2019 NCAA Tournament Preview + Predictions: 174 Pounds
2019 NCAA Tournament Preview + Predictions: 174 Pounds
Previewing the NCAA tournament at 174 pounds, with a session-by-session breakdown and All-American picks.
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We're just days away from the start of the 2019 NCAA tournament, and the previews are still flying in. The 330 best college wrestlers in the nation will all soon converge on Pittsburgh for three of the most grueling days of their lives.
The end of the middleweights means that we return to the greatest rivalry in college wrestling history: Mark Hall versus Zahid Valencia.
One of the rarest things in college wrestling is for two national champions to have the same four-year overlap, and stay in the same weight class as each other. That's exactly what's happened with the Sun Devil and Nittany Lion though.
Hall took round one in the infamous "headgear pull" semifinal en route to his national title as a freshman in 2017. Zahid took about 100 shots to win round two at the start of last season in the All-Star Classic, which is the first ingredient for a great rivalry: having wins against each other in multiple seasons.
They met again in the NCAA finals in Cleveland, with the two athletes putting the crowd on their feet after an early scramble, and Zahid winning 8-2 after taking Hall down in each period. This past December, Hall struck back, shutting down a Zahid attack and turning into a takedown of his own, as well as riding out the whole third period.
Weight Class Previews: 125 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 157 | 165
In order for them to meet on Saturday night, Hall has to once again beat Myles Amine, who he has taken out four times in college, but each was only by one point. Valencia will have to avenge a Feb. 8 loss to Daniel Lewis in which he got cradled up and pinned.
Title Contenders
#1 Mark Hall, Penn State
#2 Daniel Lewis, Missouri
#3 Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
All-American Threats
#4 Myles Amine, Michigan
#5 Jordan Kutler, Lehigh
#6 David McFadden, Virginia Tech
#7 Jacobe Smith, Oklahoma State
#8 Taylor Lujan, Northern Iowa
#9 Devin Skatzka, Minnesota
#10 Mikey Labriola, Nebraska
I'm ready for all your "disrespect" talk. Bring it, please. I'm sleeping on all of you. And you know what, if I'm the reason you place or win a national title, because I put you in a different tier in a preview, you're welcome.
Similar to my argument with Josh Alber at 141, Amine has never beaten Hall. If he were to do so in the semis, it would be considered a notable upset for pretty much everyone in the arena and watching across the country. He's beaten Kutler twice in a row after losing to him in a dual last season.
Session I
Matches to watch
Brandon Womack vs. Neal Richards
Brit Wilson vs. Spencer Carey
Ethan Smith vs. Kimball Bastian
Since losing to Mark Hall in the Keystone semis, Richards has won 21 matches in a row. His first match is against former 165-pound AA Brandon Womack.
A little MAC versus EIWA action as Wilson opens up with Carey, two guys who have flown under the radar but would be set up much better to be bracket busters simply by making it to round two.
Smith should do what he's done all season and fire off a dozen shots against Bastian. That match has plenty of opportunity to be high scoring and/or ridiculous match. This round as a whole is hard to pick upsets on paper, which is theoretically the case for every weight now that they're seeding down to 33, but is especially difficult for 174.
Session II
The heartbreak round. Not quite as gut-wrenching as Friday night, but this is where cute first-round upsets turn into legitimate bracket busters and seniors on their last legs either bow out or continue the long slog through the backside to place.
Aside from Micky Phillippi against Austin Gomez at 133, the Devin Skatzka/Taylor Lujan match might be favorite round two bout of any weight. Phillippi is an underrated leg attacker who is excellent on top and could definitely put Gomez in a hole, as we've seen all season from the Cyclone. Lujan's boot scoots and petersons against the red hot Skatzka, peaking at the right time. Sign me up.
At the beginning of his redshirt season, Mikey Labriola beat Jacobe Smith 7-6 in the finals of the Bob Smith Open. That alone would make this one interesting, but then throw in Labriola's propensity for explosive doubles and fearlessness to attack, combined with Jacobe's ability to go upper body, and you've got a recipe for beautiful disaster.
Session III
Hall over Lujan
Amine over Kutler
Zahid over McFadden
Lewis over Smith
Hall beat Lujan 6-2 last year in a quarterfinal. In the first period, Hall scored off a duck that he turned into a horseshoe finish. Lujan then got caught in an odd chin-whip position to get turned about halfway through the first, and Hall would only score again on an escape and riding time. Hall's ability to ride and negate Lujan's upper-body tricks and funk makes this a pretty bad matchup for the Panther.
Amine's ability to come out the back and hit Iranian finishes kept Kutler off his own offense in the dual. At last year's NCAAs, when they also met as the 4/5, Amine went head outside and fought through a chest lock to score the only takedown of the match. Being able to time Kutler's double will be huge for Amine.
David McFadden is a high-level wrestler, an All-American and U23 world team member. But I don't see much reason why Zahid can't do the same type of thing to DMF that Joe Smith did to the Hokie at the Southern Scuffle.
The only time Jacobe Smith and Daniel Lewis have faced off resulted in a Lewis win, but that was in a dual last season. He's still of course good enough to beat Lewis for the first time, but the Tiger senior has had an incredible season, with just the single loss to Amine in the CKLV finals. When in doubt, I'm taking the guy who's better on top, but the fact that Jacobe can throw just about anybody is terrifying. Easily the most anticipated quarter of this weight.
