2019 NCAA Championships

2019 NCAA Tournament Preview + Predictions: 125 Pounds

2019 NCAA Tournament Preview + Predictions: 125 Pounds

Previewing the 2019 NCAA tournament at 125 pounds and making predictions for all eight All-American spots.

Mar 14, 2019 by Wrestling Nomad
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The season has reached its crescendo. There are 330 wrestlers now standing at the foot of the mountain that is the NCAA championships, and only 10 will scale it.

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The season has reached its crescendo. There are 330 wrestlers now standing at the foot of the mountain that is the NCAA championships, and only 10 will scale it.

Like we always do at this time, the content will be coming in fast and furious for the signature event of the wrestling calendar. Today starts the sprint of previews, kicking off with 125 pounds.

NCAA Brackets in FloArena

At the beginning of the season, there was a feeling around the country that this would be a boring weight, at least when it came to determining the national champ. Spencer Lee had majored Sebastian Rivera, the highest returning placer from 2018, 12-0 in their last meeting, and pinned Nick Piccininni, who finished fourth in 2017 but did not place last year, in their most recent meeting.

Then Midlands happened, and everything changed. Rivera emerged as the favorite to some, and at the very least became a legitimate threat to derail Spencer's quest at becoming a four-timer. But Spencer would still make the finals, right? Well, that's a little harder to believe after Nick Piccininni pinned him in Stillwater.

Lest we forget though, the Hawkeye came into NCAAs as the three seed last year carrying the weight of two losses, and turned in the most dominating performance in the 20-year history of the weight class. The best version of Spencer Lee is historically notable, especially in the first period of matches.

Weight Class Previews: 133 | 141 | 149 | 157 | 165 | 174

Enough about that, let's get into the preview.

Title Contenders

#1 Sebastian Rivera, Northwestern

#2 Nick Piccininni, Oklahoma State

#3 Spencer Lee, Iowa

#4 Ronnie Bresser, Oregon State

#5 Jack Mueller, Virginia

All-American Threats

#6 Sean Russell, Minnesota

#7 Pat Glory, Princeton

#8 Vito Arujau, Cornell

#9 Rayvon Foley, Michigan State

#10 Brent Fleetwood, North Dakota State

I'm ready for all your "disrespect" talk. Bring it, please. I'm sleeping on all of you. And you know what, if I'm the reason you place or win a national title, because I put you in a different tier in a preview, you're welcome.

Ok now that that's out of the way, shoutout to the tri-state area! It's supposed to be New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, but this is wrestling, so replace CT with PA. Not to spoil anything, but three quarters of my AA picks wrestled in those states in high school. I suppose we shouldn't be surprised, considering those states accounted for 28.5 percent of all the NCAA qualifiers.

I battled back and forth about how many should be under the "title contenders" header, but everyone agrees Spencer Lee is a title contender and Ronnie Bresser beat him the last time they wrestled, plus Mueller is undefeated. So that's how I came to that.

As for the AA threats, just check the resumes. This weight was basically seeded perfectly. Travis Piotrowski and on down the line, of course they can place. But based on resume, it's going to be very surprising for guys seeded 11 and below to crack into the placing round. Which of course means this bracket will get destroyed.

I decided to break this preview down by session, so let's get it rocking.

Session I

Matches to Watch:

Cole Verner vs Brent Fleetwood

Zeke Moisey vs Ryan Millhof

Alex Mackall vs Drew Hildebrandt

Michael McGee vs Gabe Townsell

Drew Mattin vs Elijah Oliver

RayVon Foley vs Carmen Ferrante

If we're not being corny and saying, "it's the biggest tournament of the year and anything can happen, all the first rounders are matches to watch!" these are the ones I'd circle.

Cole Verner is from a program that always puts guys on the podium and wrestles very hard. Not saying Verner necessarily can find his way on the podium, but Coach Branch and his staff always seem to have a couple guys really ready to roll come tournament time. In the dual, it was three takedowns to zero in favor of Fleetwood, but the last one came with about 15 seconds left to win 6-5.

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The next one is a battle of transfers who have kind of fallen from grace. After making the finals as a freshman in 2015, Zeke Moisey hasn't quite been the same guy, though he did place last year. No one quite knows how he'll do after going 0-2 at Big Tens and clearly looking hurt. Similarly, Ryan Millhof missed a huge chunk of the year and hasn't looked like the guy who placed seventh in 2016.

When seeing that Michael McGee went 28-4, the question arises as to whether it was a bit of an "inflated" record. He didn't miss any time and wrestled everyone in front of him, but he didn't necessarily hit many high seeds during the year. Plus, Gabe Townsell is an absolute wildcard because he's got some upperbody stuff and mixers in his arsenal.

Elijah Oliver is a four-time qualifier who has split with Drew Mattin this year, really looking forward to that one. RayVon Foley appeared to be injured at Big Tens, and Carmen Ferrante gave Pat Glory all he could handle in the EIWA semis.

Session II

The heartbreak round. Not quite as gut wrenching as Friday night, but this is where cute first round upsets turn into legitimate bracket busters and seniors on their last legs either bow out or continue the long slog through the backside to place.

Foley being hurt really puts a damper on his potential second round match with Arujau. That's an 8/9 matchup, so of course it's the easiest to identify as the best second round matchup.

The 7/10 is the next easiest to identify, but Fleetwood against Glory could be fantastic. Fleetwood is coached by Jarrod Garnett, a former All-American himself who has coached several 125s on to the podium. But Glory is coached by two-time NCAA champ Joe Dubuque and Glory has that intangible "gamer" factor, so give me Glory.

