2019-20 NCAA Preview & Predictions: 125 Pounds
2019-20 NCAA Preview & Predictions: 125 Pounds
Previewing 125 pounds before the Division 1 college wrestling season begins, with All-American predictions for the 2020 NCAA tournament.
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Summer has turned to fall, which means the leaves (and Flo’s logo) are changing from green to red. It also means folkstyle has returned, with the start of the NCAA season just over two weeks away.
Preview szn will take into account many things, from weight class rankings to redshirt reports to the crystal ball rankings, to try to give you as clear a picture as possible of what’s in store for the 2019-20 season. The specter of Olympic Trials will hang over the year, impacting weight class changes and the depth of some brackets at NCAAs.
One of the best things about previews is reading them back at the end of the year to see how the lay of the land changed and how our perceptions of certain teams and athletes evolved. At 125, the two-time defending champ is back, and there is a clear tier at the top. Read on to see who else is in contention to place, who the dark horses are, and what new blood is ready to make an impact right away.
NCAA Previews: 133 | 141 | 149
The Favorite: #1 Spencer Lee, Iowa
Entering this season, the Hawkeye has an opportunity to become just the second wrestler to win three NCAA titles at 125lbs, the first being Stephen Abas. Perhaps even more impressively, he is attempting to do so without ever having taken a redshirt. Speaking of which, it sounds like an Olympic Redshirt is off the table, though he may miss a few competitions for Iowa as he attempts to qualify for the Trials in April.
The junior was unquestionably the most oft-discussed wrestler last season, which happens when you lose even one match as the biggest star on a team with a national brand. However, he once again overcame a few regular-season losses and won the title from the three seed for the second straight year.
The questions seem obvious for the Pennsylvania legend. Since he’s not redshirting, how many freestyle events will he do? Will he focus more on his feet than in previous years to better prepare for freestyle? Can he go undefeated and win his first Big Ten crown? Is Sebastian Rivera the one guy who can beat him, or is Spencer just one of those rare guys who is unbeatable in March?
For more context, here is a portion of a paragraph I wrote in last year’s preview: For the rest of Spencer's career, there will be questions like, can he have a season with 100% bonus? Can he be a four-time champ? Will he break Cael Sanderson's career NCAA tournament points record?
No matter how his regular season goes, the fans in Iowa City are expecting Lee to lead the Black and Gold to their first team title in a decade.
Other Contenders
#2 Jack Mueller, Virginia
#3 Sebastian Rivera, Northwestern
#4 Nick Piccininni, Oklahoma State
#5 Pat Glory, Princeton
Ronnie Bresser was the only All-American to graduate, and Vito Arujua is taking an Olympic Redshirt. On paper right now, there is a very clear top five that I have a pretty hard time seeing anyone else crack into. One guy with eligibility left from last year's final ranking in Drew Mattin has moved up. There's a chance Nick Suriano wrestles in the second semester, possibly back down at 125.
Mueller’s only loss last year was to Spencer Lee in the NCAA finals. The UVA senior’s 8-2 win over Sebastian Rivera in the semis was one of the more impressive and dominating victories that weekend in Pittsburgh. After not placing as a sophomore up at 133, the former U23 world team member is staying down at his true weight for his final season in Charlottesville as he tries to become a three-time All-American. That would make him the third Cavalier to do so, after Chris Henrich and Nick Sulzer.
Rivera catapulted himself to stardom last season with his wins over Spencer Lee in the finals of Midlands and the Big Tens, not to mention when he bumped up to face then #1 Stevan Micic. He summed it up well in his interview after NCAAs, which is an absolute must-watch, by the way:
“I went from the guy that nobody knew to on the map. I’m known across the country now.”
But he also got into how he felt his banner year was a little incomplete without a national title. We'll get into this later in our key dates portion of the preview, but we might get a double dose of Mueller/Rivera this year at CKLV and Midlands.
Somehow Nick Piccininni has never faced either Mueller or Rivera, so I have a hard time knowing if he can make the NCAA finals going through one or both of those guys. Although his pin of Lee was an iconic moment from last season, he's 1-3 overall against Spencer in his career, including two not-so-close matches at the national tournament. With Daton Fix and Kaid Brock both out this year, and a number of freshmen starting, it will be on seniors Picc and Joe Smith to carry the load for the Cowboys.
Pat Glory had a great entrance to college wrestling, finishing in sixth place with 30 wins on the year. The #17 prospect on the 2018 Big Board, a third of Glory's wins came over NCAA qualifiers. But, like most freshmen, his biggest issues came on bottom, getting pinned twice and giving up back points in his other five losses. Aside from all that though, Princeton went all in this year with their #BurnTheShips motif.
