The story of the Hawkeyes in recent years is an odd one. When Iowa won its first national title in 1975, the program began a run that would see its name become synonymous with NCAA wrestling.

Twenty times in 26 years, from 1975 to 2000, the Hawkeyes brought home college wrestling's biggest prize. Their average finish during that span was 1.46, with an average NCAA point total of 118.5.

Here's where it gets "weird." It's weird to say they've "only" won three titles in the last 18 years when they've averaged a 3.66 finish and nearly 90 points per tournament during that time. And it's weird to say they've been "down" since their last NCAA title in 2010 when they've still managed to score 88 points and have never, not once, finished out of the top five. 

There's an oddity in having such great results—results that just about every sports program or franchise, collegiate or pro—would take in a heartbeat.

Such is the bar Iowa has set for itself.

If "down" is a term relative to one's track record and perhaps a little misleading, there is some truth that the Hawkeyes have been "down" compared to their own standards. And it's not particularly in the case of their final NCAA placements. 

In Penn State's "punt year" of 2015, Iowa was clearly a title contender but Ohio State won it. The Hawkeyes really haven't been a contender otherwise. While most would take Iowa's results, it doesn't meet the program's elevated expectations.

And there's that word: expectations

That's where the asterisk comes in.

The "down-ness" of Iowa hasn't simply been that it hasn't won a title in eight years, but that the Hawkeyes' outlook in recent years has devolved from "Will Iowa win it this year?" to "We're Iowa, we're not the favorites but we can pull out some magic" to "We can make a run in a couple years."

And now they're back*. Not back as in the favorites. Not back as in the driver's seat. But, back in the conversation.

With the acknowledgment that they needed to be more active recruiters, and with the recent procurement of an AA-caliber 133lber to plug one of their only holes, the Hawkeyes, for the first time in a long time, will be a title threat in 2019. 

(Oh. And as a Pennsylvania native, I just gotta mention that half the Iowa starters will hail from my home state. You know I couldn't let that dog lie.)

Penn State, with seven of the last eight NCAA crowns, has owned this decade. The Nittany Lions return four former NCAA champs and have the most returning points (117) in the nation.

If there's anyone to measure Iowa (or any team, for that matter) it's Penn State.

Let's see how the new-look Hawkeyes compare with the current PSU projections.

125

Iowa: Spencer Lee - NCAA Champ - Returning 27 pts

Penn State: Brody Teske, Roman Bravo-Young, or Gavin Teasdale (High School)

Lee is perhaps the biggest lock of 2019. Two NCAA champs (Darian Cruz, Nathan Tomasello) graduate and his finalist opponent, Nick Suriano, is moving up to 133.

If Lee put up 27 in the 2018 field, he should approach that same number in 2019. 

However, the exodus from the weight could also, in a way, help PSU, which will almost certainly be rolling out a true freshman. The Nittany Lions still have to navigate a field with, say, Ronnie Bresser, Zeke Moisey, Taylor LaMont, Nick Piccininni, etc. But it certainly could have been worse for a true frosh. And consider, PSU had no qualifier in 2018. Oddly enough, Penn State makes up some ground here—anything more than zero is a plus. I think it will be RBY or Gavin (allowing Teske to get a year bigger) with a placement of sixth to eighth. 

2019 Projections: Spencer Lee - 1st - 26 pts

2019 Projections: RBY/Teasdale - 8th - 7 pts

133

Iowa: Austin DeSanto - R12 - Returning 5 pts

Penn State: Roman Bravo-Young or Gavin Teasdale (High School)

DeSanto had an excellent season for a true freshman, coming within a whisker of AAing. He holds on to that blood-round match and it's a minimum of 8.5 points for him. The 133 weight class is tough, returning both finalists and most of the cast from 2018, plus Vito Arajau and perhaps Daton Fix. I like Austin in the 6-8 range.

Penn State is looking at a similar situation to its 125 predicament: 1) youngster, 2) anything is better than its 2018 total at the weight. The difference here is that 133 is a tougher, deeper weight. For instance, Mitch McKee and Jack Mueller didn't place last year. It will most likely be a freshman for the Lions, and though they are elite recruits, I'll go conservative and figure a blood-round performance.

