (oh yeah, he beat Gwiaz last year too).
So there you have it. Who’d I miss? Who’s going to be this years Conner Hartmann or Joey Dance?