Assuming the Penn State roster changes are reflective of the returning champs 2018-19 lineup, there are a few landscape-shifting takeaways for the teams scoring potential, the impact on the individual weight classes and how it impacts other teams vying for the #1 spot.  

#1 - 197 Goes From Anyone’s Guess To Property Of Bo

Kollin Moore, Kyle Conel, Preston Weigel, Ben Darmstadt, Willie Miklus and heck, I’ll throw in Jacob Warner on the list of guys who all entered that “title contending” discussion coming into this season.  With Bo moving up, I have a hard time giving anyone more than a punchers chance at this weight.  

Last years NCAA champ (Michael Macchiavello) moved up from 184 where he DNP’d to NCAA champ the next year.  Somewhat of an indictment on 197 as a whole.  With the reigning 184 champ coming up, and only one elite blue chipper entering this weight (Warner), it’s tough to see this weight as anyones but Bo’s.  Prior to this change, the five I previously mentioned plus PSU’s Rasheed/Cassar entry would be considered potential title contenders.  

#2 - Penn State’s Shift Mitigates Risk

Theoretically swapping Shakur and Nickal will yield a similar point output.  Rasheed is unlikely to win 184 with Myles and potentially Zahid in the fold.  But he does have high placing potential.  Nickal is the likely champ at both weights, with the caveat that it’d be much tougher if Zahid comes up (Valencia beat Bo in two straight in Freestyle in 2016).  What it does do is mitigate some risk for Bo and gets him away from Myles (who he has owned the series against, but still has two losses to) and Zahid.  No such peer at this point exists at 197. 

Cassar going up at 285 at worst provides a great insurance policy if something were to happen to Nevills.  At best, it gives PSU an upgrade at 285, a weight that is wide open with the departures of Kyle Snyder and Adam Coon.  In summation, PSU got 41 points last year from 184-285.  I could see a slight lift in terms of 285 potential points with Nevills placing 7th and that weight losing serious firepower.  I think you can safely predict 45 points for PSU here.  Not a huge increase, but they got that much more bulletproof.  

#3 - Iowa And Oklahoma State Are Impacted, Slightly

At this point in the pre-season, Iowa and Oklahoma State seem to be the top challengers to Penn State coming into this season.  For the Hawkeyes, having Warner knocked down a rung only hurts at 197.  At 184, Wilcke has already been majored by Shakur Rasheed, so whether it’s Bo or Shakur, it’s tough to see whoever is there challenging their PSU counterpart.  

As far as Oklahoma State goes, it’s similar.  They have a title contender in Weigel who gets downgraded to a finalist contender.  I think Jacobe Smith or Dakota Geer actually match up somewhat well with Rasheed.  While they’re underdogs, I think Geers scrambling and Jacobe’s leg attack arsenal can make things interesting.  There’s at least some intrigue there, while I simply can’t unsee the Rasheed domination of Wilcke last year. 

#4 - When Penn State Changes Weights, It Works, So This Will Probably Work

There isn’t a team doing better in general at NCAA’s than Penn State, but what is overlooked is their wrestler's ability to change weights and succeed.  Jimmy Gulibon is one of the rare examples of a PSU guy who’s production dipped going up. Gulibon:  133 - DNP, 5th, 141 - DNP, DNP.  Another rare guy is Jordan Conaway, who was truly a 125 his whole career, but moved up for the lineup (Nico). Conaway: 133 - R12, Bench(Gulibon), 125 - 8th, 133 - 6th.

PSU's Weight Shift Greatest Hits

Quentin Wright: 174 - 6th, 184 - 1st, 2nd, 197 - 1st

David Taylor: 157 - 2nd, 165 - 1st (Hodge), 2nd, 1st (Hodge

Ed Ruth: 174 - 3rd, 1st, 184 - 1st, 1st

Zain Retherford: 141 - 5th, 149 - 1st, 1st(Hodge), 1st (Hodge)

Bo Nickal: 174 - 2nd, 184 - 1st, 1st

Shakur Rasheed: 165 - Did Not Start (Morelli), 174 - Did Not Start (Mark Hall), 197 - 7th

So all this to say, weight shifts for Penn State are typically a sign of success, and Bo Nickal has already proven he can move up and improve his performance.  In most cases, the weight change poured gasoline on their dominance. We will likely look back on this lineup shift as yet another smart chess move from Cael and Penn State.