I’ll be rolling out 10 individual articles for each weight class starting today with 125.  This weight class brings both overall depth and extremely high end talent.  The story of this weight is the top 4 of Tomasello, Gilman, Dance and Megaludis.  It’s a tired cliche, but whoever is clicking next week brings it home, they’re that close.  

I’m going to break this down into multiple sections. I’ll outline my title contenders.  If you aren’t on that list, I find it incredibly unlikely that you have a chance at the finals, much less the championship.  I’ll also lay out my darkhorses.  Low seeds or unseeded wrestlers that I believe have a great chance to make a run.  Then I’ll get into my bracket breakdown and predictions.

Get familiar with the landscape of this weight by taking a look at the NCAA Brackets Here. 

125 Title Contenders:

Nathan Tomasello, Ohio State
Joey Dance, Virginia Tech
Nico Megaludis, Penn State
Thomas Gilman, Iowa

These top 4 have not lost to anybody outside this top 4 all year.  I don’t foresee that trend changing.  If it happens, I think it may be to Joey Dance.  More on that later.

125 Darkhorses:

For me, darkhorse is a combination of low-non seeded guys with a combination of underrated talent and an ideal draw to out-perform.
(15) David Terao, American
(12) Paul Petrov, Bucknell
Conor Youtsey, Michigan
Sean Fausz, NC State
(16) Elijah Oliver, Indiana

Early Upset Potential:

There are a number of seeded wrestlers that I believe are vulnerable in round 1.  From the top, Sean McCabe could make things tough for Oliver.  Templeman against  8 seed McGhee is not an ideal match up for Barlow after an hour weigh in.  You already know I expect Sean Fausz to make a run, it could start against #14 Joshua Rodriguez.  Dalton Macri is someone I’ll hold out hope for until the bitter end.  The talent is there, the unseeded Big Red wrestler will be facing #11 Ronnie Bresser. The big one, the one that had Cowboys fans take a deep gulp, is unseeded (and returning All American) Conor Youtsey against #6 Eddie Klimara.  Youtsey at 12-13 hasn’t followed up his All American year with sterling results. However, he has been wrestling tough and he beat Klimara last year 3-2.

CP’s Final Predictions:

1. Nico Megaludis, Penn State
2. Thomas Gilman, Iowa
3. Nathan Tomasello, Ohio State
4. Joey Dance, Virginia Tech
5. Eddie Klimara, Oklahoma State
6. Barlow McGhee, Missouri
7. Darian Cruz, Lehigh
8. David Terao, American

Round of 12: Paul Petrov, Bucknell (losses to Thomas Gilman and David Terao), Sean Fausz, NC State (Losses to Nico Megaludis and Barlow McGhee), Ryan Millhof, Oklahoma (Losses to Paul Petrov and Darian Cruz), Elijah Oliver, Indiana (Losses to Nathan Tomasello and Eddie Klimara)

So for a change of pace we’ll have the predictions before all the analysis. You see my picks, now I’ll let you know how I got there.  Out of the 8 spot, I like Terao.  Despite losing early to Joey Dance, I like Terao to go on a nice run in the backside beating McCabe, Schram and Petrov in the round of 12.  It’s a tough run with three loseable matches.  He’s 3-0 against Petrov historically.  I look for that trend to continue before losing to Barlow and Cruz in the 7th place match.  

For Cruz in the 7th spot, I think things set up nicely for the former All-American.  Cruz will have a tough round 2 match against the stingy Connor Schram of Stanford.  This is absolutely a match I worry about for Darian, but expect him to get by.  I believe he’ll fall to Dance in the quarter before beating Millhof in the round of 12.  Millhof finds himself in this spot in the bracket because of a loss I believe he’ll suffer to Paul Petrov in round 2.  Though Millhoff pinned him last time around, it was a defensive pin in an extremely close match.  Back to Cruz, though.  After he beats Millhof, I think he falls to Klimara then beats Terao (again) for 7th.

McGhee looks great right now.  He’s been quite re-attack reliant, but I’ve noticed him getting to legs more consistently.  An hour weigh in is difficult for him, but he’s been managing it well. I like him to make the quarters against Tomasello before taking out Sean Fausz in the round of 12.  There are a few scary matches along the way for Barlow.  He’ll need to beat Templeman round 1 then Dylan Peters (who beat him earlier this year) in round 2.  Don’t forget that Fausz gave him a battle in their dual this year.  Fausz has a tank that doesn’t quit and can be problematic on top.  I like Fausz to take out Josh Rodriguez in round 1  before falling to Nico.  Fausz will get through Fleetwood and then Bresser (another upset for Fausz) before losing to McGhee. Back to Barlow, after another tight win I see him beating Terao (who he beat at Vegas) before dropping to Dance.  Interestingly, Dance and McGhee had an OT match at Vegas.  What’s interesting is if Dance is in this match, it means he just dropped his semi to Nico.  We see guys have letdown matches after tough losses, so that cannot be discounted here.  There’s upset potential in that one.  But regardless, I’ll predict Barlow to fall there and to Klimara as well to take 6th

Klimara is a guy stuck between two tiers.  He generally beats the guys he should, but he never ventures towards that upper echelon.  Klimara has a clean run to the quarters provided he can get past Youtsey, who took him out last year.  After falling to Nico in the quarters, I look for him to beat Elijah Oliver in the round of 12.  Oliver is someone I think has great potential.  If he can beat McCabe in round 1, I like Oliver to take out Freddy Rodriguez and Dylan Peters (who I don’t think is clicking on all cylinders right now) before falling to Klimara.  Klimara will beat Cruz before falling to Tomasello in the consolation semi’s. Then I think Klimara takes out McGhee once again.  McGhee was unable to get to legs against Klimara last time around.  I’m not sure things are much different and Klimara finishes in 5th.

Here’s where it gets tough, the top 4. Joey Dance has taken out Tomasello, Gilman and Megaludis in the last two seasons.  However, he has a way of losing the rematch.  He beat Tomasello, then lost the next time.  He beat Gilman, then lost the next time.  Earlier this year he beat Megaludis.  See where I’m going here?  First of all, I worry about Dance’s path to make the semi’s.  While I’m not subscribing to the Freddy Rodriguez upset train over Joey, I do think that the combination of that match, then Terao, then Cruz is a pretty rough road for the 2 seed to make the semi’s.  Consider Gilman’s path of Fleetwood, Lambert and Millhof.  I think that’s a much smoother path to the semi’s.  Joey was getting ridden very tough by Nico before getting the late reversal to force OT.  Neither were very close to getting takedowns at any point.  Joey got the rideout in TB1 for the win.  I don’t see it following that path this time.  Nico will either find his way to a takedown, or ride more intelligently.  This sends Joey to the consolation semi’s where I expect him to take out McGhee before losing to Tomasello for 3rd.  Don’t misunderstand me, Joey can unquestionably win this tournament.  

I won’t waste your time with Tomasello’s path to the semi’s, just understand that he’ll be there Friday night.  So it’s very likely we’ll be seeing another Gilman/Tomasello match.  Last time these two faced it was a one takedown match where NATO finished a sweep single very effectively.  What’s lost is that the two haven’t faced each other in over a year.  What also may be lost is that the story going into that Big 10 title was how Gilman had owned this match up historically.  From several freestyle meetings to their match in the dual, it had been all Gilman.  It cannot be denied that Tomasello has jumped levels over the last year.  However, I think the problems that Gilman posed Tomasello still exist today. It’s a coin flip match, despite Tomasello’s excellence.  I believe it’s Gilman’s time to get it done.  His ability to take ground and control the hand fight could make the difference.  Whether it’s a re-attack td or a finish off his own single, I think Gilman finds away to win this one, if only by a point.  So that puts Tomasello in the consolation semi’s where I think he wrestles back for 3rd over Dance.

Here are a few of the meetings between Tomasello and Gilman:
I’ve already mentioned that I think Gilman beats Tomasello.  I love his path to the semi’s (I think I mentioned that already as well). Gilman is a pit bull in the hand fight who few people can stand and handle his pace.  I discussed why I thought he’d break through against Tomasello, but I’m less sure about his match against Nico.  Like his Tomasello bout, I believe this is a coin flip match.  This time, I think he comes up short.  Many may be encouraged that Gilman was able to get to legs against Megaludis.  The thing is, Gilman will have to try to finish on the splits again. Once again,I think he’ll come up short.  Gilman doesn’t finish quick and clean against the best guys, it takes him time.  Megaludis will continue to present those same problems. I’m not sure if Nico finds his way to a takedown or not, but I just picture him finding a way to win somehow and put a bow on a career that has had him extremely close to the mountain top.  I think he’ll go out on top.  That was my prediction at the beginning of the season.  And despite a loss to Dance and two to Tomasello, I think he puts it together this weekend.  These 4 are separated by miniscule amounts.  No combination of these 4 in any order is not explainable or possible.

133

A year ago this weight was the talk of the entire country. Ever since this year's CKLV, I think the conversation circled around "How can anyone beat Nahshon?" The way this bracket was drawn, the three most entertaining athletes in the weight all are on the top side between Nahshon Garrett, Ryan Taylor and Cody Brewer.

Get familiar with the landscape of this weight by taking a look at the NCAA Brackets Here.

As I did earlier today, I'll outline title contenders, dark horses and my top 12. For me, dark horse is a combination of low-non seeded guys with a combination of underrated talent and an ideal draw to out-perform.