Today is the 1st day of the 2019-20 season. No going back, #BurnTheShips. Do your thing internet, lets go viral!
— Princeton Wrestling (@tigerwrestling) October 15, 2019
Get your season tickets here https://t.co/9JFrGBucnD @FloWrestling @ncaawrestling pic.twitter.com/FIqp32nS2b
Best of the Rest
#6 RayVon Foley, Michigan State
#7 Korbin Myers, Virginia Tech
#8 Michael McGee, Old Dominion
#9 Drew Hildebrandt, Central Michigan
#11 Jacob Schwarm, Northern Iowa
#12 Travis Piotrowski, Illinois
Crowded field here fighting for the last few All-American spots. Foley is the clear-cut best guy of this group right now, having placed last year and drastically increasing his bonus rate from his freshman year. A former Fargo champ in Greco, he came back from an injury at Big Tens to place seventh in Pittsburgh, which was still lingering into May at the Junior Trials.
Korbin Myers is a fascinating addition to the weight, dropping down from 133 where he has been a three-time qualifier, once for the Hokies and twice for Edinboro before that. If he can manage the cut, he'll be a top-10 guy from start to finish and a guy VT will need to do well since Mekhi Lewis is taking an Olympic Redshirt.
Another stud wrestling out of the Commonwealth is Michael McGee, who was in the round of 12 last year. He took some losses in the first half of the year (Shakur Laney, Brandon Cray, Kyle Biscoglia), but then went on a tear in the second semester to finish 27-6 against D1 competition. He had an excellent overtime battle with Foley at the Reno TOC.
McGee is 5-0 lifetime against Drew Hildebrandt, the brother of women's world silver medalist Sarah Hildebrandt. The Central Michigan lightweight went from a .500 wrestler who didn't qualify for NCAAs as a freshman to starting the year ranked ninth as a junior.
Jacob Schwarm is one of the most unorthodox 125s in the country and has an excellent top game. Between being a senior and being pushed by redshirt freshman Kyle Biscoglia it may be enough to jump him up into AA contention for the Panther Train. Whether it's this year or next though, Biscoglia will eventually be making an impact for the Schwab Mob.
Piotrowski split with Schwarm last season and was top 10 in the early part of the year. A three-time qualifier for the Illini, this would be a great season to set a high standard for future lightweights Justin Cardani and Lucas Byrd to chase after.
Sleepers and Landmines
#13 Devin Schroder, Purdue
#14 Alex Mackall, Iowa State
#15 Cole Verner, Wyoming
Austin Assad, Michigan
Yes, I know the first three are just going in order of the rankings. However, that's in some way what those guys still are. All of the terms associated are guaranteed to inspire insult, whether it is "sleeper" or "darkhorse" or "landmine" or even the new one from Willie, "sneaker." But the reason you have to use those terms is that their current results do not currently suggest a pattern that allows you to pick them to do things like be an All-American, even though you recognize they may have the talent to do so.
For example, Schroder did not start his first two years and even then had 13 losses last season. Mackall was a transfer who helped the Cyclones overperform at NCAAs with a pin on the backside. Verner started off his career in the junior college system and yo-yoed in and out of the rankings. All of these guys are very good wrestlers with strong attributes — they just need to put it together on the mat. And we're here to tell you, they can; they just may have not done it yet.
Drew Mattin has moved up to 133 (or possibly even 141), leaving fifth-year senior Austin Assad in the 125 role for the Wolverines. Including his redshirt year, Assad has just 46 matches under his belt collegiately, but if he can stay healthy for a full season he's probably the most likely of anyone in this group to jump onto the podium.
New Blood
#21 Jakob Camacho, NC State
#23 Joey Melendez, North Carolina
#25 Patrick McKee, Minnesota
Alex Thomsen, Nebraska
Brody Teske, Penn State
Michael Colaiocco, Penn
Eric Barnett, Wisconsin
A ton of good freshmen coming into this weight. The highest-ranked is Camacho, who will be taking over for Sean Fausz in Raleigh. He came into the Wolfpack with a strong pedigree, ending up #23 on the 2018 Big Board after winning both Super 32 and FloNationals to go along with a third-place finish at Fargo. He went 21-2 against D1 competition last year, winning three opens and getting third at the Southern Scuffle.
