2019 NCAA Tournament Preview + Predictions: 133 Pounds
2019 NCAA Tournament Preview + Predictions: 133 Pounds
Previewing the 2019 NCAA Wrestling Championship at 133 pounds and making predictions for all eight All-American spots.
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The culmination of another glorious season of collegiate wrestling is nearly here. Time for us to traipse through the weight classes and break down the brackets in exquisite detail.
Nomad ably took care of the lightest division. Now, we shall trade my blogging slacks for a pair of analyst dungarees and get down to the nitty-gritty of 133-pounds.
Title Contenders
#1 Daton Fix
#2 Stevan Micic
#3 Nick Suriano
#4 Micky Phillippi
#5 Luke Pletcher
#6 Ethan Lizak
#7 Austin DeSanto
All-American Threats
#8 John Erneste
#9 Chas Tucker
#10 Roman Bravo-Young
#11 Tariq Wilson
#12 Montorie Bridges
#13 Austin Gomez
As you'll notice, 133-pounds is absurdly stacked. The die was cast for this to be a killer weight class when not one, but two NCAA runners-up decided to bump up a weight class. Nick Suriano lost just twice in two years at 125, although injuries forced him to forfeit matches in both seasons. Ethan Lizak always shows up in March, placing second and fourth in the last two NCAA tournaments down at 125.
But it wasn't just Suriano and Lizak moving up, it was also Big 12 studs Daton Fix and Austin Gomez coming off redshirt and Roman-Bravo-Young starting right out of the gate for the Nittany Lions. What's more, it's Micky Phillippi also coming off a redshirt season and helping establish the Pitt Panthers are a force to once again be reckoned with.
Now add a plethora of All-Americans and top tier talent returning and you've got a recipe for a mouthwatering bloodbath of a bracket. There will be no easy paths to the championship. There will hardly be an easy path to the round of 16.
John Smith called it the toughest weight class he's ever seen, and who are we are argue with Coach Smith?
"The deepest I've ever seen any weight...ever...in my coaching career."
— FloWrestling (@FloWrestling) February 26, 2019
The ? knows how tough 133 is. pic.twitter.com/lgUuWihrDA
But before we get to those, let's mention a few potential dark horses who may not have gotten as many headlines as the guys listed above, but could be a trap for anyone foolish enough to overlook them.
Landmines
Noah Gonser
Gary Wayne Harding
Codi Russell
Gonser will be wearing a Campbell Camel singlet but he'll also be representing the departed Eastern Michigan program that was foolishly shuttered by a blundering, shortsighted administration. Gonser made the Midlands finals and has a win over Montorie Bridges on his resume.
A guy with two wins over Noah Gonser, and a legitimate beef with the seeds (and our rankings if we're being honest) is SoCon champ Codi Russell.
Another name to make note of is Big Game Gary Wayne Harding. Harding has been flourishing at North Carolina after transferring from Oklahoma State for his senior campaign.
Finally, like Nomad said, we also intend no disrespect if I leave anyone out of this preview or don't pick someone to place. Indeed, I am thrilled to provide any extra motivation any competitors use to reach their goals, and will be happy to take partial credit for any achievements that benefited from both my explicit and implied doubts.
Session I
Matches to Watch:
Sean Nickell vs Matt Schmitt
DJ Fehlman vs Chas Tucker
Josh Terao vs Korbin Myers
Anthony Cefolo vs Ethan Lizak
Mario Guillen vs Roman Bravo-Young
You really can't go wrong with this bracket. There are going to be fire matches from first whistle on through the finals. While all the top seeds will be on the mat in this round (that is how the first rounds work), there still are going to be some hidden gems among the not quite marquee names as well.
Nickell vs Schmitt is a rematch from a January dual meet that saw Nickell prevail 2-1. Schmitt will be looking for revenge in his first NCAA tournament, while Nickell will try to advance to the top eight in his third and final tournament.
Fehlman and Tucker will be another rematch. Tucker won in the dual meet 7-5 in sudden victory, which for Tucker counts as a high scoring match. Tucker is an EIWA champ on a 14 match win streak. Fehlman is an EWL champ (the last 133-pound EWL champ) and hasn't lost since his match with Tucker. Someone's streak will end Thursday morning.
It took Josh Terao a little while to get going, but the Flyin Hawaiin has been wrestling well as of late. Myers has been more up and down this season, but he has big match potential, having beaten the #4 seed Micky Phillippi in a dual meet.
