Ten Year's of Recruiting Class Rankings

In art and design, they say 'form follows function.' In wrestling, it could be said (and proven) that 'success follows recruiting'. 

While the ultimate job of any coach is to develop and improve their athletes to reach their highest potential, it certainly helps to begin that process with the best raw materials. 

This March, absolutely fine coaching jobs could be seen in the performances of Ronnie Perry, Mike Macchiavello, and Jared Haught - all finalists and all three unranked in the Top 100 recruits of the their graduating high school class.

But they are the exceptions. The path to putting wrestlers in in the finals has proven to be much more likely with Top 100 guys.

In the last ten seasons, here are the unranked prospects that made an NCAA final

2009 - Ryan Williams, Old Dominion; Craig Brester, Nebraska; Mark Ellis, Missouri; Konrad Dudziak, Duke

2010 - Dan Dennis, Iowa; Craig Brester, Nebraska; David Zabriske, Iowa State

2011 - Nick Amuchastegui, Stanford, Robert Hamlin, Lehigh

2012 - Brandon Hatchett, Lehigh, Nick Amuchastegui, Stanford; Steve Bosak, Cornell, Cam Simaz, Cornell

2013 - Robert Hamlin, Lehigh

2014 - Nick Heflin, Ohio State

2015 - Ty Wilps, Pitt

2016 - None

2017 - Lavion Mayes, Missouri; Brett Pfarr

2018 - Ronnie Perry, Lock Haven; Mike Macchiavello, NC State; Jared Haught, Virginia Tech

In total just 18 non-Top 100 wrestlers made a final over the last ten years and just 21 of the 100 finals appearance came from that group. Only five of the 100 titles over the decade went to an unranked recruit.

It gets clearer every season that signing elite recruits is an imperative. From the Class of 2018, Penn State, Ohio State, and Missouri combined to sign 22 of the Top 100. It's just the latest example of an arms race. 

Since it's my 10th year doing rankings, let's look at data over the course of that time.

Here are the some of the best recruiting institutions (and some other programs of interest) in the last ten years, and their results.

*An Unranked Recruiting Class was given the value of 30*

**The Adjusted Value removes the worst Finish and Point Total in the decade for each team.**

Recruiting Classes & NCAA Finish Since 2009

Overall Observations:

Penn State and Ohio State have the best (6.1) average recruiting class rank. Iowa was 5, and had the best (3rd) average NCAA finish over the last decade. However, removing Cael's first year at Penn State gives PSU the best average finish (2.44) over the final 9 seasons. 

Penn State also leads the country in average points. With 104 (and an adjusted 112), no other school is within 10pts. of them over the last decade. Likewise, Iowa is a clear tier above the rest in that category as the only team to average over 90. 

#1 - A Decade of Nittany Lion Recruiting

Overall Observations: I guess you can say things are going ok in Happy Valley. Since Cael took over they are first in team titles, first in average points, and tied for first in average recruiting class ranking with Ohio State. They also brought in the most Top 10 overall recruits with 18. 

However, there is a constant (and laughable) debate on message boards wherein opposing fans suggest that Cael's success is all based on recruiting and wherein they marginalize his coaching ability. I mean...get real. There are ten Top 10 recruits each year, but it's only Cael and his staff that have turned three of them into the most prolific scorers in NCAA history. When Nolf and Nickal graduate next year the Top 20 point scorers - ALL TIME - will include Cael himself and five Nittany Lions he coached in the last 10 years. FIVE. You know how many wrestlers from other schools made the Top 20 in the last ten years? Four - Logan Stieber, Kyle Dake, Alex Dieringer and Kyle Snyder.

Hits & Misses: One of the signatures of the Penn State dynasty is that they experienced a very low amount of attrition. Not every top recruit is a lock. Some burn out. Some have a style that just doesn't translate. Some get in trouble. Some are focused on academics. There are a myriad of reasons. But PSU hasn't really had any 'busts'. The Altons and Jimmy Gulibon may not have performed like other Top 10's, but they provided solid service. When that's your worst case, coupled with bonus prowess of the Taylors, Ruths, Retherfords, and Nolfs...you're gonna be alright. The only highly ranked guy they truly didn't get miles out of in an entire decade was Jake Kemmerer, or maybe Sam Sherlock, who came in with injures. 