Title Contenders:

Nahshon Garrett, Cornell
Cory Clark, Iowa
Zane Richards, Illinois
Cody Brewer, Oklahoma
Ryan Taylor, Wisconsin

Dark Horses:

Mason Beckman, Lehigh
Nathan Kraisser, Campbell
(10) Johnni DiJulius, Ohio State

I don’t know what it means that I have more title contenders than dark horses. Frankly, I think the list is far too long. Here’s how I came to it. It’s a 50/50 proposition in my mind that either Clark or Richards will make the finals. For that reason, they’re both included. Nahshon is the obvious favorite so he’s in. Brewer went HAM on this entire weight a year ago. However, the one guy that I think can athletically have a prayer of moving and making things difficult against Nahshon is Ryan Taylor. So I included him. Yes, the same guy that was 5-7 headed into Big 10’s.

Regarding the dark horses, there really is a very defined pecking order at this weight that I don’t see many guys with a chance to penetrate. Beckman and DiJulius have a long track record of big time wins, so they get included. Nathan Kraisser is more of a hunch/draw pick.

CP’s Final Predictions:

1. Nahshon Garrett, Cornell
2. Zane Richards, Illinois
3. Cody Brewer, Oklahoma
4. Cory Clark, Iowa
5. Ryan Taylor, Wisconsin
6. Jordan Conaway, Penn State
7. George DiCamillo, UVA
8. Earl Hall, ISU

Round of 12: Mason Beckman, Lehigh (Losses to Ryan Taylor and Nahshon Garrett), Dom Forys (Losses to Earl Hall and George DiCamillo), Johnni DiJulius (Losses to Cory Clark and Jordan Conaway), Nathan Kraisser (Losses to George DiCamillo and Nahshon Garrett)

Earl Hall has a nice path to the quarters provided he can get by All American Rossi Bruno. I think he does. I’ve always been a touch higher on Earl Hall than I should be, and that’s not going to stop now. He’s as talented as anyone, but he makes mistakes that keep inferior wrestlers in matches. Too many times he’s under the gun late in the match. That could come back to bite him here as the competition is extremely tough. I see him falling to Nahshon in the quarters then downing Dom Forys in the round of 12. I think he’ll fall to Taylor the next round then DiCamillo for 7th. He and DiCamillo have gone back and forth but by and large DiCamillo seems to have his number.

Here's why I'm not super worried about the Bruno match up with Hall:
DiCamillo is set up nicely to make a run to the quarters taking out Brady and likely Forys. Those are great match ups for George. Then he’ll have a very winnable match against Zane Richards, who he fell to a year ago. That said, I don’t think Zane falls there. So DiCamillo falls to a match against Nathan Kraisser in the round of 12. I have Kraisser beating Giraldo, losing to Garrett then beating Alber and Bruno before falling to DiCamillo. I think DiCamillo falls to Conaway again, though certainly their scuffle match indicates it’s very winnable for George.

Speaking of Conaway, his 5 seed is doing him no favors right now as he’ll have a very tough match against Ryan Taylor in round 2. Taylor beat Conaway not once but twice 2 weeks ago. I’m not expecting anything major to change on that front, so I have him falling in round 2. His path to place again is solid, however. I see him beating Dom Malone, Austin Eicher then Johnni DiJulius in the round of 12. Soon after he’ll have that DiCamillo match I discussed earlier before falling once again to Taylor in the 5th/6th match. It’s hard to beat a good guy 4 times in 2 weeks, so if there will be an upset, it may be in that match.

Conaway is NEVER out of a match:
Ryan Taylor is possibly the best athlete in this weight outside of Garrett. He can move incredibly well, is an excellent scrambler and has great hips. His season has not been great and he’s taken losses. He looked back to form to me at Big 10’s. If anything, I think 2 more weeks makes him all the more dangerous. I don’t think he’ll get the opportunity to test this out, but I believe he is the one guy who could make Nahshon at least SWEAT. He has the arsenal to put points up and can score in all three positions, including countering leg attacks. That said, the match up for Taylor against Brewer in the quarter is very difficult. He’s got the goods to do it, but I held off on that prediction. I believe Brewer will be a touch more disciplined in his exchanges whereas Taylor may be a tad too ballsy. After falling to Brewer I see Taylor falling to Clark. The last time they met was probably the best match of Big 10’s outside of IMAR v. Nolf. I think Clark gets it done again which sends him to the 5th place match against Conaway, which I already touched on. If there’s an out of nowhere, how’d he do that, how did this happen kind of finalist it could just be Ryan Taylor.

Check out his thriller with Cory Clark here:
The top 4 here is not as hard to sort out as you might think. I expect whoever loses the Richards/Clark semi to get 4th. I think Brewer is the 2nd best guy in the weight, but the bracket won’t allow that reality. I deliberated back and forth between Zane and Clark and wound up going with Cory. Their rivalry seems to go back and forth, and I felt Zane was doing a better job of getting to legs. It looks to me he’s a finish away from the finals. That sends Clark to the consolation semi’s where I like Clark to 2 on 1 and low single his way to the 3rd/4th place match. It was on full display last year that Brewer was a very tough match up for Clark. I don’t see that changing. Cory takes 4th, but is a hair away from the finals.

Here's the Richards/Clark Big 10 Final:
The Kaid Brock loss for Cody Brewer likely cost him a spot in the finals. When I watched his match against Nahshon, I saw a very one sided match that had one amazing throw by Brewer. The way Nahshon has looked and Brewer’s propensity to attack make it very tough road for Brewer. Perhaps Brewer tightens up his offense and picks his spots more, but I don’t see him keeping Nahshon off his legs enough. Combine that with Nahshon’s top ability and I just don’t see how he gets it done. Brewer’s path to the semi’s gets tough starting in the quarters where he’ll need to take out Ryan Taylor. In the consi semi’s I think Brewer handles Conaway, then Clark for 3rd. All this being said, you never know when Brewer could jump levels again like we saw last year when he torched the toughest weight in the NCAA.

Zane Richards has an incredibly high degree of variance for his tournament. I’m certainly predicting the very highest end of his capability by having him in the finals. The reality is he could go down in the quarters to DiCamillo, who beat him last year at NCAA’s. I think he is just a different guy from last years NCAA’s. Since that time he’s only suffered one loss and notched a win over Cory Clark. I think he wins the rubber match for this year's rivalry with Clark. Again, his ability to get to legs is just a little better than Clark’s. So that’s what sends him to the finals before being dealt with with little issue by Nahshon. Zane may be able to slow down things in the hand fight, but ultimately there’s too much offense from Nahshon. I do think Zane may be able to escape from Nahshon, however.

I mentioned in the Hodge Report, that while Nahshon hasn’t been quite as dominant in the bonus point department, he’s actually been the most dominant of anyone in the country. For nobody to have been able to come within a takedown of Nahshon is unreal. Guys haven’t been on his level all year, and I don’t see it changing the last week of the season. Nahshon cruises to the title, capping off an outstanding career for the Big Red.

141

Coming into this season it was clear this weight was wide open. To the point that there wasn’t even a clear #1 choice to start the year. Heil? Gulibon? Henderson? It was tough to say. Though things have changed tremendously in this weight and Heil emerged as the #1 guy, it is clear this is the most wide open weight at NCAA’s.

Get familiar with the landscape of this weight by taking a look at the NCAA Brackets Here.

I'll outline title contenders, dark horses and my top 12. For me, dark horse is a combination of low-non seeded guys with a combination of underrated talent and an ideal draw to out-perform.

Title Contenders:

Dean Heil, Oklahoma State
Joey McKenna, Stanford
Kevin Jack, North Carolina State
Anthony Ashnault, Rutgers
Micah Jordan, Ohio State
Joey Ward, UNC

Dark Horses:

Jimmy Gulibon, Penn State
15) Brock Zacherl, Clarion
Danny Sabatello, Purdue

For how wide open this weight is, I think there’s a more defined top 8-10 than people realize. It didn’t always appear this way, but as the season has gone on, I think that has become more and more the case.

CP’s Final Predictions:

1. Joey McKenna, Stanford
2. Dean Heil, Oklahoma State
3. Kevin Jack, NC State
4. Anthony Ashnault, Rutgers
5. Micah Jordan, Ohio State
6. Tommy Thorn, Minnesota
7. Solomon Chishko, Virginia Tech
8. Todd Preston, Harvard

Round of 12: Jimmy Gulibon, PSU (Losses to Preston and Ashnault), Joey Ward, UNC (Losses to Heil and Thorn), Steve Bleise, NIU (Losses to Chishko and Ashnault), Rick Durso F & M (Losses to Ward and Jordan)

For a few years now, Todd Preston has been the picture of consistency. Last year he was looking great all season before a nasty injury at EIWA’s cut his season short. Now he’s back and looking ready to place. I think he wins his round 1 match with Everett before falling to Solomon Chishko. Preston would have some work to do at this point but I see him downing Oster, Zacherl and Gulibon to place. His style is such that it really works against a variety of wrestlers. He can play it to the vest, but he also can roll around and scramble well. His upside is limited but I think he’s got a good shot at placing and a very favorable draw out of the 10 spot.

The way I have the bracket playing out has Chishko and Preston hitting twice. It’s tough to beat someone of a similar level twice but I think Chishko can do it. Despite some fears about his effectiveness down at 141 he’s made the weight like a champ all year with no letdowns, having only lost to extremely tough competition. I like Chishko to make the quarters beating Pongracz and PReston before falling to Chishko, who I believe is a very difficult match up for McKenna. That sets up a round of 12 match against Steve Bleise who I have losing to to Ashnault then beating Sabatello and Mecate before falling short in the round of 12. I think Chishko will fare well against Bleise then lose to Micah (for about the 6th time in his college career).

Pretty tough draw for Tommy Thorn hitting Micah in round 2. Micah won handily at Big 10’s. I think Thorn will struggle to open Micah up consistently. So assuming Thorn falls there, he’ll have a borderline diabolical run on the backside. I have Gulibon knocking off Manley, which gives Thorn a match against Manley in his first wrestle back. Then I have him taking out Meredith (who beat him this year) and then Joey Ward, who is the only guy this year to beat Dean Heil! I need to stop typing before I talk myself out of this pick. After his win over Ward, I have him beating Preston then falling to Jack and Micah Jordan for 6th place.