Another wrestler with upset potential is Anthony Cefelo, who notched a win over the #13 seed Austin Gomez. Ethan Lizak, who sometimes struggles with opening round matches at tournaments, will be tested early.
Guillen and RBY have a mere seven losses between them. RBY will be the favorite, but that is no walkover in the opening round for the Nittany Lion.
Session II
Matches to Watch:
Luke Pletcher vs Montorie Bridges
Austin Gomez vs Micky Phillippi
Tariq Wilson vs Ethan Lizak
Austin DeSanto vs Roman Bravo-Young
We're assuming all chalk in the first two rounds, but that doesn't mean we aren't going to get fire on Thursday night, which will be on ESPN by the way, if that kind of thing is important to you (winking emoji).
Pletcher took out Bridges at the CKLV, but November was a rough month for Bridges. Once January 2019 rolled out, Montorie has been lights out, winning 12 matches in a row before getting stopped by Daton Fix in the Big 12 finals. Pletcher has also been wrestling well, making the finals of his respective conference tournament. Whoever emerges the victor will have a full head of steam going into the quarters on Friday morning.
The winner of Pletcher Bridges will get the winner of Gomez Phillippi (again, assuming chalk plays out). This is a great contrast of styles, as the lankier, funkier Phillippi could frustrate the powerful and explosive Gomez. Gomez is also must-see TV (or must-see stream, if you have your ESPN3 account working), because of his ability to come back from seemingly any deficit.
Gomez was down 9-2 in the second to Ty Smith of Drexel in the Southern Scuffle before peeling off seven consecutive takedowns to eventually win 16-15.
Watch Gomez put on a catch-and-release clinic in the video below:
Tariq Wilson made a name for himself at the 2018 NCAAs, with a Cinderella run to the semifinals and ultimately a third-place finish. Unfortunately, Wilson was hampered by injuries most of the season, so we probably haven't seen the redshirt-sophomore at full strength. He'll need to be close to it though when he wrestles Backpack Lizak, a competitor who always shows up in March.
DeSanto RBY would be just another rematch. It was all DeSanto at Big Tens, as RBY couldn't match the famed DeSanto pace in the first two periods. You can beat Coach Sanderson and company will have a new gameplan for round two.
Session III
Matches to Watch:
Luke Pletcher vs Micky Phillippi
Austin DeSanto vs Stevan Micic
Ben Thornton vs Roman Bravo-Young (consi)
Austin Gomez vs Montorie Bridges (consi)
The tournament really gets cooking on Day 2. The championships bracket has been halved twice, whittling the title-contenders down to 16. Nine wrestlers will have had their season ended the day before, with eight more still alive for All-American honors.
Pick any of the eight matches on championship side and it's going to be rad. Unfortunately, there's no way for a human brain to process eight rad wrestling matches simultaneously (I've live-blogged the last two NCAA tournaments so I know this fact all too well), but if you had to only pick one, I think DeSanto Micic is the obvious choice.
You all remember what happened last time Micic wrestled DeSanto at the NCAA tournament, yes? And before that at the CKLV? No need to rehash that scene I don't think. But anyway, yeah, DeSanto Micic Part III could totally be a thing Friday morning. Get your gifs of people eating popcorn ready.
Another scintillating round of 16 matchup we could see is a rematch of Pletchdawg and Phillippi. It was Phillippi who prevailed at CKLV, which turned into the redshirt freshman's coming out party. It was a tight 2-1 victory, though, and Pletcher looked outstanding at the Big Ten Tournament, so consider this a true toss up.
Watch Phillippi Pletcher from the 2018 CKLV below:
The consolation bracket also gets heated up Friday morning. If things progress according to seed, then RBY could get a shot at revenge on Ben Thornton. Bravo-Young performed an ill-advised Kolat-style backflip while Thornton had one of his legs in the air. RBY needed injury time and Thornton claimed the win, however, RBY showed no lasting damage from the injury at Big Tens last week.
And once again, the dynamic Austin Gomez gets one of his potential matches highlighted. Gomez will have to come up with something new to get by Bridges, who beat him 6-3 at Big 12s.
Session IV
Matches to Watch:
Daton Fix vs Micky Phillippi
Nick Suriano vs Stevan Micic
Austin DeSanto vs Austin Gomez (consi)
Roman Bravo-Young vs Like Pletcher (consi)
Luke Pletcher vs Tariq Wilson (consi)
Chas Tucker vs Ethan Lizak (consi)
Friday evening is everyone's favorite session, and for good reason, it's where hopes and dreams are either realized or brutally crushed. For the semifinalists, a finals birth and the bright lights of prime time cable TV is on the line. For those in the blood round, the fine line between All-American and did-not-place is determined.