In-State: One interesting thing, looking back across a decade, is that Cael was very clear that being in PA and having access to perhaps the best preps in the country, was among the biggest reasons for coming to Happy Valley. On one hand, he has kept The Altons, Nico, Gulibon, Ruth, Wright, Zain, Retherford, Joseph and Teasdale (That's a lot of Top 10-ish guys, right). On the other, the PSU line-up has been composed of a great deal of out-of-state guys. Six of the ten starters last year were from outside the PA border. Meanwhile, over the course of that time, the only real must-have was Spencer Lee. Other highly ranked Pennsylvania's that went elsewhere during that time were Josh Kindig, the Peppelmans, Kenny Courts, Darian Cruz, Zeke Moisey, Chance Marsteller, Cody Weircioch, Thomas Haines, Sam Krivus, Luke Pletcher, Mikey Labriola, Sammy Sasso, and Garrett Hoffman. 

I'm making no judgement/assessment here, other than to list how PSU fared with in-state talent.

#1 - A Decade of Buckeye Recruiting

Overall Observations: Tom Ryan has the Buckeyes experiencing their greatest era ever. They've been Top 3 the last four years, Top 6 the last six years, and just once in the last decade were they out of the Top 10. If it wasn't for PSU's bonus point machine, the Bucks would have won the National title three of the last four years. 

Their average recruiting class rank (6.1) ties them with Penn State for the best of the decade. During that period they are 3rd in scoring and, if you count 2011 as a mulligan, 3rd in average NCAA finish. 

Since 2009 Ohio State landed sixteen wrestlers ranked in the Top 15 of their class, while picking up McKenna later in his career to add to that. 

Hits & Misses: With seven titles between them, Logan Stieber and Kyle Snyder were homeruns for the state's flagship program. While Logan, an in-state gem was good, landing Snyder was a big vote of confidence that helped with both visibility and recruiting. 

Like Penn State, The Buckeyes have experienced a low level of turn over. However, there were two back-to-back classes in which almost all of their misfortunes came. Ohio State had the #1 Class in 2011 - Campolattano, Hunter Stieber, Johnny Di Julius, Derek Garcia, Kenny Courts, Orry Elor, and Cam Tessari. What a class, right! Fabulous service out of the group, but not near what it could have been. Palmer, a 4xer and Ohio legend, wrestled about five total matches in college. Camp transferred without ever getting an AA. Tessari AA'd as a frosh then left school. Courts AA'd just once. And Derek Garcia - an ultra talented prospect out of Washington, was hit with the injury bug before he ever really got started. 

The very next year they brought in Mark Martin, Nick Tavanello, Nicky Roberts, and announced that Chris Phillips was transferring in. None ever reached AA status.

In-State: From Lance Palmer to the Stiebers, NATO and the Jordans, the in-state bounty has kept Ohio State stocked.

But they let some monsters slip away.

Of course the biggest one was David Taylor, who, had he gone to tOSU would have probably changed the course of NCAA Wrestling history. However, he was 'Cael's guy' very early on.

Alex Marinelli looks like a sure-fire 4x AA. And most recently, David Carr, who was completely revered by kids inside Ohio, would have had both an impact on and off the mat.

To a lesser extent, I always thought the Buckeyes should have targeted Jeremy Johnson, who ultimately went to Ohio. Nick Sulzer had a fine career for UVA, as did DiCamillo. Dean Heil won two titles for OK State. Kolodzik left but he was Ivy-bound from jump street.

#3 - A Decade of Cowboy Recruiting

Overall Observations: When compiling this data, it was surprising, even to me, that Okie State's average class was this high - 3rd highest overall this decade. Their 'worst' class was ranked 13th, and they were Top 5 six times this decade. It helped them produce the 5th highest adjusted average NCAA finish and the 4th highest adjusted points average.

