Seeds vs. Reality: Ranking The NCAA Contenders
Seeds vs. Reality: Ranking The NCAA Contenders
We've analyzed the team performances of all the top contenders at 2017 NCAA Wrestling Championships by comparing their actual results to their seeds. Now, we're ranking everyone to see who did it the best.
Wrestling fans have high expectations for their teams heading into the NCAA tournament each year. How each team's wrestlers are seeded plays a major role in setting those lofty hopes.
For this series, we have analyzed all the contenders -- defined as teams who were projected to finish in the top ten based on their seeds and anyone who actually made it into the top ten -- and found out who stepped up last month in St. Louis and who came up short.
The results, based on wrestlers scoring more or fewer placement points than they were projected to based on their seeds, are as follows.
The caveat that should still be mentioned is that we ignored Penn State's No. 3 seed at 125 pounds, Nick Suriano, who did not compete in the tournament due to injury. We likewise omitted the negative score Brian Murphy would have scored for Michigan at 157 pounds when the No. 10 seed also withdrew from the tournament due to injury. Had those results counted, Minnesota would have had the best performance with Missouri coming in a very close second.
For a more detailed analysis of each team, follow the links below.
It is worth bearing in mind that every one of the teams on this list, from top to bottom, had plenty to brag about in 2017. And any wrestler who may not have finished where his seed projected him to still would have had a tremendous season to earn that seed in the first place. So kudos are due to everyone.
With these scores we've also begged the question: Who peaked best at the 2017 NCAA Championships? So we should address that.
The obvious answer is Penn State, as the Nittany Lions outperformed their seeds by the largest margin and did so starting with lots of high seeds, making it tougher to accomplish when there is no place for some guys to go but down.
And if we just want to determine who peaked by looking at results, then I believe, in agreement with previous analyses, that this assessment would be the correct, and that PSU coach Cael Sanderson and company did indeed peak the best in 2017.
But, like being clutch, we have been unable to determine that peaking is a measurable and predictable skill set in subsequent analysis.
So we can say that in 2017, some teams peaked at the NCAA tournament, and others did not. But we are no more certain that those types of results will repeat themselves in 2018 as we were sure about the performances prior to the start of the 2017 tournament.
In other words, hope springs eternal, and we start each season with a blank slate. And we're only one off season away from getting to start the whole process over again.
For this series, we have analyzed all the contenders -- defined as teams who were projected to finish in the top ten based on their seeds and anyone who actually made it into the top ten -- and found out who stepped up last month in St. Louis and who came up short.
The results, based on wrestlers scoring more or fewer placement points than they were projected to based on their seeds, are as follows.
Best Team Performances At The 2017 NCAA Tournament
- Penn State: +14.5
- Michigan: +11
- Minnesota: + 9.5
- Missouri: +9
- Iowa: +4.5
- Nebraska: +1
- Cornell: -3.5
- Ohio State: -3.5
- Arizona State: -4.5
- Oklahoma State: -14.5
- Virginia Tech: -23.5
The caveat that should still be mentioned is that we ignored Penn State's No. 3 seed at 125 pounds, Nick Suriano, who did not compete in the tournament due to injury. We likewise omitted the negative score Brian Murphy would have scored for Michigan at 157 pounds when the No. 10 seed also withdrew from the tournament due to injury. Had those results counted, Minnesota would have had the best performance with Missouri coming in a very close second.
For a more detailed analysis of each team, follow the links below.
1. Penn State: +14.5
2. Michigan: +11
3. Minnesota: + 9.5
4. Missouri: +9
5. Iowa: +4.5
6. Nebraska: +1
7. Cornell: -3.5
8. Ohio State: -3.5
9. Arizona State: -4.5
10. Oklahoma State: -14.5
11. Virginia Tech: -23.5
It is worth bearing in mind that every one of the teams on this list, from top to bottom, had plenty to brag about in 2017. And any wrestler who may not have finished where his seed projected him to still would have had a tremendous season to earn that seed in the first place. So kudos are due to everyone.
With these scores we've also begged the question: Who peaked best at the 2017 NCAA Championships? So we should address that.
Who Peaked Best At NCAAs?
The obvious answer is Penn State, as the Nittany Lions outperformed their seeds by the largest margin and did so starting with lots of high seeds, making it tougher to accomplish when there is no place for some guys to go but down.
And if we just want to determine who peaked by looking at results, then I believe, in agreement with previous analyses, that this assessment would be the correct, and that PSU coach Cael Sanderson and company did indeed peak the best in 2017.
But, like being clutch, we have been unable to determine that peaking is a measurable and predictable skill set in subsequent analysis.
So we can say that in 2017, some teams peaked at the NCAA tournament, and others did not. But we are no more certain that those types of results will repeat themselves in 2018 as we were sure about the performances prior to the start of the 2017 tournament.
In other words, hope springs eternal, and we start each season with a blank slate. And we're only one off season away from getting to start the whole process over again.