Summer has turned to fall, which means the leaves (and Flo’s logo) are changing from green to red. It also means folkstyle has returned, with the start of the NCAA season less than two weeks away.

Preview szn will take into account many things, from weight class rankings to redshirt reports to the crystal ball rankings, to try to give you as clear a picture as possible of what’s in store for the 2019-20 season. The specter of Olympic Trials will hang over the year, impacting weight class changes and the depth of some brackets at the NCAA tournament in Minneapolis.

Over a third of the guys in the final 2018-19 ranking have graduated from 149, including the top three placers from Pittsburgh. Not to mention #5 is redshirting, while #10 and #16 are moving up in weight. That leaves it as perhaps the most wide-open weight for now, along with some of the most interesting additions to the field from incoming freshmen and guys changing weights.

NCAA Previews: 125 | 133 | 141

The Favorite: To Be Determined

A throne long held by Zain Retherford, and then taken by Anthony Ashnault over the likes of Micah Jordan and Matt Kolodzik at the end of last year, 149 is now more up for grabs than it’s been in a long time. So this portion will remain empty, and our contenders list will be expanded.

The Contenders

#1 Austin O’Connor, North Carolina

#2 Brock Mauller, Missouri

#3 Jarrett Degen, Iowa State

#5 Sammy Sasso, Ohio State

#11 Brayton Lee, Minnesota

The first preseason #1 of the Coleman Scott era, now the pressure’s on O’Connor to deliver a national title to Chapel Hill, which would be just the fourth in UNC history. Going back through the photos of NCAAs it’s quite apparent the emotion he had on his face after making the semis and guaranteeing himself an All-American placement as a freshman. The 12th overall recruit on the 2017 Big Board, O’Connor has been a winner his whole career. But will a title run for the St. Rita product look similar to the one Jason Tsirtsis had, or can he increase his offensive output from the 3.75 points per match he averaged in the postseason?

Our preseason #2 in Mauller suffered a 4-3 defeat in the consi semis at the hands of O’Connor spelled the difference between their third and sixth-place finishes at NCAAs. The champ right before Zain at 149 was another Missouri wrestler in Drake Houdashelt, so Brian Smith may want to call upon his former Tiger for inspiration. After taking over for an injured Grant Leeth last season, there is no confusion this year, with Jaydin Eierman redshirting and Leeth moving down to 141.

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Mauller and #3 Jarrett Degen split their four matches last year, so there’s really not much differentiating those two. Degen went from the Cyclones' only NCAA qualifier to their only returning placer and perhaps one of the most important wrestlers in the program looking towards the 2020 national tournament in Minnesota. He’s going to be battle-tested coming through the Big 12, as this might be the best weight in the conference.

Two guys who squared off for the Junior world team spot round out our list of contenders. Sammy Sasso came in to high school and impacted Pennsylvania AAA wrestling right away at Nazareth, became the face of District XI, had a widely followed recruitment, and wound up at the only school to win team trophies each of the past five years. His third-place showing at Midlands included wins over Pat Lugo, Alec Pantaleo, and Josh Maruca. He finished off his year with a 6-4 victory over Brayton Lee in the finals of the Edinboro Open.

Lee was a three-time Indiana state champ out of the same club that produced Chad Red. For nearly his entire high school career, he placed at all the majors — Akron, Super 32, Fargo — beating just about all his peers, but never finishing at the top of the heap. Then he finally won Fargo as a graduated senior, and rebounded from getting teched by Sasso in the Open finals to beat him twice en route to the Junior world team spot. He’s always been a shade better in freestyle due to his neutral prowess, but his pace is just as difficult to deal with in folkstyle.

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Best of the Rest

#4 Brock Zacherl, Clarion

#6 Pat Lugo, Iowa

#7 Boo Lewallen, Oklahoma State

#8 Max Thomsen, Northern Iowa

#10 Mike D’Angelo, Princeton

By sheer happenstance I wound up calling the last match of Zacherl’s season. It was at CKLV, and seemed like a huge blow to Clarion. But thanks to the NCAA’s much-improved positions on medical redshirts and sixth years, Zacherl gets one more crack at a national title in perhaps an even better position this time around. A three-time qualifier, he has just 12 career losses.