I think the reason for the 'surprise' is that Cowboy classes are usually small, and sometimes unassuming. They typically bring in just two or three top ranked guys. Only twice this decade - 2015 and 2009 - have the Cowboys brought in more than 3 ranked recruits.

This year's class - two ranked guys, one of which was a flip. Next year's class features another flip.

Oklahoma State, till this point, has done it in a very unconventional way. Although it's been really solid, and produced really solid results, it's seemingly been a patchwork operation.

Much like Iowa, recruiting for the Cowboy this decade has been a period of change; whereas in the past, Iowa and OK State had their pick of the litter, today's recruiting insists on a much more proactive approach. 

I had a coach once tell me - "I've been on this kid for two years. He has a great national tournament, and gets one call from John Smith and there goes all my hard work."

News on the OK State recruiting front was always quiet and late in the period, but with Chris Perry leading that charge now (like Morningstar in Iowa), I expect that to change. Perry knows the high school landscape, and he knows (and has begun) to get in early.

Hits & Misses: The biggest hit of the decade was Dean Heil, who won two titles in a nasty weight. Most pundits knew he'd be good. But not back-to-back titles good. Much credit to John W. on that. 

Of course Perry himself won two titles (yes, he was a 2009 recruit), but he had much higher expectations than Dean. And Alex Dieringer became the nation's P4P king for a period of time. Jordan Oliver (class of 2008) is just outside this window along with the Cowboys biggest, most talented let down - Alex Meade.

Over the course of the decade in recruiting Oklahoma State has certainly had its fair share (perhaps more than its share) of guys who didn't pan out, including Top 10's Dallas Bailey, Austin Ormsbee, and Jordan Rogers. They also had Chance Marsteller and Ryan Blees transfer out.

But where their luck (or recruiting) failed them, Oklahoma State did an excellent, maybe the best, job in coaching up little-regarded guys. Guys like Nolan Boyd, Jacobe Smith, and Preston Weigel - none of them ranked, all have AA'd. They brought in sleepers like Alan Gelogaev, Albert White, and reclaimed Derek White. Someway, somehow, they always patch their holes. 

In-State: The first year I started ranking, Oklahoma had a great crop. 2009 and 2010 featured many Top 100's with Perry, Dallas Bailey, Laddy Rupp, Justin DeAngelis, Ronnie Balfour, and Zack White.

With a small population, the Oklahoma talent was cyclical. 2011 and 2012 had just 1 Top 100's from Oklahoma - Kyle Crutchmer. It wasn't until 2015 when the cupboards were stocked again, and the Cowboys cleaned up with the #2 class that featured Kaid Brock, Joe Smith, Boo Leewallen in-state and Andrew Marsden and Nick Piccininni out-of-state. 2017 gave them Daton and Kaden Gfeller. 

The moral of the story here is that the Cowboys have to (and are good at) recruiting nationally. And they get just about whatever they want inside their boarders. 

#4 - A Decade of Husker Recruiting

Overall Observations: A look into Nebraska's results and recruiting classes over the decade yields one of the more interesting conclusions in this endeavor. Their 7.1 average recruiting class rank is the 4th best during the time period, while both their NCAA average place and points-per-year rank 8th. 

So just how did the Huskers out-recruit most of the nation? Mark Manning is a tireless recruiter (he just did two stops to targets on his way to Beat the Streets). And he's done it from coast-to-coast. And he's done it via transfers. Nebraska is one of just four schools to have a Top 20 class every year this decade.

With such great classes, you have to wonder why Nebraska hasn't really threatened since their last podium finish in '09. On one hand, the 8-best average finish in the nation over the period is darn good. On the other, recruiting rankings suggest they should be a touch better. There are three factors, I think, that cause for the 4th-best-recruiting/8th-best-finish discrepancy.

