So much for working into the year! Iowa and Oklahoma State are putting it on the line early and I love it. Both teams are notorious for starting their seasons sending guys to opens and duals against lesser opponents. I give credit to both teams for making this dual happen A) So early and B) outdoors at Kinnick!

This dual pits the #2 Iowa Hawkeyes against the #3 Oklahoma State Cowboys. While both teams have well-established hammers who will be major contenders at NCAA’s, both teams also have considerable question marks. For Iowa, questions lie at 141, 157 and 165. The Hawkeyes are waiting for Brody Grothus to be able to compete at 141, but it will be some time before we see him in action. This will give an opportunity for Logan Ryan to potentially take the reins at 141. At 157 the Edwin Cooper project has been in the works for awhile now, but he struggled the previous year for Iowa as did scheduled starter Burke Paddock at 165. The Hawkeyes have a great track record of developing talent so simply because we saw these guys take some losses doesn’t mean that will necessarily continue. An additional question mark could lie at 285 with Sam Stoll who also took some losses last year that don’t instill confidence, especially with Austin Marsden looming.

For Oklahoma State their questions lie at 133, 157 and 197. I feel as though all three of these weights are not settled at this point in terms of the long term starter. At 133 and 157 we could see True Freshman (at some point, not likely now) Kaid Brock and Jo Jo Smith take the helm. At 197 last years starter Austin Schafer may be in the driver's seat but I am curious if Nolan Boyd could get thrust into duty if Rogers beats him out at 184. So there’s a lot of moving parts here and a number of variables that can shift the dual in different directions.

Last year Iowa went to Oklahoma State and put a beating on the Cowboys to the tune of 30-7 with Dieringer and Boyd the only victors for the Cowboys. To the matchups.

125 #3 Thomas Gilman, Iowa vs #7 Eddie Klimara, Oklahoma State
A year ago Gilman put a pretty good beating on Eddie with a 15-5 major decision. While Gilman has historically owned this battle, I do believe the 10 point margin of victory is a bit of an outlier. Last year Eddie lost by margins of victory of: 2,1,1,10,1,1,1,3. That 10 sticks out like a sore thumb, doesn’t it? He also faced and lost to a number of very tough guys including Alan Waters and Zeke Moisey. None blew him out outside of Gilman. Go back to the Gilman/Klimara battles from two years ago as well and it was Gilman winning by margins of 3 and 2 points respectively. Look for a return towards that mean Saturday. Gilman will control the pace, get to legs and earn some riding time en route to a decision victory over Klimara.

Thomas Gilman WBD Eddie Klimara
Iowa-3
Oklahoma State-0


133 #2 Cory Clark, Iowa vs Gary Wayne Harding, Oklahoma State
It’s not a great sign to have Harding start the year with a 6 point losses to Kyle Garcia and Kaid Brock, respectively. It doesn’t get much easier and the hits may keep coming for Harding with NCAA finalist Cory Clark waiting at Kinnick. Last year it was a decision victory for Clark. Given how Harding has apparently looked this season nobody should be shocked if we see True Freshman Kaid Brock thrust into duty right away. I don’t have anything to suggest that will be the case, so I’ll operate under the assumption that Gary Wayne will get the nod. Clark is a threat to score big in all positions. He turns very well with his bar series on top. If we see Harding in this spot, I think bonus is coming for Clark. Multiple takedowns, riding time and a turn give Clark the win by major.

Cory Clark WMD Gary Wayne Harding
Iowa-7
Oklahoma State-0

141 Logan Ryan, Iowa vs #5 Dean Heil, Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State will look to Dean Heil to right the ship after two likely losses coming at the lighter weights. Heil turned an inconsistent season into an absolute gem culminating with a 4th place finish at NCAA’s. He wrestles an extremely high pace able to attack from space as well as from the ties. He is also among the best scramblers at this weight in the nation. Watching Ryan at the Grand View I think there’s a chance Heil can get things rolling and run off a series of takedowns and maybe a turn. I thought Heil looked fantastic at the All Star nearly pulling off the upset over Cody Brewer. He didn’t get to legs quite as much as I thought he would, that was partially because Cody Brewer shot once every 3.67 seconds it seemed. The one thing that makes me question Heil earning bonus are his finishes. He gets to his high crotch and single very effectively, but nearly always a scramble ensues. This eats up time and makes piling up the points a bit more difficult. The two wrestled last year and it was an 8-1 win for Heil. Heil has made some major leaps since that time. I am unsure if the same is true for Logan Ryan.

Dean Heil WMD Logan Ryan
Iowa-7
Oklahoma State-4

149 #3 Brandon Sorensen, Iowa vs #9 Anthony Collica, Oklahoma State
This matchup is killing me. I’m as high on Collica as anyone. He’s truly a bona-fide title contender in my mind. In a vacuum I view him as the better overall talent and typically I’ll err on that side when making predictions. He’s ultra crafty defensively and may have the widest variety of attacks from neutral of any wrestler at 149 this year. He’s 3-0 on the year, for what that’s worth. I just think at this stage of the year, I am going to side with Sorensen. I think he brings a nice advantage in the hand fight and I believe the grind of a folkstyle match in early November may cater better to his skills. The hand fighting and pressure of Sorensen will ultimately be the difference in a very tight win and swing match for this dual. This one smells like a one takedown match or a potential riding time point win for Sorensen.