2019 Projections: Austin DeSanto - 7th - 9 pts

2019 Projections: RBY/Teasdale - R12 - 3 pts

141

Iowa: Max Murin or Vince Turk (R16) - Returning 3.5 pts

Penn State: Nick Lee - 5th - 11.5 pts

Iowa has a good ol' fashioned dilemma on its hands. Turk was solid last year, but Murin may have some more upside and is coming off a very good showing at Vegas. That being said, I think most would agree in a blood-round-ish type performance for either of them.

The weight loses some studs: Kevin Jack, Bryce Meredith, two-time Champ Dean Heil, and Brock Zacherl who will go up to 149. It probably gains Kaid Brock.

For the Lions, Nick Lee finished fifth as a true freshman and I think you can expect a similar placing in 2019 with Yianni, McKenna, and Eierman all returning.

2019 Projections: Max Murin - R12 - 5 pts

2019 Projections: Nick Lee - 4th - 13.5 pts

149

Iowa: Patrick Lugo (Redshirt)

Penn State: Brady Berge (Redshirt)

This is a weight very much in flux. Both finalists and five of the eight All-Americans graduate. Also, anticipate Deakin moving up. The top returner is Matt Kolodzik.

But Austin O'Connor is coming in, Anthony Ashnault is returning, and Micah Jordan is heading down.

Gone are lineup stalwarts Zain Retherford and Brandon Sorenson. Enter Edinboro pickup Patrick Lugo, who had great regular seasons as a freshman and sophomore but didn't place. 

For the Nits, while you can't replace Zain, one of the most prolific point scorers of all time. Berge should match about what Lugo does at Iowa.

It's way early, and the weight has a ton of questions, but at this time, Lugo looks like a fourth to Berge's seventh.

2019 Projections: Patrick Lugo - 4th - 12 pts

2019 Projections: Brady Berge - 7th - 8.5 pts

157

Iowa: Michael Kemerer - 4th - 16.5 pts

Penn State: Jason Nolf - NCAA Champ - 23 pts

There are rumors swirling that Michael Kemerer is moving up (to 174). I ain't buying it till we hear it from the captain's (Tom Brands') mouth. I'll continue to work under the assumption that Kemdawg is staying put. He was obviously injured at the end of the year (as was Nolf), and he's been ultra consistent. Although the weight is loaded—and only loses Joey Lavallee and Micah Jordan—I see him no worse than fourth and as high as first. Let's go with runner-up points.

What more can be said for Nolf? The dude did the dang thing last year after a gruesome injury. He's on top of the podium till he isn't.

2019 Projections: Michael Kemerer - 2nd - 20 pts

2019 Projections: Jason Nolf - 1st - 24 pts

165

Iowa: Alex Marinelli - 6th - 13 pts. 

Penn State: Vincenzo Joseph - NCAA Champ - 21 pts

Joseph keeps proving everyone wrong. A couple losses (one to Marinelli) during the regular season—big deal. He gets it done at the dance.

That being said, you have to think Marinelli will grow leaps and bounds after last season. He entered Big Tens undefeated only to go 6-6 the rest of the way. Everyone is back except for IMar, but the Bull's floor is fifth. He can beat anyone. Let's go with third, a net gain for the Hawks.

For Cenzo, you gotta think if he got it done through IMAR two years in a row, he'll get it done again. That being said, he's not a stone-cold lock, has taken losses, and even had an OT scare against Isaiah White in 2018.

Iowa: Alex Marinelli - 3rd - 17 pts

Penn State: Vincenzo Joseph - NCAA Champ - 21 pts

174

Iowa: Joey Gunther / Jeremiah Moody / Mitch Bowman 

Penn State: Mark Hall - Runner-Up - 20.5 pts

Here's the positive side: I believe Mitch Bowman will be solid back down at 174. Here's the downside: The weight returns so much (even if that doesn't include Zahid) that it might not matter. 

Bowman quietly went 2-2 up at 184 last year. Another year of training, down at a more suitable weight—yeah, he could improve on that. But 12 of the 20 guys ranked at 174 last year return. The ceiling for Bowman is probably the blood round and four-ish points. 

