2019 NCAA Tournament Preview + Predictions: 149 Pounds
2019 NCAA Tournament Preview + Predictions: 149 Pounds
Previewing the 2019 NCAA Wrestling Championship at 149 pounds and making predictions for all eight All-American spots.
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As the great Canadian poet Shania Twain once said, "Looks like we made it. Look how far we've come." And folks, we are here to tell you that we have indeed made it to the 2019 NCAA Championships. The regular season and conference weekend are over. Time to have some fun.
My blogging duties have been temporarily put on hiatus while my preview responsibilities are attended to. There's a lot of possibilities for how 149 shakes out in Pittsburgh, but with no returning national champs in the field, whoever climbs to the top of the NCAA podium steps while be doing so for the first time in their lives.
Title Contenders
#1 Anthony Ashnault
#2 Micah Jordan
#3 Mitch Finesilver
#4 Brock Mauller
#5 Matt Kolodzik
#6 Austin O'Connor
#7 Kaden Gfeller
All-American Threats
#8 Jarrett Degen
#9 Justin Oliver
#10 Pat Lugo
#11 Josh Heil
#12 Brady Berge
#13 Anthony Artalona
#14 Requir van der Merwe
#15 Max Thomsen
Given the choice of being inclusive or exclusive when considering title and AA contenders, we decided to make this a big tent preview. We included as many wrestlers in both categories as we thought prudent.
Ashnault is the clear No. 1 and he's beaten Micah Jordan, the clear No. 2, twice this year in uncontroversial fashion. But we were not going to have a title contender list consisting of one name. Kaden Gfeller has proven he can hang with the best 149'ers, pushing Ashnault and Finesilver to the brink. So we do not apologize for including him and all those seeded better in the title contender tier with Ashnault, et al.
With as deep as 149 has been, there's an argument to be made that the top 15 seeds is not enough names. We rather arbitrarily drew the line at Thomsen, a past All-American who beat Alec Pantaleo when the Wolverine two-time All-American was down at 149 at Midlands.
Tommy Thorn is another All-American who only managed a No. 20 seed. With a fifth-place finish and a win over No. 19 seed Cole Martin, we could very much see Thorn on the podium once again.
But a line had to be drawn somewhere. And so we reiterate that absolutely zero disrespect is intended with any of our predictions. Although if a wrestler we didn't pick does outperform our prediction, we reserve the right to take credit for the inspiration.
Landmines
Jared Prince
Henry Pohlmeyer
Parker Kropman
Before we walk through the brackets session by session, a few dark horses who could disrupt the roadmap laid out by the seeding committee.
Navy's indefatigable Jared Prince epitomizes the military ethos with his relentless attacks and unstoppable motor. Prince put that motor to work against Matt Kolodzik in the EIWA semifinals, hitting two reversals and then shooting him out of bounds for a go-ahead stall point in the third.
Watch Prince and Kolodzik in Binghamton below:
Henry Pohlmeyer of South Dakota State was in and out of the top 20 all year long, but picked up a big win at Big 12s, knocking off the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament, Max Thomsen. Like Prince, Parker Kropman of Drexel can also boast of a win over a two-time All-American, picking up a 2-1 victory over Kolodzik in a dual meet at the end of February.
Session I
Matches to Watch:
Tanner Smith vs. Malik Amine (pigtail)
Justin Oliver vs. Cortlandt Schuyler
Russell Rohlfing vs. Jarrett Degen
Khristian Olivas vs. Brady Berge
Anthony Artalona vs. Tommy Thorn
Cole Martin vs. Requir van der Merwe
Josh Heil vs. Henry Pohlmeyer
This weight class has grown on us like kudzu, wrapping its tendrils around us tighter as the season wore on and the depth of the weight class became more apparent. We like this weight class so much we listed the pigtail match as one to watch!
Before any of the top seeds take the mat, a round of pigtails will occupy the eight squares laid down on the floor of the PPG Paints Arena. Most of the 32 vs. 33 seeds will be of little consequence (although Joe Smith will be in the pigtail match at 165, more on him a bit later), but Tanner Smith and Malik Amine are both far more competitive then their records would suggest.
Smith has been hampered by injuries but has multiple wins over national qualifiers in his career. Amine comes from one arguably of the deepest weights in unarguably the deepest conference. Managing an 11-7 record against Amine's schedule is impressive.
In regular round-of-32 action, Justin Oliver, who placed seventh as a freshman and finished in the blood round the next two years, is the No. 9 seed but will be tested early by the unpredictable but dangerous Cortlandt Schuyler.