Micah is an interesting guy. If there’s a surprise champ/finalist in this bunch it’s probably Micah. Early in the season through CKLV, he was a dynamo offensively. He was relentlessly attacking and scoring tons of takedowns (He’s not even 10% of his older brother on top) and looked good from underneath. However, I’ve seen that activity level decrease in a number of matches. If he’s not pushing the pace and attacking, and he doesn’t have an elite ride, it makes him tough to pick to go on a very deep run. So I see Micah going through Everett and Thorn before falling to Jack. This certainly is not a prediction I feel especially confident in. Jack is just a cool customer and I think he’s got a few different ways to win a match. In the round of 12 he’ll down Durso who I have losing to Ward on the top side. After beating Chishko we have another toss up match for Micah where he’ll face Anthony Ashnault. I think Ashnault gets it done this time. We’ll see another rematch at this weight and for the 2nd time this tournament I predict Micah will face and defeat Tommy Thorn for 5th place.

Micah at CKLV:

Shnaulty certainly mobbed on the Big 10 field. However, it cannot be overlooked that in his quest for the Big 10 title he didn’t face Micah Jordan or Tommy Thorn. That is far from his fault, but it does lead me to temper expectations a bit. His path to the semi’s looks great, especially with Manley potentially going down early. Last year Heil beat Ashnault pretty decisively at NCAA’s. However, most people accept that Ashnault was a bit banged up for that tournament. Ashnault has a great variety of leg attacks, which is something I look for while evaluating guys, a variety in your arsenal. He’s got a few turns on top as well. However, I don’t see him being able to finish on Heil nor do I think he can ride him. So he falls there. That said, Heil plays with fire wrestling a lot of very close matches. There’s a chance it burns him before Ashnault or in this match. I’m just not ready to predict it. I have Ashnault falling to Jack in the match for third. Another 50/50 type of match. I really, really love this weight.

Ashnault's Big 10 Win:
Mr. Cool Kevin Jack checks in for me in 3rd. Jack is a notoriously smooth operator who admits he doesn’t get rattled. Jack has all the tools to win a national title. He is outstanding on the mat, particularly on top. Jack can counter well with ankle scrambles and is able to finish on a high percentage of his attacks. Jack could take some losses along the way as his draw is less than ideal. I could see him in the blood round, or I could see him in the NCAA finals. After beating Sabatello in round one, Jack will reunite with his former Wolfpack teammate Bryce Meredith. While there’s some familiarity there, there’s a reason Meredith transferred, his name is Kevin Jack. So Jack will have a tough match against Jordan. I just love the variety in his game. Micah off an hour weigh in on Friday Morning could be an issue. If he has a good cut and recovery, the strength of Micah could be an issue for Jack. I think McKenna is a little too fundamental for Jack. As I say that, I recognize that Heil who is a funk master has now beaten McKenna twice, so perhaps that’s a flawed rationale. So I have Jack winning a 50/50 match against Micah before dropping one to McKenna and taking 3rd place over Ashnault.

I’m having a hard time with this weight, I can’t deny. On paper, Heil looks like the most vulnerable 1 seed of any weight. Especially with a match against Joey Ward potentially looming in the quarters. While he’s now lost to Ward twice, I think Heil will find a way this time. He may not win off a scramble, but rather a leg attack of his own. I don’t think he can afford to wait around against Ward again. Match ups do matter, but I think it is very close between those two. Heil figures it out this time. That sets up a match against Ashnault that I think is a decent match up for Heil. Ashnault will attack, and I think Heil can exploit. That sets up a final against McKenna. Much like Ward has had Heil’s number, you could say Heil has had McKenna’s. However it has been by the slimmest conceivable margins. McKenna has been a finish away from winning both matches. Maybe I’m foolish to make this prediction.

So that leads us to McKenna, my pick to win 141. Certainly it could run afoul in the semi’s against Jack (or Micah if he makes it). I just love the safety of his game. He’s so hard to open up and he’s got a great double and single leg. He actually is a great, high percentage finisher. It just doesn’t look like that against Heil. So what I’m essentially predicting is one finish. One shot by McKenna that Heil doesn’t counter. Just one. Freshman McKenna wins a title for Stanford.

Heil/McKenna 1
Heil/McKenna 2:
Ward's win over Heil:

149

The 149 pound weight class started this year with a big 3 of sorts with Jason Tsirtsis, Zain Retherford and Brandon Sorensen.  As the year progressed, a much more defined pecking order began to form, starting with Zain Retherford cementing his spot as a clear #1.  Apart from Zain, Sorensen has been the most consistent 149 pounder this year.  Even #3 Lavion Mayes fell late to Michael DePalma.  Sorensen’s lone blemish came at the hands of Retherford.

Title Contenders:

Zain Retherford, Penn State
Lavion Mayes, Missouri
Brandon Sorensen, Iowa

Dark Horses:

Anthony Collica, Oklahoma State
BJ Clagon, Rider
Matt Kraus, Arizona State

CP’s Final Predictions:

1. Zain Retherford, Penn State
2. Brandon Sorensen, Iowa
3. Lavion Mayes, Missouri
4. Anthony Collica, Oklahoma State
5. Alec Pantaleo, Michigan
6. Jason Tsirtsis, Northwestern
7.Jake Sueflohn, Nebraska
8. BJ Clagon, Rider

Round of 12: Matt Kraus, Arizona State (Losses to Clagon and Pantaleo), Evan Henderson, UNC (Losses to Tsirtsis and Retherford), Matt Cimato, Drexel (Losses to Kraus and Sueflohn), Justin Oliver, CMU (Losses to Collica and Henderson)

I’m certainly ignoring most of the relevant information here with Clagon.  I have him dropping his round 1 match against Henderson (though I admit, it’s winnable).  A year ago, Clagon came in with a similar regular season (though he beat Habat at conferences), and wound up placing 5th.  You watch BJ go and he’s got all the tools to be not just an All American, but an NCAA Champion.  That said, he’s been shaky and drops matches that you wouldn’t expect.  A year ago I watched him look like a dynamo at NCAA’d and was like, “CP, you knew he was for real, and didn’t pick him.”  So now, I’m going with talent over results.  Clagon goes through Ream, DePalma, Neff and Kraus  on the backside to ensure AA status.  Then he’ll fall to Tsirtsis and Sueflohn for 8th.  

Clagon always wrestles Tsirtsis tough:
It’s high time Jake Sueflohn got on the podium and I think this is the year he does it.  He’s been good enough to place every year, to be honest.  He’s got a great motor, can get to legs wall and is a great scrambler.  He certainly has had trouble finishing at times and that limits how high I believe he can climb.  Look for Sueflohn to take out Galasso (that’s a pretty tough match up actually) then DePalma (another tough one against a better athlete) before dropping one to Sorensen.  In the round of 12 I have him taking out Matt Cimato who I believe could fall to Kraus in round 2.  If Sueflohn makes the quarters, I like his round of 12 match.  It will be someone like Cimato, Kraus, Geo Martinez  or Davion Jefferies.  Sueflohn >. After that, I think he’ll fall to Collica then beat Clagon for 7th.

Coming in 6th I like Jason Tsirtsis to finish a very tumultuous season on the podium.  He’s never quite been able to hit his stride this season, but he’s still been fairly tough.  Between the coaching change and other circumstances, I’m surprised Tsirtsis has been able to have such a solid season.  Certainly a 'clicking on all cylinders' Tsirtsis is a title threat, but that guy hasn’t been around all year.  I have Tsirtsis falling in round 2 to Collica.  This is certainly a winnable match and an upset pick, but I love Collica’s game (I’ve been perhaps TOO high on AC this year). After dropping to Collica I like him to take out Short (who he lost to this year), Finesilver and Henderson.  It’s really a tough draw.  If he could get by Collica and drop to Mayes in the quarter he has a far more manageable round of 12 bout.  As it stands, I have him beating Henderson in the round of 12 (brutal draw for Henderson having Zain in the quarters then likely facing Tsirtsis or Collica (who beat him this year) in the round of 12. So Tsirtsis will then beat Clagon (who always wrestles him tough) then falls to Mayes and Pantaleo for 6th.

Alec Pantaleo surged from fringe top 15 guy a year ago to a very tough, legitimate top 5 guy.  Two wins over Tsirtsis at Big 10’s caught many people’s attention.  Outside of two losses to Davion Jeffries, he’s only lost to Retherford and Tsirtsis.  He’s difficult to score on and has improving attacks.  I see him making the semi’s over Short, Martinez, Kraus and then losing to Zain and then Collica before beating Tsirtsis for a solid 5th place.

Anthony Collica is someone I claimed at the start of the year would have a great season.  Through some down performances, injuries and more, it wasn’t looking like that prediction would be coming true.  However, I’ve been quite encouraged lately.  Since the Scuffle in early January he has only lost to the 1 and 3 seeds Retherford and Mayes.  In that time he has looked fantastic and pinned 2 time All American Evan Henderson.  I trust not only Collica’s talent but Oklahoma State’s ability to peak their athletes. I have Collica beating Delgado and Tsirtsis before falling to Mayes again. In the round of 12 I believe he’ll have Justin Oliver then I think he beats Sueflohn and Pantaleo before falling to Mayes again for 4th.  I’m getting a little gutsier than normal picking both Clagon and Collica to place, but I feel good about it.

