Dual season is in full swing and we’ve got another top 10 matchup going down live on Flo this Saturday as the #7 Missouri Tigers travel to the hostile confines of Gallagher-Iba Arena to take on the #5 Oklahoma State Cowboys. 

The one matchup that every wrestling fan has circled, Mizzou's Jaydin Eierman vs. OSU's Dean Heil at 141lb, is a rematch from the 2017 NCAA quarterfinals in which Heil narrowly escaped with a 6-5 victory. 

Watch #7 Missouri at # 5 OK State LIVE on FloWrestling

Trajectory

A redshirt sophomore, Eierman seems to be one of those athletes who evolves every time he wrestles on a matted surface. He’s constantly adding to his arsenal. Aside from adding offensive and defensive weapons in between competitions, Eierman has the ability to get better during a match. In the NCAA quarterfinals, Eierman was down by two points late but then stormed back with a takedown to tie up the score on the match clock before losing on a riding-time point. 

Mean Dean has looked more vulnerable this season than he has in the past. He suffered his first loss since February 2016 to Bryce Meredith this past December. A few weeks later in Naples, Italy, Heil dropped another match to Kevin Jack of North Carolina State. Although I'd still bet the farm on Heil in March, I think he’s proven that he is susceptible to losses in a dual meet. 

Danger!

If you ask most wrestling people they will tell you that the “Danger Rule” was put in the books specifically for Heil. Whether that's true or not, we have not seen the rule rear its head in competition for the two-time NCAA champion and make itself a factor. To Heil’s credit, he has all but abandoned the crotch-lock defense that he used against Jimmy Gulibon during last year's D-Day Dual (that's what it’s referred to around these parts) and has chosen to adopt a much safer and smarter far ankle defense. 

Keeping the above in mind, Eierman is a perfect example of a guy that would compete in a seven-minute scramble-fest given his choice. The longer a scramble goes the more likely a danger call is imminent.

You never can tell for certain, but I’d be very surprised to see Eierman pull Heil into a full-on scramble slugfest.

Dean Heil's scrambling in 2017 vs. 2018:

Early, But Not Often

There are a few things that you can count on in life. Death, taxes, and Dean Heil getting the first takedown. Even in his last lost to Kevin Jack in Italy, Heil got the first takedown. 

If Eierman wants to have a shot late, the trick is not letting Heil score more than once in the first period. The last time that Eierman and Heil faced off Heil went into the second period with a 4-2 lead on the strength of double from the outside and an elbow control high crotch. That's not to mention the fact that when you give up two takedowns early it’s far more likely that you will lose the riding time battle. 

Did I mention that the difference in the Heil win over Eierman at NCAAs was riding time? That's notable.