This dual features two Coaches and programs that seem cut from the same cloth. Both NC State and Missouri seek out and compete against seemingly the toughest competition available. NC State is coming off a narrow loss to Virginia Tech two days ago. That loss dropped NC State to 21-1 on the season. Likewise, Missouri only sits with one loss on the year (Oklahoma State). Though currently ahead in the dual rankings, NC State may be an underdog as we take a closer look at the match ups.

Both teams have had incredibly tough dual schedules. NC State has faced Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Minnesota and Nebraska. Missouri meanwhile has faced Ohio State, Cornell, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. They both have this dual today as well as a likely seat against a quality opponent in the NWCA Dual Series. Those match ups are yet to be determined.

125 - #9 Barlow McGhee, Missouri vs Sean Fausz, NC State
Match ups matter. Barlow has unquestionably been superior this year to Sean. That said, I think a few things play against Barlow in this match. He’s coming off a 1 hour weigh in, which have been problematic for Barlow in terms of recovery. Fausz has looked good recently, having beaten then #9 Tim Lambert just one week ago. The deck seems a bit stacked against Barlow in terms of storylines entering the dual. Barlow is lethal with his re-attacks, but you best believe Coach Pop and company will have Sean schooled up. I just can’t go as far as to pick the upset here, though I’ve presented a strong case for it. Sean is good on top, but I think Barlow gets away. I also think McGhee finds a way from neutral. He’ll get the takedown and be able to hold center against Sean. At times, Barlow’s competition can move him around and get him to the edge. I don’t see that happening here. It’ll be tight and if Sean can keep it close early, he can take it late. I’m just not ready to go there yet. Barlow by decision

Missouri: 3
NC State: 0

133 - #14 Zach Synon, Missouri vs Jamal Morris, NC State
Another match, another bout with serious upset potential. Recency bias has me all out of whack right not. The last time I watched Synon, he lost to Austin Eicher. The last time I watched Morris he faded hard against VT’s Dennis Gustafson and got majored after having a 4-0 lead. Synon had a great weekend when he beat Cam Kelly and JDJ the same weekend but more and more that is looking like one isolated weekend. He lost to Eicher as I mentioned and also two weeks before he fell against Gary Wayne Harding. Gustafson was able to force his ties against Morris, and I think Synon may be able to do the same. I like Synon to control the ties with underhooks and get the win. Synon may be better served staying neutral as well. Give me Synon by 2 but I fully expect Morris to be in this one.

Missouri: 6
NC State: 0

141 - #5 Matt Manley, Missouri vs #3 Kevin Jack, NC State
This bout seems like it’s getting glossed over as a win for Jack. I really don’t get it. Manley has been every bit as good as Jack this season. Interestingly, Jack has wins over one of Manley’s losses (Thorn). Conversely, Manley has defeated two guys that downed Jack (Bleise, Mecate). So as far as common opponents go, it’s tough to make heads or tails of their results. I view this as a virtual toss up. I think Jack’s length will give Manley some trouble a la Tommy Thorn. I’m not especially confident in that, but I think it’s possible it goes that route. Jack seemed content to win a close one against Chishko Friday. Manley has proven that he can run you down late if he’s trailing. Just ask Micah Jordan. I think both guys get away well enough from bottom that I don’t see a turn from top playing a factor. I’m picking Jack by decision, but I have that funny feeling in my stomach as I type this (Disclaimer: that could just as well be the McDonalds Chicken Nuggets).

Mizzou: 6
NC State: 3

Compare each 141's match against Tommy Thorn below:
149: #3 Lavion Mayes, Missouri vs Beau Donahue, NC State
First mis-match of the dual. To be fair, that’s true for most guys against Mayes. Donahue is stingy enough at preventing finishes on singles. The problem is Mayes often doesn’t fool around with long finishes, he’ll just run through you. I think Lavion does enough damage for 7 minutes to get the major. He may get nearfall, he may not. If he does, I’d predict it’d come transitioning straight from TD to turn. First bonus points of the night come courtesy of Lavion Mayes.