The higher-seeded Rohlfing has beaten the lower-seeded Degen once this year at the Southern Scuffle. He also has a win over the No. 10 seed Pat Lugo. He'll need to regain the form to beat Degen again Thursday morning.
Watch Rohlfing upset Lugo at the Frenzy at the Fieldhouse:
It's been rumored that Brady Berge's cut to 149 is difficult, as evidenced by his teammate Jarod Verkleeren getting a decent amount starts at 149 this season for the Nittany Lions. Khristian Olivas is a tough first bout if Berge is still recovering from a hard pull down to scratch weight.
True freshman Anthony Artalona also has a tough opening-round match against redshirt senior and All-American Tommy Thorn. Cole Martin and Requir van der Merwe both spent most of the year in the top 20 and definitely did not get the attention they deserved.
Finally, Josh Heil has also been under the radar but consistent and consistently ranked. His opponent Henry Pohlmeyer is not to be overlooked (but really, no one in the weight class is).
Session II
Matches to Watch:
Matt Kolodzik vs. Brady Berge
Anthony Artalona vs. Brock Mauller
Kaden Gfeller vs. Pat Lugo
Thursday night begins the heartbreak in Pittsburgh, as nine wrestlers will have their seasons (or in many cases, collegiate careers), ended. It's also the halfway mark to All-American status. Win in the round of 16, and you're in the quarters, one win away from guaranteed placement. A loss in the quarters sends you to the blood round, where it's another win-and-place bout.
Every match in Pittsburgh is critical, but the second session is when the urgency begins to sink in.
Given Kolod-zilla's recent struggles—two of his three losses on the season have come in the last two competitions of the season—Brady Berge will be a trendy upset pick. We're sticking with chalk, but there is a very real chance last year's third-place finisher gets sent to the consolation bracket earlier than expected.
Artalona and Mauller will be a battle of true freshman phenoms. Mauller's been ranked higher all year, but Artalona has not been far behind. We've also got a great clash of styles in the positionally sound, low scoring Artalona with the funky and free-flowing Mauller.
Lugo got the better of Gfeller in the Dual of the Century of the Year, but Gfeller did not look as sharp in that match as he has in previous matches. If we buzzsaw Gfeller, like we did in the Southern Scuffle finals, Lugo is going to have a tougher time advancing to the quarters.
Watch G win his second Scuffle title over the No. 3 seed Mitch Finesilver:
Session III
Matches to Watch:
Matt Kolodzik vs. Brock Mauller
Mitch Finesilver vs. Austin O'Connor
Josh Heil vs. Tommy Thorn (consi)
Anthony Artalona vs. Brady Berge (consi)
As the great Rebecca Black was known to exclaim: It's Friday! The field is reduced to a mere dozen by the end of this session, with only four still eligible for an individual championship.
You can't go wrong with any of the quarterfinal bouts, whether chalk prevails, as we have predicted, or if there are upsets. One huge bout to look out for is the veteran Matt Kolodzik versus the young Brock "Darth" Mauller. Mauller has the better name, but Kolodzik has the experience, and if he's able to slow Mauller down, we think Kolo can right the ship and make it to his second-consecutive NCAA semifinals.
Mitch Finesilver and Austin O'Connor have wrestled each other four times already this year. Finesilver won at the Hokie Open last November, in the dual a few weeks ago, and in the finals of the ACC Championship. O'Connor did get to taste victory once, though, in the consolation semis of the CKLV.
You can watch the O'Connor victory from the CKLV (the only one of their matches that FloWrestling has the media rights to) in the video below:
There are two consolation rounds Friday morning. They get much trickier to predict, but if you see a matchup like Tommy Thorn and Josh Heil, do make sure to tune in. We're also penciling in a fire matchup between Artalona and Berge. We have Berge advancing, but Artalona is also the type of guy who could go on a Cinderella run to a high AA placement.
Session IV
Matches to Watch:
Anthony Ashanult vs. Matt Kolodzik
Mitch Finesilver vs. Micah Jordan
Kaden Gfeller vs. Brock Mauller (consi)
Josh Heil vs. Jarrett Degen (consi)
Brady Berge vs. Pat Lugo (consi)
Justin Oliver vs. Austin O'Connor (consi)
Everyone's favorite: the dog-bone formation. People love the dog-bone formation. They go wild for it. Two mats for the semifinals in the middle, two sets of two mats on either end for the blood round matches. For the wrestling junkies, it's pure unadulterated bliss.