Besides beating two NCAA qualifiers, one other of Camacho's wins came over his ACC rival in Joey Melendez right down Tobacco Road in Chapel Hill. The Illinois native won two Opens, beat a couple of qualifiers, and gained valuable experience by nearly placing at Midlands.
McKee is finally back on a team with his brother Mitch. He had an abbreviated season, with just 12 matches against other Division I wrestlers and only one win over a qualifier. He always had better results in freestyle, so it will be fun to see his folkstyle development as he takes over the starting spot for the Gophers. His rivalry with Alex Thomsen should continue from high school, as they might meet a half dozen times over the next few years.
Speaking of freestyle results, the two best true freshmen finished second and third respectively in the challenge tournament at JR Trials. Michael Colaiocco sometimes looks like an absolute buzzsaw, and has a ton of high-level experience coming from the nation's #1 high school program in Blair Academy. I have him placing right away for the Quakers.
Barnett beat Foley 10-9 at JR Trials, but six of those points came off gut wrenches. Similarly, he took out Teske in the bloodround of the Open 6-4 off two crotch locks and his takedown came off the threat of a crotch lock. Nonetheless, if he starts right away for the Badgers as I expect, he's going to be a real threat in the murderous Big Ten.
Teske is the favorite to take over at 125 for the four-time defending champs. It's very difficult to gauge where he's at, only competing in the Southern Scuffle and then having a couple matches at 133 in the final open of the year, plus not placing in Vegas, though he did beat Camacho there.
Key Dates
Nov. 2: Michigan State Open
Nov. 3: Princeton Open
Nov. 10: Northwestern at Virginia Tech
Dec. 6: Princeton at Oklahoma State
Dec. 6-7: CKLV
Dec. 8: Iowa at Princeton
Dec. 29-30: Midlands
Feb. 15: Penn at Princeton
Feb. 23: Oklahoma State at Iowa
Starting off the first weekend of the year, we could potentially see #6 Foley vs Colaiocco at the MSU Open, and #5 Glory vs #8 McGee at the Princeton Open. The next weekend, we'll get our first look at #7 Myers down to weight and be thrown right into the fire against #3 Rivera.
The first weekend in December is going to be bananas. You've got Princeton's weekend from Hell, with Glory having to face #4 Piccininni and #1 Lee in that order on Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile in Vegas, we could get our first of two potential rematches from last year's semis between #2 Mueller and #3 Rivera.
The second could come at Midlands, with the winner probably getting Spencer Lee. Also there will be EIWA studs in Glory and Colaiocco, the latter of whom should be ranked by then. We're going to have a pretty exact picture of the NCAA seeds by the new year.
January is not without ranked matchups, but few in the top 10. It all depends on how Virginia Duals gets paired up. Getting into February, we'll see Glory vs Colaiocco in a dual meet, and finish off the year with Lee vs Picc round five.
Nomad’s Predictions
- Spencer Lee, Iowa
- Jack Mueller, Virginia
- Sebastian Rivera, Northwestern
- Nick Piccininni, Oklahoma State
- Pat Glory, Princeton
- Michael Colaiocco, Penn
- RayVon Foley, Michigan State
- Michael McGee, Old Dominion
Here's the thing about any content we write in the preseason: All we have to go off of is the matches, most of which are from last season. We don't know who put in the right work in the offseason, who changed their personal relationships that may push them forward or hold them back, and whose mental game took a leap forward. That's why it's so good to do the tiers for each weight heading into the year, because it allows us to see the changes in perception that come with talking about how the weight looks on paper in the fall vs seeing how it plays out in real life in March.
I say all that because we've never seen Piccininni wrestler Mueller or Rivera, and I'm having a hard time deciding if Rivera can ever beat Mueller. If Rivera doesn't take that shot right away, does Mueller get an immediate takedown and then ride him for 2 minutes and 54 seconds? That part may be changed, but Mueller did get another takedown off his own leg attack. Even if Rivera corrects those positions on his feet, it's impossible to ignore five and a half minutes of riding time.
As I've said above, it's so difficult to know how Picc can do against Rivera and Mueller, but his prior years suggest fourth is where he is in the pecking order. Meanwhile Glory got multiple matches against Picc and Rivera, and showed that he can win them, just never got over the hump. He no longer has the ability to, I just am not pulling the trigger on it right now in the preseason.
If you've seen the best version of Colaiocco, you know he is the kind of guy that can put together a tournament in March. While he did lose kind of big to that top tier last year, it's hard not to see a fully healthy Foley placing again. Old Dominion isn't really a stranger to the podium, and McGee seems right on the precipice of breaking through.