Penn State counters with a sure-fire finalist in Hall, who is a slight underdog to win it with Zahid in the weight and an enormous favorite without him.

Iowa: Mitch Bowman - R12 - 4 pts

Penn State: Mark Hall - Runner-Up - 20.5 pts

184

Iowa: Cash Wilcke - R12 - 4 pts

Penn State: Bo Nickal - NCAA Champ - 23 pts

I'm bullish on Wilcke, too. For all the flak he took last year (yes, sometimes it wasn't pretty), his season was pretty damn solid at a weight up.

The kid won Midlands, for God's sake, and lost to the Kollin Moore (who, by the way, was the #1 guy preseason) in the blood round at NCAAs. 

OK. Back down to Earth. No one other than Domenic Abounader graduates at the weight. Wilcke will be fine. But he's looking at a blood-round match versus a Max Dean, Chip Ness type. Winnable. But tough sledding.

For Bo, there are murmurs of 197. He's a special talent and even if he and Shakur Rasheed switch weights, I see their placements (and points) as interchangeable. Bo's gonna place the same at 197 that he would at 184 and vice versa for Shak.

Iowa: Cash Wilcke - 8th - 8 pts

Penn State: Bo Nickal - 1st - 22 pts

197

Iowa: Jacob Warner (Redshirt)

Penn State: Shakur Rasheed - 7th - 9.5 pts

We joked all year that 197 was a disaster (and it was, all the way through NCAAs.) But there is starting to be some semblance of depth at the weight as stud Jacob Warner enters the fold for the Hawks. 

I (and all Hawkeyes fans) have to be cautious here. With his talent, the parity of the class, and both finalists graduated, Warner could win the whole thing. That said, he lost to fellow true freshman Jacob Woodley and went just 4-4 in his last eight matches.

I often say that there's no bigger learning curve in wrestling than that of your true freshman year. Warner will be great. How great is the question? Ain't gonna lie, I'm hedging here. I'll give him fifth-place points and say if you "guarantee" Warner wins it all or "guarantee" he DNPs, you're sniffing glue. 

No one has truly separated himself at this weight. Shake 'em up at the present time, and you could have several different, conceivable results. Heck, what really is Kyle Conel right now?

Speaking of a learning curve, Rasheed has had one as well—bumping up to 197 where the game is totally different. I'm sure he's learned and made adjustments and is spending the offseason filling out to a full 97. Gimme him third.

Iowa: Jacob Warner - 5th - 13 pts

Penn State: Shakur Rasheed - 3rd - 17 pts

285

Iowa: Sam Stoll - 5th - 17 pts

Penn State: Nick Nevills - 7th - 8.5 pts

Lost in Sam Stoll's NCAA performance (a solid, not spectacular fifth-place showing) is that he put up with three falls and a major. Seventeen points is a monster number for fifth place.

Depending on Dhesi's eligibility status, Stoll and Nevills will enter the season as #1 and #2, respectively. Nevills beat Stoll in the dual and at Big Tens, with Stoll earning an OT win at NCAAs. These guys are close, both shoe-ins for AAs, and the point differential is negligible. 

Iowa: Sam Stoll - 3rd - 17 pts 

Penn State: Nick Nevills - 4th - 12.5 pts

The Projections:

Iowa: 131

Penn State: 149

Summary: 

Looking at the individual projections, I don't think there's anything major anyone would argue with, one way or the other. But guys, it's May. We're a long way off. There will be lineup changes, injuries, people jumping levels, and people underperforming.

What we do learn though is that Iowa has a legitimate shot, something we haven't said as often as we used to in recent years. Penn State has been utterly dominant in March. Whether the Nittany Lions are peaking or rising to the occasion, they do it. Every. Single. Time.

The 149 to 131 point spread isn't an unreachable margin for the Hawks. It's a couple placements either way.

So the bottom line is, Iowa is back*, and while the Hawkeyes' fans would rather hear that in March, it's probably pretty good to hear in May, too.

Hawkeyes' Results Since 1975