Back in late January I wrote an article detailing the current state of the Hodge trophy race.  In a few weeks, more than a few of the contenders have changed.
As we approach NCAA's, it is a perfect time to get back up to speed with who is poised 

The Hodge Trophy has 7 criteria:

1. Record
2. Number of pins
3. Dominance
4. Past Credentials
5. Quality of Competition
6. Sportsmanship/Citizenship
7. Heart.

Of the 20 undefeated wrestlers we listed in the last Hodge report, a whopping 11 have suffered losses in the last few weeks: Our previous favorite, Jason Nolf and #4 contender Gabe Dean both lost in addition to Brandon Sorensen, Zane Richards, Thomas Gilman, Adam Coon, Ty Walz, Nathan Burak, Bo Jordan, Lavion Mayes and Dean Heil.  

You could say that a guy with a loss has a shot at the Hodge, as we’ve seen examples of it before (specifically Metcalf in 2008).  However, I am not going to include one loss guys.  That was an outlier year where you had a bonus machine win the toughest weight in NCAA history (bar none) with only one undefeated guy, Keith Gavin, who didn’t score enough bonus frankly.

This year is different.  It would require Dieringer, Retherford and Gwiazdowski to all lose for a 1 loss to even enter the equation.  There’s no way that’s happening.  There’s also a laundry list of very tough undefeated guys that are on this list outside of the big 3 

What I’m going to do in this article is roughly project out what I think will happen if the trends hold out and each guy wins NCAA’s.  So essentially, they follow a similar bonus trajectory and win NCAA’s.

8. Isaac Jordan, Wisconsin, 24-0

Bonus Percentage: 41% 5 falls, 2 techs, 3 majors
Ranked Wins: Duke Pickett (decision), Chad Welch (decision), Austin Wilson (major), Steven Rodrigues (decision), Anthony Perrotti (decision), Bo Jordan (decision), Bo Jordan (decision)
Ranked win bonus percentage: 14%

I know, it’s a tad underwhelming in the bonus department for Zeke.  However, if the guy beats Bo again then, takes out Dieringer, you’re telling me he won’t get some votes?  The reality is these are relative longshots both to happen, but there are very few undefeated guys left and Isaac belongs on here, albeit as an unlikely choice.

7. Tommy Gantt, NC State, 24-0

Bonus Percentage: 54% 1 fall, 4 techs, 8 majors

9 Ranked Wins: Edwin Cooper (major), Chad Walsh (decision), Cody Pack (decision), John Boyle (decision), Dylan Cottrell (decision), Tyler Berger (major), Nick Brascetta (decision), Edwin Cooper (major), Nick Brascetta (decision)
Ranked win bonus percentage: 33%

Similar to the rationale for Isaac Jordan, if Gantt somehow gets through both Nolf and Martinez (I know, I know) he gets votes.  He’s not amazing for bonus and doesn’t pin much.  Even if he won NCAA’s, I’m not sure he has a realistic shot.  But he may garner some serious attention if he found a way to win.

Nolf and Gantt are no strangers, by the way:

6. Nathan Tomasello, Ohio State, 22-0

Bonus Percentage: 72% 3 falls, 6 techs, 7 majors

9 Ranked Wins: Paul Petrov (decision), Ryan Millhof (major), Joey Dance (decision), Barlow McGhee (major), Tim Lambert (major), Elijah Oliver (major), Nico Megaludis (decision), Tim Lambert (decision), Nico Megaludis (decision)
Ranked win bonus percentage: 44%

Things really start picking up here with NATO.  The strength of his weight class (criteria 5) and the fact that he’s a previous NCAA Champion (criteria 4) boost Tomasello up aplenty.  He needs guys like Gwiazdowski, Dieringer and Retherford to fall to get in the mix (Oh, and he’ll need to win his weight as well, minor detail).

5. Morgan McIntosh, Penn State, 27-0

Bonus Percentage: 77% 9 falls, 5 techs, 7 majors

7 Ranked Wins: Jared Haught (major), Reuben Franklin (major), Jake Smith (fall), Brett Pfarr (decision), Aaron Studebaker (decision), Aaron Studebaker (decision), Nathan Burak (decision)
Ranked win bonus percentage: 42%

McIntosh and Tomasello are quite close, but I gave the edge to McIntosh because of his pins.  If McIntosh were to win, he’d likely have to go through an NCAA Champion in J’Den Cox. I think that could give him an edge over Tomasello in the quality of competition department.

