NCAA Draw Analysis: Michigan
NCAA Draw Analysis: Michigan
Analyzing the draws and point potential for the Michigan Wolverines that qualified for the 2018 NCAA tournament in Cleveland.
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The 2018 NCAA tournament in Cleveland is imminent, and Michigan looks capable of winning its first team trophy since 2005.
Now that brackets are out, we are doing a rundown of the draws for each of the top teams. Based purely on seeds and not factoring in any bonus points, the Wolverines project to finish fourth at next week's championships with 68.5 points, right ahead of NC State at 68.
NCAA BRACKETS IN FLOARENA
Michigan coach Joe McFarland and his staff qualified wrestlers in nine weights, although Kevin Beazley was unable to wrestle due to an injury. Six Wolverines were seeded, all in the top-six of their weight,
What we're doing here is a deep dive on the draws for Michigan and giving a range of projected point totals. Obviously, the range is 0-30 for every wrestler in the tournament, but we try to give a realistic picture of how many points each could score.
125: Drew Mattin, FR
After being ranked for most of the year, and even climbing into the Top-10, Mattin received a pretty unfavorable draw at NCAAs. He starts off with 16 seed Jay Schwarm, who can be vicious on top. If he makes it through, he'll have top seed and defending champ Darian Cruz.
If he loses to Schwarm, RayVon Foley pops in on the bottom side; Foley has two straight wins over Mattin. A loss to Cruz puts him in a match against one of these three: Ryan Millhof, Christian Moody or Gabe Townsell, and Mattin has already beaten Millhof and Moody. Up next would be Elijah Oliver or Barlow McGhee, which seems like last possible win for Mattin.
The true freshman could certainly wreck havoc on the backside, but bracket placement limits about how far he can roll through the bracket.
Range of Points
0-5
133: Stevan Micic, SO
The way Micic has been wrestling, we're really only looking for landmines that might trip him up before the finals. Bonus points seem probably on Thursday against Zach Sherman and then either Ali Naser or Anthony Tutolo.
The potential landmine comes in the quarterfinals against Austin DeSanto, who majored Micic 22-10 in the CKLV. Although it's difficult to remove the memory of Micic almost being teched in the first period, I'm not sure that gets repeated in Cleveland.
Luke Pletcher also beat Micic at CKLV, but the Big Ten finals seem to indicate that'll go Micic's way once again in the rubber match. Another rematch awaits Micic in the finals, though that one was "unofficial." Top seed Seth Gross beat Micic 7-1 in the All-Star Classic, and the Wolverine will be trying to avenge that in order to win Michigan's first national title since Kellen Russell in 2012.
Range of Points
15-23
149: Malik Amine, JR
Amine appears to have one win in him, starting off with Ke-Shawn Hayes of Ohio State. In the consi round he'd have either Michael Sprague of American or Ryan Blees of Virginia Tech. If he wins there, his tournament would likely end at the hands of Justin Oliver or Matt Kolodzik.
Range of Points
0-1
157: Alec Pantaleo, JR
The next two weights will pretty much decide Michigan's shot at a team trophy. Pantaleo has just about the highest ceiling of anyone not named Nolf in this weight. But he starts off with Ian Brown, who beat Pantaleo 7-5 in his second match of the year. A revenge win would put him against Casey Sparkman or Mitch Finesilver, neither of whom Pantaleo has wrestled in his career In the quarterfinals, he'd see Josh Shields, who like Brown beat Pantaleo to start the year.
Moreso even than most wrestlers, the Pantaleo that shows up that day will affect the results on the mat. Pantaleo might be a national champ, or he might fall short of being an All American. As I have been doing in these analyses, I err on the side of the level of the wrestlers and not the oddness of their losses.
Range of Points
5-22
165: Logan Massa, SO
Once again, a wide variance of finishes for the sophomore, who last year ended up third in the country. In the second round he'd wrestler Evan Wick, who Massa is 1-2 against this season. IF he can even that up, he'd get David McFadden, undefeated so far this season. After that, it would be Vincenzo Joseph, someone Massa has yet to beat in college.
So he certainly could make the semis or even upset Cenzo and make the finals, but more likely he'd have to run through Bryce Martin/Jon Viruet, Anthony Valencia, and then Chad Walsh on the backside. After Walsh, he'd see one of Chandler Rogers or Chance Marsteller.
It really seems like Massa is set up to make a great run on the backside and could wind up in the third place match again.
Range of Points
10-16
174: Myles Amine, SO
Last year Amine finished fourth as the 8 seed, and now comes in as the 5 seed. Amine will take care of business on Thursday before a rematch with Jordan Kutler on Friday morning. Though Kutler won the match in the dual, I think Amine's pace in the rematch can push him into the semis against Zahid Valencia.
After beating Bo Jordan twice in a row, it now seems like Amine can only be beaten by Mark Hall and Valencia. I think he takes out Daniel Lewis or Taylor Lujan or anyone he sees in the consis, and gets third.
Range of Points
13-19
184: Dom Abounader, SR
Twice a round of 12er, Abounader is looking to be a part of the St. Edward's amazing All American streak. The Thursday matches are against either Brandon Krone or AlanClothier, and then Corey Hazel or Bryce Carr.
His Friday morning quarterfinal is against Pete Renda of NC State, and their only previous meeting was a 4-2 sudden victory win for Renda in the 2016 NCAA tournament. That was a second round match when Abounader was the 4 seed and Renda the 13, and the Wolfpack junior wound up getting third.
If he loses again, dropping down Abounader would see Taylor Venz, the same Venz he beat twice at Big Tens. After that, he'd see another returning All American in Drew Foster. A win there would give him either Zack Zavatsky, who is 3-0 against, or Ryan Preisch, who he lost to earlier in the year. Somewhere around there is where Abounader finishes, ending his career as an All American.
Range of Points
10-18
285: Adam Coon, SR
Just like we spoke about in the Ohio State draw analysis, there is Coon and Snyder at the top of heavyweight. Coon won the first match in the dual, on a bodylock, and then Snyder won in the Big Ten finals on an edge takedown in overtime off a scramble.
There shouldn't be much issue for Coon to make the finals Saturday night, Going against Matt Voss, Thomas Haines, Nathan Butler and Nick Nevills in order, if seeds hold.
Range of Points
18-23
We had a strong feeling going into the season that Michigan had enough firepower to win a team trophy. Just like any team with high expectations, there is of course the possibility that they misfire. But this squad could end a 13-year streak without a team trophy.
Michigan Projected Point Total
92