I listed Mayes as a title contender and I believe he may be a more likely choice to take out Retherford than Sorensen is.  That said, I find it extremely unlikely that he’d successful against Retherford, but his ability to not just get to legs, but blow through on his finishes gives me some thought that he could at least make things difficult for Zain.  If he hadn’t dropped his match to DePalma at MAC’s I may have predicted Mayes to make the finals.  A lapse like that suggests that Sorensen will be a significant challenge.  So I think he makes the semi’s, falls to Sorensen and beats Tsirtsis and Collica for 3rd. If Sorensen can’t get his hands on Mayes, it could be a long match for the Tiger.  Mayes takes 3rd.

It’s with a small amount of confidence I take Sorensen to make the finals.  Sorensen is having an amazing regular season is not an unfamiliar story.  A year ago he took out Kindig, Tsirtsis and others for an amazing regular season.  It’s not that he disappointed majorly at NCAA’s but his loss to Cobb last year causes me to wonder if he’ll have a letdown match.  That could be in the semi’s against Mayes who is incredibly dangerous. As it stands I have Sorensen getting by Barber, Neff, Sueflohn and Mayes to make the finals.  In the finals I don’t see a path to victory for Brandon.  Zain won’t be taken down or ridden.  Runner up finish for the excellent Sophomore from Iowa.

There’s really little to discuss here. Zain, by every measurement is significantly ahead of this field.  The question for me isn’t “if” he’ll win, it’s “by how much?” Zain could be poised to go “Full Dake” this year.  Going unscored upon in the NCAA tournament in 2011 (No, I’m not counting that lame penalty point in the finals against Molinaro.  My article, my rules).  If Retherford doesn’t want to give up an escape, they will not be issued in my opinion.  He could reasonably bonus his way to the finals before likely beating Sorensen by a similar score that we saw last week at Big 10’s.  Zain puts the finishing touches of a potential Hodge Trophy winning year.

157

It feels like this weight has dominated conversation all year long.  The IMAR watch endured for months, as we wondered when and if he’d lose.  Watching young stars like Jo Jo Smith and Jason Nolf emerge, and eventually wrestle each other made for incredible theatre.  Now the table has been set and it’s time to see who takes it home. 

Title Contenders:

Isaiah Martinez, Illinois
Jason Nolf, PSU

Dark Horses:

Brian Murphy, Michigan
LeRoy Barnes, Missouri
Chad Walsh, Rider
Dylan Cottrell, West Virginia

CP’s Final Predictions:

1. Jason Nolf - Penn State
2. Isaiah Martinez - Illinois
3. Joe Smith - Oklahoma State
4. Tommy Gantt - NC State
5. Ian MIller - Kent State
6. Nick Brascetta - Virginia Tech
7. Dylan Palacio - Cornell
8. Brian Murphy - Michigan

Round of 12: Chad Walsh, Rider (Losses to Palacio and Gantt), Austin Matthews, Edinboro (Losses to Brascetta and Nolf), Richie Lewis, Rutgers (Losses to Joe Smith and Brascetta)

Brian Murphy was 5-6 headed into the Big 10 tournament. Yet his performance at Big 10’s combined with knowing his nature as a competitor gives me confidence.  Honestly, I think he’s a potential bracket buster to the semi’s.  He will have tough, but winnable matches against Palacio and Ian Miller.  I picked Murphy to drop to Palacio but I assure you that is a winnable match.  Murphy has battled injuries through each year of his career but usually can get himself right by NCAA time.  He placed a year ago, and I think he does it again.  He’s not super physically imposing, yet he’s incredibly tough.  He can scramble well and ride on top.  I have him falling to Palacio then beating Jake Ryan, Edwin Cooper and Cody Pack for All American status.  Pack will certainly prove to be a tough match up.  I went back and forth on that one and decided on the guy who had done it before.  

It’s pretty well documented Palacio is one of my favorite guys to watch in the country.  He doesn’t know the meaning of a boring match.  Pretty much whoever he wrestles, he has a way of hemorrhaging points, but it rarely seems to matter.  Since withdrawing from Cornell in the first semester and returning in January he’s been pretty good apart from his loss to Theobold. He’s among the best overall athletes in the weight, he has uncanny body awareness and is maybe the most prolific reversal artist in the country.  Guys don’t even have a chance to cut him before he’s hitting a roll or a switch for 2.  Once on top, he can ride and turn very effectively.  He’s very predictable on his feet, going 2 on 1 to a post leg attack, but it works for him.  Dylan is a potential bracket buster as well, but I gave the nod to the more proven Ian Miller in that quarter.  After dropping that quarter I have Palacio taking out Chad Walsh in the round of 12 then falling to Brascetta the next round then beating Murphy for 7th.

Last year proved to me that Nick Brascetta doesn’t need a full season under his belt to place high at NCAA’s.  His 4th place showing while unseeded was  a strong performance bolstered by a forfeit against Dylan Ness on Saturday morning.  Brascetta finds himself in a similar spot in the bracket where he’ll have a winnable round 1 against Parsons before hitting Richie Lewis.  I expect this to be an extremely close match.  The stakes are incredibly high for this one.  If you win this round 2 match, you get someone like Austin Matthews or Luke Smith in the round of 12.  Lose here, and you will get the Nolf/Joe Smith loser.  The winner of the Lewis/Brascetta quarter places.  The loser will come up short.  I have Brascetta moving on as I believe he’s a touch more fundamental and defensively stout.  After falling to IMAR in the quarter I expect Brascetta to take out Austin Matthews then Dylan Palacio before falling to Gannt again.  In the 5th place match I have Brascetta falling to fellow Ohio native Ian Miller.

The biggest wildcard maybe of any weight is Ian Miller.  The 4 seed has been out of the spotlight for much of the year.  He won a relatively weak Cliff Keen Las Vegas and otherwise hasn’t faced hardly any ranked competition.  When he’s clicking, he’s the guy who makes NCAA Champs and finalists look silly.  When he’s off, he could fall to just about anybody.  Don’t misunderstand me, Ian has had far more good moments than bad.  But coming off of defaulting out of MAC’s is not great momentum. The Kent State toss monster I believe will take out Aaron Walker and Edwin Cooper before setting up a Palacio/Miller quarter.  I don’t think Dylan can get away with one mistake against Miller.  So Ian will hit IMAR in the semi’s.  It was close last year, but I think the champ gets it done.  That sends Ian down against Joe Smith in the consolation semi’s.  I think Joe will be able to avoid the elbow control ties against Ian and win that match sending Miller to the 5th place match where I expect him to beat Nick Brascetta for 5th.

Tommy Gantt is a real wildcard in this equation.  A year ago I watched a True Freshman Jason Nolf defeat him in a semi-close, semi one sided bout at the Scuffle.  I think we’ll see Nolf win again, but a part of me wonders if he can make things interesting there.  I think Tommy is used to giving up his leg a bit too much.  He can get away with his whizzer/over hook and length against just about anybody.  I don’t think that will be true against Nolf.  So I have Gantt beating Morse, Walsh and Pack before falling to Nolf, beating Brascetta then falling to Joe Smith for 4th place.  I do view that as a very winnable match as well.  Maybe I’m being a bit too dismissive of Gantt’s chances against Nolf and Smith.  NC State has been proving me wrong the majority of this season. What’s one more time?

The Joe Smith saga at Oklahoma State has been dramatic and exciting all season.  In redshirt he dazzled us, knocking off multiple ranked wrestlers and wrestling IMAR and Nolf as tough as anyone had all year.  As you would expect from a True Freshman, Joe can make tactical errors at times.  It cost him against IMAR giving up a reversal right into a 4 point turn.  His path is not an easy one.  After Jake Ryan he’ll have Luke Smith who wrestled him tough earlier this year then Jason Nolf.  I think Nolf beats him again but I certainly won’t deny their last match suggests there’s some upset potential.  After falling to Nolf, I think he runs all the way to the 3rd place match beating Richie Lewis, Brian Murphy, Ian Miller and Tommy Gantt for 3rd place.  That’s a brutal run, and I may be a tad overestimating Joe here.  After placing a loss to Murphy, Miller and Gantt shouldn’t come as a major surprise.

Smith v. Smith is no walk in the park:
I deliberated for a long time after their Big 10 final.  I decided on Nolf over IMAR.  IMAR and Nolf looked to be complete equals at Big 10’s.  Neither could really be ridden, both had their chances on their feet.  What encouraged me to choose Nolf is that he was able to get to legs on multiple occasions.  I think he finds a way to a finish this time.  Martinez looked very shaky in the opening rounds at Big 10’s.  Maybe one day we’ll find out what was going on that he needed late scores to beat Murphy in the semi’s, but for right now all I can do is speculate. What scares me about this pick is that IMAR’s mind and competitive spirit is such a powerful force.  He willed himself to victory.  With that considered, Nolf answered nearly every question and seemed to have a comparable will.  Martinez and Miller could be a very exciting semi, but I am not sure if Miller score with him for 7 minutes. That said, if TJ Ruschell can lateral drop IMAR, certainly Miller could as well.  I’m not going there though.  IMAR to the finals, only to lose a classic against PSU’s Nolf.

Up until IMAR got his hand raised at Carver, Jason Nolf was the Hodge front runner.  He lost in tiebreakers on riding time to Martinez.  I keep coming back to that, because it matters.  It’s a matter of one quick restart, one slightly quicker escape.  It’s not like he was ridden out, it’s not as though he was taken down (though you could argue that he was), he lost on criteria.  I think Nolf has to find his way to lower attacks, below the knee.  The hips of Martinez are amazing and extremely tough to finish one.  I think Nolf makes the necessary adjustments and finds his way to the takedowns he needs.  I know he won on a scramble 2 matches ago against Martinez, but after watching them at Big 10’s I think they are a wash in the scramble department.  Throw out their first meeting, that wasn’t the real IMAR.  This will be a classic, and potentially the best match of the year.  Two incredible talents coupled with unmatched competitive spirits.  Nolf has been better this season, so it’s a pick on that body of work.  Nolf gets it done.