Lugo is the type of guy Iowa will be depending on to make a jump this year as they push for a title. But he’s ranked sixth to enter the season, and was eighth last year along with a Round of 12 finish as a freshman, so the data thus far in his career suggests his preseason ranking is about what his talent level is, placement-wise. Expect a lot of overtime, as over 20 percent of his matches last season went beyond seven minutes.

Boo Lewallen committed to Oklahoma State after his junior year of high school, but his career is nearing its close. The issue for Lewallen has never been desire or skill or practice partners — it’s been health and opportunity. His one and only full season he was an All-American, beating four other AAs that year, but he's constantly battling injuries. The first four weights will be crucial for the Cowboys, especially with Kaid Brock and Daton Fix out. We spent the day with him back in February before the Iowa dual.

Max Thomsen placed fifth as a freshman and has lost in the bloodround twice since then. A key piece in the Panthers' strong 2015 recruiting class, it is their last shot to put it all together as a group and give UNI their best NCAA tournament finish of the Doug Schwab era. He's going to see Degen and Lewallen multiple times in the second half of the year, the first of which he is 3-0 against and the second he is 1-2 against, losing the last two.

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With Matt Kolodzik focusing on freestyle, Mike D'Angelo slides down to 149 in his final year for the Tigers. A two-time national qualifier up at 157, he went 19-4 while taking a greyshirt. An NHSCA senior champ and Super 32 finalist from New York, D'Angelo has placed three times before at EIWAs but never claimed a conference title.

New Blood

#14 Griffin Parriott, Purdue

#21 Yahya Thomas, Northwestern

Andrew Alirez, Northern Colorado

Kevon Davenport, Nebraska

Matt Grippi, NC State

We've already covered Lee and Sasso above in the contenders section, so to make up for that we're adding some weight changes to this portion. Parriott was unquestionably a blue-chipper coming out, #7 on the 2016 Big Board, but didn't qualify for NCAAs as a freshman and was 2-2 there last year. But Boilermaker assistant AJ Schopp said Parriott is a new man this season, focused and ready to roll.

Meanwhile, Thomas battled weight issues down at 141, but then looked great in making the Junior world team at 65kg. He didn't even get a chance to qualify for the national tournament as he did not wrestle at Big Tens, but this should be his breakout year, especially with Ryan Deakin at the weight above him.

Perhaps the true freshman I'm most excited to watch is Andrew Alirez. Partially because we've known he's going right away, partially because most of our data on him is in freestyle, and partially because he competes for a smaller program trying to become one of the big dogs. But the main reason is that he's absolutely fearless and a pit bull. Yes, he'll win a ton of matches with his swing single. But he's exactly the kind of kid I believe won't fold in a bloodround match in March.

Willie put Kevon in the Round of 12 in his first batch of crystal ball rankings, but it still is yet to be determined if he redshirts or starts right away over #22 Collin Purinton, a fifth-year senior. Similarly, AJ Leitten was elected a team captain for the Wolfpack so we might not see Matt Grippi this season. 

Key Dates

Nov. 24: Minnesota at Oklahoma State

Nov. 24: Iowa at Iowa State

Dec. 6-7: Cliff Keen Las Vegas

Dec. 29-30: Midlands

Jan. 1-2: Southern Scuffle

Jan. 12: Missouri at Northern Iowa

Jan. 12: Northern Colorado at Oklahoma State

Jan. 17: Northern Iowa at Northern Colorado

Jan. 24: Ohio State at Iowa

Jan. 26: Oklahoma State at Iowa State

Jan. 26: Ohio State at Minnesota

Feb. 2: Missouri at Oklahoma State

Feb. 15: Minnesota at Iowa

Feb. 16: Northern Iowa at Iowa State

Feb. 22: Iowa State at Missouri

Feb. 23: Oklahoma State at Iowa

Thanks to the composition of this weight, damn near every weekend there is going to be a great matchup. The weekend before Thanksgiving we'll get #11 Brayton Lee against #7 Boo Lewallen at Gallagher-Iba and another match between #6 Pat Lugo and #3 Jarrett Degen in Ames, just one of several juicy matchups when the Hawkeyes face the Cyclones.

