I was excited to read and ponder Willie's betting lines for Who's #1. As a wrestling junkie, I love looking at things through that handicapping lense for a variety of reasons. Looking at it through a handicapped lense makes you think and look much deeper. Yes, Nick Reenan may win, but by how much? Who is a fast starter? Will either fade late? What role will size play in his ability to score as many points? The handicaps and betting lines cause you to ask questions you wouldn't normally consider when you simply ask: 'Who wins?'
That higher level thinking is really fun for me and makes for some fantastic discussion (at least amongst my FloWrestling co-workers). So that's why I jumped at the opportunity to give my opinion on Willie's lines and where the best bets/values were.
I won’t lie, Willie did a nice job with some of these. But he made a few critical errors that only the well trained, degenerate gambler can spot. There’s value to be had in nearly every match up. I’ve spotted it and am glad to bring you my perspective.
The Lines:
Match #1 - 132lbs - #1-Chad Red, IN (-1.5) vs. #4-Taylor Lamont, UT - O/U 7.5pts
Red to Win: -$175
LaMont to Win: +$150
The Play:
Well let’s see here. Lamont is 5-1 against Red in his career and is +150? Thanks for the softball right away. If nothing else grab the points with Lamont. The safest play is probably Lamont +1.5 considering how good (and I mean DARN good) Chad Red has looked. I’m not naive, and I realize that Red is likely the better overall prospect, but matchups matter. I get the guy with the history of success AND points? Thank you, Willie.
The Lines:
Match #2 - 132lbs - #2-Luke Pletcher, PA (+2.5) vs. #3-Yianni Diakomihalis, NY - O/U 7.5pts
Pletcher to Win: +$140
Yianni to Win: -$190
The Play:
I can’t lie, he did a nice job as far as handicapping the match ups. Yianni’s point scoring potential scares me away from an otherwise tempting +2.5 for Pletcher. Pletcher looked as good as ever at FloNationals (including the Red match, pre pin). Yianni appears to be jumping levels at an alarming rate and can score in about 50 different ways. The play here is the o/u point total. I think it’s a bit of a fallacy with Pletcher where people marginalize him as a super defensive guy, very hard to score on. He’s been in shoot outs before and we know Yianni can score like crazy as well. Take the over 7.5. 5-3 match score and I win? With these two and their arsenal? All day.
The Lines:
Match #3 - 182lbs - #1-Dakota Geer, PA (+2.5) vs. #2-Beau Breske, WI - O/U 8.5pts
Geer to Win: +$165
Breske to Win: -$200
The Play:
Maybe the line that surprised me the most. I think this one has 1 td match written all over it. Geer is much better on the mat and is crazy hard to score on. I might not pick him to win this match, but +2.5? Willie got too wrapped up in Beau’s Fargo win over Montalvo and it lead to an inflated line. Geer keeps it within 2.
The Lines:
Match #4 - 113lbs - #1-Gavin Teasdale, PA (-1.5) vs. #2-Roman Bravo-Young, AZ - O/U 10.5pts
Teasdale To Win: -$150
RBY to Win: +$125
The Play:
Maybe I’m on an island here, but I view this as a relative coin flip. So you chase the value. I’m not ready to go on record to pick either guy, so while I’ll stay away from the +125 with RBY, I’ll take the RBY +1.5 for sure. While I think this will be action packed, 10.5 points is too much for my liking. I don’t think RBY will give up those kind of points. Take the under 10.5.
The Lines:
Match #5 - 145lbs - #1-Jared Verkleeren, PA (-1.5) vs. #2-Kyle Bierdumpfel, NJ - O/U 9.5pts
Verkleeren to Win: -$150
Bierdumpfel to Win: +$130
The Play:
Verkleeren is the hot name right now, and understandably so. Willie seemed to outline the very reasons I’m high on Bierdumpfel from an odds perspective. There’s plenty of value there. He’s arguably the more proven folkstyle wrestler and has experience at this weight that Jared doesn’t have. I’m more comfortable with taking Bierdumpfel +1.5 than betting him outright.
The Lines:
Match #6 - 152lbs - #1-Hayden Hidlay, PA (-1.5) vs. #2-Mason Manville, VA - O/U 5.5pts
Hidlay to Win: -$175
Manville to Win: +$140
The Play:
I love underdogs I guess. Everyone will be all over Hidlay in probably every aspect. There’s a general principle in sports I like to adhere to and it applies to wrestling all the same. A guy may be better, but the better guy A) does not always win and B) It is really hard to beat someone very good 4 times in a row. Period. Now you may argue Hidlay is just on another level altogether and that could very well be true. However, I think of all 3 styles Mason will fare best against HIdlay in Folkstyle. The safe bet is Mason +1.5 and throw in the under 5.5 for total points.
