It’s hard to remember a weight more chaotic at the top than 197 this year. By our count, there are seven wrestlers with a shot at being the #1 seed for the NCAA championships next month in Cleveland.

Who are those seven guys? Ben Darmstadt, Kollin Moore, Jared Haught, Willie Miklus, Shakur Rasheed, Preston Weigel and Michael Macchiavello. They represent five conferences and every grade level, and none of them are undefeated.

What we know for sure is that they’ll have to win their conference tournaments this weekend in order to get the top seed, and seeding factors such as the RPI and common opponents will likely come into play as tiebreakers. With that in mind, let’s go through the best- and worst-case scenario for each guy.

The coaches rank can be found here and RPI is here. The coaches responsible for doing the 197 rankings are Matt Azevedo (Drexel), Scott Goodale (Rutgers), John Stutzman (Buffalo), Tony Robie (Virginia Tech),  Heath Eslinger (Chattanooga), Roger Kish (North Dakota State), Jason Borrelli (Stanford), and Ben Stehura (Cleveland State).

Ben Darmstadt (Cornell), FR: 27-1

Coaches Rank: 2

RPI: 8

I think Darmstadt has the best case for the top seed, and I put him as it last week in my seed projection article. He has just one loss, which he avenged, and has a common opponent win over Haught via his 9-0 major against Willie Miklus. Since Haught is ranked above Darmstadt in the coaches poll, I believe his best-case scenario is to win EIWAs, Macchiavello wins ACCs and Shakur Rasheed wins Big Tens; Darmstadt owns a win over Rasheed. In a worst-case scenario for Darmstadt, Mattiace takes the rubber match, Moore wins Big Tens, and Darmstadt’s low RPI drops him to about the fifth seed.

Kollin Moore (Ohio State), SO: 19-2

Coaches Rank: 3

RPI: 5

Moore, the Big Ten pre-seed #1 at 197, lost two of his final three matches and has tumbled all the way to sixth in our rankings. It’s difficult to get a read on how the coaches feel about Moore, as he is ranked behind Haught, whom he beat, but ahead of Macchiavello, who owns a win over Moore. In a best-case scenario, he wins Big Tens, Darmstadt loses at EIWAs, and then you’d have to imagine Haught winning ACCs due to the head-to-head. Worst case: he loses to Rasheed and still ends up behind Haught whether the VT wrestler wins ACCs or not.

Jared Haught (Virginia Tech), SR: 24-2

Coaches Rank: 1

RPI: 2

I’ve already went over the oddness of Haught being ranked ahead of Darmstadt by the coaches. The nature of his two losses makes it hard for me to see him as the one seed, even though he is five spots ahead of Miklus in the coaches poll and eight spots ahead of Miklus in RPI. Miklus has the easiest conference tournament of anyone of these guys, with only one other allocation spot due to the weakness of the MAC at 197. Best-case scenario: Haught wins ACCs, Rasheed wins Big Tens, and Haught hopes the committee doesn’t value Miklus’ resume due to losses to Jacob Warner and Danny Chaid.

Shakur Rasheed (Penn State), JR: 18-2

Coaches Rank: 5

RPI: 4

I think Rasheed has the toughest road to be the one. He has a common opponent loss to Preston Weigel via Kyle Conel, though the PSU hope would be that Weigel’s lack of RPI and Rasheed’s win over Kollin Moore at Big Tens would push him over the Cowboy. Both of the ACC guys are ahead of him in the coaches rank and RPI, so he’d have to somehow leapfrog them. Additionally, Darmstadt would have to not win EIWAs, and even that might not be enough.

Willie Miklus (Missouri), SR: 19-3

Coaches Rank: 6

RPI: 9

Miklus’ last go round at NCAAs did not start out well, with him getting lowballed in the coaches rank and having an RPI lower than anyone else in this article aside from Weigel, who does not have enough matches. I had him as the three seed last week, based on wins over Haught and Weigel. So Haught certainly has to win ACCs, which is again a tough one since the Mizzou senior is five spots below Haught in the current coaches poll. Additionally, Darmstadt can’t win EIWAs and Rasheed would have to win Big Tens, who has a worse resume in terms of losses than Moore. I outlined Miklus’ flaws already in the Weigel piece, so a lot of opinions would need to change for him to move all the way up to the top seed.

Michael Macchiavello (NC State), SR: 16-2

Coaches Rank: 4

RPI: 1

Macchiavello might have the clearest road to the top seed: win ACCs and have Kollin Moore win Big Tens. The coaches seem to not like Weigel’s limited resume, which includes a win over Macchiavello. The Wolfpack senior owns a common opponent over Miklus via Danny Chaid, so the big question is if he can reverse his 2-1 loss to Haught in their dual a couple weeks ago.

Preston Weigel (Oklahoma State), JR: 8-1

Coaches Rank: 7

RPI: N/A

To be honest, all hell would need to break loose for Weigel to be the top seed. Miklus can’t win MACs, Darmstadt has to lose at EIWAs, Macchiavello has to win ACCs, and Rasheed has to win Big Tens. Even then, Weigel is behind all of those guys in both coaches rank and RPI, so the committee would need a really compelling argument to shift everyone else down.

Big Ten Championships

Date: March 3-4 | Time: 9 AM CT | Where: East Lansing, MI
Broadcast Info: WATCH LIVE HERE

EIWA Championships

Date: March 3-4 | Time: 10 AM CT | Where: Hempstead, NY
Broadcast Info: WATCH LIVE HERE

Big 12 Championship

Date: March 3-4 | Time: 10 AM CT | Where: Tulsa, OK
Broadcast Info: WATCH LIVE HERE

Eastern Wrestling League Championship

Date: March 3 | Time: 9 AM CT | Where: Edinboro, PA
Broadcast Info: WATCH LIVE HERE