NCAA Seeds vs. Reality: Cornell Off Target
NCAA Seeds vs. Reality: Cornell Off Target
We're analyzing the team performances of all the top contenders at 2017 NCAA Wrestling Championships to see who stepped up last month in St. Louis and who came up short. Next up, the Cornell Big Red.
Wrestling fans have high expectations for their teams heading into the NCAA tournament each year. How each team's wrestlers are seeded plays a major role in setting those lofty hopes.
For this series, we're analyzing the team performances of all the top contenders at the 2017 tournament to see who stepped up last month in St. Louis and who came up short.
We tried to keep things as simple as possible. We ignored bonus points (but if an analysis of bonus points is what you're after, have no fear, we got you covered!). We also simplified the advancement points for ease of calculation. The actual advancement points may vary ever so slightly from the number we used depending on the round in which the wrestler entered the consolation bracket. We also ignored any projected advancement points for unseeded wrestlers, and, in order to balance that out, we also ignored any actual points form wrestlers that didn't advance passed the round of 24.
Also, if analysis isn't you're thing and you just want to stare at the team results, you can do that too!
But for those interested in the stats, here is a chart showing all of Cornell's qualifiers, where they were seeded, and what their results were at the 2017 NCAA tournament.
The Big Red qualified six wrestlers to the tournament with some pretty lofty expectations for their small but talented group. Cornell was led by four seniors, three of whom were making their fourth trip to the NCAAs. Those three seniors simultaneously earned All-American honors together for the first time in their careers.
Joining those seniors on the podium was a fourth All-American for Cornell, which was enough to power the Big Red to an eighth-place team finish.
But overall, Cornell came up shy of its full expectations. We shall see by how much by calculating the difference between the Big Red's actual (simplified) scores and their projected scores.
For the Big Red optimists, Cornell had just as many wrestlers outperform their seeds as those who fell short. But the upsets were enough to send CU into the proverbial red. Just how gloomy the results should be treated is ultimately up to the individual fans. The weekend in St. Louis was far from an unmitigated disaster, but Cornell unquestionably fell victim to upsets, which took their toll on the team's point total.
We will start with the good news. Scottsboro, Alabama, native Brandon Womack made history by becoming the state's first All-American since 1980. Womack picked up four more points than his No. 13 seed had him pegged for, the biggest gainer in the Cornell lineup.
Dylan Palacio finished one notch above his No. 7 seed, good for an extra 2.5 points. However, one can't help but feel like Palacio still left points on the mat. The New York native missed the first semester of competition and came into the tournament with only nine matches on his record, four of which from the EIWA tournament. A returning fourth-place finisher, Palacio was picked by many pundits to outperform his seed, and after upsetting the No. 2 seed, Iowa's Michael Kemerer, in the quarterfinals, Palacio was guaranteed to do no worse than sixth. And that's how he finished, suffering a "semi-slide" and losing his final three matches of his career.
Neither senior Mark Grey nor sophomore Ben Honis received seeds, and both ended their tournaments in the round of 24 -- neither giving up nor gaining expected points in the process.
On the negative side of things, Gabe Dean was taken out in the last match of the year by second-seeded Bo Nickal of Penn State. Dean entered the tournament as the undefeated No. 1 seed. Before his loss, Dean was seen as one of the leading contenders for the Hodge Trophy, having won the last two 184-pound NCAA titles. That finals loss cost the Big Red four expected team points.
Brian Realbuto also missed his mark, falling three spots down from his seed and missing out on six expected team points. Realbuto was upset in the semifinals by No. 3 seed Bo Jordan of Ohio State and in the consolation semifinals by ninth-seeded Myles Amine of Michigan.
With most of their NCAA points coming from graduating seniors, Cornell coach Rob Koll and company don't have time to dwell on 2017's results. They have two superstar recruits coming to campus next year in Yianni Diakomihalis and Vitali Arujau, both of whom are in the top five of Flo's high school pound-for-pound rankings.
Both Diakomihalis and Arujau could be pressed into service as true freshman, or they could take a grey-shirt year and compete unattached at the Finger Lakes Wrestling Club.
Whoever straps on a Big Red singlet next year will have some big shoes to fill, as Cornell will once again put its EIWA conference championship streak on the line, having now run the total up to 11 in a row.
