Predicting The Thrilling Cliff Keen Las Vegas Team Race!
Predicting The Thrilling Cliff Keen Las Vegas Team Race!
Who will win the brutal and prestigious NCAA wrestling tournament called the Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational? We will tell you!
Who will win the brutal and prestigious 2017 Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational this weekend? We will tell you! Or at least give you as much relevant information as we can for you to form your own educated opinion on the subject!
First, the schedule, so you will know when to tune in and follow the action LIVE ON FLO.
Friday, Dec. 1
9 AM PT (Noon ET): Round 1 Pig Tail Championship, Round 2 of (32) Championship, Round 3 Consolation of (32), Round 4 Championship of (16), Consolation 1st of (16) Round 5 Consolation 2nd of (16)
6 PM PT (9 PM ET): Round 6 Championship Quarter Finals & Consolation Round 1st of (8)
Saturday, Dec. 2
9 AM PT (Noon ET): Round 7 Consolation 2nd of (8)
10 AM PT (1 PM ET): Round 8 Championship Semi-Finals, Round 9 Consolation Semi Finals, Consolation Finals 5th & 6th, 7th & 8th Places
3 PM PT (6 PM ET): CHAMPIONSHIP FINALS 1st & 2nd, 3rd & 4th Places
Now on to the team race!
We've already given you the pre-seeds and done the quick-and-dirty calculations to show you the projected team finish based on those pre-seeds. Now to dive into the details.
First, we need to keep in mind that the final brackets will definitely have changes from the pre-seeds. Minnesota head coach Brandon Eggum kindly interrupted his bicep session to let us know that we won't be seeing Mitch McKee in Vegas and that the Gophers will likely also be without the services of Jake Short, Steve Bleise, Owen Webster, and Rylee Streifel. That will leave Minnesota with only three seeded competitors: Ethan Lizak, Tommy Thorn, and Nick Wanzek. That's still an impressive collection of hammers, but the Gophers are no longer a major threat for the team trophy.
That narrows down our team race to the following five contenders:
Michigan
Ohio State
Arizona State
Nebraska
Virginia Tech
Ohio State will be missing two key seniors, Nathan Tomasello and Kyle Snyder, who almost certainly would have received No. 1 seeds. All-American Joey McKenna will also miss the Invitational. That opens the door for Michigan, which, despite a recent dual meet setback to a salty Lehigh squad in Bethlehem, PA, is still most definitely a national team trophy contender.
So let's break down our top five even further.
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If we take the the projected tournament points from just our top five teams, we can create a point matrix by weight class to see how things might shake out by the end of the tournament.
Of course, wrestlers who aren't represented on the chart will still score team points. But for now, we're just considering wrestlers who received pre-seeds.
So what do these points mean? How are they derived, to what do they correlate, and who are the actual people that have been assigned these values? Read on and we will tell you!
The 5 CKLV Contenders By Pre-seed And Rank
SEED | Michigan | Ohio State | Arizona State | Nebraska | Virginia Tech |
125 | 10 | 2 | |||
133 | 1 | 5 | 7 | ||
141 | 2 | ||||
149 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 6 | |
157 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
165 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
174 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
184 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 3 | |
197 | 3 | 1 | 2 | ||
285 | 1 | 2 | |||
RANK | Michigan | Ohio State | Arizona State | Nebraska | Virginia Tech |
125 | 20 | 6 | |||
133 | 2 | 9 | 12 | ||
141 | 6 | ||||
149 | 11 | 14 | 5 | 8 | |
157 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 4 | |
165 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 4 |
174 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
184 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 6 | |
197 | 5 | 1 | 3 | ||
285 | 2 | 4 |
And to put some names behind those numbers, here's the same list with every potential wrestler's name:
SCHOOL | WT | NAME | SEED | RANK |
Michigan | 125 | Drew Mattin | 10 | 20 |
133 | Stevan Micic | 1 | 2 | |
157 | Alec Pantaleo | 4 | 12 | |
165 | Logan Massa | 1 | 3 | |
174 | Myles Amine | 3 | 5 | |
184 | Domenic Abounader | 2 | 5 | |
197 | Kevin Beazley | 3 | 5 | |
285 | Adam Coon | 1 | 2 | |