We've filled out all chalk in our bracket so far, but Session IV is where things get really interesting. Daton Fix's sole collegiate blemish was in a dual meet in Pittsburgh with Micky Phillippi. Fix has wrestled several tight matches this season but only Phillippi has been able to get his hand raised at the end. Can Phillippi make it two for two? We going with Fix to avenge that loss, but we very much doubt it will be a blowout.
In the other semi, we think it will be Suriano avenging his loss to Micic. The Serbian Sickle medical forfeited out of the Big Ten Tournament after the semis, and while we've gotten no word about the severity of Micic's injury, with the way the newly minted Big Ten champ has been wrestling, even being just a little bit less than 100% is enough to swing our prediction in favor of Suriano.
Watch (and listen) to Suriano wrestle Micic with coach Donnie Pritzlaff mic'd up:
The consolation round will be equally spectacular. I included all of them, but of course, there is a good chance that none of them will happen, as all sorts of chaos could have ensued by this point. Should things play out that way, however, we think it will be Pletcher over RBY (again), Wilson finding his groove against a very tough Erneste, DeSanto avenging his loss to Gomez, and Lizak going on his typical postseason tear over Tucker.
Session V
Matches to Watch:
Ethan Lizak vs Luke Pletcher
Tariq Wilson vs Austin DeSanto
Micky Phillippi vs Stevan Micic
Saturday morning is hangover day for most of the NCAA crowd, although this year St. Patrick's Day weekend does not fall during the tournament. But for those of us able to soldier through the pangs of an early morning after a late night, the reward of the best-kept secret of the NCAA Championships awaits.
Predicting these matches is a fool's errand, as the probability that they will pan out exactly as we guess is vanishingly small. But prognostication is part of our profession, and so we will make the picks regardless of their propensity to be impeccable.
For third place, we've got Lizak doing Lizak things. His frame and top game is a horrible matchup for Pletcher, who we suspect will wrestle his heart out anyway, as Pletcher always wrestles that way.
For fifth, we're taking Phillippi and predicting a semi-slide for Micic. If we're wrong about Micic, and he shrugs off his injury and wins the dang thing, he would not be the first 133-pounder to make a mockery of our NCAA picks.
In the seventh-place match, how about the fire combo of Tariq Wilson and Austin DeSanto? We're picking DeSanto, but don't count out the Hawkeye from placing even higher, as he does have wins over Suriano and Lizak this season.
Session VI
Daton Fix vs Nick Suriano
Maybe its wishful thinking, but it feels like these two are fated to meet in the finals in Pittsburgh. From their 30 minute match at Who's #1 in 2014 to their marathon match just a couple months ago, no other two athletes have loomed over this weight class all year, regardless of what either of their rankings may have been (Flo's Instagram page notwithstanding).
Hear Coach Goodale mic'd up for Suriano and Fix epic match in Piscataway:
We couldn't tell you anything about this match that Mike Mal couldn't, so why not take the time to watch his preview and recap, complete with fancy-schmancy telestration.
Regardless of the outcome, we know it's going to be a war, and that both Suriano and Fix thrive in big matches. Suriano came out of a crazy Big Ten bracket bloodied and bruised but looking as sharp as ever. If he can get through Fix's defenses, he might be able to power his way to a title with singles and doubles.
The problem is, Fix defenses are insanely good, and he has one of the most varied arsenals in the sport. His shrugs and inside trips are both so good that it's nearly impossible to stop both if Fix is firing on all cylinders.
This was one of the hardest picks to make, but we're going with the Oklahoma Jumpman to win the title, although we can't say we're incredibly confident about it.
One prediction we feel safe in making, however, is that this weight class is going to extremely rad, and ridiculously fun to watch.
Spey's Spredictions
- Fix
- Suriano
- Lizak
- Pletcher
- Phillippi
- Micic
- DeSanto
- Wilson
For our entire bracket, please see below.
My bracket for 133. pic.twitter.com/y3esrYZtau
— Jaroslav Hašek (@SpeyWrestle) March 14, 2019
Apologies for being boring and picking so much chalk. On the bright side, Micic placing sixth has great potential for blowing up in our face. We can also see how odd it looks for Micic to be good enough to beat DeSanto but not Suriano, Pletcher or Phillippi. But we figured if anything is going to wear a guy down, not just Micic but anyone, it would be back-to-back matches against DeSanto and Suriano.
Also we had to do something to break up all that chalk!