2018-19 NCAA Preview & Predictions: 157 Pounds
2018-19 NCAA Preview & Predictions: 157 Pounds
Previewing everything you need to know about 157lbs in the 2018-19 season, including predictions, sleepers and landmines, as well as key dates to watch for.
Unlock this article, live events, and more with a subscription!
Already a subscriber? Log In
The first official day of practice is this Wednesday, October 10th. That means it's preview szn, and we have reached our halfway point. Charging on with 157, you'll find everything you need to know about this weight class below.
It's no secret that Jason Nolf is on pace to become an all-time legend in college wrestling, but these previews seek to go over more than just the top dog. Included will be other finalist contenders, strong All-American candidates, sleepers and landmines, as well as key dates to circle on your calendar.
Only one of last year's placers graduated, and that was surprise AA Luke Zilverberg of South Dakota State, who came into NCAAs as the 13 seed and finished the season with double digit losses. However, Michael Kemerer is moving up to 174, a guy who was third and fourth the past two years, and Micah Jordan is dropping back down to 149. Additionally, 2017 finalist and last year's two seed in Joey Lavallee has graduated, moving on to the Valley RTC.
There is still plenty of firepower at this weight though. Ryan Deakin, Ke-Shawn Hayes, and Steve Bleise are all bumping up, plus three of the four guys in the Round of 12 last year are back once again. I think there are five legitimate threats to make the finals against Nolf, with varying degrees of success against one another. On to the full preview.
NCAA Previews: 125 | 133 | 141 | 149
The Favorite: #1 Jason Nolf, Penn State
The last five years of NCAA champs at 157 is an absolute murderers row: Nolf in 2017 and 2018, Isaiah Martinez in 2015 and 2016, and Alex Dieringer in 2014. They've combined to make 10 NCAA finals, and Dieringer's third place finish as a freshman was the lowest any of them placed.
Along with Bo Nickal, he represents the co-favorite Hodge front-runner heading into his final season. He should be fully recovered from his knee injury, and I think 20 pins is very much in play this year. There's an outside shot he'll hit 100 career points at the NCAA tournament, but that would require a pretty Herculean effort.
There are certain athletes in any given sport that are appointment viewing. Fans tune in to watch their spectacular goals, or crisp passing, or mind boggling feats of athleticism. Nolf's reached that point in the wrestling community, someone who seems to be making up moves as he goes along, but is really just pushing the sport into new realms. Maybe it's the reminder that injuries can derail careers, but if I were you, I'd make sure to watch every time Nolf takes the mat this year.
Best of the Rest
#2 Hayden Hidlay, NC State
#3 Josh Shields, Arizona State
#4 Alec Pantaleo, Michigan
#5 Tyler Berger, Nebraska
#7 Ryan Deakin, Northwestern
The Wolfpack’s 2016 recruiting class is going to carry it into the next phase of the Pat Popolizio era. Mike Macchiavello, Kevin Jack, and Pete Renda have all graduated, leaving Hidlay, Tariq Wilson, and Nick Reenan to carry the load in Raleigh. Hidlay underhooked his way to the NCAA finals, his only loss of the season but one of the few guys who was able to hold Nolf to a decision. He also fell to Josh Shields at Midlands during his redshirt season, but he won’t get a chance to avenge that loss until March. However, he’ll still be battle tested as this is clearly the best weight class in the ACC.
Shields had a phenomenal season, only losing four times, all of which were against All-Americans. One of those guys (Michael Kemerer) is up at 174, another (Luke Zilverberg) has graduated, and Micah Jordan is dropping to 149. He had head-to-heads over both Pantaleo and Berger, things that won’t matter this year when it comes to seeding but points of note when Shields has to face them this season.
Since losing to Imar in the 2016 NCAA finals, no one has pushed Nolf like Pantaleo did in the Michigan/Penn State dual back on January 12th. The Wolverine senior also scored the first takedown of the match against Hidlay in both the NCAA semis and U.S. Open semis, but big moves came back to cost him. While Pantaleo has certainly taken some head scratching losses, it's clear he is one of the most talented guys at this weight, and the power and speed of his leg attacks are very difficult to stop.