Talking about draws though, man, Nick Piccininni was done no favors. He should absolutely be considered the favorite en route to the semis, but his second round match is against Sean Fausz, who beat Picc 9-5 in the Italy dual last January. Oh, and then he has a guy in the quarters that he couldn't take down the one time they wrestled this season.

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Session III

Rivera over Arujau

Bresser over Mueller

Lee over Russell

Piccininni over Glory

You can mainline these quarterfinals right into my veins on Friday morning. No one is going to need any coffee when they wake up on the 22nd, they simply need to get to the PPG Paints Arena and feel buzz in the air as the lightest weight class puts on a show in the morning.

Right at the top is perhaps the best bet for an upset special in this tournament. I'm not picking it, but if you told me Vito somehow knocks off Rivera right before lunch on Friday, I wouldn't flinch. I honestly think it will be Rivera's hardest match of the tournament, and perhaps one where he is trailing in the third. Every national champ gets a little moment each tournament, and I think this could be his if he wins the whole thing.

Ronnie Bresser vs Jack Mueller is exactly what we want out of a four/five matchup. It's a tossup, both guys have excellent resumes, are All-Americans, and could present problems for the one seed. I think Bresser's combination of being able to get out from under anyone, as well as how difficult it is to take him down, puts Mueller in a bad spot. Bresser's elite speed gets it done in a one takedown match.

Lee over Russell is the least exciting, we've seen it before, and it's never been in doubt. This is where Iowa fans should feel great about Spencer's draw. The Gopher has been outscored 27-0 in three matches against Lee over the past two years.

At the very bottom is the match I teased in the previous section, Piccininni vs Glory. When they met on January 12th at Princeton, Glory took down Picc in the first and third periods. He also stopped every one of the Cowboy's shots and was close to getting another takedown in the first. But, Glory has sometimes shown himself to be vulnerable on bottom in his true freshman season, and was turned twice, once for two and once for four, getting ridden out in the second.


Session IV

Rivera 8-5 over Bresser

Piccininni 6-5 over Lee

Rematch time! It will be the second time this year we've seen Rivera against Bresser, likewise for Piccininni verse Lee.

Friday night has produced some craziness the past few years at 125. Last year, both guys who were national champs lost in the semis, with Lee pinning Nathan Tomasello in the third period. The year prior, Darian Cruz upset Thomas Gilman with one of the most creative takedowns we've seen on that stage. In 2016, Gilman pinned defending champ Tomasello in sudden victory and who can forget Zeke Moisey sucking Gilman into a cradle off a single leg in one of the loudest moments anyone can remember at the national tournament.

Rivera has had two very interesting matches with Bresser, with last year's 12-2 win at NCAAs being slightly misleading due a to a late takedown and nearfall. The match as a whole much more closely resembled their overtime match from the CKLV final. I think Bresser comes right out and doesn't give Bresser an opportunity to get in on a shot in the first period like he did in their previous two matches. It could be a bad read on my part, but I think Rivera finally cracks the code and gets Bresser a couple times with his own offense.

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Session V

Ah yes, the best session of wrestling that no one watches. The most sparsely attended portion of the tournament is perhaps the most entertaining, as guys who have already placed either stop wrestling hard (think Dylan Palacio) or push through for the next best thing (think Nathan Tomasello).

In the consi semis, Spencer Lee techs Vito in a way we haven't seen him in college. Despite giving up the opening takedown, something snaps in the Hawkeye sophomore. He takes Vito down and turns him for four. He gets off bottom right away in the second, and hits his dump to four to go up 14-2. Starting on top in the third, he hits his bar and finishes off the tech before the match hits six minutes, with well over three minutes of riding time.

In the other consi semi, Ronnie Bresser frustrates Pat Glory in the first and it ends 0-0. Bresser gets out in the second but Glory picks up around 45 seconds of riding time. The Tiger chases Bresser around but the Beaver does give up a stall. Dubuque says something in between periods, and Glory is up and out right away. Bresser shoots a low single, and they're scrambling. Glory finishes the takedown but Bresser gets out. Dubuque wants Glory to close out the match and he does, with a clean Iranian finish and rideout.

In the placing matches, Jack Mueller comfortably beats Sean Russell, Vito beats Bresser by five, and Spencer Lee beats Pat Glory by seven, somewhere in between their match in the dual and the quarterfinal at Midlands, but with Glory getting the escape late to prevent the major.


Session VI

Rivera 7-4 over Piccininni

It comes down to the only two guys who were undefeated at the weight all year long. Rivera has looked the part of national champ for months now, winning CKLV, Midlands, and Big Tens. Meanwhile Piccininni has picked off everyone in his path, not having one misstep en route to titles at Reno, the Scuffle, and Big 12s.

One thing Rivera has done extremely well this season is get the first takedown of the match. He did it against Bresser in Vegas, did it against Spencer in Midlands, and will do it here. In fact, he'll get two and finish the period on top with a 4-1 lead.

In the second, Rivera will take bottom, which is where things get interesting. The Cowboy junior has gotten so good at turning guys either direction with his cross wrist tilt, even being able to win matches without scoring a takedown. He makes things interesting with a quick two count after riding Rivera for a little, but the Wildcat escapes to make it 5-3 entering the third.

Picc is up and out right away, making it a one point match and the crowd is on the edge of their seat. He patiently hand fights and chases Rivera around the ring, picking up his pace and firing off some shots. Going out of bounds, Rivera gets hit for stalling. He looks over at Brewer, and within three second after the whistle he's in deep on a shot. The sophomore cuts Picc right away, and it ends 7-4.


Nomad's AA Picks

  1. Rivera
  2. Piccininni
  3. Lee
  4. Glory
  5. Vito
  6. Bresser
  7. Mueller
  8. Russell