1) Attrition. If you guessed 'attrition,' you got one right. I mean, that's usually the answer. And while Nebraska's flameouts weren't entirely pronounced, they did devastate a couple classes. They started the decade off in that way - with two Fargo Champs (David Klingsheim and CJ Napier) - not amounting to much. And the Class of 2014, ranked 6th, took a hit with both Hayden Tuma and Colton Adams leaving. Tyler Berger has been the stud from that class, but Derek White, who is now doing well for OK State, also left. 

2) Blood Round Agony. Last year, Andrew Spey wrote this enlightening article. From a period of 2000 to 2017, Nebraska had the second most wrestlers lose in the blood round, and ranked 4th with 20% of their total qualifiers during that period ending their seasons with a blood round loss. From 2015 to 2017 they led the country with nine blood round losses. No other team had more than six. Tim Lambert, Jake Sueflohn, Josh Ihnen, Austin Wilson - that's a lot of potential points on the table. A few more wins in that round over the years would have had a major impact in the final point and place totals. 

3) Unrealized Transfers. 

Nebraska's recruiting class rankings were misleading with consideration to transfers. In 2011, the class that brought James Green and Jake Sueflohn was ranked #1. A big bump there came from the anticipated (and announced) transfer of NCAA runner-up Tyler Caldwell. But come fall, Caldwell enrolled at OK State. In 2012 they brought in Frank Cagnina. But the most damaging was the 2013 class that included Destin McCauley and Pat Downey. Anthony Abidin and Colton McCrystal were also in that class. But it was the potential of McCauley and Downey that vaulted them to the #3 ranking. 

Hits & Misses: Other Top 100's that didn't have much impact for the Huskers this decade were Brandon Wilbourne, Greg Amos, Cody Compton, Keith Surber, Shaun 'Que McMurtry, Donny Longendyke, and Kris Williams. That's a lot of talent. And combined with both the plans and money for the transfers, it really hamstrung Nebraska, and hurt their overall performance while garnering high recruiting class rankings. 

On the flip side, Nebraska has done a good job plugging the dam in spite of the defections. You say CJ Napier, I give you totally unheralded Craig Brester, who made two NCAA finals. You say Donny Longendyke, I say Brandon Browne, who won a B12 title. Nebraska has had success with Jake Klein and Matt Murray types that are totally off the high school national radar. 

Oh yeah - and there's that little thing about 1x state champ and high school afterthought Jordan Burroughs. They did a good job with him, too. 

In-State: With a sparse population, Nebraska's in-state recruiting is only occasionally of interest. Doyle Trout, Colton Adams, and Austin Wilson were fringe Top 100's. You have to go back to Chris Oliver in the early 2000's to find a Nebraska product with national appeal.

For Nebraska, it's necessary to be a regional thing. Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota - Nebraska dips in there like they did this year with Alex Thomsen and Peyton Robb. But they've also done well nationally with guys like James Green (NJ), Jake Sueflohn and Beau Breske (WI), Mikey Labriola (PA), and Tim Dudley (SC). And they have to. 

#5 - A Decade of Hawkeye Recruiting

Overall Observations: OK. Finally. We've arrived at the nation's most polarizing team. And the first thing that jumps off the page at you is that Iowa ranks second over the last decade in both average NCAA place and average NCAA points per season. Let that sink in. For the last decade, Iowa has a out-placed Ohio State by 3.4 spots (1.1 if you take tOSU's worst year out) per year and beat them by an average of 14pts. per year. 

For the Hawk faithful, who are seemingly never satisfied, the question is "How much better could we have been if our recruiting was better than 5th?"

5th. That's what Iowa ranked in recruiting over the decade and it represents a clear cut off in tiers. Iowa was one of only five schools to have a Top 25 class every year of the decade, and the 6th place team in recruiting (Minnesota) was 2.6 ranking spots per year behind Iowa.

In total, Iowa brought in 16 guys in the Top 21 of their class this decade. Brandon Sorenson (who I had ranked #63 (whoops)) was not one of them. If you count Austin DeSanto (#17 in 2017), it makes it 17.