At the beginning of the year, if you told college fans Berger would get third, it wouldn't have been a point that was laughed at. But then Berger had a tough season, losing to guys ranked well below him and having close matches with unranked guys. Now a senior, he, Nolf, and Pantaleo are the senior leaders of this weight.
Yes, Deakin failed to make the podium last year. But like Nick Piccininni at 125, you have to actually look at his bracket and see why that is. Losses to former NCAA champ Jason Tsirtsis and four-time AA Brandon Sorensen help explain it, and I think he is closer to the guy we saw the past two years on the freestyle scene than the non placer he was in Cleveland.
Sleepers and Landmines
#11 Larry Early, Old Dominion
#14 Taleb Rahmani, Pittsburgh
#15 Justin Thomas, Oklahoma
Andrew Shomers, Oklahoma State
Once a Top-20 recruit, it was expected that Early would make a national level impact after high school. But then he left Minnesota and failed to qualify for NCAAs in his first season at Old Dominion, at one point spending some time up at 165. But he went 157 full-time in 2018, going 2-2 at the national tournament and avenging a loss to Colin Heffernan from the previous year's MAC tournament.
Rahmani is the classic guy that looks good in losses to high level guys, which doesn't help your ranking but certainly shows a baseline level of talent and provides a reason for optimism. Berger showed flashes of brilliance at CKLV, beating Andrew Crone in overtime and nearly knocking off Berger.
Shomers represents a transfer to a big-time program that can have a major impact in Stillwater. While not necessarily an AA candidate, when you're in a room working out with guys who have placed, it makes it easier to jump levels.
New Blood
Zander Wick, Wisconsin
Cam Coy, Virginia
Quentin Hovis, Navy
David Carr, Iowa State
Wick is new blood in the sense that he is coming up in weight. His season was cut short after an injury at CKLV, but represents someone who can make a big jump into the rankings in Chris Bono's first year in Madison.
Coy and Hovis were the two highest rated 157s from the 2017 Big Board, so they are obligatory mentions here. Plenty of blue chips had redshirt seasons like theirs that weren't overwhelming but still went on to have very successful careers overall.
No one's sure yet if Carr will be wrestling right away or redshirting, but he's one of the few true freshman at any weight that can have a legitimate impact this season.
Key Dates
Nov. 18th: Ohio State at Arizona State (Hayes vs Shields)
Dec. 14th: Arizona State at Penn State (Shield vs Nolf)
Dec. 16th: Nebraska at NC State (Berger vs Hidlay)
Jan. 6th: Northwestern at Nebraska (Deakin vs Berger)
Jan. 11th: Penn State at Northwestern (Nolf vs Deakin)
Jan. 20th: Nebraska at Penn State (Berger vs Nolf)
Feb. 1st: Michigan at Penn State (Pantaleo vs Nolf)
Feb. 10th: Northwestern at Michigan (Deakin vs Pantaleo)
Nomad's Predictions
- Jason Nolf, Penn State
- Hayden Hidlay, NC State
- Alec Pantaleo, Michigan
- Ryan Deakin, Northwestern
- Josh Shields, Arizona State
- Tyler Berger, Nebraska
- Kennedy Monday, North Carolina
- John Van Brill, Rutgers
NCAAs will be a coronation for Nolf.
Although Hidlay's offensive output worries me somewhat, he seems like one of those guys poised to have a career where he never places lower than third. I think that in part because he has beaten Pantaleo, Deakin, and Berger, but some guys certainly may be able to catch up to him.
Pantaleo joins a long list of Wolverines to place three times, but falls short of a title. Deakin rights the ship from last season, but is just a tad below those three guys above him, however, he's the one most likely to upset the apple cart. Shields is too consistent not to place again, and gets another win over Berger.
Kennedy Monday is ranked 9th, so he’s no longer a sleeper or a landmine. He beat three All-Americans last season and is perhaps the non-AA returning at this weight who is most widely recognized as someone with a great shot to place. At this point, it's no longer surprising when Rutgers gets guys on the podium, and I think that continues this year with Van Brill.
Ke-Shawn Hayes is tough to assess, because he was thinking about 141 at the start of last season and will likely be very undersized. Paul Fox is squirrelly and hard to read during the regular season, but has placed and made the Round of 12 in his past two trips to the national tournament. Luke Weiland is another guy who should in that Round of 12 mix.