Brandon Sorensen WBD Anthony Collica
Iowa-10
Oklahoma State-4

Here's Collica and Sorensen's thriller from April!

 

157 Edwin Cooper, Iowa vs Chance Marsteller, Oklahoma State
Don’t have a ton of confidence in who Oklahoma State sends out here, but I believe it will be Chance. Likewise, I’m not terribly sure that Cooper will be the guy either for the Hawkeyes. All things considered I still like Chance despite his struggles. I think he’ll be able to control the ties from his underhooks. Cooper can get to legs on just about anyone, but finishing is a struggle. I actually think Chance’s counters are the difference. This is a tough call because it’s so hard to know what you’ll get from either guy. I’m erring on the side of Chance and the better overall talent (in my opinion).

Chance Marsteller WBD Edwin Cooper
Iowa-10
Oklahoma State-7

165 Burke Paddock, Iowa vs #1 Alex Dieringer, Oklahoma State
Last year I was pretty stunned when Dieringer ‘only’ majored Patrick Rhoads. Whether we see Rhoads again or Burke Paddock I’m expecting a bigger result from the #1 pound for pound wrestler in the nation. A pin is possible, but with the new nearfall rules and the added incentive to work for a TD-only tech (which is now, thankfully worth 5 team points), I think it’s 5 or 6 on the board for Oklahoma State. Dieringer is the best in D1 wrestling and he’ll know what those team points mean to the team (last year the dual was out of hand, it won’t be this year).

Alex Dierginger WTF Burke Paddock
Iowa-10
Oklahoma State-12

174 #6 Alex Meyer, Iowa vs #3 Kyle Crutchmer, Oklahoma State
Huge spot for both guys and a huge match for this dual. Meyer took both meetings last year against Crutchmer. That being said, Crutchmer was a different guy last year, beating the guy Meyer was backing up the last two years, Mike Evans, at NCAA’s. Though Crutchmer was less than offensive against Epperly, I thought he looked relatively sharp and his shape seemed good. I view Crutchmer as the guy with a few more ways to beat you from his feet. I think he’s ready to get over the hump against Meyer in an all but must win match for the Cowboys. Crutchmer gets it done in a tight one!

Kyle Crutchmer WBD Alex Meyer
Iowa-10
Oklahoma State-15

184 #11 Sammy Brooks, Iowa vs #17 Jordan Rogers, Oklahoma State
I feel supremely confident about Brooks in this spot. Maybe they put out Boyd who beat Brooks last year in a weird one. I think the physicality of Brooks makes it a really rough match up against Rogers. There could be a few bombs in this one as both guys like to go upper body, that could be Rogers only path to victory.  That said, I like Brooks to win comfortably against either guy Oklahoma State puts out. Brooks let one get away last year against Oklahoma State.  That won't happen again.  

Sammy Brooks WBD Jordan Rogers
Iowa-13
Oklahoma State-15

197 #4 Nathan Burak, Iowa vs Austin Schafer, Oklahoma State
Nathan Burak is a big time favorite here against whoever Oklahoma State puts out. That said, I worry about his point scoring potential. He’s never developed an elite turn from top and doesn’t have many big time pinning combinations from his feet. However, he’s as safe as they come from his feet. He’ll get to his high crotch and finish more than a couple takedowns. Recall that Burak only won 7-3 over OSU backup Luke Bean. He only won 4 matches by bonus last year against D1 opponents, two of them were against the same Maryland opponent. Whoever Coach Smith sends should be able to avoid bonus here, expectations beyond that may be pie in the sky.

Nathan Burak WBD Austin Schafer
Iowa-16
Oklahoma State-15

285 Sam Stoll, Iowa vs #4 Austin Marsden, Oklahoma State
So it may come down to the Freshman heavyweight for Iowa with the dual on the line. Not an ideal scenario for the Hawkeyes. Marsden is an offensive mis-match right now against Stoll. I don’t think Stoll’s defense will allow too many takedowns, but Marsden will score enough that there will be no doubt. Not a bonus win, but a solid win nonetheless.  At this point I don't think Stoll has the leg attacks necessary to go point for point with a guy like Marsden.

Austin Marsden WBD Sam Stoll

Final Score:
Oklahoma State-18
Iowa-16

One match swings it. If Iowa wins 74, a match they’ve won before they’re in the drivers seat. My opinion is that 149 and 174 are complete toss ups. I see a split there. If either team can somehow nab both, that will probably be all she wrote. It’s tough enough to prognosticate when you’ve watched the teams wrestle some this year. When there are so many question marks and unknowns it can make it extremely difficult to predict. 

The below list shows which results I'm most confident in from most likely to least.

Confidence Order
Alex Dieringer
Nathan Burak
Dean Heil
Cory Clark
Austin Marsden
Thomas Gilman
Sammy Brooks
Chance Marsteller
Kyle Crutchmer
Brandon Sorensen

Oh yeah, it's going to be a BEA-U-TI-FUL day in Iowa City Saturday!

Watch event is live on BTN2GO and airs on delay at 7p ET on Sunday on the Big 10 Network!