2018-19 NCAA Preview & Predictions: 149 Pounds
2018-19 NCAA Preview & Predictions: 149 Pounds
Previewing the 2018-19 NCAA season at 149 lbs, including sleepers, predictions, and key dates to watch.
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Billy Joe Armstrong has finally awakened from his slumber. It is September no more. Instead, the calendar reads October, primetime for NCAA previews. And that is exactly what we shall do: probe, ponder, and predict what will unfold in the upcoming collegiate wrestling season.
Two-time Hodge Trophy winner Zain Retherford's graduation left a gaping vortex in the 149-pound weight class. Into the breach will step a mighty band of glory seeking competitors in a division the Zain Train has completely owned the last three seasons.
Four other All-Americans from 2018 besides Retherford also exhausted their NCAA eligibility, ensuring that 149 will be one of the most protean of all the collegiate divisions.
NCAA Previews: 125 | 133 | 141
The Favorites
There are no favorites
Plenty of contenders, though. Alrighty, so much for this section!
The Contenders
#1 Matt Kolodzik, Princeton
#2 Micah Jordan, Ohio State
#3 Anthony Ashnault, Rutgers
We limited these section to only three wrestlers, but consider that an arbitrary cutoff, as this is one of the more wide-open weight classes, and any number of competitors have a shot at the title.
Matt Kolodzik is the highest-placing returning 149-er. Kolodzilla had a slow start to last season and entered the NCAA Tournament as an 11th seed. However, the Blair Academy product finished on the third place step of the NCAA podium. Matt's also got two wins over Anthony Ashnualt, the three-time All-American from South Plainfield, NJ, who was granted a medical redshirt to compete in the 2018-19 season.
Ashnault will be mobbin' up a weight class from where he last competed collegiately. Anthony has two wins over the aforementioned Kolodzik, including their most recent meeting at the 2017 NCAA Tournament. The New Jersey native's addition to the weight class adds to what was already shaping up to be quite the party at 149.
Additionally, pencil in Micah Jordan to the 149-pound guest list. Keep in mind, however, that the Buckeyes have not officially settled their lineup, and talented redshirt junior Ke-Shawn Hayes will have an opportunity to win the 149 spot in the lineup. Jordan has the pedigree, however, finishing fourth at 149 in 2017 and sixth last year at 157 pounds.
None of these studs are locks to make the finals. I mean there are three of them, how would that even work? But what I mean is that there are scads of quality wrestlers in this weight class, and no one should be shocked if they see a Ronnie Perry 2.0 performance from a 15-seed or thereabouts in Pittsburgh.
Check out Ashnault winning the most important match of his career series with Kolodzik in St. Louis:
Best of the Rest
#4 Grant Leeth, Missouri
#5 Boo Lewallen, Oklahoma State
#6 Pat Lugo, Iowa
#7 Justin Oliver, North Carolina State
#8 Max Thomsen, Northern Iowa
#9 Brock Zacherl, Clarion
#10 Mitch Finesilver, Duke
#11 Tommy Thorn, Minnesota
Despite the graduation of five of 2018's 149-pound All-Americans, this division remains very solid. Grant Leeth is the highest returning placer after Kolodzik. The neck-braced Missourian is pound-for-pound one of the strongest wrestlers in college and will look to improve on his sixth-place finish from Cleveland.
Boo Lewallen had to fight his way through a crowded Oklahoma State roster just to make the postseason, but Boo made the most of his opportunity once he secured a spot in the lineup, finishing eighth at the NCAAs.
Pat Lugo has yet to make the podium, but a redshirt season after transferring from Edinboro to Iowa may be just what the doctor ordered to accomplish that.
A prime illustration of how deep 149 pounds is a trio of All-Americans who all missed the podium last season. Justin Oliver is at NC State for his senior season but was an All-American in 2016 for Central Michigan; Max Thomsen placed fifth in 2017; and Tommy Thorn placed eighth at 141 pounds, also in 2017.
Last season, Brock Zacherl had just one loss on the year going into the NCAAs. As the seven seed, Zacherl won his first two matches, including a win over eventual All-American Chad Red, but then ran into the buzzsaw that was the 2018 141-pound weight class, dropping consecutive matches to Jaydin Eierman and Kevin Jack.
Mitch Finesilver rounds out our list. Finesilver has two wins over Pat Lugo, who beat our No. 1-ranked Matt Kolodzik last season. So you see, ranking this weight class is probably going to be an exercise in abject misery all season long.
Watch Leeth, Leeth's neck brace and Leeth's rubber-knee beat Lewallen in Historic Gallagher-Iba:
Sleepers and Landmines
#16 Baby J Bannister, Maryland
#19 Jared Prince, Navy
Davion Jeffries, Oklahoma
Khristian Olivas, Fresno State
Are these dark horses? Neigh, they are sleepers and landmines. A subtle but necessary distinction.
Baby J Bannister is entering his fifth year in College Park, Maryland. He's won three matches over the last two NCAA tournaments and could be problems for anyone not accustomed with his stout and powerful frame.