165

Coming into this year the question was “Who can stop Alex Dieringer?” The answer so far continues to be the same: Nobody.  There are a few guys who can maybe make things a little more difficult for Dieringer, but all and all he looks close to untouchable.

Title Contenders:

Alex Dieringer, Oklahoma State
Daniel Lewis, Missouri
Isaac Jordan, Wisconsin
Bo Jordan, Ohio STate

Dark Horses:

Ryan Preisch, Lehigh
John Staudenmayer, UNC
Jim Wilson, Stanford

CP’s Final Predictions

1. Alex Dieringer, Ok State
2. Isaac Jordan, Wisconsin
3. Bo Jordan, Ohio State
4. Daniel Lewis, Missouri
5. Max Rohskopf, NC State
6. Steven Rodrigues, Illinois
7. Anthony Perrotti, Rutgers
8. Chad Welch, Purdue

Round of 12: Ryan Preisch, Lehigh (Losses to Rohskopf and Isaac Jordan), John Staudenmayer, UNC (Losses to Welch and Rodrigues), Jim Wilson (Losses to Lewis and Perrotti), Tanner Weatherman, ISU (Losses to Rodrigues and Welch)

Welch punches through for Purdue in what is a huge symbol for a program on the rise.  Welch has been up and down at times but is a dangerous pinner.  I expect Welch to take out Thomas and Weatherman before falling to Dieringer.  In the round of 12 I think he gets by a very tough Staudenmayer to ensure AA status.  This is a shaky match for sure for Welch.  I have him losing to Rohskopf next round and then falling once again to Perrotti.

Perrotti announced himself for this season with a win over Ethan Ramos in November.  Though he’s taken some losses along the way, he’s been very strong this year taking out Welch, Wilson and Ryan Preisch.  His forfeits at Big 10’s do give me some pause, and he can be very inconsistent. Falling to someone that is maybe below his tier shouldn’t come as a huge surprise.  As it stands I think he has a great road to the quarters over Przybysz and Austin Wilson (who he already beat).  Then he’ll fall to Isaac Jordan and likely face Jim Wilson in the round of 12.  This will be a tough match up as Wilson is extremely difficult to score on and can be punishing on top.  That’s definitely a dicey bout as well.  Should he get past Jim Wilson, I think Perrotti falls to Rodrigues before beating Welch once more for 7th place.  Perrotti is powerful and has some great attacks from his feet that make him dangerous against nearly everyone.

I think there’s some separation here starting now with the top 6.  Steven Rodrigues is one of the sneaky most amazing stories of the year.  From  a mid-tier 141 to a top 6 seed 165 a year later.  I haven’t seen anything like this.  I thought we could see Steven as the 4 seed or so, so getting the 6 makes things difficult.  He’ll take out Pickett then Staudenmayer (not a fun first two, really) before dropping to Bo who had little issue with him last time around. Rodrigues would likely face Tanner Weatherman or Chad Welch in the round of 12.  I think he has the advantage on his feet and beats either and then downs Perrotti next.  I think he will struggle with the strength, counters and top game of Lewis and drop to the 5th place match where I think Max Roshkopf also beats him, for similar reasons.

Crazy comeback for Rodrigues:
Rohskopf made a tremendous jump forward this year.  From a year ago when he was borderline rankable (for the most part he wasn’t) to this year where he became a fixture of the top 8.  He’s only lost to elite guys: Kyle Crutchmer (at 174) and Daniel Lewis.  To be fair, he didn’t wrestle at Midlands so he didn’t face as much elite competition as others.  He’s a fantastic counter wrestler from neutral and great on top.  He rides well with legs, side headlock and can get to his cradle consistently. I see him beating Reese and Brennan before falling to Lewis (bad match up) and beating Ryan Preisch to place.  After that I think he beats Welch but falls to Bo Jordan which will put him in the 5th place match.  I think he beats Rodrigues with his counters/top game.

Maybe this top 4 is more even than we realize?  Daniel Lewis gave Dieringer the toughest match of the season.  Lewis is a lethal pinner with cradles and can finish attacks against just about anybody.  Lewis has “Future NCAA Champion” written all over him, I truly believe that.  He took a weird loss this year in November but since then has been amazing.  I think Lewis has a great road to the semi’s.  I watched him firsthand take out Rohskopf.  As long as Jim Wilson doesn’t present some sort of weird stylistic match up, I think he cruises. Once there, I think it’s Dieringer who adjusts and widens the gap.  There’s no reason for Dieringer to take bottom now that he felt that heat from Lewis (who rode him for 4 minutes straight).  Dieringer controlled the neutral game with 2 takedowns in the first.  Even if Lewis takes top (which he will) and rides him out.  I think he’s going to be 4-5 points short this time around. So Lewis falls there but then takes out Rodrigues in the consi semi’s to punch his ticked to the 3rd place match.  Interestingly, Lewis gave Bo Jordan fits as well.  I think this one is winnable but I expect Bo to keep it neutral and handle the takedown game.  Lewis takes 4th in his Freshman debut.

Rohskopf v. Lewis:
I thought a year ago Bo Jordan would be potentially capable of taking out Alex Dieringer.  As it turned out, that wasn’t the case, but Bo turned in a fantastic 3rd place performance as a Freshman.  Bo seems to be on a similar level this year as well.  He seemingly can’t get over the hump against his Cousin.  In a vacuum, I always felt Bo was better than Isaac, but at this point with the standings at 3-0 Isaac, I can’t say that anymore.  They seem destined for a semi bout.  The matches (save the 2nd one which was all Isaac) have been very close.  So Bo winning is not out of the question.  I just don’t see it personally.  Jordan seems to have the answers and is just a little more assertive and stingy than Bo. Bo is likely looking at another 3rd place finish as I believe he beats Roshskopf and Lewis to take 3rd.  He’s extremely tough on his feet in the hand fight and among the best leg riders in the country.

Wisconsin fans should feel pretty comfortable with their big gun making the finals this year.  Preisch, Perrotti and Cousin Bo likely stand between Isaac and Dieringer.  I think Isaac has the potential to at least make things difficult for Ringer.  He’s stingy on his feet, but I fear he’ll lack the requisite strength/horsepower to keep Dieringer from getting to his ties (Which is also true for like, everyone Dieringer faces). I think he keeps it a little closer than Taylor Walsh did, but not by much.  Solid finals performance by Jordan who is now 3 for 3 getting on the podium.

The Hodge front runner Alex Dieringer looks poised to make history as he can cement his legendary status with a 3rd NCAA title.  If Ringer gets it done he’ll have lost a grand total of 1 match at NCAA’s.  An OT battle against Derek St. John (who he was 0-3 against, interestingly).  We are that close to talking about a 4 time NCAA Champion.  Dieringer is so strong, so positionally sound and such an efficient attacker, there’s very few holes that can be found in his game.  Even from bottom, only Daniel Lewis has had that kind of success against him in 4 years.  He is the NCAA’s unsolvable problem.  He’ll win here, and likely the Hodge.  He may be the biggest threat to Jordan Burroughs at 74 kilos as well.

Ringer's biggest threat?

174

This weight has the potential to be as entertaining and dramatic as any. Just looking over potential round 2 matches as well as round of 12 bouts, I think this could be the weight we discuss the most during and after NCAA’s. Nickal, Realbuto, Butler, Rogers, this weight is loaded with show stopping entertainers.

Title Contenders:

Bo Nickal, Penn State
Brian Realbuto, Cornell
Myles Martin, Ohio State
Blaise Butler, Missouri

Dark Horses:

Myles Martin, Ohio State
Nathan Jackson, Indiana
Alex Meyer, Iowa

CP’s Final Predictions:

1. Bo Nickal, Penn State
2. Brian Realbuto, Cornell
3. Zac Brunson, Illinois
4. Blaise Butler, Missouri
5. Ethan Ramos, UNC
6. Myles Martin, Ohio State
7. Zach Epperly, Virginia Tech
8. Nathan Jackson, Indiana

Round of 12: Cody Walters, Ohio (Losses to Ramos and Ottinger), Bryce Hammond, CSU Bakersfield (Losses to Epperly and Martin), Mike Ottinger, CMU (Losses to Jackson and Realbuto), Chandler Rogers, Oklahoma State (Losses to Martin and Epperly)

First, note that this is an incredible round of 12. Walters/Ramos, Hammond/Epperly, Jackson/Ottinger and Rogers/Martin will be incredible. I think of any weight, there’s a ton of room for variance here. Not only in this All American round, but even at the high end. Realbuto has looked as good as ever lately, but can be prone to being upset. Nickal looks like The Truth, but we’ve already seen him upset, and any Freshman at the big dance can have lapses. Someone who has proven to be able to beat some of the very best in Alex Meyer I have falling to Ramos in round 2 then Jackson on Friday morning in the round of 16. Maybe Meyer goes on a run, but we haven’t seen that yet this year.

Right out of the gate we have a super talented 174 pounder. Nathan Jackson got in the national eye when he took out Bo Nickal in their dual meet. He’s been up and down but wins over Meyer and Ottinger in addition to Nickal tell me he can go with just about anyone. He’s got fantastic leg attacks. His gas tank can be suspect. He needs to close out matches. Nate’s draw is tough as he has Brunson in round 2 who I view as a difficult match up. After falling to Jackson I think he takes out Wanzek and then Meyer. He’ll face Ottinger in the round of 12, who he’s already beaten. Myles has proven to have his number which will send him to the 7th place match where I think Epperly is a bit too fundamental for him.