To be honest, 16/17 over the last decade was more than I thought I'd dig up. I knew Iowa did well in recruiting, but I expected to look over the classes and find that Iowa landed mid-tier guys and lacked upper-echelon, blue-chip talent. That isn't the case. 16/17 in the Top 21 is very comparable to Ohio State's 16 in the Top 15. (Only Sam Stoll (#18) and Kaleb Young (#21) are less than 15.)

What I did find was that Iowa's elite recruits came mostly from a few classes. Top 21 recruits per year for the Hawkeyes: 

Hits & Misses: Iowa has a history of keeping guys around, buying in to the program, and minimizing attrition. To speak broadly, the only important/potentially important guys that leave, (Steve Mocco notwithstanding) are guys that never really got their feet under them in IC. Anthony Baldosaro, Nate Skonieczny, and Aaron Bradley didn't spend much time on campus.

The few potentially impactful guys that actually spent significant time in the room were Broc Berge, Jake Ballweg, and the situation with Seth Gross. Although one could make the case that Nick Moore or Josh Dziewa didn't perform to their Top 10 high school ranking.

In-State: The situation with Iowa high school wrestling is similar to that of Oklahoma; it's a very passionate, knowledgable landscape but one with a small population that results in cyclical talent or talent in waves. The number of elite recruits has been down in recent years, with most of the best recruits in the state earning prospect rankings in the back half of the Big Board. There has only been nine Top 50's from the state of Iowa in this six-year period. It was a case where perhaps it was best to not go hard after in-state talent. 

Top 100 Recruits from Iowa 2014-2019

2019: Four Overall, Zero Top 50, TBD

2018: Five Overall, Four Top 50, Iowa got one (#93-Nelson Brands)

2017: Seven Overall, Zero Top 50, Iowa got one (#79-Aaron Costello)

2016: Seven Overall, One Top 50, Iowa got one (#34-Carter Happel)

2015: Seven Overall, Four Top 50, Iowa got one (#82-Steven Holloway)

2014: One Overall, Zero Top 50, Iowa got one (#64-Logan Ryan)

#6 - A Decade of Gopher Recruiting

Overall Observations: There's a drop off between the top five here and Minnesota. However, he only Gopher class in the last decade that wasn't ranked was last year's and Minnesota has finished in the Top 10 at NCAA's seven times in the last decade.

I wrote a few years back that Minnesota needed to reload. They were graduating a ridiculous amount of production in a two-year period with the Dardanes, Ness, Schiller, Steinhaus and Nelson. And while they did a good job of recruiting, they're still in a sort of in between period where they're competitive but not contenders. 

From 184 through 285, from 2011 through 2017, Gophers AA'd 17 out of a possible 21 times. Last year, they didn't AA in those weights at all. They need to rebuild their upperweights and Gable is a good start. 

Hits & Misses: Look, the bottom line is that after a decade of very solid recruiting, the 2015 class, with three Top 20's blew their plans all to hell. Bobby Steveson hasn't performed to his ranking yet and Stroker and Early are gone. Coupled with drop off in production at the upperweights noted above, you have a clear picture why there are solid results, but not the podium finishes the Gophers achieved earlier in the decade.

The best hits of the decade were Steinhaus and Brett Pfarr. Steinhaus wasn't supposed to be that good, and Pfarr wasn't thought of at all. The two combined five AA's. 

In-State: As the only dog in a very healthy wrestling state, Minnesota has done a great job over the years on three things 1) Locking up the state's best 2) coaching up the diamonds-in-the-rough in the state and 3) peppering in some out-of-state flavor from Scott Schiller, Logan Storely, to the Dardanes and Ethan Lizak. Minnesota has done a great job fostering the in-state talent and mixing in the occasional prospects outside its borders. 

While the talent in Minnesota may have been down a for a year or two, it's on its way back up. And sure two guys (Mark Hall, Brady Berge) got away. But they landed perhaps the best prospect ever in Gable and went out of state to get Brayton Lee. Along with Patrick McKee and Ironman/Super 32 Champ Ryan Thomas, that's four Top 50 guys. They haven't done that since 2008 with Jake Dietchler, Mario Mason, Cody Yohn, Ryland Geiger, and Atticus Disney in what was, at the time, one of the greatest recruiting classes ever conceived. 

