2019 NCAA Championships

2019 NCAA Tournament Preview + Predictions: 157 Pounds

2019 NCAA Tournament Preview + Predictions: 157 Pounds

A comprehensive preview of the 2019 NCAA tournament at 157 pounds, complete with predictions

Mar 16, 2019 by Wrestling Nomad
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We've come to the halfway point of the 100-mile ultra marathon that is previewing the NCAA tournament. But as wrestlers, we all love the grueling pain of agonizing over every bracket, poring through results, and making a pick for all 640 matches.

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We've come to the halfway point of the 100-mile ultra marathon that is previewing the NCAA tournament. But as wrestlers, we all love the grueling pain of agonizing over every bracket, poring through results, and making a pick for all 640 matches.

The first four weights are all pretty wide open at the top, in terms of who can win the title. But at 157, the tournament might be a bit anticlimactic with one of the most dominant forces we've ever in Jason Nolf favored to win his third crown. That might prevent us from appreciating Nolf's greatness in real time.

What is legacy? The line that opened the "My Name is Jordan" FloFlim is what comes to mind every time I think of Jason Nolf. Back in October I got a big nostalgic in my 157lb season preview, saying the following about the senior: 

There are certain athletes in any given sport that are appointment viewing. Fans tune in to watch their spectacular goals, or crisp passing, or mind boggling feats of athleticism. Nolf's reached that point in the wrestling community, someone who seems to be making up moves as he goes along, but is really just pushing the sport into new realms. Maybe it's the reminder that injuries can derail careers, but if I were you, I'd make sure to watch every time Nolf takes the mat this year.

Nolf's stats jump off the page: 72 team points in just three national tournaments, and 59 career falls. If he hits his average and scores 24 team points in Pittsburgh, he'll be #7 on the all-time list, and at 27 points he moves into a tie with David Taylor for fifth. Over half of his college matches have ended in pins. He's also put up bonus in 87% of his matches, and should hit 100 career bonus point wins on Thursday.

He's currently 112-3 in his career, with one massive asterisk coming in the form of the John Van Brill injury default loss. So his only losses are to a four-time finalist, two-time champ, and he's on pace to be Top-10 in career points with three titles of his own. That pretty much sews Nolf up as one of the 10 best college wrestlers ever.

Weight Class Previews: 125 | 133 | 141 | 149

Beyond Nolf, there are two seniors from the Big Ten hoping to end their careers in grand fashion: Alec Pantaleo and Tyler Berger. Then there are super sophomores Ryan Deakin and Hayden Hidlay, who met in the U23 World Team Trials finals back in June. The interesting thing for me coming out of NCAAs ties back to this: what legacy will be left behind by the seniors, and who will set themselves up for a national title run next year in Minneapolis?

Title Contenders

#1 Jason Nolf, Penn State

All-American Threats

#2 Tyler Berger, Nebraska

#3 Ryan Deakin, Northwestern

#4 Alec Pantaleo, Michigan

#5 Hayden Hidlay, NC State

#6 Kaleb Young, Iowa

#7 Larry Early, Old Dominion

#8 Josh Humphreys, Lehigh

#9 Christian Pagdilao, Arizona State

#10 Steve Bleise, Minnesota

#14 Zach Hartman, Bucknell

Yes, there is only one title contender. By all means, cause a glitch in the matrix and prove me wrong.

Deakin did not place last year in some part at least due to his draw, so he will have to prove that was not a fluke, just freshman jitters against a couple guys with seven total All-American finishes between them.

The experiment to drop Kaleb Young to 57 has worked out great for Iowa, he is in excellent position to place. Larry Early is finally coming around to the guy many thought he would be coming out of high school, when he was a Top-15 recruit at OPRF. I personally feel the EIWA final I saw last Saturday between Josh Humphreys and Zach Hartman will be one in a series of many battles between two guys who will get on the podium more times than they won't.

