Last year Ben Askren looked into the NCAA performances of six top programs. He compared their NCAA finish to their seed coming into the tournament. I added the 2015 results and will take you through the ins and outs of the historical data, as well as show you what the data means for this year’s team race.

I picked 6 teams to test- Penn St, Iowa, Minnesota, Cornell, Oklahoma St and my alma mater Mizzou. I looked at the last 5 years of NCAA brackets and scored each athlete how they placed according to their seed. Since many athletes are not seeded I counted all non seeded athletes as 16, meaning if there were unseeded and placed 7th that was +9. If they finished in the round of 12 I counted that as 12 and DNP was also counted as 16. I know this isn’t perfect, but I do not have a PHD in statistics. So without further ado, here are the results:

Year	Penn St.	Minnesota	Cornell	Missouri	OK State	Iowa
2009	-0.5	2	-0.7	-1.1	-2.7	-4.2
2010	0.2	-3.1	-0.4	-0.7	-2	0.5
2011	-0.1	-0.25	-1.8	-0.6	-2.2	-1.2
2012	1.1	0.33	1.66	-1.1	-1.1	-1.7
2013	-0.6	1.3	1.4	0.5	0.2	-1.4
2014	-0.2	0.3	-1.1	0.1	0.1	-2
2015	0.57	-2.25	-1.67	-1.5	1	-1.7
Average	0.07	-0.24	-0.37	-0.63	-0.96	-1.67

Before we start treading through the meaning of the numbers, there are some variables that can’t be controlled and skew the numbers from a true measure of a team’s peaking.

First the seeding, especially in last year’s matrix, isn’t always a true representation of how the wrestler performed leading up to the tournament. However, there is no perfect system to use when analyzing this data.

Next is the strength of the team coming into the tournament. A team with extremely high seeds can almost always expect a negative outcome. Number one seeds can only meet expectations and not exceed them. The programs Ben examined have had highly seeded wrestlers, but some have benefited by a “no lose” situation of unseeded wrestlers. They are scored as 16 in the seeding and can’t finish below that seed.

Finally, a highly seeded wrestler not making the round of 12 or an unseeded wrestler making All-American carries too much weight in one year. As more data is compiled the average will be a pretty good indicator, but a singular year can be swayed way too much by one individual's performance.

Penn State is the only team that has a positive average. This is incredible when you consider how many number one and two seeds they have had since 2009. Penn State’s best result was in 2012 when they were +1.1. The fuel for that number was Megaludis’ runner-up finish from the #10 seed. This is a good number, but the incredible part of Penn State’s numbers is that their worst performance is -0.6. That occurred in 2013 when they edged out Oklahoma State, who wrestled slightly ahead of seed. If Penn State is able to wrestle to their seed this year they will secure their fifth title in the past six seasons.
 
Oklahoma State has their process moving in the right direction. It would be interesting to hear someone on the inside elaborate on their training methods, and how they have changed from 2009-2015 in lead up to the NCAA Championships. Oklahoma State’s average is still one of the worst of the teams to be analyzed, but will be in the championship hunt Saturday in Madison Square Garden if their peaking trend continues.

Iowa has the worst results at the NCAA tournament in relationship to their seeds. The 2009 NCAA tournament produced the worst collapse of any team we analyzed. The amazing thing about that tournament is that they still won the team title by 4.5 points over Ohio State. Iowa had only one wrestler wrestle to his seed, and one wrestled above seed. The main part of their collapse saw two #4 seeds and a #5 seed fail to make the podium. They rebounded the next year to win the title by 40+ points and finish 0.5 ahead of their seeds. This is the only year in the data analyzed that Iowa has finished with a positive outcome compared to their seeds. Iowa will need to have drastically different results this year to even be in contention when the dust settles after the Friday night semifinal /bloodround session.

Minnesota won’t be a factor in this year’s team race, but there will be reasons to track the Gophers. Prior to last season they were the best team at wrestling above their seed. They had a rough tournament that was amplified by the Ness injury and Nick Dardanes finishing outside of the round of 16. Will they be able to get back on track? They are in great position to have a positive outcome due to their low seeds.

Cornell and Missouri have both had mixed results, but came up on the negative end of things when it mattered most for them. Cornell was the favorite heading into Philadelphia in 2011. Friday night they wrestled themselves out of title contention as Penn State seized the moment. Missouri wasn’t the same type of favorite Cornell seemed to be in 2009, but they almost match the Big Red’s -1.8 outcome compared to their seeds when they laid a -1.5 in their biggest moment. Without the pressure can there two teams excel at the 2016 tournament?