4. Nahshon Garrett, Cornell, 32-0

Bonus Percentage: 69% 9 falls, 7 techs, 7 majors

6 Ranked Wins: George DiCamillo (decision), Eric Montoya (major), Anthony Giraldo (decision), Cody Brewer (decision), Jordan Conaway (major), Gary Wayne Harding (tech),
Ranked win bonus percentage: 50%

Nahshon picked apart the reigning 133 champ.  For me this is just as much eyeball as anything.  NATO and McIntosh have had some tight matches this year.  Nobody has looked to be in the same league as Nahshon all season. His bonus rate isn’t as astounding as others, but I’d argue he’s as dominant as just about anyone.  His closest match all year was a 4-1 win over Emilio Saavedra and a 4-1 win over Caleb Richardson, in Nahshon’s first tournament of the year.  Since November 8th nobody has come closer than a 5 point loss to Nahshon.  Alex Dieringer (4-3 over Lewis, 4-2 over Weatherman) , Zain Retherford (2-1 over Clagon) and Nick Gwiazdowski (4-3 over Hall, 4-2 over Walz)  all have had some very close matches.  To me a guy who basically has never had a match come even down to a takedown tying it in the end is insanely impressive.

Here's Nahshon's incredible match against Cody Brewer:

3. Zain Retherford, Penn State, 29-0

Bonus Percentage: 86% 12 falls, 7 techs, 6 majors

10 Ranked Wins: Matt Cimato (major), Evan Henderson (tech), Alex Griffin (tech), Jake Sueflohn (major), Jason Tsirtsis (major), Alec Pantaleo (fall), Anthony Collica (decision), Jake Short (major), Alec Pantaleo (fall), Brandon Sorensen (decision)  
Ranked win bonus percentage 80%

Nobody has bonused at a higher rate than Zain this year (outside of Nolf, that is).  Retherford has continued his path of destruction through this weight class.  Things that are really outside of his control like his quality of competition and past accolades (Which can hurt FR/Soph cases) are what could potentially derail him from winning the Hodge.  It’s tough to compete with two guys going for their 3rd.  He’ll need to continue what he’s been doing and count on Gwiazdowski and Dieringer to lose.

2. Alex Dieringer, Oklahoma State, 28-0

Bonus Percentage: 85% 10 falls, 7 techs, 7 majors

9 Ranked Wins: Ryan Preisch (fall), John Staudenmayer (fall), Cody Wiercioch (fall), Daniel Lewis (dec), Tanner Weatherman (major), George Pickett (fall), Jim Wilson (major), John Staudenmayer (major), Tanner Weatherman(dec)  
Ranked win bonus percentage: 77%

Alex came into this season as the favorite for the Hodge.  While that wavered for a time, I think he’s back close to the drivers seat.  His bonus percentage is just a touch behind Retherford, but ahead of Gwiazdowski.  In addition to dominance, Dieringer has credential 4 going for him in that he’s already a 2 time champ with 1 career loss at NCAA’s.  He can only be matched in this area by Gwiazdowski, who is also looking to win his 3rd.  Dieringer cannot be blamed for his weight classes, but they haven’t been as formidable as 285 the last 3 years.  

1. Nick Gwiazdowski, NC State, 29-0

Bonus Percentage: 72% 10 falls, 5 techs, 6 majors

9 Ranked Wins: Mike Kroells (dec), Jared Johnson (major), Denzel Dejournette (dec), Austin Marsden (decision), Sam Stoll (major), Tanner Hall (dec), Ryan Solomon (major), Ty Walz (decision), Ty Walz (decision)
Ranked win bonus percentage: 55%

So the big man comes in at #1 right now.  Gwiazdowski is reaching incredibly rarified air going for 3 titles as heavyweight.  He had to beat outstanding competition in the past just to get to this point, including stopping a 2 time champ going for their third in Tony Nelson.  Bonus points inherently come much harder to the big men, yet he’s been able to come close to keeping in step with Dieringer in the pin department.  If he caps it off with another title which is all but guaranteed to go through Kyle Snyder, I think that gives Gwiazdowski the nod in criteria 4 and 5.  They will likely be more/less a wash in criteria’s 1,2,6 and 7.

Here's the win that got the streak started for Gwiazdowski: