By far this is the toughest weight to prognosticate.  You can play it safe with the proven Dean Heil and nobody could blame you.  Or, you could say, it's very tough to repeat, it's a wide open weight and Heil plays it close.  I don't disagree with either stance in this case.  The combination of a returning champ who can have tight bouts on occasion, combined with a very deep field provide a difficult job for any prognosticator. 

Potential NCAA Finals Preview?

Title Contenders:

Dean Heil
Joey McKenna
Anthony Ashnault
Bryce Meredith
Kevin Jack
Joey Ward

This was a really tough list to formulate.  Part of me wanted to keep it down to just a smaller group.  So I stopped at 6, but then was tempted to add more.  Heil and McKenna clearly belong.  Meredith cannot be discounted after his run and win over McKenna.  Ashnault, Jack and Ward need included as well based on their talent and elite wins.  

CP's Predictions:

1. Joey McKenna, Stanford
2. Dean Heil, Ok State
3. Anthony Ashnault, Rutgers
4. Joey Ward, UNC
5. Bryce Meredith, Wyoming
6. Matt Kolodzik, Princeton
7. Kevin Jack, NC State
8. Ke Shawn Hayes, Ohio State

Round of 12: George DiCamillo, UVA, Matt Manley, Missouri, Tommy Thorn, Minnesota, Randy Cruz, Lehigh

Joey McKenna had an incredibly consistent Freshman year for Stanford.  The Cardinal wrestled Heil close before but fell short against Bryce Meredith in the semi's.  McKenna, like Heil is complete in nearly every aspect.  His head hands may be slightly better than Heil's but he is not as prolific a scrambler.  I see McKenna utilizing his double leg against Heil to avoid his scrambles and wind up on top.  To say I feel shaky about this prediction is an understatement.  Guys can make real leaps between their Freshman and Sophomore seasons, that's what I think we see with McKenna.  Even a small amount of improvement could be enough to separate him from the rest.

I truly can't come up with a measurable reason to pick against Dean Heil.  The field is nearly identical to last year, and he was noticeably better than the rest.  It's rooted in nothing but gut, but I'd be lying if I didn't admit I foresee a little regression with Dean coming this year.  He's as difficult to score on as anyone in the country.  Additionally, he has no holes on the mat and can attack legs and finish consistently.  A title for Heil should surprise nobody. I have him coming one match short.

I like Ashnault to climb up a bit this year.  He had a few off moments a year ago, but I think we see him wrestle more consistently.  He has as many leg attacks as anyone in this field:  low ankle, single leg, etc. His head hands can leave him vulnerable against the best of the best, however.  

Ward was sneakily very consistent last year.  He got overlooked much of the year when he spent much of the first semester out of the lineup when Evan Henderson was at 141.  Henderson moved up and made a path for Ward to get onto the podium.  Ward was Heil's lone loss a year ago.  He is one of the few guys in the country who can scramble with Heil.  

I think we'll see Bryce Meredith maintain his high level from a year ago at NCAA's.  Just like we saw Heil solidify from his Freshman year to Sophomore, I think we'll see Meredith become more consistent for this season.  He won't have that element of surprise factor going for him this year, but he won't need it.  His game is solid.  He can attack legs and is no joke from top.  Defensively he has some outstanding counters.  A more consistent Meredith leads the Cowboys this year.  He may seem low considering he was 2nd last year but this is just a very even field.  

Former Wolfpack teammates Meredith and Jack collide at NCAA's:

Matt Kolodzik will have all the tools to make a deep run next year for Princeton.  He and Ke-Shawn Hayes are two Freshman that I think have tier one potential.  I don't view them as Suriano-level talents, so I'm predicting strong but not otherworldly freshman campaigns.  Kolodzik doesn't have a wealth of attacks, but when he pulls the trigger he's a high percentage finisher.  He's great from short offense and will be a stingy rider if nothing else on top.

Kevin Jack fell off the wagon last year at NCAA's losing to his former teammate Bryce Meredith, and someone he had beaten last year in Joey Ward.  I am curious as to what his response will be.  His seasons were inversed the last two seasons.  As a true freshman he was brutal in the regular season, then red-hot at NCAA's.  The opposite was true his sophomore year. He's got a great low double and wrestles a high pace for a scrambler.  On top he can ride/turn as well as anyone at the weight.  I worry about the cut down to 141 for Jack.  When you look at his wins over his career: Dean Heil, Devin Carter, Joey Ward, Chris Mecate, Anthony Ashnault, Tommy Thorn, Seth Gross, Matt Manley and Solomon Chishko.  Probably only Dean Heil has wins that can match Jack's.  

Looking for a good year out of Hayes this season.  I talk about paths to victory a lot and that being something I look for when predicting success.  I view Hayes as a guy with a few ways to get his hand raised.  Hayes has always had great top work and tilt game.  That I expect to translate at some level against NCAA competition.  On his feet he's a complete package with room to improve.  There's upside here, I could see him higher than 8, given his talent and the TOSU staff/room.

For the round of 12, this is easily the most talented, and solid group of any weight.  All of these guys have the goods to beat some of the guys I have slated to finish top 8.  There will be some awesome wrestlers coming home empty handed in this weight class.  It's that simple.

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