Then at CKLV we could see the following guys: Degen, Lee, #4 Brock Zacherl, #5 Sammy Sasso, #8 Max Thomsen, and stud freshman Alirez, to go along with six other guys in the preseason top 20, as well as #21 Yahya Thomas. An excellent way to mark yourself as a front runner for the NCAA title a month into the season.

Then at Midlands we'll see O'Connor's first test of the year, with Lugo and Thomsen in the mix, along with D'Angelo, Parriott, and Yahya. Then a couple of days later at the Scuffle we'll get Degen, Lewallen, and Alirez before the Big 12 schedule even starts, plus #15 Requir van der Merwe and #18 Russell Rohlfing out of the Pac-12.

Sunday, January 12 will be fun: Brock Mauller against Max Thomsen and Alirez vs Lewallen. Turning right around that next week Alirez will face Thomsen, potentially with both of them coming off losses and hungry to get back on track. Did I mention the Big 12 is going to be fun this year?

We've barely mentioned the Big Ten, but that'll start picking up in late January with Sasso against Lugo at Carver-Hawkeye, then Sasso vs Brayton in Minneapolis in one of the more brutal weekends of the year. That same weekend Boo faces Degen in Ames.

Heading into February, we get Mauller vs Lewallen, and then perhaps our only break of the season. We finish with a flurry, as Brayton takes on Lugo followed by Thomsen against Degen the next day. Closing out the year we'll get Degen vs Mauller and Lewallen facing Lugo.

Phew. Don't envy our rankers for 149.

Nomad's Predictions

1. Sammy Sasso, Ohio State
2. Austin O'Connor, North Carolina
3. Brock Mauller, Missouri
4. Brayton Lee, Minnesota
5. Jarrett Degen, Iowa State
6. Andrew Alirez, Northern Colorado
7. Max Thomsen, Northern Iowa
8. Pat Lugo, Iowa

Just like last year, no matter who I pick, it's someone who's never done it before. Given the number of important matches listed above, it's also highly unlikely we see someone go undefeated. So I'm picking the guy I think is most likely to put together five matches in March: Sammy Sasso.

Yung Sasso has taken losses in his career, and he yo-yoed around the top five in high school. But he's got the mat game, he's hard to score on, and from that he can put guys on their back with his straight leg cradle. I've seen him win Fargo, Super 32, Ironman, FloNationals, PA states, Who's #1, and the U.S. Open. He's at a power program where guys have won before, and he's got the pedigree from one of the most historic areas for wrestling in the country.

A coaching staff that battles is the one in North Carolina. They fight for rankings, they fight for seeds, they want their recruits mentioned all the time, and they're hungry to become a contender. That's the environment O'Connor is in right now, so I don't have much issue seeing him claw through Thursday and Friday in Minneapolis to get to the finals.

Mauller's not fooling me. I frequently give Missouri guys too little credit, not this year. Maybe I'm sleeping on him by not picking him to win or make the finals, but he's got top four written all over him this year. He's battled with Lee a ton, mostly in freestyle, and Mauller won the last time they faced off so that's why Brayton goes fourth. I've also got a tad more faith in Mauller's folk, for now.

Degen and Alirez could see each other as many as four times this year, and so I'm going with the prior AA there, but Boo is going to be difficult to keep out of the top five, let alone off the podium at all. Thomsen is 3-0 against Lugo going back to high school, so I'm going with history there.

If you tell me I'm getting 2018 Boo Lewallen, guaranteed a full year of health, I'd pick him to place. But his body worries me, so he's not in my top eight. Here's hoping for a clean bill of health for all these guys.