The Lines:
Match #7 - 195lbs - #1-Nick Reenan, TX (-3.5) vs. #2-Sam Colbray, OR - O/U 13.5pts
Reenan to Win: -$225
Colbray to Win: +$170
The Play:
Say it out loud, undersized 195 coming up to take on one of the biggest, strongest and most dynamic guys at any weight. I get the big guy +3.5? Love it again. I love Reenan in this match, but I’ve seen him storm out early and then settle in. This won’t really exploit Colbray’s issue of occasionally struggling to close out matches. As a prospect I’d much prefer Reenan, but it’s not about that at all. This is one match, one time. Combine the bets of Reenan -225 with Colbray +3.5 and you could be a happy man.
The Lines:
Match #8 - 220lbs - #1-Gable Steveson, MN (-3.5) vs. #2-Jordan Wood, PA - O/U 11.5pts
Steveson to Win: -$250
Wood to Win: +$200
The Play:
Salivating at this one. I see another opportunity here to win a few bets. I think +3.5 for Wood is just crazy, crazy value and indicative of a complete overreaction to one match. Wood shot himself out of the match against Gable, had no real gameplan to combat Steveson’s gifts and counters and it ended up being a blow out. Simply put, I think Wood may have overlooked him to a degree. I think Folkstyle will better suit Jordan and I think we’ll see a completely different gameplan implemented by Wood. I think all of those factors will lead to Wood keeping this one closer. I would feel great about making the Wood +3.5 bet as well as Steveson -250. I think both hit.
The Lines:
Match #9 - 126lbs - #1-Daton Fix, OK (-1.5) vs. #2-Rudy Yates, IL - O/U 7.5pts
Fix to Win: -$190
Rudy to Win: +$155
The Play:
Really tough one for me. I think this is about right. Close match, Daton wins. Not really tempted by the points or money line here. I expect very exciting bout. I think the bet here is the under 7.5 points. I feel great about it. There will be a lot of flurries but not sure the points will pile up en masse.
The Lines:
#1-Chad Red: $190
#2-Luke Pletcher: +$220
#3-Yianni Diakomihalis: +$140
#4-Taylor Lamont: +300
The Play:
This is simple, just pick who you think is going to win. They all are a good value. I really like Yianni here and since it’s a + I feel good about it even though he’s a favorite.
That higher level thinking is really fun for me and makes for some fantastic discussion (at least amongst my FloWrestling co-workers). So that's why I jumped at the opportunity to give my opinion on Willie's lines and where the best bets/values were.
I won’t lie, Willie did a nice job with some of these. But he made a few critical errors that only the well trained, degenerate gambler can spot. There’s value to be had in nearly every match up. I’ve spotted it and am glad to bring you my perspective.
The Lines:
Match #1 - 132lbs - #1-Chad Red, IN (-1.5) vs. #4-Taylor Lamont, UT - O/U 7.5pts
Red to Win: -$175
LaMont to Win: +$150
The Play:
Well let’s see here. Lamont is 5-1 against Red in his career and is +150? Thanks for the softball right away. If nothing else grab the points with Lamont. The safest play is probably Lamont +1.5 considering how good (and I mean DARN good) Chad Red has looked. I’m not naive, and I realize that Red is likely the better overall prospect, but matchups matter. I get the guy with the history of success AND points? Thank you, Willie.
The Lines:
Match #2 - 132lbs - #2-Luke Pletcher, PA (+2.5) vs. #3-Yianni Diakomihalis, NY - O/U 7.5pts
Pletcher to Win: +$140
Yianni to Win: -$190
The Play:
I can’t lie, he did a nice job as far as handicapping the match ups. Yianni’s point scoring potential scares me away from an otherwise tempting +2.5 for Pletcher. Pletcher looked as good as ever at FloNationals (including the Red match, pre pin). Yianni appears to be jumping levels at an alarming rate and can score in about 50 different ways. The play here is the o/u point total. I think it’s a bit of a fallacy with Pletcher where people marginalize him as a super defensive guy, very hard to score on. He’s been in shoot outs before and we know Yianni can score like crazy as well. Take the over 7.5. 5-3 match score and I win? With these two and their arsenal? All day.
The Lines:
Match #3 - 182lbs - #1-Dakota Geer, PA (+2.5) vs. #2-Beau Breske, WI - O/U 8.5pts
Geer to Win: +$165
Breske to Win: -$200
The Play:
Maybe the line that surprised me the most. I think this one has 1 td match written all over it. Geer is much better on the mat and is crazy hard to score on. I might not pick him to win this match, but +2.5? Willie got too wrapped up in Beau’s Fargo win over Montalvo and it lead to an inflated line. Geer keeps it within 2.
The Lines:
Match #4 - 113lbs - #1-Gavin Teasdale, PA (-1.5) vs. #2-Roman Bravo-Young, AZ - O/U 10.5pts
Teasdale To Win: -$150
RBY to Win: +$125
The Play:
Maybe I’m on an island here, but I view this as a relative coin flip. So you chase the value. I’m not ready to go on record to pick either guy, so while I’ll stay away from the +125 with RBY, I’ll take the RBY +1.5 for sure. While I think this will be action packed, 10.5 points is too much for my liking. I don’t think RBY will give up those kind of points. Take the under 10.5.
The Lines:
Match #5 - 145lbs - #1-Jared Verkleeren, PA (-1.5) vs. #2-Kyle Bierdumpfel, NJ - O/U 9.5pts
Verkleeren to Win: -$150
Bierdumpfel to Win: +$130
The Play:
Verkleeren is the hot name right now, and understandably so. Willie seemed to outline the very reasons I’m high on Bierdumpfel from an odds perspective. There’s plenty of value there. He’s arguably the more proven folkstyle wrestler and has experience at this weight that Jared doesn’t have. I’m more comfortable with taking Bierdumpfel +1.5 than betting him outright.
The Lines:
Match #6 - 152lbs - #1-Hayden Hidlay, PA (-1.5) vs. #2-Mason Manville, VA - O/U 5.5pts
Hidlay to Win: -$175
Manville to Win: +$140
The Play:
I love underdogs I guess. Everyone will be all over Hidlay in probably every aspect. There’s a general principle in sports I like to adhere to and it applies to wrestling all the same. A guy may be better, but the better guy A) does not always win and B) It is really hard to beat someone very good 4 times in a row. Period. Now you may argue Hidlay is just on another level altogether and that could very well be true. However, I think of all 3 styles Mason will fare best against HIdlay in Folkstyle. The safe bet is Mason +1.5 and throw in the under 5.5 for total points.
The Lines:
Match #7 - 195lbs - #1-Nick Reenan, TX (-3.5) vs. #2-Sam Colbray, OR - O/U 13.5pts
Reenan to Win: -$225
Colbray to Win: +$170
The Play:
Say it out loud, undersized 195 coming up to take on one of the biggest, strongest and most dynamic guys at any weight. I get the big guy +3.5? Love it again. I love Reenan in this match, but I’ve seen him storm out early and then settle in. This won’t really exploit Colbray’s issue of occasionally struggling to close out matches. As a prospect I’d much prefer Reenan, but it’s not about that at all. This is one match, one time. Combine the bets of Reenan -225 with Colbray +3.5 and you could be a happy man.
The Lines:
Match #8 - 220lbs - #1-Gable Steveson, MN (-3.5) vs. #2-Jordan Wood, PA - O/U 11.5pts
Steveson to Win: -$250
Wood to Win: +$200
The Play:
Salivating at this one. I see another opportunity here to win a few bets. I think +3.5 for Wood is just crazy, crazy value and indicative of a complete overreaction to one match. Wood shot himself out of the match against Gable, had no real gameplan to combat Steveson’s gifts and counters and it ended up being a blow out. Simply put, I think Wood may have overlooked him to a degree. I think Folkstyle will better suit Jordan and I think we’ll see a completely different gameplan implemented by Wood. I think all of those factors will lead to Wood keeping this one closer. I would feel great about making the Wood +3.5 bet as well as Steveson -250. I think both hit.
The Lines:
Match #9 - 126lbs - #1-Daton Fix, OK (-1.5) vs. #2-Rudy Yates, IL - O/U 7.5pts
Fix to Win: -$190
Rudy to Win: +$155
The Play:
Really tough one for me. I think this is about right. Close match, Daton wins. Not really tempted by the points or money line here. I expect very exciting bout. I think the bet here is the under 7.5 points. I feel great about it. There will be a lot of flurries but not sure the points will pile up en masse.
The Lines:
#1-Chad Red: $190
#2-Luke Pletcher: +$220
#3-Yianni Diakomihalis: +$140
#4-Taylor Lamont: +300
The Play:
This is simple, just pick who you think is going to win. They all are a good value. I really like Yianni here and since it’s a + I feel good about it even though he’s a favorite.