Epperly is an interesting wrinkle here. He hasn’t competed much this year, yet still earned an 8 seed. He was handled by Nickal and lost close to Ethan Ramos in the ACC finals. I like Epperly’s round 2 match up against Rogers. Chandler is a home run hitter, but I think that could be problematic against Epperly who is extremely tactical and difficult to open up. He’ll control tempo and capitalize on Chandler’s mistakes. After falling to Nickal, I think Epperly will face Bryce Hammond. Epperly’s bottom work is strong enough that I think he’ll get away no sweat and earn All American status once again. He’ll have a tough draw against Ramos, who he lost to last time. He could win the rematch as Epperly can do well once he gets multiple cracks at an opponent. I’m still going with Ramos, however. Epperly beats Nate Jackson for 7th.

Myles Martin has crazy upside coming in. The true freshman took 3rd at Big 10’s and is in a dangerous spot in the bracket. A run to the semi’s through Butler can’t be counted out. I played it a little slow and have Blaise taking him out in that quarter. Hammond may present Myles with a challenge, but I think Myles has been better this year. After falling to Butler, I see Myles beating Chandler Rogers in what may be the best round of 12 match of the year! It could go a multitude of directions and whoever wins it could go on a nice run through the consolation bracket. I tempered expectations and have Myles beating Rogers and Jackson (who he’s done great against this year) before losing to Brunson and Ramos for 6th. I see Brunson and Ramos as difficult but winnable matches, Ramos especially.

Ethan Ramos (and a lot of the UNC Tarheels) committed to a mid-year weight change this year and so far it has really paid off. He had a runner up finish at the loaded 174 pound Scuffle field. He came up short against Bo, but really had a nice showing for himself. Some have speculated that Meyer could give Ramos a scare in round 2, but I don’t really subscribe to that. I think Ramos is a bit too strong and athletic for Meyer and is as hard nosed as anyone in this field. I think Brunson gives Ramos some issues from the top position and wins that quarter, though I believe that’s a winnable match for Ramos. He’ll have a round of 12 match against Cody Walters, who is extremely tough as well. I think Ramos will have the advantage from neutral and will be able to get away from Walters on bottom (I say that without a ton of confidence, by the way). After that win I think he knocks out Epperly once more before falling to Butler. Another winnable match for Ramos. In the 5th place match, I think he’s a little too fundamental for Myles and takes 5th place for the Tarheels.

Blaise has long been one of my favorites. From his time at UVA where he was hitting headlocks and throws as a ginormous 157 pounder to his time at UVA and Mizzou where he’s been a great 174 pounder. Of note, he’s had close battles with Realbuto before in an OT classic from a few years back. Both guys have made strides since. Butler could have a real challenge against Martin before he gets to Realbuto. I have him winning that, but like with many of these matches, contrary results are very possible. Butler and Realbuto will both roll around, perform high-risk holds and look for the knockout punch. I think Realbuto is just one scramble better and his top work scares me against Blaise. So I think Blaise drops that semi only to beat Ramos and fall to Brunson for 4th.

2013 Realbuto v. Butler at 157:
Outside of his completely random loss to Nick Wanzek, it’s been a great showing for Zac Brunson. As I write this, I’m a little worried about his lack of wins. Meyer and Jackson are likely the best wins he can boast this year. For me it’s in the deed. I think he’s among the most complete wrestlers in this weight. He’s outstanding on top and can get to legs against nearly everyone. Nickal picked him apart, but he’s done that to just about everyone this year. I like him to run to the semi’s through Jackson and then Ramos. As has been a theme for this weight, not a ton of confidence there. What I am confident in, is that Bo Nickal will take out whoever makes it that far. After Brunson falls in that semi he’ll take on Martin, who will definitely be game, but I think falls here. Then I have Brunson taking out Blaise for 3rd. I have this guy getting third and if he fell in the round of 12, I wouldn’t bat an eye.

Brunson v. Jackson at Reno TOC:
The Scuffle was Brian Realbuto’s worst performance of the season. He took a stunning 3 losses there to Bo Nickal, Casey Kent and Kyle Crutchmer. Since that time Realbuto has been on an utter tear. He smashed Kent in his rematch later that year and dominated Chandler Rogers who gave him a tough match at the Scuffle. So even though we saw Nickal win 14-7, you can’t view Realbuto as a major underdog. For one, recall that the match was largely back and forth. Nickal put the match more out of reach with a late turn in the 2nd. Realbuto had success scoring leg attack takedowns, he could win in scrambles as well, though this was an area where Nickal proved to be dangerous. Nickal took risks, real risks, and he’s not going to stop doing that at this point. It’s part of what makes him great. The potential for Realbuto, who may be the best scrambler at this weight, to catch Nickal in a scramble exists. A 6 pointer could be in the works for Realbuto. As someone who owns Nickal in a fantasy league, this is a scary, scary match up. Don’t count Realbuto out. I’m not saying don’t count him out in the “well he’s got a punchers chance” type of thought process. I think he has the potential to out-point him. But I’m not picking that.

Last time we saw Realbuto:
Bo Nickal has been must see TV the entire season. When he completely shut down Epperly early in November, I knew there would be problems for 174. Apart from a pretty weird (and I’ll say it, flukey) loss to Nathan Jackson. Bo Nickal has looked as good as anyone in the country at any weight. There’s not one position where you’re safe against Bo. If you attack him, he can chin whip you, out scramble you, stuff you or anything in between. If he attacks you, he’s got about 5 different directions he can go: Upper body, duck unders, throw by’s and low ankle attacks. On top he’s got some great tilts as well as cradle’s and on bottom he is incredibly dangerous, always looking to get reversals and turns from underneath. He’ll hit tough guys on the way to the finals, but Epperly/Rogers and Ramos/Brunson have either been handled (Epperly, Ramos, Brunson) or would be handled (Rogers) by Nickal. So I see him making the finals then taking out Realbuto. A match similar to their first meeting wouldn't surprise me. That doesn’t mean I think Realbuto gets doubled up. It means I think it will be a back and forth flurry-fest. Bo takes his first title by a few points over a game Realbuto.

Best of Bo:

184

Each and every year it’s a common fan discussion: Which is the toughest weight?  I believe that this year (and maybe last year) we have seen 184 as the toughest weight.  Not only does it have the depth that rivals 141, but it has proven competitors across the board.  While this weight has a big favorite, beyond Dean, there are infinite combinations for placement that are reasonable.

Title Contenders:

Gabe Dean, Cornell
Vic Avery, Edinboro
Zack Zavatsky, Virginia Tech
Nolan Boyd, Oklahoma State

Dark Horses:

Pete Renda, NC State
Nate Brown, Lehigh
Lorenzo Thomas, Penn

CP’s Final Predictions:

1. Gabe Dean, Cornell
2. Vic Avery, Edinboro
3. Nate Brown, Lehigh
4. Zach Zavatsky, Virginia Tech
5. Blake Stauffer, Arizona State
6. TJ Dudley, Nebraska
7. Mat Miller, Navy
8. Pete Renda, NC State

Round of 12: Domenic Abounader, Michigan (Losses to Dudley and Zavatsky), Lorenzo Thomas, Penn (Losses to Miller and Stauffer), Nolan Boyd, Ok State (Losses to Stauffer and Miller), Sammy Brooks (Losses to Renda and Brown)

I went on and on about the round of 12 matches for 174, but this one may take the cake.  Shoot, the round of 16 before it will be amazing as well.  Nolan Boyd is in a tough spot with this draw.  A different spot in the bracket, and he could be a finalist.  Miller controlled him last time and won 11-6.  I don’t know if that will be reversed.  So the Dean/Boyd rematch may not even happen. Still, he has to be considered a very interesting component here.  

Pete Renda has had some very nice moments this year, he’s beaten Nolan Boyd, Sammy Brooks and Willie Miklus.  At times, he can have letdown matches as well.  I think he has a real shot at the quarters and consider him to have a chance against Abounader in round 2.  Even if he drops that one, I like his wrestleback path through Greigo, Zilmer (tough, tough match) and then Brooks in the round of 12.  Renda would get the Brown/Dudley v. Brooks loser.  I think that loser will be Brooks, and we’ve already seen what he can do against Brooks.  I see him falling to Stauffer and then Miller for 8th.  If he beats Abounader, He’ll have someone like Dudley in the round of 12.  That could be a slightly tougher match for Renda.

Potential Round of 12 rematch?
Mat Miller is possibly the most prolific pinner in this weight class.  The Navy 84 pounder has 18 pins and counting.  He’ll be a favorite against Boyd, but the way Boyd has looked recently, this is still a scary match up.  I have Miller falling to Dean then beating Lorenzo Thomas to ensure AA status.  The two split this year with Miller having won the most recent match.  I think Miller falls to Dudley and beats Renda for 7th.  

Boyd/Miller was fun at the Scuffle:
TJ Dudley out of the 7 spot was someone I had major expectations for coming into this year.  He may have taken a slight step up in terms of consistency, but he still has lapses that prevent me from picking him to make the finals.  He’s a great scrambler, but sometimes can too easily give his legs up.  He also is ferocious with cradles on top.  I see him falling to Brown in a match he won earlier this year.  On the backside Dudley will take out Utley, Gravina (who beat him this year), Abounader and MIller before losing to Brown in the consolation semi’s.  I also think he’ll struggle with Blake Stauffer, for 5th but he’s got enough tools that if he gets a lead, I don’t think Stauffer can run him down.

Stauffer is a tough guy to place considering his path.  Kenny right out the gate, then Thomas, then Avery.  I see him making the quarters, but a slip up is entirely possible, especially since he wrestles such close matches.  Avery I think will continue to be a tough match up for him and I think sends Stauffer to the round of 12 where I expect him to beat Nolan Boyd.  I think he takes out Renda to hit the consi semi’s where I think he falls again to Zavatsky but beats Dudley for 5th.

