2018 NCAA Championships

NCAA Draw Analysis: Iowa

NCAA Draw Analysis: Iowa

Analyzing the draws and point potential for the Iowa Hawkeyes at this weekend's NCAA tournament in Cleveland.

Mar 14, 2018 by Wrestling Nomad
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The 2018 NCAA tournament in Cleveland is imminent, and Iowa might need some help to win a team trophy.

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The 2018 NCAA tournament in Cleveland is imminent, and Iowa might need some help to win a team trophy.

Now that brackets are out, we are doing a rundown of the draws for each of the top teams. Based purely on seeds and not factoring in any bonus points, the Hawkeyes project to finish sixth at this week's championships with 60 points.

NCAA BRACKETS IN FLOARENA

Iowa coach Tom Brands and his staff qualified nine wrestlers for the national tournament, with five guys seeded to wind up on the podium.

What we're doing here is a deep dive on the draws for Iowa and giving a range of projected point totals. Obviously, the range is 0-30 for every wrestler in the tournament, but we try to give a realistic picture of how many points each could score.

125: Spencer Lee, FR

When Spencer Lee didn't wrestle back at Midlands, it seemed like a done deal that his redshirt wasn't being pulled. However, he would go on to not miss a match the rest of the season, picking up wins over two seed Nathan Tomasello, six seed Nick Piccininni, and 8 seed Ethan Lizak. He certainly can win the national title and seems to be in a group of four that can with Tomasello, Nick Suriano, and defending champ Darian Cruz.

He'll get bonus on Thursday, like pins and/or techs, but then has an interesting quarterfinal. If he gets Sean Russell again, I see that going similar to their Midlands match and Lee winning big. If he gets Piccininni though, it will be close and the freshman might even lose. He'll get a rubber match with Tomasello in the semis and then either Cruz or Suriano if he wins.

A Picc loss could put Lee against Ronnie Bresser, a chance for vengeance from the Midlands semis. A loss to Tomasello pits him against Lizak, Sean Fausz, or Bresser. I'm not sure if Lee will win it all this year, but I know he has the ability and can do it at least once in his career.

Range of Points

14-24

141: Vince Turk, SO

Turk starts off his tournament against Kyle Shoop, Lock Haven's high-scoring wrestler. Should he win that, he'd get Cole Weaver, who beat Turk 8-3 at Midlands. A win there puts him against top seed Bryce Meredith.

If Turk loses to Shoop, he'd have Irvin Enriquez of App State. A loss to Weaver puts him against Colton Schilling of Cal Poly.

Range of Points

1-5 

149: Brandon Sorensen, SR

There are not many obstacles in Sorensen's way of making his second NCAA final. In the quarterfinals, he could have Ryan Deakin, who gave him a close one in the dual but Sorensen controlled their rematch, or Jason Tsirtsis, who used to give Sorensen fits but has taken three straight losses to the Hawkeye. 

The prospects for a semifinal shouldn't be terribly concerning for Iowa fans: Grant Leeth, Justin Oliver, or Matt Kolodzik. Honestly, it seems like Sorensen is getting finalist points, plus bonus.

Range of Points

16-20

157: Michael Kemerer, SO

After getting pinned by Micah Jordan at Big Tens, Kemerer medically forfeiting out the rest of the way was alarming. A guy who has been the second best at this weight for just about two years now looks very vulnerable.

A fully healthy Kemerer would have been able to pin Coleman Hammond, or get close to it, but the Kemerer we’ve seen lately might need to just keep moving along at NCAAs. Up after that would be Paul Fox or Clay Ream, again guys we feel Kemerer is better than but could give him problems if he's not at full strength.

The Jason Nolf vs. Kemerer match in the quarters might be the most fascinating of the tournament. No one appears to be picking Kemerer, signaling that the Iowa sophomore might be even worse off than his former Young Guns teammate. A loss there drops him down to face either Archie Colgan or Tyler Berger in blood round. I’d have to see Kemerer earlier in the tournament before I could say with any confidence if he wins that match.

Should he win that and become an All-American once again, he’d get a rematch with Jordan, their third meeting of the year, or face Joey Lavallee. So it appears Kemerer is looking like a good bet for seventh place.

Range of Points

5-9

165: Alex Marinelli, FR

All things considered, Marinelli got an excellent draw. Jacob Morrissey of Purdue is his first-round opponent, followed by Nick Wanzek of Minnesota. Though Wanzek looked tough all year and will absolutely be in the match with Marinelli, the Bull should take it Thursday night.

The consensus seems to be that Marinelli beats Chad Walsh on Friday morning to set up the semi with Isaiah Martinez. Though the outcome of that match was a question before Big Tens, the data points to IMar winning comfortably. That could be the start of a semi slide for Marinelli, who would face one of his Big Ten foes in Evan Wick, Richie Lewis, or Logan Massa, all of whom can beat Marinelli.

Range of Points

8-12

174: Joey Gunther, SO

Gunther begins his first NCAA tournament with a rematch against Jacobe Smith of Oklahoma State; Smith beat Gunther 7-2 in the dual. A solid Josef Johnson awaits when he drops into the consis, and there’s no guarantee Gunther wins that. If he does, he’d probably see Yoanse Mejias or Daniel Bullard, neither of whom I see Gunther beating.

Range of Points

1-3

184: Mitch Bowman, JR

Getting a freshman in the first round of NCAAs isn’t a terrible draw, though Canten Marriott should absolutely be favored over Bowman. Dropping down, he’d have to beat Bryce Gorman of Northern Illinois. Bowman would have an all-MAC first day with a backside match with Jordan Ellingwood. Realistically, it’ll be difficult for Bowman to be wrestling Friday.

Range of Points

0-2

197: Cash Wilcke, SO

The 34th man in last year, Wilcke ended up in the round of 12, which may be his fate once again. A win over Eric Schultz should be the first round result, but I don’t see any way he beats Jared Haught in the second round. After Haught, he’d see Thomas Lane or Dustin Conti, so no real surprises so far.

To close out his Thursday night, he’d have to beat freshman Nathan Traxler, or Corey Griego, who is seeded ahead of Wilcke. Then as we stated at the top, it would be Nate Rotert or Preston Weigel sending Wilcke home once again just out of reach of landing on the podium.

Range of Points

2-6

285: Sam Stoll, JR

The Hawkeye bookend can end his season as an All-American for the first time. On Thursday night, he’d see Youssif Hemida of Maryland, who has proven himself to be just a level below Stoll. I don’t see him upsetting Jacob Kasper the next morning in the quarterfinals.

This is where it gets dicey, Stoll would have either Jordan Wood or Nathan Butler in the round of 12. If I’m an Iowa fan, I’m hoping for Wood before Butler. After that, it’d be Derek White, whom Stoll beat in overtime earlier this year, or Tanner Hall, whom Stoll beat on a penalty point in the Midlands finals. Neither of those is a gimme, so if he doesn’t lose in the round of 12 or get pushed down to the seventh-place match, he won’t see the third-place match.

Range of Points

8-13


Iowa's Projected Points

70