During NBA All-Star weekend in 1988, Larry Bird came into the locker room before the 3-point contest and said out loud, “So who’s finishing second?”

That’s kind of what we’re looking at this year, with Penn State being Larry Bird. I’ve been on record numerous times saying that they are going to win NCAAs by a comfortable margin. Just like Oklahoma State in 2005 or Iowa in 2010, the Nittany Lions are currently a massive favorite to win the team title.  That's my personal read on the team race this year.

At some point, we will see another school win a title, and be as far ahead of the field as this PSU squad is. But right now, everyone’s fighting for the #2 spot. Let's use some visualization to help illustrate that.

The graphs below use our team rankings to show the point values for Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa. Our team rankings do not factor in bonus, so guys ranked #1 get the minimum 20 team points as a projection of their contribution at NCAAs, second place gets 16 point, etc.

As you can see, all three teams have a guy ranked #1, and therefore getting 20 projected team points. What's separating PSU this year, and nearly every year for the past eight, is that they have multiple top ranked wrestlers. Meanwhile, Iowa's team points start falling quickly as their next highest ranked guy is a #2 and then a couple guy ranked fourth. Similarly, Ohio State's next two highest ranked are #2, then a #3, and then a #6.

What's this all mean? It means that if you take half of Penn State's lineup, they project to 89.5 team points, while the Buckeyes are at 74.5 and the Hawkeyes at 67.5. The projected point values for their second, third, and fourth best guys are precipitous falloff from the the Nittany Lions. Both teams have more ranked guys and thus more projected point scorers, but you rarely get big production from the lesser half of your lineup.

Now, let's look at the main teams batting for runner-up this March in Pittsburgh, as well as a few other teams in contention for a team trophy.

Ohio State Buckeyes

The Buckeyes have quite a bit of high end talent in #1 Myles Martin, #2 Joey McKenna, #2 Micah Jordan, and #2 Kollin Moore. Having four potential finalists is the main reason I think they’re the best bet to finish second. You’d be confident too heading into NCAAs feeling like you already have about 70-80 points guaranteed.

Luke Pletcher is ranked sixth at 133 but will be in a dogfight this year to place at that weight. Ke-Shawn Hayes is on the outside looking in at 157 but could certainly make the podium.

Sidebar, but what is the nice way to say “weight most fans and prognosticators don’t expect to score team points at NCAAs?” Calling it a hole certainly seems disrespectful to the wrestler putting in the work, but part of Ohio State’s issue is they have as many four weights that could be considered “holes” this season. Doesn’t mean they can’t place, but purely based on their results so far you’d have a hard time expecting them to score meaningful points in Pittsburgh.

Those weights in question are 125, 165, 174, and heavyweight. If any one of Brakan Mead, Kaleb Romero, Ethan Smith, or Chase Singletary can make a deep run or pick up bonus points, they'll probably be bringing the second place trophy back to Columbus for the third straight year.

For tOSU fans, getting second again would be frustrating enough by itself. But they may once again put up 100+ points, which would be the fourth time in five years that's happened. The Buckeyes are responsible for two of the top nine highest scoring runner-up teams ever, and could again be in among the highest totals if you combine the second place team's points with the first place team's points.

Iowa Hawkeyes

The Hawkyes took a massive hit with the news that Michael Kemerer would be out for the year. But they’ve still got bonus machine Spencer Lee, plus #2 Sam Stoll at heavyweight. Jacob Warner is #4 at 197, a weight that is perpetually a crapshoot, and Alex Marinelli is also #4 in the very tough 165 pound field.

Where the Black & Gold can do damage is at weights like 157 with Kaleb Young and 141 with Max Murin. Austin DeSanto is in this year’s toughest weight and didn’t place last year in what was considered a weaker field. On paper, Iowa seems to have fewer “sure things” than tOSU but more overall team depth.

The question marks are at 174 and 184. Myles Wilson or Mitch Bowman could be the guy eventually at 174, so anything more than qualifier level is a bonus there. Cash Wilcke has already made the Round of 12 twice, so getting a handful of points from him is not out of the question.

They still have nine guys ranked, which is akin to what Ohio State had last year. It's also important to remember that they scored the most bonus points of any team at NCAAs last year, more than both PSU and the Buckeyes.

NC State Wolfpack

Currently in fourth right now, this one comes as a bit of a surprise, as they graduated three guys and were outside of the top eight in returning team points. There's still good reason to doubt they'll finish second, or possibly even get a team trophy. Let's run through those concerns.

Sean Fausz has yet to wrestle this season, which in large part is due to him being the 61kg rep at U23s. But he also only wrestled in 19 matches last season and went 1-2 at NCAAs, so his #5 ranking does not have a high level of guarantee behind it. Tariq Wilson is undefeated so far, but hasn't faced anyone ranked and was a surprise third placer to begin with last year, in a weight that is now even tougher than it was.

Justin Oliver has been to the bloodround three times in his career, and was only able to push through his freshman year. We'll have more info on where he stacks up once their conference duals start happening.

Hayden Hidlay just lost to Larry Early, and although that doesn't mean the sky is falling, there's basically nowhere to go but down for him. He lost one match last year, to Nolf in the finals. Anything below second probably means he's scoring fewer points for them.

Lastly, Nicky Reenan has quickly ascended to #7 in the rankings at 184, and he does have two wins over ranked foes. But he did go 0-2 in his only trip to the national tournament. Now, that was down a weight two years ago before he fought his way into Final X, so you feel a little bit more comfortable about his projected performance now, but still.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

No team's roster was more uncertain coming this year than Oklahoma State. We still haven't seen Joe Smith wrestle anywhere, and that's a guy with two AA finishes under his belt. The other big issue is if Boo Lewallen will come back. He placed this past March, but there currently is a redshirt freshman manning his 149lb spot, albeit an excellent one in Kaden Gfeller.

All three of their lightweights can outperform their current ranking: Nick Piccininni is ranked fourth but can make the finals, Daton Fix is ranked seventh and could also make the finals, Kaid Brock is #9 but has been an AA twice.

As for the back half of the lineup, Chandler Rogers and Jacobe Smith have already placed, and Derek White is ranked fifth. Dakota Geer is trending in the right direction and Preston Weigel has returned. So there's probably eight legitimate threats to place, but it will likely resemble a situation similar to 2017. Even if things fall into place and they all land on the podium, the lack of high end talent caps out how many points they can score.