Zavatsky got a rough draw out of the 5 spot.  Nevermind that he should be seeded higher.  He’s got a very tough round 2 match against Zilmer who beat him this year.  I think he takes out 2 guys who beat him this year going through Zilmer and then Abounader.  Both his matches with Abounader have been very close with ZZ having the apparent “edge” on eyeball, but Abounader has been getting his hand raised.  Zavatsky is better on his feet than all these guys and a better overall athlete in my opinion. So he makes the semi’s where I think Dean will be too much for the Freshman.  Then Zavatsky will take out Stauffer once again before falling to Brown for 4th.  Zavatsky could reasonably lose to Zilmer and have to go through Courts, Renda and the loser of the Brown/Dudley v. Brooks quarter to place.  Tough road either way.  High degree of variance for ZZ Top.

ZZ v. Abounader rd 1:
Not a lot of returning finalists out of the 10, but that’s what’s up for Nate Brown.  Not a great showing at EIWA’s, but I like the way the bracket sets up for him to make the semi’s.  Against Avery, I think he’ll struggle to find the necessary openings for his leg attacks and I think Avery will just be one takedown better.  Envision the Avery/Stauffer match, and I think we’ll see something similar for Nate. So he drops there, and I think he rattles off two more over Dudley (for maybe the 2nd time this tournament) then Zavatsky.  Nate isn’t going to go takedown clinic on anybody, but he can certainly keep things close and win with his positioning and scrambling ability. Brown finishes his career with 3rd.  

I complained about Avery’s seed, I said it was too high.  I stand by that.  Those statements were not a reflection of his ability, however.  I think Avery is maybe the only guy who can beat Dean in this tournament.  He’s so incredibly strong for this weight, he can match Dean in the area where nobody else can: horsepower.  His road to face Dean is difficult.  He’ll have to get by Miklus, Stauffer and Brown (likely) to make the finals.  I think he does, only to fall close to Gabe Dean in the finals.  While he can match Dean’s strength, I think Gabe has better leg attacks and weaponry to get it done.

Dean looked amazing at EIWA’s, especially in his finals match against Mat Miller which he ended in around 40 seconds.  Dean had his lapse this year against Boyd. It doesn’t concern me at all, nor does a potential match up.  On paper, Boyd doesn’t actually match up all that well against Gabe.  He got the win, but I’d bet a shiny penny he won’t be able to do it again.  Dean has every tool to go back to back.  Pace, strength, takedowns, re-attacks.  Hard to find a hole in his game.  Dean is running the table once again.

NCAA Finals preview?

197

This weight has had 2 big dogs coming into the year that looked to be significant favorites coming into the season.  Nothing really has changed on that front as rivals J’Den Cox of Missouri and Morgan McIntosh from PSU have been unblemished throughout (Save J’Den’s DQ against Wellington).  There’s real separation of talent in this weight which could potentially yield some surprise All American’s.

Title Contenders:

J’Den Cox, Missouri
Morgan McIntosh, Penn State

Dark Horses:

Pat Downey, Iowa StatePreston Weigel, Ok State
Michael Boykin, NC State
Scottie Boykin, UTC

CP’s Final Predictions:

1. J’Den Cox, Missouri
2. Morgan McIntosh, Penn State
3. Conner Hartmann, Duke
4. Brett Pfarr, Minnesota
5. Nathan Burak, Iowa
6. Jared Haught, Virginia Tech
7. Michael Boykin, NC State
8. Aaron Studebaker, Nebraska

Round of 12: Max Huntley, Michigan (Losses to Burak and Harner), Pat Downey, Iowa State (Losses to Studebaker and Haught), Brett Harner, Princeton (Losses to Michael Boykin and J’Den Cox), Scottie Boykin, UTC (Losses to Haught and Rotert)

Nebraska’s Studebaker has had a nice run for himself this season.  He’s like a lot of Nebraska’s guys this year.  Very tough, but could easily fall off the podium.  I think Studebaker takes out Sprenkle and Franklin before falling to McIntosh.  In the round of 12 he’ll have his hands full against Downey, but I think his pace gives him the edge over Downey who hasn’t been in the mix all season for Iowa State.  Afterwards, I think he’ll fall to Burak and Michael Boykin for 8th place.

Boykin is likely my biggest wildcard for this bracket.  He’ll have to pull more than a few upsets to earn a 7th place finish.  Boykin will have a long road after falling to Hartmann in round 2.  I have Michael going through Wellington, Weigel and then Brett Harner.  Harner is a very interesting guy to look at.  You see his 33-3 record and think ironclad stud who is unlikely to be defeated.  However a deeper dive shows just one win over a top 10 seed (Studebaker, who he split with) and losses to Ryan Wolfe and Michael Woulfe.  So you can say he’s been solid, and you could say he’s just is intimidated by wolves in general.  No wolves, no problem?  Perhaps. I think Boykin downs him in the round of 12 before falling to Haught.  This sends Boykin to a very winnable match against Studebaker.  He had Studebaker beaten before giving up a takedown as time expired.  

Jared Haught has gone from a borderline NCAA qualifier a year ago to a top 6 seed.  Having watched a lot of Haught through the years, I’m not terribly surprised.  Frankly, if he pulled the trigger more on his leg attacks, I think he’d be all the more dangerous.  Haught’s draw is no cakewalk, but I think he navigates through Wheeler and Downey before dropping a match to Pfarr.  He was right in the match with Pfarr last time around but he didn’t give himself many opportunities to score.  After dropping his match to Pfarr, I think he beats Scottie Boykin and Michael Boykin (no relation) back to back.  He’ll face an old nemesis in Hartmann who sends Jared to the 5th place match where I think he loses once more to Nathan Burak of Iowa.

I believe there’s a strong top 5 in this weight.  The 3-5 spots could fall in a variety of different combinations.  Pfarr and Burak have split, Hartmann lost to Pfarr, but we’ve seen Hartmann can go with the best before as he’s taken out McIntosh previously.  I settled with Burak coming in the 5 spot.  I think he falls to both Hartmann in the quarters and Pfarr in the consolation semi’s.  I could see him notching a win in either one of those bouts, especially the Pfarr match. Hartmann I believe presents a match up problem with his ridiculous athleticism and scrambling.  So Burak caps off a great career with another All American performances for the Hawkeyes, his 3rd straight.

Pfarr has looked fantastic up at 197.  He knocked off Hartmann and has been racking up bonus points along the way.  I see him running to the semi’s before being dropped by J’Den, who is not a good match up at all for Pfarr.  Then we’ll have the Burak/Pfarr coin flip and the Pfarr/Hartmann coin flip for 3rd.  I think Brett drops this one this time around.  Last time they hit it was 1 shot apiece.  Pfarr finished (controversially) and Hartmann didn’t.  I think we could see it go the other way this time.  Obviously it’s with a low degree of certainty I make this pick.

Duke’s Conner Hartmann jumped onto the scene almost exactly two years ago when he made a run to an All American finish from out of nowhere.  The Washington native has a great style to watch.  He can attack legs, scramble and ride extremely tough.  He took out Morgan McIntosh last year at NCAA’s and it’s for that reason that I think he will place third here again.  He’s as complete as anyone outside of the J’Den/McIntosh tier.  While he’ll drop matches that others won’t, I think we’ve seen he puts it together in March.  That’s what we’ll see one last time as Hartmann finishes 3rd to cap off his career.

Morgan McIntosh can do it. He really can.  I just don’t think he will.  I’m practically certain this will be our final.  We can all at least agree they’ve been the two best all year long.  McIntosh has been among the leaders in the country for bonus point victories.  I think he gets by Wolfe, Conel and then hits the rematch against the Hartmann/Burak winner.  McIntosh will hope for Burak as that’s been a better match up for the Californian than Hartmann.  Either way, I give him that win and a trip to the finals.  The problem is he’ll be facing J’Den who is a brutal match up for him.  J’Den is 3-1 against McIntosh during their college careers.  Cox has been a handful from the top position, riding like a blanket and threatening a cradle at all times.  From neutral, McIntosh has struggled to find openings apart from his lone win last year at NCAA’s.  J’Den was also coming of the gutting semi final loss to Kyle Snyder.  We’ve seen guys have the “Drop down blues” time and time again.  I’m not saying that’s what happened, but it should at least be considered. I look for J’Den to go unchallenged to the finals.  I don’t see anyone pressing him outside of McIntosh.  Once there, I’ve outlined the reasons I like J’Den to win.  I think that’s how it plays out and J’Den wins his 2nd NCAA title.

J'Den v. McIntosh:

285

Starting this year, this weight was looking to be more about the coronation of a legend.  Nick Gwiazdowski would be going for his third title against a field he had already bested, and frankly dominated a year before.  Many of Nick’s biggest potential opponents graduated last year. Everything changed on New Years day when Ohio State changed their plans and brought Kyle Snyder out of his Olympic Redshirt.  The Buckeye’s plot twist added a wrinkle in this weight class that few ever considered.  Gwiazdowski was trying to make history, now standing in his way the youngest World Champion in US history.  

