NCAA Seeds vs Reality: Mizzou's Home Mat Advantage

NCAA Seeds vs Reality: Mizzou's Home Mat Advantage

We're analyzing the team performances of all the top contenders at 2017 NCAA Wrestling Championships to see who stepped up last month in St. Louis and who came up short. Next up, the Missouri Tigers.

Apr 9, 2017 by Andrew Spey
NCAA Seeds vs Reality: Mizzou's Home Mat Advantage
Wrestling fans have high expectations for their teams heading into the NCAA tournament each year. How each team's wrestlers are seeded plays a major role in setting those lofty hopes.

For this series, we're analyzing the team performances of all the top contenders at the 2017 tournament to see who stepped up last month in St. Louis and who came up short.

Now Up: The Missouri Tigers


We tried to keep things as simple as possible. We ignored bonus points (but if an analysis of bonus points is what you're after, have no fear, we got you covered!). We also simplified the advancement points for ease of calculation. The actual advancement points may vary ever so slightly from the number we used depending on the round in which the wrestler entered the consolation bracket. We also ignored any projected advancement points for unseeded wrestlers, and, in order to balance that out, we also ignored any actual points form wrestlers that didn't advance passed the round of 24.

Also, if analysis isn't you're thing and you just want to stare at the team results, you can do that too!

But for those interested in the stats, here is a chart showing all of Missouri's qualifiers, where they were seeded, and what their results were at the 2017 NCAA tournament.

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Missouri had high hopes for the tournament, and for good reason. The Scottrade Center is located in their own state, less than a two hour drive from campus. The Tigers also had and Olympic bronze medalists, senior captain J'Den Cox, going for his third NCAA championship, as well as seven other talented qualifiers looking for a place on the podium.

Missouri also packed special singlets just for championship Saturday.

While Mizzou just missed snagging a team trophy, they still admirably finished in fifth place, about as high as anyone reasonably expected. Their five All-Americans ties a school record, matched in 2009, 2013, and 2015 (odd years are big thing in Columbia, Missouri, apparently).

So just how well did Missouri do? We calculated the difference between their actual (simplified) scores to their projected scores to find out.

Missouri's Seed vs. Reality Score: +9


Almost all of the Tigers who made the trip to St. Louis left having either met or exceeded expectations. 

Two of Missouri's All-Americans wrestled up to seed. Likewise, two unseeded qualifiers did as expected. The remaining three All-Americans all placed higher than where they were projected to based on their seed. Only one qualifier did not at least match his seed, and that was by a wrestler who was not expected to earn All-American honors in the first place.

So How'd They Do It?


J'Den Cox lived up to his superstar billing, capping off a legendary career with an undefeated championship season. Cementing his status as one of the all-time greats, Cox owned the division all season long, winning the NCAAs without surrendering an offensive point.

Lavion Mayes and Joey Lavallee unexpectedly (at least according to the seeding committee) made it to the finals. Interestingly, both wrestlers were three seeds and both beat seven seeds in the semifinals. The Tiger teammates were good for a net pick up for two and a half points each for the Tigers' team total. 

No. 8 seed Jaydin Eierman was stopped in the quarterfinals by the no. 1 seed and eventual champ, Oklahoma State's Dean Heil, in a narrow 6-5 loss. The freshman Tiger then proceeded to rampage through the consolation bracket, beating the no. 3, 4, & 5 seeds on his way to a 5th place finish, and four and half extra team points.

Sixth place All-American Daniel Lewis stuck to the script at 165 pounds, as did the bookends of the Tiger line up. Neither Barlow McGhee nor Austin Myers advanced passed the round of 24, as their unseeded status suggested they wouldn't. 

The sole down note for the Missouri program was eleventh seed John Erneste, who was upset by pinfall in the consolation round of 16 by Oregon State's unseeded Joey Palmer. However, while that loss was no doubt disappointing to Erneste and the Tiger fans, it meant Erneste scored a mere half a point less than projected.

Conclusions


Brian Smith and company did an excellent job preparing their team for the big dance, and the Tiger wrestlers put on a prime time performance for the hometown crowd. 

The Tigers graduate several studs, including the irreplaceable J'Den Cox. However, four All-Americans will be back on campus next year, including two-time All-American Willie Miklus, who missed nearly the entire season due to injury, forming a nucleus of wrestlers that would make almost any D1 coach jealous. 

No word yet on if and when the NCAA Championships will return to the city of St. Louis. 2018's tournament will be in Cleveland, and the subsequent locations have yet to be announced. However, regardless of the venue, you can bet Tiger Style wrestling will be there ready to put on a show. 

Video Time


That awesome photo in the banner is from Joey Lavalle's victory over fan favorite Dylan Palacio in the semifinals. The match wasn't without controversy, and it includes a head scratching video review, but it nonetheless provided for a great moment for the local Mizzou fans in attendance, which you can watch in the video below.


The Missouri fans in the Scottrade Center were loud and rambunctious, and their Tiger wrestlers gave them plenty to cheer about.