Bloodround picks: Kutler over Labriola, Lujan over Lydy, Jacobe over Bastian, McFadden over Skatzka.
Session IV
Hall 3-2 over Amine
Zahid 7-5 over Lewis
Both of Hall's wins over Amine this season were 3-2, once in the dual at the Bryce Jordan Center and again in the Big Ten finals. The takedowns he used to win those matches were different though, with the dual being decided on a go-behind late in the third period. Last Sunday in the conference finals, Hall scored late in the first period off an attempted slideby that turned into coming out the back door on a single. Amine is one of the best wrestlers in the country, and were it not for Hall could be a multiple-time finalist or champ. But just like Mitchell Port and Devin Carter had Logan Stieber, Amine has Hall.
Daniel Lewis had one of the most randomly surprising moments of the season, in part because we thought Zahid and Mark were so far separated from the field, if not score-wise at least results-wise. I'm not sure I see Lewis pinning Zahid again, but he did get the first takedown of the match, which turned into a Valencia escape and takedown. That turned into backpoints for the Sun Devil, but then Lewis ultimately got a reversal. Zahid got out to end the period 6-4 before the cradle in the second. Zahid's going to have trouble getting out once again, which is why I see him trying to rack up the takedowns early and put Lewis in a hole.
Session V
All of the NCAA tournament weights are easy to pick going mostly chalk, if nothing else because they now seed all 33 and it's easy to call someone a "bracket buster" until you have to sit down and pick them to beat someone they got majored by in the regular season. That's why Zeke Moisey is the most improbable finalist of the past five years: many people felt he could do better than his 15 seed, but basically no one saw him beating Nahshon Garrett and Thomas Gilman. At 174, it's the hardest to pick upsets.
This weight has been extremely easy to rank over the past two seasons, because for whatever reason the top 10 or so guys all seem to overlap in their schedules. To set up the consi semi against Daniel Lewis, we're going back to the 2018 Southern Scuffle semis, in which Jordan Kutler beat Taylor Lujan. The other side is a couple guys meeting at a catch weight, as Jacobe Smith started the year at 184 and David McFadden was a 165 last season. Maybe it's recency bias, the but Jacobe we saw at Big 12s can beat McFadden.
Kutler was clearly not right in the consi semis last year when he had to injury default against Lewis before the first period ended. But he was much closer to full strength when Lewis beat him 8-1 in December. Now, seven of those points came in the first period and then they traded escapes, but Lewis' ability to ride and score points in bunches makes him hard to pick against.
You've heard me make no bones about the fact I think Jacobe is primed for a great tournament, but Amine's low single stuff is going to be too much. The Wolverine is clearly the third-best guy in the country.
I can't emphasize enough that the fans in Pittsburgh and watching at home should be locked in on Saturday morning. How about David McFadden versus Taylor Lujan for seventh? You think those two aren't putting up fireworks? Kutler and Jacobe for fifth will be their fourth meeting in the past three years, with Kutler winning all three. He won 10-5 at University Nationals in 2017, took a 5-4 decision on riding time at last season's Journeymen event and a 4-2 win in the second round of NCAAs last year.
Myles Amine was the only one to beat Daniel Lewis this season, but due to some other results came out third in the round robin between him, Lewis and Zahid. But it looks like we'll get a repeat of last year's third-place bout, which was won by Amine 4-2 in sudden victory. That one went drastically different than the CKLV finals, with Amine getting ridden out in the second, but then getting a takedown late in the third to force overtime. Their match in Vegas was far more entertaining, with 17 points on the board, kicked off by a couple reversals in the first period.
To beat Daniel Lewis, you've got to be able to overcome his dominance on the mat. That means getting multiple takedowns, which is exactly the type of match Amine can win. The chest wrap is concerning, and the late stall certainly changed the match in Vegas, but Amine's neutral is going to be the difference once again.
Session VI
Hall 4-1 over Valencia
There was a time I said I would never pick Mark Hall over Zahid Valencia, no matter what the results of their matches looked like. Very simply, I felt Zahid was better and a more offensive-minded wrestler. To me, in a battle of evenly matched opponents, the guy always looking to score would come out on top more than the counter-based wrestler.
It was the way Mark won their match in December, as well as seeing him live at the Southern Scuffle, that changed my mind. It is abundantly clear that the recorder prodigy was changing how he was wrestling, sprawling and feeding hips more as opposed to turning everything into a scramble. It added a new wrinkle to his game, something that seemed relatively impossible given that Mark scored all of his offensive points in different ways at last year's NCAA tournament.
Zahid's still firing off shot after shot, majoring the likes of Jordan Kutler and Taylor Lujan. There's a reason this guy made it to Final X last June, and it starts with his "shoot first, ask questions later" mentality. But the oohs and ahhs of last year's final will be replaced by downblocking and riding. Making it a less entertaining match is how Mark Hall wins his second NCAA title.
Nomad's AA Picks
- Hall
- Valencia
- Amine
- Lewis
- Smith
- Kutler
- McFadden
- Lujan