Session I

Matches to Watch

John Van Brill vs BC LaPrade

Josh Humphreys vs Justin Ruffin

Jarrett Jacques vs Luke Weiland

Zach Hartman vs Griffin Parriott

Unquestionably my favorite first round match is John Van Brill against BC LaPrade. If you missed it the first time around, they met in a pigtail at CKLV. Van Brill only needed a takedown late down 2-1, but instead went with double overs and pinned LaPrade with one second left. It was absurd, watch it below.

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A year after meeting in the Super 32 quarterfinals, true freshmen Josh Humphreys of Lehigh and Justin Ruffin of SIU Edwardsville will see each other Thursday morning. After giving up a first period takedown, Humphreys got a reversal to end the first period tied. A second period escape and third period rideout gave Humphreys the 3-2 win.

Jacques has had an excellent true freshman season but Weiland is a returning national qualifier who went 2-2 last year. You already can tell from above I think very highly of Hartman, who spent a good portion of the year hovering around the 10-spot. But Parriott, much like Early, is a  former blue chipper who showed flashes of brilliance in making the CKLV finals.

Session II

Thursday night is where the wheat starts to separate from the chaff. That starts at the top with the 8/9 match between Josh Humphreys and Christian Pagdilao. A 6-1 loss befell Pagdilao in the dual, but this is the Sun Devil's last crack at the national tournament and Humphreys is a true freshman. I like the Mountain Hawk to be an AA, but we've seen bigger disparities be replaced by age and determination in March.

Steve Bleise and Larry Early spent one season both in the MAC, but did not meet. Early, formerly of Minnesota, and Bleise, now a Gopher but once at Northern Illinois, should meet in the second round to earn a spot against Tyler Berger in the quarters. Early's best win is over Hadyen Hidlay, while Bleise's is over Ryan Deakin. So when in doubt, go with the guy who did this with a broken hand.

I probably shouldn't be making a thing out of a guy who finished second at PIAAs against a guy who finished second in the world, but am I crazy to think Zach Hartman vs Ryan Deakin is going to be a match? Guys don't like going under Hartman, a lot of people choose neutral against him, and his cradle is vicious. Deakin's leg attacks should negate that, but Hartman is way too dangerous of a pinner to count out entirely.

Hayden Hidlay is 5-0 against Taleb Rahmani, the first one being a major and the last one being a six point decision. But all the others were one takedown matches, which we frequently overrate as being closer than they are. Anyway, it's not easy to beat a guy six times in a row and it's in Pittsburgh, so all I'm saying is I'm keeping an eye on it.

Session III

Nolf over Humphreys

Hidlay over Pantaleo

Deakin over Young

Berger over Bleise

Josh Humphreys fought Jason Nolf tough for over five minutes, keeping it within a decision. And then the flip switched. Nolf hit him with a hard snapdown, a vicious Winn Dixie, and then faked cutting him only to slap on a vicious cradle. It's worth another watch.

The Hidlay major over Pantaleo in the NCAA semis was a bit misleading given the nature of the six-point move. After also watching their freestyle match from the U.S. Open though, it appears to just be a bad style matchup for Pantaleo, much like the Wolverine is a bad style matchup for Tyler Berger. The Michigan senior can get the first takedown, he just needs to find a way to hold onto that lead.

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How about a Midlands final rematch in the NCAA quarters? Sounds good to me. Another match where the score may be misleading, Deakin rode Young like a dog and took him down twice, although both were extended finishes that took some time to complete. It's kind of strange to think that these were three weight classes apart last year, but Deakin should earn his first AA placement with a comfortable decision.

Berger likely made adjustments from the sudden victory win in the dual to the 6-3 win in the Big Ten semis over Bleise. It seems destined that Berger and Nolf should meet once again, they have history going back to high school, but if Bleise can stop one or two of those shots and convert a re-attack of his own, this one has upset potential.