Mizzou: 10
NC State: 3

157: LeRoy Barnes, Missouri vs #4 Tommy Gantt, NC State
What Barnes has been doing for Mizzou has been admirable. From 141 last year (where he actually beat Matt Manley) to up 2 weights to plug a real hole for the Tigers with Joey LaVallee redshirting. That said, Gantt is the pick here. Gantt is currently undefeated for the Wolfpack and is coming off a win over Nick Brascetta. With all that considered, I don’t see Barnes vulnerable from a bonus point scenario. Barnes is yet to lose by bonus this year. He hasn’t faced cupcakes either. He has multiple matches against Luke Smith. He’s faced Palacio, Joe Smith and some other hammers. He hasn’t notched that big time win, but he really only loses to quality competition. Gantt will get it done, but no bonus.

Mizzou: 10
NC State: 6

165: #9 Daniel Lewis, Missouri vs #6 Max Rohskopf, NC State
I went on the record as picking Lewis on FRL. You can call me a flip-flopper here, but I’m reacting to new information. I just watched Rohskopf tech fall David McFadden (Who beat Lewis this year, interestingly). That head to head comparison actually has little to do with why I’m picking Max. His confidence and ability to get guys in the positions he wants to be in is what makes him dangerous. Scarily enough, Lewis may be more dangerous from the top position. He had #1 Dieringer and #3 Jordan on the ropes and happy to give up stall calls instead of falling victim to his cradle. I view Lewis as the knockout artist, able to lock up the pin at any point. Whereas with Rohskopf, I find his game a little more safe and likely to be replicated. Lewis is more comfortable firing off attacks, whereas Max will let you in and then go to work. I think this matches up well for Max. This and 141 are the biggest toss ups of the dual. Give me Max by decision.

Mizzou: 10
NC State: 9
Compare each 165's bout against David McFadden below:
174: #6 Blaise Butler, Missouri vs Nick Hall, NC State
This is where things start getting tough for NC State. The 74-97 trio have the potential to put this dual out of reach for the Wolfpack. One thing that Hall has is the ability to hold position and control ties exceptionally well. That said, I don’t see Hall able to threaten Butler offensively. He was able to slow down Epperly fairly well from the ties. I expect Blaise to win in similar fashion, with the caveat that Butler has the threat of ending the match with a bomb at any point in time. So while that threat will loom throughout, I see Hall staying out of those positions and only falling by decision to Butler.

Mizzou: 13
NC State: 9

184: #9 Willie Miklus, Missouri vs #18 Pete Renda, NC State
This one could present itself as must-win for the Wolfpack which is less than ideal. Renda has been in a lot of matches against tough kids but is still waiting to punch through for that big win. Interestingly, the big win Renda has to his credit is Nolan Boyd. Boyd recently took out Miklus in their dual. This fact may provide a slice of hope to NC State fans that he could make this interesting. I think we could have a high scoring match. I think a shoot out favors Miklus who has about 10 different ways to beat you. He can ride, score from his own attacks as well as re-shots, etc, etc. I think Renda will struggle to match that arsenal. I’ve got Miklus by decision.

Mizzou: 16
NC State: 9

Compare each 184's bout against Nolan Boyd below:

197: #2 J’Den Cox, Missouri vs #14 Michael Boykin, NC State
Depending on J’Den’s frame of mind, this one could teter between a decision and a major. At this point in the dual, a win seals the win for Missouri, so I don’t think we’ll see him come out crazy looking for the fall. Additionally, Boykin is very difficult to score on. He holds position well and works almost exclusively for a re-attack. Cox wins a comfortable, lopsided decision to ice it for the Tigers.

Mizzou: 19
NC State: 9

285: James Romero, Missouri vs #1 Nick Gwiazdowski, NC State
I won’t belabor the point. This is a huge mismatch. Gwiazdowski is as prolific a bonus point scorer as we have at the 285 pound weight class (though Joe Stolfi may disagree). Romero has been bonused 8 times in his 14 D1 matches. NC State is getting 6 here.

Final Score:
Mizzou: 19
NC State: 15

That’s how I see it playing out. It’s been discussed that Mizzou (who will bump up if need be) could use J’Den at 285. I just don’t think that A) It will be necessary. Or B) Would be fruitful. I don’t like the match up for J’Den taking on Gwiazdowski.

What I will say is that of the matches I believe are in the balance (125, 133, 141, 165, 184) there is real opportunity for NC State to take 125 or 133. With that considered and everything else playing out as I predicted that would be enough to give NC State the win. It’s going to be a fantastic dual from two of the best dual teams in the country. We’ll have all the matches up today after the dual so you won’t miss the action.