Ashnault and Kolodzik are familiar foes. They've met five times in the past, with Ashnault holding the 3-2 edge in the collegiate series. The two rivals first met in the 2015 Midlands for a pair of bouts. Kolo won on the top side, then Ash got revenge in the consi semis. They'd meet two more times in the 2016-17 season. Once again, Kolo won the first meeting, in an outdoor dual in Rutgers' football stadium, but it was Ashnault in the next and more important match, winning in the 2017 NCAA quarterfinals.
Ashnault sat out the next season on a medical redshirt, but they were both back in action last fall. They collided yet again in a dual meet in Piscataway, where Ashnault left no doubt, winning 10-2. We predict the No. 1 seed Ashnault will remain perfect, advancing to the finals for the first time in his career.
Watch Ashnault and Kolodzik part V in the video below:
On the other side of the bracket, it's MiJo (not at all his nickname, just something we're typing to save time) and Finesilver. Of the four Finesilver brothers in the NCAA Tournament, Mitch is having the best season, and has earned the highest seed for a Duke Blue Devil in recent memory. But Jordan has established himself as the clear No. 2 in the division, having only lost to Ashnault this season. We think Jordan takes this one and advances to the first final in his career, same as his potential opponent.
Then in the blood round, which is the most important consolation round in all of sports, in our humble opinion, expect heaps of blood, sweat and tears, and an incalculable amount of emotion left on the mat. We've got Mauller, Heil, Berge and O'Connor moving on the final eight, but as with so many other matchups in this weight class, we do not make those picks with an abundance of conviction.
Could Gfeller smash his way through Mauller? Of course. Might Degen stymie Heil with his praying-mantis-like frame? It's possible. Is a second straight win by Berge over Lugo a foregone conclusion? Definitely not. Is there a chance Oliver squeaks by the dynamic AOC? We should say so.
In other words, we're hedging our bets. But the picks need to be made, so there we are.
Session V
Matches to Watch:
Mitch Finesilver vs. Matt Kolodzik (3rd)
Brock Mauller vs. Austin O'Connor (5th)
Josh Heil vs. Brady Berge (7th)
The best-kept secret in NCAA wrestling should not disappoint at 149. Kolodzik has wrestled two Finesilvers in his career, but never Mitch. We have Mitch taking third in this battle of the brainiacs, but we'd be perfectly happy with Kolodzik proving us wrong and repeating his third-place performance from 2018.
A Mauller versus O'Connor bout would be an excellent showcase for the future of this weight class. Sophomore Josh Heil would be just the second Campbell Camel to earn All-American status if he makes it this far (the first being Nathan Kraisser in 2017). Brady Berge, on the other hand, would definitely not be the first Nittany Lion to reach the NCAA podium.
Session VI
Anthony Ashnault vs. Micah Jordan
We've seen this one before. Twice in fact. In the CKLV finals and in the finals of the Big Ten Championships, both of which were likely the two toughest tournaments of the year, outside the NCAAs.
In round one, it was all Ashnault, at least for the first two periods. A takedown followed by a trapped, bent leg and claw, followed by a two-on-one roll through tilt, gave Ashanult a big 10-0 lead in the first. Jordan battled back in the third period, pouring on four takedowns against an increasingly disinterested Ashnault to make the final a respectable 14-10.
Ashnault won round two as well. The first period of the Big Ten finals was scoreless, but things opened up in the second. Jordan wisely chose neutral, but it was Ashnault who got the key takedown and rideout in short time. Then in the third, an escape gave Ashnault a three-point lead.
Two takedowns from Jordan knotted things up, but a clutch reversal from Ashnault put Ashnault back in command. A takedown in the final 10 seconds iced it for the New Jerseyan.
Ashnault has now thwarted Jordan twice, and at all phases of the game. Which is not to say that Jordan won't be able to solve Ashnault in round three, just that we won't be making that prediction. Instead, we're picking Ashnault to cap off a legendary career at Rutgers.
A title from Anthony would be the first in Rutgers program history. Furthermore, any All-American finish would make Ashnault the first four-time AA for Coach Goodale and the Rutgers program. The first three-time AA for the Scarlet Knights? Also Anthony Ashnault.
Spey's Spredictions
- Ashnault
- Jordan
- Finesilver
- Kolodzik
- O'Connor
- Mauller
- Heil
- Berge
For our entire bracket, please see below.
My 149 pound bracket. Please share yours with me. Thank you. pic.twitter.com/UAB97MHRHo
— Jaroslav Hašek (@SpeyWrestle) March 16, 2019
Apologies for the chalk and for any picks you disagree with. Six more weights to go!