Session IV

Nolf 12-3 over Hidlay

Berger 4-3 over Deakin

A less than 100% Nolf beat Hidlay 6-2 in the NCAA finals, scoring twice on his left leg and earning riding time. It's hard to see a fully capable Nolf not at least doubling that score, especially as the Nittany Lions will be looking to lock up the team race. I also see him looking to be a bit more aggressive on top in this match, if possible. According to the fantastic stats of LemonPie, Nolf has 26.8% of his points this season from nearfall, and scored them in 22 of his 26 bouts. The ones where he didn't? Both matches against Berger, the Big Ten semis against Pantaleo, and Gary Dinmore back at the Keystone Classic.

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The Nebraska coaching staff clearly placed an increased emphasis on preparing for Deakin's attacks on Berger's right leg. In the U23 semis, Deakin picked Berger apart with a swing single. But in the dual in January, Berger did a much bette job downblocking, tying up Deakin's wrists, and timing his sprawl. In turn though, Deakin did not let Berger finish any shot quickly, so it's possible the Northwestern staff picks up the go behind work. However, I think Berger, who has previous finishes of fifth and third, continues his success at NCAAs.

Bloodround picks: Pantaleo over Early, Humphreys over Hartman, Bleise over Jacques, Young over Laprade.

Session V

Alec Pantaleo has wrestled Ryan Deakin four times, twice in freestyle and twice in folkstyle. Back in the spring, the senior won 13-5 in the U.S. Open consi semis and 5-0 in the WTT challenge tournament third place match. Late in the season, Deakin picked up an 11-9 win in the dual, but Pantaleo avenged it win a 10-4 win in the Big Ten consi semis. So apparently these two are destined to wrestle in consi semis matches, and I'm calling for history to repeat itself for the Michigan Man.

Coming back to a point I made near the top, the seniors and sophomores dominate this bracket. Moving Steve Bleise up to 157 was clearly a wise move for his senior year, but he's 0-2 against Kaleb Young of Iowa. The first one had an epic ending, and the second was Young scoring off Bleise's offense. I think that Bleise steals one to set up a match with Hayden Hidlay, but won't be able to pull off a similar upset against NC State.

Young has been one of the more underrated guys in the country, which I suppose makes sense since it's a little easier to fly under the radar in a weight like 157. He's the six seed and has twice beaten Bleise, so he could end up in the sixth place match, but somehow I came up with a bracket featuring Young and Humphreys, another guy who beat Bleise, wrestling for seventh. I've talked quite a bit about Humphreys in this preview, and it's possible he loses to Hartman in the Round of 12. He's probably better now than he was in December, but this seventh place match probably goes down similar to Young's win in the dual.

The fifth place match is between two familiar foes, Steve Bleise and Ryan Deakin. They met three times as 149 pounders and three times this year, with Deakin leading the series 4-2 overall. Both times Bleise won have featured some odd penalty points or circumstances, which is hard to replicate. Deakin's wins have been more dominant, so that's the pick. Which means heading into the 2019-20 season it will be Hidlay and Deakin atop the rankings.

Speaking of Hidlay, Pantaleo gets one last crack at the Wolfpack sophomore. It's always fun getting to wrestle someone twice in one tournament, and in this case, the first time is to become an All-American and the second is the final match of someone's college career. If there's a time he's going to beat Hidlay, it's now. But I'm not picking it that way.

Session VI

Nolf 15-5 over Berger

Here are the scores of the five matches these two have wrestled in college, ending with the most recent: 19-3, 15-7, 13-5, 10-4, and 12-4. Nolf's outscored Berger by a 3:1 margin in their careers, with most of those points coming on their feet. The Nittany Lion has scored 24 takedowns against Berger and only given up two. Nolf has only turned Berger twice, and those came in their first two matches against each other. With all that in mind, I think Nolf picks up six takedowns, an escape, a point for stalling, and riding time. A dominant end to one of the most incredible college careers we've ever seen.


Nomad's AA Picks

  1. Nolf
  2. Berger
  3. Hidlay
  4. Pantaleo
  5. Deakin
  6. Bleise
  7. Young
  8. Humphreys