Jared Prince is also problems, notching wins over the likes of Ronnie Perry and Jarod Verkleeren in the last two years. Davion Jeffries notched an impressive upset at the Lindenwood Open where he beat Grant Leeth 3-1. And Khristian Olivas beat Jeffries in the NCAA tournament, once again demonstrating why 149 pounds provides nothing but endless torment for NCAA rankers.
Check out Prince winning third-place at the Southern Scuffle over the tough Sammy Krivus of Virginia:
New Blood
Austin O'Connor, North Carolina
Brady Berge, Penn State
Tanner Smith, Chattanooga
Austin O'Connor had one of the most impressive redshirt seasons of any 149-pounder, going 20-3, including a first-period pinfall over Minnesota's Steve Bleise. Brady Berge only wrestled in one tournament but he, along with O'Connor, were both blue-chip recruits, and it's no surprise that both respective fan bases are chomping at the bit to see these two in varsity action.
It was in freestyle but O'Connor and Berge's best-of-three series in the finals of the Junior World Team Trials was too epic not to mention here. Check it out the deciding third match below:
Tanner Smith did not have the toughest schedule as a true freshman, but the young man from Ohio won every match he wrestled in last season. Eastern Michigan University shamefully folded their program before Smith could wrestle a dual meet, so now fans of the Chattanooga Mocs will get the pleasure of rooting for Tanner to stay undefeated.
Key Dates
- November 16 - Princeton at Iowa (Kolodzik vs Lugo)
- January 3 - Northern Iowa at Missouri (Thomsen vs Leeth)
- January 6 - North Carolina State at Ohio State (Oliver vs Jordan)
- January 11 - North Carolina at Princeton (O'Connor vs Kolodzik)
- January 13 - Oklahoma State at Rutgers (Lewallen vs Ashnault)
- February 3 - Princeton at Rutgers (Kolodzilla vs Shnaulty ROUND 5)
- February 8 - Penn State at Ohio State (Berge vs Jordan)
- Febryary 24 - Iowa at Oklahoma State (Lugo vs Lewallen — told you this dual would be featured in many weight classes).
We once again omit the CKLV, Reno TOC, Midlands, and Scuffle, but those are all awesome and critical college tournaments that you should definitely check them out as well.
Ashnault hits a gnarly four week stretch of duals in early 2019 where he's scheduled to hit Lewallen, Lugo, and Kolodzik. Before PSU's showdown with tOSU in February, a good early test for Brady Berge could be December 2 when the Nittany Lions take on intrastate rival Lehigh and round of 16 finisher Cortlandt Schuyler.
Boo Lewallen does not have an easy schedule, but then none of the Cowboys do. He'll see Kolodzik and Ashnault back-to-back on February 12 and February 13. And then, of course, his matchup with Iowa and Pat Lugo should be fire as well.
It also appears that Princeton head coach Chris Ayers wanted to make sure his star wrestler would be battle-tested come March, as Kolodzik is slated to hit a murder's row of 149-pounders this season.
Spey's Spredictions
1st: Micah Jordan, Ohio State
2nd: Anthony Ashnault, Rutgers
3rd: Matt Kolodzik, Princeton
4th: Grant Leeth, Missouri
5th: Pat Lugo, Iowa
6th: Justin Oliver, North Carolina State
7th: Austin O'Connor, North Carolina
8th: Boo Lewallen, Oklahoma State
R12: Brady Berge, Penn State
R12: Brock Zacherl, Clarion
R12: Max Thomsen, Northern Iowa
R12: Mitch Finesilver, Duke
I predict all the way out to the Round of 12, unlike Nomad, who remains a coward.
While sussing my tea leaves, I see Micah Jordan putting it all together at his best weight for a championship senior season. My tasseographic training tells me that the tea leaves are also calling for Ashnault to outplace his intra-state rival Kolodzik.
Of course, I have limited confidence in my ability look at some tea leaves and then accurately predict the NCAAs here in early October, but I will plow ahead with the predictions anyway.
I think Grant Leeth will power his way to a fourth-place finish and that Pat Lugo will get the better of Justin Oliver, who will go two for four in career bloodround matches.
Lewallen should be able to once again do just enough to make the podium, while Tar Heel superfrosh Austin O'Connor earns All-American honors on his first attempt.
Perhaps it was foolish of me to pick O'Connor over Berge after the latter beat the former to make the Junior World Team, but that was at 70 kg (or 154 pounds) and it remains to be seen if Berge can be effective at 149 pounds for a full season (Berge's one tournament last season was at 157 pounds). If the weight is no problem for Berge, however, then the sky is the limit for the young man from Minnesota.
Zacherl, Thomsen, and Finesilver are all tremendous talents, all of whom I will be rooting for in March, but alas, I've once again run out of All-American places before I've run out of All-American caliber wrestlers.
OK that's it for 149 pounds. So long, 149! Nomad is back for 157, but not until after the weekend. Our choice content has to run while everyone else is procrastinating at work. Sorry, but those are the rules of the internet publishing.
See you next week my friends!