The Agony Index: Measuring NCAA Bloodround Losses
The Agony Index: Measuring NCAA Bloodround Losses
We created the Agony Index to measure the total number and frequency of instances in which every NCAA wresting team's competitors have been claimed by the merciless bloodround since the year 2000.
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Every year, 40 wrestlers see their All-American hopes and dreams squashed by the remorseless NCAA consolation round of 12, affectionately referred to as the bloodround.
These matches are what separates NCAA medalists from mere national qualifiers and are the difference between a spot on the podium and a seat in the arena. It is a nerve-wracking round of wrestling for competitors, coaches, and fans alike.
Wrestlers who win their first three tournament matches are in the semifinals and thus guaranteed no worse than a sixth-place finish. But those who suffer a loss in the quarterfinals are dropped into the wrestleback abattoir, where they will be paired with four survivors of the consolation bracket who have battled their way back from their own championship side loss in either the first or second round.
For those eight wrestlers in each of the 10 weight class, it's win or go home. Victory means a a plaque on the school wall of fame, an entry in the program record books, and a degree of immortality reserved for just 80 All-American athletes per year. Defeat and it's either a long year of training before they get another shot, or, for the seniors, an unsatisfying conclusion to their collegiate careers.
For some Division I enthusiasts, it may feel like their favorite program suffers a disproportionate number of round-of-12 defeats. To find out if certain schools are indeed more unfortunate than others, we created the Agony Index to measure the total number and frequency of instances in which every team's competitors have been claimed by the merciless bloodround since the year 2000.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys win the dubious distinction of sitting atop the Agony Index. They qualified a staggering 167 wrestlers for those 18 tournaments, and watched an NCAA-high 29 of them fall in the round of 12.
But much of that high number of bloodround losses can be explained by amazing success head coach John Smith has had in qualifying so many wrestlers for the big dance. Generally, the more qualifiers you have, the more chances your guys have of getting stopped just shy of the podium.
With 33 entries per weight class and four bloodround losers each weight, you would expect a little over 12 percent of an average team's NCAA qualifiers to get knocked out of the tournament in the round of 12.*
It is then the Boise State Broncos who "win" the prize for having the highest percentage of R12 losses per NCAA qualifier, with the Hofstra Pride coming in right behind them. Only schools with 20 or more bloodround losses made our list (admittedly an arbitrary cut off point), so it's worth noting that Northern Illinois matched Boise State's record of 22 percent by going 11 out of 50 when the field is expanded to include all DI teams that had any wrestlers lose in the bloodround since the year 2000.
However, as time heals all wounds, so also will the more acute bloodround-induced pains be from more recent NCAA Championships. With that in mind, we also calculated an additional list from just the past three years' worth of tournaments.
In our more recent Agony Index, the Nebraska Cornhuskers have outpaced their peers by a healthy margin. The Huskers saw 50 percent more bloodround losses in the past three years than Lehigh, their closest competitor.
Nebraska is also not far behind the Northern Illinois, again the frequency leader in bloodround losses. If the field is expanded to all DI teams, not just those with four or more round-of-12 losses, Northern Illinois' 40 percent and Nebraska's 34.6 percent still remain the two highest percentages.
So if any Huskers or Huskies fan feels like they are getting killed in the round of 12 lately, more than anyone else, it's because they are.
I'd also note before we conclude that just making it to the bloodround, regardless of the outcome, is an outstanding achievement, and one that is not reached without considerable sacrifice and an incredible amount of hard work. But it is all that hard work and dedication that makes coming up short of that ultimate goal all the more agonizing. And so we salute all those who made this index possible.
*Of course, very few teams are actually average. Weaker teams will not see as many R12 losses, as their wrestlers won't typically advance that far. Conversely, if a team has nothing but title contenders, they will typically see their wrestlers advance past the bloodround.
Here are 2017's most brutal bloodround losses:
125lbs: Nathan Kraisser (CAMP) dec. Freddie Rodriguez (SIUE) 4-1
During the season Rodriguez major decisioned Nathan Kraisser 13-2. He then defeated him for the Southern Conference title 12-8. Kraisser won the big one to earn All-American honors and become Campbell's first-ever Division I wrestling All-American. Rodriguez was trying to break a 30-year drought for SIUE. Fortunately for those in Edwrdsville, they got an All-American at 174lbs with Jake Residori.
125lbs: Joey Dance (VT) dec. Tim Lambert (NEB) 3-1sv1
Losing in sudden victory is tough at any place or any time. After early upsets the tight bloodround match featured the No. 2- and 5-seeded wrestlers. Lambert came up one match short in his senior season. That's very tough to swallow.
157lbs: Paul Fox (STAN) dec. Archie Colgan (WYO) 5-4tb1
Colgan came into the championships as the No. 15 seed, and Fox was unseeded. Both wrestlers had a great run at the tournament. After almost finishing a leg attack in sudden victory, Colgan was unable to escape in tiebreaker one. Fox took the victory and the All-American honors.
174lbs: Brandon Womack (CORN) dec. Anthony Valencia (ASU) 8-7
Anthony Valencia trailed 7-3 late in the match. He hit a Konkrete special for a takedown and two nearfall. Cornell challenged the call, but it was upheld. At the end of the exchange, Womack earned an escape for an 8-7 advantage. Valencia created a scramble as he dove over Womack. He had him in danger for the last 15 seconds but wasn't able to secure control.
184lbs: Myles Martin, (OHST) dec. Jack Dechow (ODU) 3-2tb1
Jack Dechow has earned All-American honors in the past and was looking to add another to his resume as he closed his career. In back-to-back matches he lost to past NCAA champions in tiebreaker one. He dropped a 4-3 decision to Gabe Dean when he couldn't escape, as Dean controversially held onto his leg. Once again in the bloodround, he couldn't get away from Myles Martin.
