2019 NCAA Tournament Preview + Predictions: 165 Pounds
2019 NCAA Tournament Preview + Predictions: 165 Pounds
Previewing the 2019 NCAA Wrestling Championship at 165 pounds and making predictions for all eight All-American spots.
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The NCAA Championship is coming to Pittsburgh, bringing 330 of the raddest and baddest dudes on the planet to Steel City. To prepare for the most fantastic three days on the calendar, we've written these previews for you, the savviest and most intelligent sports fans on Planet Earth.
Previews: 125 | *133* | 141 | *149* | 157
Like the celebrated bulls of Pamplona, the 165-pound weight class will be thundering into Pittsburgh like a herd of angry steer. Leading the charge is the top bovine himself, the undefeated Alex Marinelli.
A title for the Bull won't come easy, however, especially not with Vincenzo Joseph, the two-time reigning champ in the field.
So let us suspend our blogging activities and don our prognosticator's cap as we dig into all the nooks and crannies of the 165-pound NCAA championship bracket.
Title Contenders
#1 Alex Marinelli
#2 Vincenzo Joseph
All-American Threats
#3 Josh Shields
#4 Evan Wick
#5 Chance Marsteller
#6 Logan Massa
#7 Isaiah White
#8 Mekhi Lewis
#9 Demetrius Romero
#10 Branson Ashworth
#11 Bryce Steiert
#12 Ebed Jarrell
#13 Andrew Fogarty
#33 Joseph Smith
There is a tremendous amount of talent at the top of this weight class, but two names stood out from the rest all season long, those being Alex Marinelli and Vincenzo Joseph.
Cenzo and Marinelli remained undefeated this season up until their epic Big Ten finals bout a couple of weeks ago in Minneapolis. They've also both had their fair share of close bouts this season, so it's not unthinkable that another challenger from the field wrestles on Saturday night.
However, if Vegas were price out odds to win this division, Marinelli and Joseph would be the frontrunners, with no disrespect intended to anyone else in the bracket.
Hey, speaking of NCAA betting odds...
Oh snap! NCAA odds are out. Tweet me your favorite plays. I'll start working on a breakdown shortly. https://t.co/pqTzcr9fm6
— Willie Saylor (@WillieAtFLO) March 16, 2019
Wick, Marsteller, Massa and White have all given either Cenzo or Marinelli (or both) a run for their money this season. So if you wanted to include them in the title contenders category, we would not protest.
Watch Joseph outlast Marsteller in the Southern Scuffle finals:
Shields lost soundly to both Marinelli and Joseph, but has racked up some impressive wins and has but one other loss on the season, to fellow contender Evan Wick. That head-to-head victory would have probably locked up the No. 3 seed for Wick, had he not lost to Logan Massa in the Big Ten Championship's third-place bout.
Mekhi Lewis is one of the few wrestlers who can claim to have beaten Marinelli in a match in the last calendar year. Though that victory came in freestyle, it nonetheless bolsters Lewis' contender credentials.
Romero, Ashworth, Fogarty, Steiert and Smith form a studly quintet of Big 12 contenders. They are all seeded close together because little separates them talent-wise. The exception being Smith, a two-time All-American who was only seeded 33rd because he wrestled the entire season up to the Big 12 tournament up at 174-pounds and the previously established seeding criteria determined he must receive the lowest seed in the tournament.
Ebed Jarrell's losses at the EIWA to Cael McCormick and Gordon Wolf are tough to square with All-American contender status, but we like Jarrell and he does have a victory over Isaiah White back in November, so we are going to include him on the list regardless.
Land mines
Gordon Wolf
Tanner Skidgel
Te'Shan Campbell
Speaking of the Gordon Wolf of Wall Street (Wolf majored in finance, so we're sure he will never get tired of hearing that joke), if there's a wrestler no one in the field is looking forward to seeing, it's the EIWA third-placer from Lehigh.
Tanner Skidgel won the EIWA, so you know he is dangerous, even if you are unfamiliar with his name. And Te'Shan Campbell had a bumpy season, spending some of it up at 174-pounds, but when he's cut down to 165, he's as lean and mean as anyone in the bracket.
Session I
Matches to Watch:
Joe Smith vs Tyler Moreland vs. Alex Marinelli
Te'Shan Campbell vs. Ebed Jarrell
Andrew Fogarty vs. Tyler Marinelli
Jesse Dellavecchia vs. Tanner Skidgel
Connor Flynn vs. Gordon Wolf
Moreland's record is 6-9 (sorry, had to mention it—we're very mature) but that's coming out of one of the toughest weight classes in bar-none the toughest conference in wrestling. Assuming Joe Smith wins, though, his reward is the No. 1 seed in the country. Before the season started, you could've convinced us that this would be the finals match. Now it will likely take place Saturday morning. NCAA wrestling is wild.