#7 - A Decade of Big Red Recruiting

Overall Observations: What Rob Koll & Co. do at Cornell is nothing short of amazing. Yeah, I know, the community college process they have works wonders. Blah, blah. I used to spit that mantra too. The bottom line is, Cornell produces; they do it not just in recruiting, but by coaching them up, too.

Consider this: Cornell (along with Missouri) has the best differential between average recruiting class (13.2) and average finish (5.2) over the course of the decade. Now also consider the number of 'misses' they have (I'll get there in a minute). 

What that means is that not only is the Big Red staff recruiting well, they're able to compensate for busts, and they're able to coach up those we don't expect.

Gabe Dean, Bosak, Simaz. Dean was ranked in the 70's. Bosak and Simaz weren't Top 100. All of them won a title and in 10 of their 12 years of eligibility placed 4th or higher.

That's getting it done.

Hits & Misses: It's easy to be critical, but in self-grading (which is part of what I'm doing here) I also have to say wrestler X was ranked Y and produced to a Z level. So while Chris Villalonga had a solid, AA career, it wasn't commensurate with expectations.

Cornell has had several of those guys including Mark Grey, and Marshall Peppelman, and Alex Cisneros, and Joey Galasso, etc, etc. 

Well geez, that's among the most blue-chip busts of anyone in the nation during that time span right?

Yeah, sure. Probably. But for every Alex Cisneros at Cornell, there's a Nahshon Garrett. And for every Marshall Peppelman, there's Dylan Palacio.

One guy that I personally thought was going to do very well was Jake Taylor, who won both Super 32 and FloNationals.

But results are results, and Cornell averaged, for an entire decade, a 5th place finish (better than Oklahoma State) and the 5th most points. 

In-State: With such high academic standards, in-state is a much trickier metric to apply to an Ivy. But, let's dance.

Despite that being the case, Cornell has kept monster Top 25's at home. During the same span they got Dake, Realbuto, Vito, and Yianni, here are the Top 25's from NYS that didn't go to Cornell: Jacori Teemer, Louie Deprez, Nick Piccininni, Nick Gwiazdowski, Alex Eckstrom. 

It's a fine list, but Cornell's batting average among the state's elite is strong despite the academic considerations.

#8 - A Decade of Wolverine Recruiting

Overall Observations: One of the fastest rising teams, Michigan has a good history of recruiting and a young, passionate and respected technician now at the helm. The Wolverines recruiting average is the 8th best over the decade to go along with the 10th best average finish.

Michigan had the #9 class in 2017, the #4 class this year, and has a commitment from perhaps the #1 125lb. prospect for next year. They need to maintain this kind of momentum to enter the conversation for a podium spot every year. 

Their recruiting classes were a touch better in 2012 and 2013. Both the 2017-18 group and the 2012-13 group brought 7 Top 100's. 2012 had Taylor Massa, Rossi Bruno, Jordan Thomas and Conor Youtsey. 2013 was ranked #1 with Adam Coon, Ben Whitford, Domenic Abounader and Brian Murphy. 

Hits & Misses: Perhaps more than any other team, Michigan's attrition has largely come from injuries. Taylor Massa, Jordan Thomas (who beat Gabe Dean for the state title their senior year), Brian Murphy, Davonte Mahomes - they all had their careers cut short or interrupted, abbreviating what could have been an even more productive decade for the Maize and Blue.

There hasn't been that many guys that simply don't work out in Ann Arbor. Ben Whitford and Zac Hall were the only Top 50 guys that they didn't get production out of, making the program one of the least volatile in the country. 

While the best wrestlers of the decade were Kellen Russell and Adam Coon, the biggest overachievers are guys still on their roster. Myles Amine was #46 in 2015 and Alec Pantaleo wasn't even Top 100 in 2014. Both have turned into perennial AA's if not title threats and are excellent examples of not just recruiting, but coaching them up. 

