Do you feel that? The cold air mean's we're less than a month from the start of NCAA wrestling season. The start of October is the official opening for preview szn.

125 lb Preseason Rankings

Like we always do at this time, the previews will start with the lightest weight class. After an excellent 2018 tournament that had five legitimate studs at the top, this year's 125 loses high level talent to graduation and guys moving up to 133. At this point, the two biggest question marks are if Nick Suriano moves up and where Oklahoma State puts Daton Fix and Nick Piccininni.

The beautiful thing about previews is looking back on them and seeing what the landscape was at the time of writing. I don't think the main title contender will change much, but new All-American candidates will emerge and fun darkhorses will come into our lives. Let's dive into 125, shall we?

The Favorite: Spencer Lee, Iowa

Well, this one wasn't hard. The first true freshman champ in the 20-year-history of the 125lb weight class, he tied Matt McDonough's 2012 NCAAs for the most points by a 125 at the national tournament (27).

I don't think I'm alone in thinking that the Pennsylvania native can rip through this season and be a Hodge finalist. We still don't know Oregon State's schedule yet, but it would be fun to see if he can avenge his loss to Ronnie Bresser at Midlands. Bresser and (maybe, possibly, potentially) Fix are the only curiosities for Lee, who last beat Suriano 5-1, pinned Nick Piccininni, and majored Sebastian Rivera 12-0.

For the rest of Spencer's career, there will be questions like, can he have a season with 100% bonus? Can he be a four-time champ? Will he break Cael Sanderson's career NCAA tournament points record? All remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: Spencer Lee is one of the heaviest favorites at any weight this season.

Down below, there are key dates for the heavy hitters, of which Lee factors heavily into three duals, plus of course Midlands at the end of December. But before we get there, here are your potential finalists opposite Lee.

The Clear #2: Nick Suriano, Rutgers

In two years in college, Surinao's only losses are to Hawkeyes: Thomas Gilman in 2017 and Spencer Lee in these past NCAA finals. But otherwise, he's beaten both of the 2017 NCAA finalists, and also has wins over last year's All-Americans Sebastian Rivera, Ronnie Bresser, and Zeke Moisey.

Some other stats for Suriano last year: 25-1 with 17 bonus point wins (6 majors, 8 techs, and 3 pinfalls). That was an improvement upon his freshmen year at Penn State, where he was 16-1 with 11 bonus point victories (7 majors, 2 techs, and 2 pinfalls). So roughly the same bonus rate, but picked up on his techs and pins.

There was a discussion as to whether Suriano should be in the 133lb preview or not. But we ranked him at 125, so he's going there for now. But to be very clear, even Rutgers, who Mike Mal and Ryan Holmes just visited, does not know which weight Suriano will be going this season. 

If you listened to FRL 303 when we did the 125 tiers, there were several guys mentioned as potential finalists if Suriano bumps up. Who are those guys? Glad you asked.

Best of the Rest

#3 Sebastian Rivera, Northwestern

#4 Ronnie Bresser, Oregon State

#5 Nick Piccininni, Oklahoma State

#6 Zeke Moisey, Nebraska

Between 2017 and 2018, this weight lost Thomas Gilman, Nathan Tomasello, Darian Cruz, Ethan Lizak, Joey Dance, and Jack Mueller. That's a good thing for a guy like Sebastian Rivera, who placed as a redshirt freshman and seems like a lock to place as long as he's in the tournament.

Is there anyone at 125 more difficult to take down than Ronnie Bresser? Going into NCAAs, he had only given up four takedowns on the year, but then gave them up that many between Elijah Oliver and Rivera. While the Lee upset in the Midlands semis showed his potential, he is more close to the guy who lost 9-4 to Ryan Millhof.

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Piccininni had the misfortune of losing to 1st place Spencer Lee and 4th place Ethan Lizak in Cleveland, the year after he himself took fourth. Aside from Lee, Picc might have the best top game at 125, to go along with an extremely consistent series of leg attacks.

That's right, Zeke Moisey is still in the mix. The 2015 NCAA finalist is back for one more season, but is now at Nebraska. It seems odd to say for a guy whose career was defined by inconsistency, but Moisey might be one of the safer bets in this year's field.

Sleepers and Landmines

#15 Christian Moody, Oklahoma

#18 Rayvon Foley, Michigan State

Shakur Laney, Ohio

Alonzo Allen, Chattanooga

We're ruling out the term "darkhorses" here, because that gets too contentious. We have instead agreed upon the dual terms sleepers and/or landmines, and I set my criteria as such: ranked 15 or lower, has never made the Round of 12, and cannot have been in the Top-30 on their final Big Board in high school.