Every year, 40 wrestlers see their All-American hopes and dreams squashed by the remorseless NCAA consolation round of 12, affectionately referred to as the bloodround.
These matches are what separates NCAA medalists from mere national qualifiers and are the difference between a spot on the podium and a seat in the arena. It is a nerve-wracking round of wrestling for competitors, coaches, and fans alike.
Wrestlers who win their first three tournament matches are in the semifinals and thus guaranteed no worse than a sixth-place finish. But those who suffer a loss in the quarterfinals are dropped into the wrestleback abattoir, where they will be paired with four survivors of the consolation bracket who have battled their way back from their own championship side loss in either the first or second round.
For those eight wrestlers in each of the 10 weight class, it's win or go home. Victory means a a plaque on the school wall of fame, an entry in the program record books, and a degree of immortality reserved for just 80 All-American athletes per year. Defeat and it's either a long year of training before they get another shot, or, for the seniors, an unsatisfying conclusion to their collegiate careers.
For some Division I enthusiasts, it may feel like their favorite program suffers a disproportionate number of round-of-12 defeats. To find out if certain schools are indeed more unfortunate than others, we created the Agony Index to measure the total number and frequency of instances in which every team's competitors have been claimed by the merciless bloodround since the year 2000.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys win the dubious distinction of sitting atop the Agony Index. They qualified a staggering 167 wrestlers for those 18 tournaments, and watched an NCAA-high 29 of them fall in the round of 12.
But much of that high number of bloodround losses can be explained by amazing success head coach John Smith has had in qualifying so many wrestlers for the big dance. Generally, the more qualifiers you have, the more chances your guys have of getting stopped just shy of the podium.
With 33 entries per weight class and four bloodround losers each weight, you would expect a little over 12 percent of an average team's NCAA qualifiers to get knocked out of the tournament in the round of 12.*
It is then the Boise State Broncos who "win" the prize for having the highest percentage of R12 losses per NCAA qualifier, with the Hofstra Pride coming in right behind them. Only schools with 20 or more bloodround losses made our list (admittedly an arbitrary cut off point), so it's worth noting that Northern Illinois matched Boise State's record of 22 percent by going 11 out of 50 when the field is expanded to include all DI teams that had any wrestlers lose in the bloodround since the year 2000.
However, as time heals all wounds, so also will the more acute bloodround-induced pains be from more recent NCAA Championships. With that in mind, we also calculated an additional list from just the past three years' worth of tournaments.
In our more recent Agony Index, the Nebraska Cornhuskers have outpaced their peers by a healthy margin. The Huskers saw 50 percent more bloodround losses in the past three years than Lehigh, their closest competitor.
Nebraska is also not far behind the Northern Illinois, again the frequency leader in bloodround losses. If the field is expanded to all DI teams, not just those with four or more round-of-12 losses, Northern Illinois' 40 percent and Nebraska's 34.6 percent still remain the two highest percentages.
So if any Huskers or Huskies fan feels like they are getting killed in the round of 12 lately, more than anyone else, it's because they are.
I'd also note before we conclude that just making it to the bloodround, regardless of the outcome, is an outstanding achievement, and one that is not reached without considerable sacrifice and an incredible amount of hard work. But it is all that hard work and dedication that makes coming up short of that ultimate goal all the more agonizing. And so we salute all those who made this index possible.
*Of course, very few teams are actually average. Weaker teams will not see as many R12 losses, as their wrestlers won't typically advance that far. Conversely, if a team has nothing but title contenders, they will typically see their wrestlers advance past the bloodround.
Here are 2017's most brutal bloodround losses:
125lbs: Nathan Kraisser (CAMP) dec. Freddie Rodriguez (SIUE) 4-1
During the season Rodriguez major decisioned Nathan Kraisser 13-2. He then defeated him for the Southern Conference title 12-8. Kraisser won the big one to earn All-American honors and become Campbell's first-ever Division I wrestling All-American. Rodriguez was trying to break a 30-year drought for SIUE. Fortunately for those in Edwrdsville, they got an All-American at 174lbs with Jake Residori.
125lbs: Joey Dance (VT) dec. Tim Lambert (NEB) 3-1sv1
Losing in sudden victory is tough at any place or any time. After early upsets the tight bloodround match featured the No. 2- and 5-seeded wrestlers. Lambert came up one match short in his senior season. That's very tough to swallow.
157lbs: Paul Fox (STAN) dec. Archie Colgan (WYO) 5-4tb1
Colgan came into the championships as the No. 15 seed, and Fox was unseeded. Both wrestlers had a great run at the tournament. After almost finishing a leg attack in sudden victory, Colgan was unable to escape in tiebreaker one. Fox took the victory and the All-American honors.
174lbs: Brandon Womack (CORN) dec. Anthony Valencia (ASU) 8-7
Anthony Valencia trailed 7-3 late in the match. He hit a Konkrete special for a takedown and two nearfall. Cornell challenged the call, but it was upheld. At the end of the exchange, Womack earned an escape for an 8-7 advantage. Valencia created a scramble as he dove over Womack. He had him in danger for the last 15 seconds but wasn't able to secure control.
184lbs: Myles Martin, (OHST) dec. Jack Dechow (ODU) 3-2tb1
Jack Dechow has earned All-American honors in the past and was looking to add another to his resume as he closed his career. In back-to-back matches he lost to past NCAA champions in tiebreaker one. He dropped a 4-3 decision to Gabe Dean when he couldn't escape, as Dean controversially held onto his leg. Once again in the bloodround, he couldn't get away from Myles Martin.