In-State: Like many of the other national powers, The University of Michigan carries enormous brand fidelity in the state which affords them first dibs on the top recruits in a state that is very solid. With its proximity to Illinois, and Bormet's deep connections there (he ran the highly successful Overtime club there), Michigan also plucks a great deal of talent there as well.

#9 - A Decade of Cyclone Recruiting

Overall Observations: It's been a tumultuous time for a proud program. Despite being the only team on this list to go through two coaching changes, the Cyclones still averaged the 9th best recruiting class average. Of course, the problem is that the results didn't follow. They have the worst average finish and adjusted finish on the list, and the second worst adjusted point average.

In seven of the ten years, Iowa State brought in ranked classes, a trend that should continue under Kevin Dresser, who has always recruited well. The key for him will be maintaining the culture, and obviously, keeping them around.

Hits & Misses: Cyclone legacy Kyven Gadson fulfilled his quest of being a National Champion is by far the shiny object of the decade for ISU. Mike Moreno also had a solid, AA career. Both were part of the #6 recruiting class of 2010. But while they were the headliners, that class is also where the attrition trend started. Ryak Finch, Joey Cozart, and Luke Goettl were all Top 100's in that class who didn't finish their careers in Ames. 

After an unranked Class of '11, the Cyclones brought in another highly. I had the Destin McCauley/John Meeks 2012 Class ranked 10th. And of course that didn't work out. 

3 of the 4 recruits from the 13th-ranked Class of 2014 didn't finish with the Cyclones.

And then what looked to be an excellent haul in 2017 fell apart when the coaching change was announced and Jared Verkleeren (PSU), Ethan Smith (tOSU), and Jake Allar (MINN) went elsewhere. One of the gems from the Class of 2016, Kanen Storr, stayed before transferring to Michigan.

Explains a lot, doesn't it.

Times have been tough. But Iowa State is still a coveted destination. Looking at the excellent job Kevin Dresser did at Virginia Tech, ISU will certainly improve. They just need the continuity and consistency that two coaching changes didn't help with.

In-State: I broke down the recent history of talent in the state of Iowa above for the Hawkeyes. There is talent there, just not a ton of elite guys. But Iowa State is in a different position than the Hawks. Whereas Iowa has a solid line-up and can afford to be more selective, Iowa State can bolster the overall competitiveness in the room by picking up some of the best in-state talent. In the past three years, they picked up four in-state Top 100's to go along with national hammers David Carr and Austin Gomez. It's the right approach, and things will be trending upwards. 

#10 - A Decade of Hokie Recruiting

Overall Observations: If it wasn't for an unranked class this year, Tech would have edged Iowa State for the 9th best average recruiting class ranking in the country over the last decade. The Hokies scored ranked classes in eight of the ten years of the period, propelling them to new highs in their program's history, including their first podium finish in 2016.

Hits & Misses: Tech has been very efficient. The ranked recruits they've brought in almost all worked out. The only exception is probably Ty Mitch back in 2010. What it says is that when kids get to campus, they're enjoy the culture. So get more kids on campus! They have done just that. Their 2019 class is already shaping up for a very high ranking.

In-State: The drop off of Christiansburg has really hurt the in-state talent. Joey Dance, Devin Carter, Zack Epperly were all products of that program. They were all lay-up recruits to Tech, and they were all multi-time AA's. 

The good news is that Tech has done a tremendous job making in-roads to PA, OH, and NJ, grabbing AA's in Brascetta, Walz, Chishko, McFadden, and Zavatsky.

Top 50 Recruits From the State of Virginia

2018 - Zero

2017 - Borst, Bolen (Tech got both)

2016 - Zero

2015 - Dylan Wisman (MIZZ); Patrick Grayson (NEB)

2014 - Zero

#11 - A Decade of Mountain Hawk Recruiting

Overall Observations: One of the finest coaches in the sport, Pat Santoro took the helm at Lehigh in the 2008-09 season. So all the results within this window are his.

One of the more consistent programs in the country, Lehigh finished between 12th and 18th the last five years at NCAA's. For the decade, the have the 9th highest average NCAA finish, which is better than both Michigan and Virginia Tech.