Next year's team could look for inspiration in Brian Realbuto's pin of Zac Brunson of Illinois in the quarterfinals, seen in the video below. Realbuto would pin Brunson again in the fifth-place match, Cornell's only Saturday victory at the NCAAs.
For this series, we're analyzing the team performances of all the top contenders at the 2017 tournament to see who stepped up last month in St. Louis and who came up short.
Now Up: The Cornell Big Red
We tried to keep things as simple as possible. We ignored bonus points (but if an analysis of bonus points is what you're after, have no fear, we got you covered!). We also simplified the advancement points for ease of calculation. The actual advancement points may vary ever so slightly from the number we used depending on the round in which the wrestler entered the consolation bracket. We also ignored any projected advancement points for unseeded wrestlers, and, in order to balance that out, we also ignored any actual points form wrestlers that didn't advance passed the round of 24.
Also, if analysis isn't you're thing and you just want to stare at the team results, you can do that too!
But for those interested in the stats, here is a chart showing all of Cornell's qualifiers, where they were seeded, and what their results were at the 2017 NCAA tournament.
The Big Red qualified six wrestlers to the tournament with some pretty lofty expectations for their small but talented group. Cornell was led by four seniors, three of whom were making their fourth trip to the NCAAs. Those three seniors simultaneously earned All-American honors together for the first time in their careers.
Joining those seniors on the podium was a fourth All-American for Cornell, which was enough to power the Big Red to an eighth-place team finish.
But overall, Cornell came up shy of its full expectations. We shall see by how much by calculating the difference between the Big Red's actual (simplified) scores and their projected scores.
Cornell's Seed vs. Reality Score: -3.5
For the Big Red optimists, Cornell had just as many wrestlers outperform their seeds as those who fell short. But the upsets were enough to send CU into the proverbial red. Just how gloomy the results should be treated is ultimately up to the individual fans. The weekend in St. Louis was far from an unmitigated disaster, but Cornell unquestionably fell victim to upsets, which took their toll on the team's point total.
So How'd They Do It?
We will start with the good news. Scottsboro, Alabama, native Brandon Womack made history by becoming the state's first All-American since 1980. Womack picked up four more points than his No. 13 seed had him pegged for, the biggest gainer in the Cornell lineup.
Dylan Palacio finished one notch above his No. 7 seed, good for an extra 2.5 points. However, one can't help but feel like Palacio still left points on the mat. The New York native missed the first semester of competition and came into the tournament with only nine matches on his record, four of which from the EIWA tournament. A returning fourth-place finisher, Palacio was picked by many pundits to outperform his seed, and after upsetting the No. 2 seed, Iowa's Michael Kemerer, in the quarterfinals, Palacio was guaranteed to do no worse than sixth. And that's how he finished, suffering a "semi-slide" and losing his final three matches of his career.
Neither senior Mark Grey nor sophomore Ben Honis received seeds, and both ended their tournaments in the round of 24 -- neither giving up nor gaining expected points in the process.
On the negative side of things, Gabe Dean was taken out in the last match of the year by second-seeded Bo Nickal of Penn State. Dean entered the tournament as the undefeated No. 1 seed. Before his loss, Dean was seen as one of the leading contenders for the Hodge Trophy, having won the last two 184-pound NCAA titles. That finals loss cost the Big Red four expected team points.
Brian Realbuto also missed his mark, falling three spots down from his seed and missing out on six expected team points. Realbuto was upset in the semifinals by No. 3 seed Bo Jordan of Ohio State and in the consolation semifinals by ninth-seeded Myles Amine of Michigan.
Conclusions
With most of their NCAA points coming from graduating seniors, Cornell coach Rob Koll and company don't have time to dwell on 2017's results. They have two superstar recruits coming to campus next year in Yianni Diakomihalis and Vitali Arujau, both of whom are in the top five of Flo's high school pound-for-pound rankings.
Both Diakomihalis and Arujau could be pressed into service as true freshman, or they could take a grey-shirt year and compete unattached at the Finger Lakes Wrestling Club.
Whoever straps on a Big Red singlet next year will have some big shoes to fill, as Cornell will once again put its EIWA conference championship streak on the line, having now run the total up to 11 in a row.
Next year's team could look for inspiration in Brian Realbuto's pin of Zac Brunson of Illinois in the quarterfinals, seen in the video below. Realbuto would pin Brunson again in the fifth-place match, Cornell's only Saturday victory at the NCAAs.