Jarrell will get tested right out of the gate. We will know if those EIWA losses were a fluke or not soon after the first whistle. Tyler Marinelli has just two losses on the year, to Jesse Dellavecchia and Tanner Skidgel, both at the Southern Scuffle.
Dellavecchia, the last EWL 165-pound runner-up ever, will wrestle this year's EIWA's champ, Tanner Skidgel, in a battle of the only two people to beat Tyler Marinelli this season. That is one bizarre coincidence that we literally just stumbled upon accidentally. Kind of creeping us out to be honest.
If Flynn v Wolf doesn't put double digits on the scoreboard, we will eat a corner rug.
Watch Wolf and Jarrell score a combined 24 points in the EIWA third-place bout:
Session II
Matches to Watch:
Alex Marinelli vs. Jon Viruet
Mekhi Lewis vs. Demetrius Romero
Isaiah White vs. Branson Ashworth
165-pounds on Thursday night may not have the fireworks that other divisions will, but the groundwork will be laid for an absolutely killer Friday.
Marinelli and Viruet is one of the most intriguing 1 vs 16 seeded bouts we'll see in Pittsburgh. They've met twice before, both in the quarterfinals of the Midlands. In 2017, Marinelli won 3-2. In 2018, Alex needed sudden victory win.
Watch Marinelli squeak by Viruet in this season's Midlands tournament:
There are two ways to look at Marinelli's draw as the undefeated No. 1 seed.
Option 1 - Glass Half Empty
R32: a two-time All-American
R16: guy who took Alex to sudden victory
QF: guy who beat Alex in freestyle
SF: guy who beat Alex 16-3 in last year's NCAAs
Option 2 - Glass Half Full
R32: took fifth place at Big 12s
R16: took sixth place at EIWAs
QF: guy who lost to Connor Flynn this season (no disrespect to Flynn)
SF: guy Alex beat three times this season
And course it's the same guys in both options: Joe Smith, Jon Viruet, Mekhi Lewis and Evan Wick. So on one hand, it would appear Alex's draw is particularly tough for a No. 1 seed. On the other hand, its nationals, there are no easy paths and everyone at the tournament is good.
Lewis beat Romero a season ago and out-placed him at the CKLV in December, but Romero has been making waves all season, having notched wins over Logan Massa and Joe Smith. He's also representing the dearly departed Boise State wrestling program. Romero had just finished his second year on campus when the shameful Bob Kustra shuttered the program to make way for his unjustifiable pet project of bringing varsity baseball to BSU.
Ashworth has a victory over White from an early dual this season, so it would be tough to call it an upset if history repeats in Pittsburgh.
Session III
Matches to Watch:
Alex Marinelli vs. Mekhi Lewis
Chance Marsteller vs. Evan Wick
Josh Shields vs. Logan Massa
Isaiah White vs. Vincenzo Joseph
Joe Smith vs. Branson Ashworth (consi)
Demetrius Romero vs. Gordon Wolf (consi)
Junior freestyle world gold medalist Mekhi Lewis has sky-high potential, but as of now, Marinelli has the more proven track record in folkstyle.
Evan Wick is a bad matchup for Chance Marsteller, as was shown in Cleveland a year ago. Wick's cradles feature in the nightmares of everyone at 165, but especially for the stockier types like Chance.
Although he was an All-American last yeah, Josh Shields has jumped another level after jumping up a weight class. Having the Valencia brothers as training partners certainly doesn't hurt. He beat Massa 7-3 in a dual meet earlier this year.
White is now 0-2 in his college career against Joseph. Cenzo beat Isaiah 2-0 in a dual meet and stopped him in sudden victory in the quarterfinals of the 2018 NCAA Championship. Isaiah, like everyone else who wants to beat Vincenzo, will have to figure out a way through Joseph's impregnable defense if he wants to make it to his first NCAA semifinal round.
Smith got the first takedown, but Ashworth scored the go-ahead two to beat the two-time All-American Cowboy in the consolation semifinals at the Big 12 Tournament (did we mention that Joe is a two-time All-American yet?). It would be a stunningly quick exit for Smith if something like that were to happen in Pittsburgh, but sometimes that's just how the bracket crumbles.