Essentially, these are people who might be able to pull a big upset during the season or at NCAAs, but have not yet done something of that magnitude. Also, there is a section right below this called "new blood" that will take care of the Big Boarders.

Shakur Laney was the last man out of the rankings after not wrestling last year, and has beaten 16 NCAA qualifiers in his career, as well as a 1-0 loss to Darian Cruz the year he won a national title. Rayvon Foley seems to be a popular choice and looked good in Vegas in April. Alonzo Allen is a multiple time qualifier entering his senior year. Moody had a 4-1 match with Suriano last year that he lost, and has beaten Allen and pinned Noah Baughman of Cornell, who was probably the 34th best guy at this weight for two straight years.

I'm also including Brandon Courtney of Arizona State and Austin Assad of Michigan in here as "sleepers" because they might steal starting spots and cause problems this season.

New Blood

Pat Glory, Princeton

Gavin Teasdale, Penn State

Two of the marquee recruits from the class of 2018, as well as guys who have been wrestling each other since middle school. Glory finally earned a win over Teasdale (watch their WNO match below), but Teasdale returned the favor at the Pittsburgh Wrestling Classic. I believe Teasdale will ultimately be the Nittany Lion's starter, but that we might not see him until the second semester, just in case they don't want to burn his redshirt.

With Glory, I see a lot of Jack Mueller in him. That's why I'm rolling the dice on him to place as a true freshman, which should also tell you that I wouldn't dismiss anyone who picks Teasdale to place. Glory was a four-time New Jersey state finalist and twice won Super 32, and for good reason. The kid scrambles at a college level, has a developed top game, and will be big for the weight. Oh, and his coach won a couple national titles at this weight.

The Delbarton product will be thoroughly tested this season in duals, as well as being able to hit several high level guys at Midlands. That might hurt his seed a little, but he might just ride into NCAAs on a double-digit winning streak having beaten a previous AA in Connor Schram in the EIWA finals. Teasdale won't be as heavily tested, even including the Scuffle, so leaning on his high school resume would probably be wise.

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Key Dates

• Nov. 16th - Princeton at Iowa
• Jan. 6th - Northwestern at Nebraska
• Jan. 12th - Oklahoma State at Princeton
• Jan. 13th - Oklahoma State at Rutgers
• Jan. 18th - Rutgers at Iowa
• Jan. 20th - Nebraska at Penn State
• Jan. 27th - Iowa at Northwestern
• Feb. 3rd - Princeton at Rutgers
• Feb. 8th - Minnesota at Nebraska
• Feb. 24th - Iowa at Oklahoma State

Unfortunately, Oregon State's schedule is not out yet, so it's hard to pinpoint key dates for Ronnie Bresser. However, looks like basically all the top guys will get tested during the year, as well as the young bucks Glory and Teasdale.

I didn't include CKLV, Reno, Midlands, or Scuffle, however, those fields will be loaded and factor heavily into rankings and seeding. The two biggest dates to circle are January 13 (Oklahoma State at Rutgers) and February 24 (Iowa at Oklahoma State) if both Daton Fix and Nick Suriano wind up at 125.

Aside from those, I've highlighted Pat Glory's major tests, as well as Teasdale's showdown with Moisey. I also included a match between AAs Sean Russell and Moisey, as well as Rivera's opportunities to see Moisey and Lee in duals.

Nomad's Predictions

1. Spencer Lee, Iowa
2. Nick Suriano, Rutgers
3. Sebastian Rivera, Northwestern
4. Nick Piccininni, Oklahoma State
5. Ronnie Bresser, Oregon State
6. Pat Glory, Princeton
7. Zeke Moisey, Nebraska
8. Sean Russell, Minnesota

If Suriano bumps up, make Sean Fausz the eighth placer. There's a real question in my mind about Rivera vs Piccininni for that spot below Spencer and Suriano. Those two did not meet last year, but the Cowboy was probably a little better during his 2017 season than Rivera was during the 2018 season. For now, recency bias has me going with Rivera.

Bresser has too much upside and is so staunch defensively it's hard not to see him placing again in this sort of field. I like Glory to place for all the reasons mentioned above. For all that was made of Moisey's career, the young man is in position to end his career as a three-time placer.

The last spot was pretty difficult. I barely mentioned Russell at all and didn't bring up Fausz till this last portion of the preview. It's hard to pick Fausz given that there are always concerns his performance might be affected by weight cut. Fair or not, that is the perception of the NC State senior, who lost to Louie Hayes at the national tournament. Oh yeah, Hayes is ranked 8th to start the year.

Ultimately, it's Spencer Lee's world, and the rest of the 125s are just living in it.