Ohio State | 133 | Luke Pletcher | 5 | 9 |
149 | Ke-Shawn Hayes | 4 | 11 | |
157 | Micah Jordan | 3 | 6 | |
165 | Te’Shan Campbell | 3 | 7 | |
174 | Bo Jordan | 2 | 3 | |
184 | Myles Martin | 1 | 2 | |
197 | Kollin Moore | 1 | 1 | |
Arizona State | 125 | Ryan Millhof | 2 | 6 |
149 | Josh Maruca | 7 | 14 | |
157 | Josh Shields | 2 | 5 | |
165 | Anthony Valencia | 4 | 8 | |
174 | Zahid Valencia | 1 | 1 | |
285 | Tanner Hall | 2 | 4 | |
Nebraska | 141 | Chad Red | 2 | 6 |
149 | Colton McCrystal | 2 | 5 | |
157 | Tyler Berger | 1 | 4 | |
165 | Isaiah White | 6 | 11 | |
184 | Taylor Venz | 14 | 19 | |
Virginia Tech | 133 | Dennis Gustafson | 7 | 12 |
149 | Solomon Chishko | 6 | 8 | |
165 | David McFadden | 2 | 4 | |
184 | Zach Zavatsky | 3 | 6 | |
197 | Jared Haught | 2 | 3 |
As expected, If Michigan brings all its upperweights, the Wolverines are going to be difficult to stop. NCAA finalist Adam Coon is back from a redshirt junior season and by all accounts ready to rumble at 285. New addition Kevin Beazley will provide some additional firepower (as will Jackson Striggow if that's who Michigan ends up sending) to complement Domenic Abounader, Myles Amine, and Logan Massa and create a veritable murderers' row. Throw in No. 2-ranked Stevan Micic at 133 and you can bet the Wolverines are going to put a lot of points on the board at the Las Vegas Convention Center.
Ohio State will counter with NCAA finalist Bo Jordan, NCAA champion Myles Martin, and current No. 1-ranked Kollin Moore. Still, even if those three take care of business, the Buckeyes will need to steal an upset or two from the likes of Luke Pletcher or Ke-Shawn Hayes if they want to hoist the first-place trophy.
Arizona State will also need to outperform its seeds if the Sun Devils want to snag the team title. Josh Shields will need to find a way past No. 1 seed Tyler Berger of Nebraska, which, considering that Shields has already beaten six top 20 opponents this year, is imminently doable. Anthony Valencia will also need to show why he was one of the most coveted recruits coming out of high school and find his way back to the top of the podium. ASU's Ryan Millhof and Tanner Hall have fairly slim odds of knocking off Lizak and Coon, respectively, but if those two make the finals and enough unseeded wrestlers find a way to a top eight finish, a Sun Devils championship is not out of the question.
Nebraska and Virginia Tech are long shots to win it all, although anything less than a top five finish will most likely be viewed as a disappointment. Look for Isaiah White of the Huskers and the Hokies' Dennis Gustafson to outperform their seeds and get both teams into the top five.
And finally, because I already made the chart, here are the top three pre-seeds by weight class (with McKee removed).
1 | 2 | 3 | |
125 | Minn | ASU | Edin |
133 | Mich | Pitt | UVA |
141 | Wyo | Neb | Minn |
149 | UNI | Neb | CMU |
157 | Neb | ASU | tOSU |
165 | Mich | VT | tOSU |
174 | ASU | tOSU | Mich |
184 | tOSU | Mich | VT |
197 | tOSU | VT | Mich |
285 | Mich | ASU | Duke |
But what about when the brackets are released — you may be asking — won't that change the dynamics of the team race? Of course! And good question! When we have new information, like the actual seeds, we will keep you updated, here at CKLV TEAM RACE CENTRAL.
So stay tuned and enjoy the tournament!
***UPDATE***
Brackets are up, which means final seeds are out! The brackets came out after weigh-ins, so wrestling is actually underway right now, but I just calculated the hypothetical points on the seeds, so here they are, our new projected contenders list!
RANK | SCHOOL | POINTS |
1 | Michigan | 117.5 |
2 | Ohio State | 108 |
3 | Arizona State | 89.5 |
4 | Nebraska | 62.5 |
5 | Virginia Tech | 54.5 |
***ROUND OF 32 UPDATE***
Michigan is perfect so far, moving all nine of their wrestlers on to the championship round of 16. The tenth Wolverine in Vegas, Malik Amine, failed his skin test and was unable to compete.
No wrestlers in the wrestlebacks means a team break/bite to eat. #CKLV17 pic.twitter.com/WisvXftWoI
— Michigan Wrestling (@umichwrestling) December 1, 2017
Seven schools have at least one wrestler still eligible for a title. Our five contenders plus Cornell and Wisconsin.
Michigan out to an early lead here at #CKLV17. pic.twitter.com/OQ79aqydEB
— FloWrestling (@FloWrestling) December 1, 2017
Live updated teams scores can be found, as always, on FloArena.