Title Contenders:

Nick Gwiazdowski, NC State
Kyle Snyder, Ohio State

Dark Horses:

Tanner Hall, ASU

CP’s Final Predictions:

1. Kyle Snyder, Ohio State
2. Nick Gwiazdowski, NC State
3. Ty Walz, Virginia Tech
4. Austin Marsden, Ok State
5. Adam Coon, Michigan
6. Amar Dhesi, Oregon State
7. Max Wessell, Lehigh
8. Denzel Dejournette, App State

Round of 12: Joe Stolfi, Bucknell (Losses to Coon and Dhesi), Sam Stoll, Iowa (Losses to Wessell and Dejournette), Tanner Hall, ASU (Losses to Dhesi and Walz), Mike Kroells, App State (Losses to Dejournette and Wessell)

For starters, let me say that my Stoll prediction is 100% rooted in his current state of health.  He didn’t look to be the same guy at Big 10’s and that’s what I’m basing this off of.  If he was right, I think he makes the quarters no problem, beats Kroells in the round of 12 and maybe Dhesi in the next round.  If Sam comes out and looks good, he could place 6th very reasonably.  Just don’t think that’s what we’ll see.

I’ve gone back and forth on this 8 spot between Kroells and Dejournette.  Re-watching their Scuffle semi, I think I favor Dejournette in the rematch as well.  I felt he took ground and pressured Kroells very well.  Also, he did a great job effectively defending a nice single leg from Kroells.  So I have Denzel beating Black and Stoll before falling to Walz then beating Kroells in the round of 12.  This could very well be Max Wessell, which should be a tougher match up, but equally winnable.  I think Dejournette falls to Dhesi and Wessell for 8th place.

The Lehigh coaching staff has done a great job with Wessell keeping him healthy and clicking throughout the year.  His durability has often been an issue but he looked great at EIWA’s.  His physique is really the elephant in the room when he takes the mat.  He’s as put together as anyone in this weight.  He has incredible agility along with a great feel in upper body ties.  I think he beats Kroells in round 2, though that’s been a back and forth affair historically.  He’ll fall to Gwiaz but beat Stoll in the round of 12.  Afterwards I think he falls to Coon who is a bad match up stylistically for Wessell.  Then I believe Max will take care of business against Dejournette for 7th place.

Amar Dhesi came in this year as maybe the one guy people speculated could give Gwiazdowski some trouble.  His athleticism and leg attacks made him at least an interesting discussion point.  Since then Kyle Snyder has come back and we have seen Dhesi fall to Fagiano, Hall and Coon.  It quickly ceased all discussion that Dhesi could be the guy to stop history.  Still, Dhesi has had a strong year and won a very tough Pac 12.  His draw is tailor-made til he hits Snyder.  Stolfi is not going to be at 100% against Dhesi.  Even if he were, it’d be a difficult match up (though Dhesi’s bottom issues combined with Stolfi’s tendency to turn just about everyone is intriguing).  I have Dhesi getting it done since he’s more healthy.  In the round of 12 he’ll have another match against Hall that I think he wins (though Hall snuck one on him at Midlands) as well as a win over Dejournette.  He’ll run into trouble against Austin Marsden and Coon and settle for 6th.  Coon has struggled with him in Freestyle, yet in folk it was Coon who dominated Dhesi last time around.

Coon checks in at the 5 spot after another strong year.  Coon spent time training and competing at Greco as he looks to make the 2016 Olympic team.  I think Coon is stuck in the 5.  Watching him against Marsden last year and Walz through 3 matches, it seems like those match ups will continue to be difficult for him to win.  Likewise, there’s really nobody behind him that I view as a threat to Coon.  He has yet to develop a strong, go to leg attack.  That has hurt him.  Guys who can clear his hooks and attack his legs have success.  I think he makes the quarter before falling to Coon.  Coon will then run through Stolfi, Wessell and then fall to Walz and beat Dhesi for 5th.  I’m not indulging the Dhesi > Coon conversation at this point.  Freestyle and Folkstyle are different.  

2 years ago Marsden had a pretty poor regular season, yet placed.  Last year he had a great regular season, yet found himself off the podium.  I think he puts it all together this year with a top 4 showing, his best to date.  Marsden was nearly surgical in his domination of Coon a year ago.  I don’t see anything having changed between either guy to suggest a different outcome.  I think he hits the semi against Gwiazdowski where he will at least make Nick work, but won’t be able to threaten.  Gwiaz will ultimately triumph sending Marsden to a match against Dhesi, that I think he wins.  The Walz/Marsden bout will be interesting and is toss-up material.  I’m siding with Walz, who knocked Marsden off last year at NCAA’s. Marsden closes out his career with a 4th place finish.

Walz has continued to evolve in year 3 at Virginia Tech.  I’ve mentioned elsewhere that his draw is suboptimal.  Hall really pushed him at VA duals, and Cabell is 2-1 against him historically.  Things get no better/worse in that quarter against Dejournette.  All in all we have 3 difficult matches, but matches where Walz should be the winner all the same.  

I don’t give him much of a shot against Snyder, but there are some important things to observe in this semi.  Walz has some similarities to Gwiaz in terms of style.  He likes to operate from space and utilize fakes/motion to get to legs.  Gwiaz is a superior version of this, obviously, but Snyder’s ability to deal with Ty will tell us a lot about how he will do with Gwiaz.  If Walz avoids ties against Snyder effectively and Snyder can’t get to legs frequently, I may consider changing my pick.  If Snyder is slapping collar ties and getting heavy steps from Walz, I’m continuing to feel comfortable in my Snyder > Gwiazdowski prediction.

Back to Walz, I think Ty takes out Coon for the 4th time in the consolation semi’s then Marsden for 3rd.  Walz has proven to be extremely difficult to takedown and has been able to get to his low single and high crotch against just about anybody. Additionally, his agility makes him difficult to take down.  3rd is the spot for Ty, but it won’t be easy.

I’ll be honest, this match up has kept me up at night.  Trying to use film, results and other means to figure this out and I still am not sure.  My initial gut, gun to my head reaction was Snyder would win.  Then I reflected on Snyder’s last year wrestling Folk.  You can say “Snyder was a completely different guy when he won World’s.”  That may be (and likely is) true. However, I think the timeframe we look at here is important.  It’s not the leaps from March to September that I am considering.  It’s from March to early April.  Snyder went from an NCAA runner up with losses to Nathan Burak, Morgan McIntosh and Kyven Gadson to beating Jake Varner decisively.  Now, can we truly believe that Snyder just made jumps of that magnitude in just a few weeks.  Or, is Snyder a completely different wrestler when he’s wrestling freestyle.  Snyder has built his game around freestyle tactics and made it work in folkstyle, not the other way around. It’s an important distinction to make, in my opinion.  

Re-attacks may be the way to go for Gwiaz:
The point I’m getting at is while Snyder has made leaps in his wrestling and is a Senior level World champion,  the problems that he faced against Burak, McIntosh and Gadson cannot be merely sloughed off as “oh, he’s a different guy now.”

Another point I’ll make, is that I’m not swayed by Snyder’s clinic-esque matches.  Scoring takedowns at will against Brooks Black, Jan Johnson or even Adam Coon don’t tell me much about the potential Gwiazdowski match up.  For one, Gwiazdowski similarly lit up Coon in the NCAA finals last year.  Secondly, Gwiaz is such a superior athlete from a mobility, positioning, motion standpoint, that you cannot even compare the ease in which Snyder gets to legs on the plodders.  Gwiaz is a thoroughbred who will not be a victim to near this degree.  Another point that is too often discounted for Gwiazdowski is his leg attack defense.  He has been able to give up great position on leg attacks and has been able to defend well.  From a high crotch he is great at getting to a crackdown position, chest locking and getting his leg out.  He also has incredible re-attacks bolstered by his great agility to get to angles.  Gwiazdowski may be among the best finishers on leg attacks in the country as well.  In the past, Snyder’s leg attack defense once you’re in on his leg can be considered one of the more suspect areas of his wrestling (as much of a hole as you can find in a guy who is so unbelievably complete).  

I know, it sounds like all I’m doing is building the case for Gwiazdowski.  In fact, I can do more to build the case FOR Gwiazdowski than I can against it.  Hence the stress this has caused me.  For me, as I mentioned before, I see this coming down to Snyder getting to his ties.  Both guys are fantastic on bottom, and neither will be ridden.  Get that out of your mind Gwiazdowski fans, as good as Gwiaz is on top, he ain’t riding Snyder.  So we are left with a takedown contest between two living legends.  I see Kyle Snyder having a slight edge on his feet.  I believe he’ll get to his collar tie and be able to create the reactions he needs to get to legs and finish.  It will take multiple attempts to put Gwiazdowski down.  I think he’ll get them, and I think Gwiazdowski will struggle to get to his legs. Gwiazdowski has wrestled every match this year in the exact positions he prefers.  This will be the first time that dynamic shifts.  Snyder will take it to the positions he wants to be in and score the key takedown. Gwiazdowski falls just short of obtaining D1 285 GOAT status.

This has been on my mind constantly. I’ve reached out to as many sharp wrestling minds that I can (a perk of this job, for sure).  Many believe that Snyder is the guy.  So I side with my initial gut, and the opinions of those whom I trust more than the mountain of evidence that may suggest Gwiazdowski is the choice.

In the end we are left with the greatest college heavyweight match in history.  We are left with two guys who make wrestling the most incredible sport to spectate.  Dynamic athletes who attack and wrestle hard.  It will be a fitting end to the 2016 NCAA’s.  Two guys who many think could be Olympic teammates as early as 2016.  If that happens, it just adds to the legend of this bout.  Don’t miss it.  

Team

As far as the team race goes, based on my projections, PSU should win by a fairly comfortable margin over Oklahoma State, who could be a fairly removed from the team’s 3rd and back.  Now for the teams 3rd-8th there is an extremely tight group separated by very few points.  Seeing Iowa from anywhere from as high as 3rd (even 2nd if they’re really clicking) to as far back as 8th is realistic.  Also in this tier we have Ohio State, Virginia Tech, NC State, Mizzou  and Cornell all vying for a top 4 finish and a trophy. 

CP's Final Predictions:

1. Penn State
2. Oklahoma State
3. Ohio State
4. Virginia Tech