Watch Ashworth vs. Smith in the video below:
If Romero and Wolf don't put double digits on the scoreboard, we will eat a challenge brick.
Session IV
Matches to Watch:
Alex Marinelli vs. Evan Wick
Vincenzo Joseph vs. Josh Shields
Chance Marsteller vs. Branson Ashworth (consi)
Bryce Steiert vs. Mekhi Lewis (consi)
Andrew Fogarty vs. Isaiah White (consi)
Demetrius Romero vs. Logan Massa (consi)
It's the fan favorite Friday-night session, replete with the celebrated dog-bone six mat formation.
On one of the center two mats will be (if everything follows our picks and the seeds) the fifth meeting of Marinelli and Wick. After Wick demolished Marinelli 16-3 in the consolation semifinals of the 2018 tournament, there was talk of Wick separating himself from everyone not named Vincenzo Joseph in the 165-pound weight class. Three consecutive wins by Marinelli against zero losses this season have put that notion to rest.
We think Marinelli makes it four-in-a-row, but we have our reservations, because, you know, 16-3.
On the other center mat will be (according to us and the seeding committee) Joseph vs. Shields. Cenzo beat Shields 11-2 in a dual meet this season. That was Shields' worst loss in his college career and the only time he has ever been majored. We've got Cenzo advancing to his third consecutive finals and a chance for revenge against Marinelli.
In the heartbreak consolation round of 12, we were forced to pick four wrestlers to come up just shy of All-American status, though we would be thrilled for those wrestlers to prove us wrong.
We've got Marsteller beating Ashworth, just like he did at the Journeymen Collegiate Classic. We've got Lewis over Steiert, as it played out at the CKLV. We think White gets by Fogarty, which also happened at the 2017 Daktronics semifinals. Finally, we have Massa getting revenge for the CKLV third-place bout, which Romero won 9-6, although it was 18-0 tech fall for Massa in the quarterfinals.
Session V
Matches to Watch:
Logan Massa vs. Josh Shields (third)
Evan Wick vs. Mekhi Lewis (fifth)
Chance Marsteller vs. Isaiah White (seventh)
Let's be honest, no one knows how things are going to unfold in the consolation round, so we just had fun with these picks. Massa over Shields (reversing the result the quarterfinals), Wick over Lewis, and Marsteller over White.
Our justification: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Session VI
Alex Marinelli vs. Vincenzo Joseph
Marinelli's 9-3 victory over Cenzo in the Big Ten finals tied Joseph's largest margin of defeat in his collegiate career. The other six-point defeat coming at the hands of Keaton Subjeck in Joseph's second varsity match in November 2016.
The win in Minneapolis was the second for Marinelli over Joseph in their two meetings. In both cases, it was Cenzo's signature inside trip that was his undoing. In both matches, while Cenzo was snaking his right leg round Marinelli's left, Alex was adjusting his upper body positioning to neutralize Joseph's deadliest attack.
In 2018, Marinelli countered by squeezing a body lock down and to the left, sending Cenzo to his back for a six-point move and securing the come-from-behind win. In 2019, Marinelli began squeezing the body lock before Cenzo whipped his right leg behind Alex's. That ill-advised trip made Cenzo's fall to his back that much swifter. Alex also hastened the descent by widening his stance as Joseph tried his counter attack, providing the balance he needed when Joseph tried to roll off his back once they both tumbled down onto the mat.
In that same Big Ten finals bout, trailing late in the match, Vincenzo went to the well once more, only this time, Marinelli wasn't in position to counter with a body lock, so he swiveled his hips around Cenzo and butt-dragged around for two more points to ice the match.
Will Joseph continue to live and die by the inside trip if he sees Marinelli for the third time in the NCAA finals? He might. He might also try relying on his underrated blast double that he cleanly hit on Marinelli in their 2018 match.
For Marinelli, a key to victory will be finding a way to generate offense and finishing his high crotch attacks through Cenzo's lead hips.
Or perhaps they'll both just let it fly and we get to witness dueling throws for seven minutes, reminiscent of the classic Schultz vs. Banach 1982 NCAA finals match. One can only hope.
Spey's Spredictions
- Marinelli
- Joseph
- Massa
- Shields
- Wick
- Lewis
- Marsteller
- White
For our entire bracket, please see below.
NCAA bracket for 165 pic.twitter.com/GgkeMxE5JC
— The King of Chalk (@SpeyWrestle) March 16, 2019
Apologies for the boring chalk picks and for disrespecting the wrestlers we picked against. Nomad is next up with 174, then we'll handle 184. See you then!