On the recruiting front, which assistant John Hughes captains, Lehigh has picked its spots. On one had they have six Top 20 classes, half of which were Top 10's. But they also had unranked classes four times this decade, all of which came in the last six years. 

Hits & Misses: A large part of Lehigh's success and stability is in turning unheralded guys into studs. They coached Max Wessel to an AA. And three times this decade they took unranked recruits to the finals - twice by Robert Hamlin and once by Brandon Hatchett. 

When coupled with their prize recruits doing what they're supposed to, Lehigh always has formidable dual squads and respectable NCAA finishes. 

Along with Hamlin, Darian Cruz and Zach Rey have been the best of the decade for the Mountain Hawks.

In the attrition front, in the middle of the decade, Lehigh was bit something fierce by bad luck. Surefire AA candidates Austin Meys and Eric Hess came down with career-ending maladies. 

This coincided with your typical cull cases - Frank Cagnina failed out after a fine freshman year. Steve Dutton transferred to Michigan. Dylan Milonas had the injury bug. 

In-State: For Lehigh, their recruiting range is more of a radius thing than a state thing. They do excellent in the NY/NJ/Eastern PA area.

There was a time under the previous, Greg Strobel-led regime where the local fan base got restless as there weren't many kids from the area recruited to Lehigh.

That changed in a big way when Santoro took over. In the last decade alone, several from the area AA'd for the Mountain Hawks - Nate Brown, Darian and Randy Cruz, Mitch Minotti, Scotty Parker, Jordan Kutler - are all from within an hour or so from the school.

#12 - A Decade of Tiger Recruiting

Overall Observations: I've always admired the work that Missouri and Coach Brian Smith has done. They aren't exactly 'a small program' that their most famous alum Ben Askren characterizes them as. But they DO do a lot with a little. And they DO get a ton out of the prospects that go there. And even though I knew coming in to this project that they overachieved, I didn't know it was to this extent until I ran these numbers.

While Missouri has the 12th best recruiting average over the last decade, they have been, with Cornell, the most over-performing, coming in just ahead of Nebraska at 7th best average finish over this time period.

There average recruiting class rank is just 19, but their adjusted average NCAA place is 8.6!

In short, what it means is, they get more out of the prospects they get than what was anticipated.

While ranking 12th best in the country in recruiting over a decade isn't bad, MIZZOU has done it mostly by consistently grabbing mid-tier (ranked 40 to 70) recruits. J'den is by far the biggest hit. But he was a rare blue-chipper brought in by Smith.

How rare? In the entire decade, he was the only Top 20 recruit for Missouri.

Hits & Misses: While J'den is the headliner, and obvious choice, for me, the biggest Tiger hits of this decade are guys like Houdashelt and Lavalle, who most penciled as AA candidates, but did them one better and made NCAA finals. Lavalle was ranked 19th in his weight class and not ranked at all on the big board. Houdashelt was ranked 53rd.

They are typical of the history of overachieving Tigers seen in the preceding era with Michael Chandler, Raymond Jordan, Tyron Woodley, and Mark Ellis.

There have been some misses. Most recently a pair of FloNats Champs in Dylan Wisman and Austin Myers, ranked 40th and 25th, respectively.

But for me, the biggest misses were the Toals, Ironman Champ Zach (2009) and S32 Runner-Up BJ (2013). I thought they would both work really well at the next level.

In-State: More than any other top program, Missouri has lived on what its own state produces. Their 2018 Class, ranked 6th, completely exemplifies both their in-state and mid-tier approach and history. They brought in eight ranked recruits this year - all between #39 to #89. 7 of the 8 were from the state.

They pretty much own the all the in-state talent. Really only Ke-Shawn got away. 

Why No NC State?

I wanted to end with a note on NC State. I intended to include them in this project. In fact I compiled their numbers. But what we see is that it's way too early to glean anything. While he's moving fast, the Popolizio era is still in its infancy. He's recruiting well, and the Pack are fresh off a podium finish, but the Carter Jordan era at the beginning of the decade renders the data relatively worthless.