On December 18 on FloWrestling Radio Live Ep. 440, Christian Pyles, The Wrestling Nomad, David Bray, and I had a spirited conversation about who we thought would win the 133-pound Midlands Championships between #1 Austin DeSanto, #2 Seth Gross, and #3 Sebastian Rivera. Almost all of us saw it going differently, but I'm here today to explain to you why I will be right and Seth Gross will be standing on top of the Midlands Championships podium on December 30. 

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#2 Seth Gross vs #3 Sebastian Rivera

Despite all three wrestlers having previously won a Midlands Championships, Austin DeSanto should be the top seed thanks to his win over Gross earlier this month which means we'll get a Gross-Rivera semifinal which we have never seen before and I don't believe this is a matchup that favors Rivera. 

A year ago, Rivera, the nation's top-ranked 125-pounder at the time, bumped up to take on the nation's top-ranked 133-pounder at the time, Stevan Micic. The size difference jumped off the screen and the two looked like they were separated by more than a weight class. In the showdown of top-ranked wrestlers, Micic racked up four takedowns and accumulated over three minutes of riding time. 

Watch Rivera and Micic battle. 

While Rivera will not be weighing in at 125 and then bumping to 133 as he did against Micic, he is just three weeks removed from making 57kg at the Puerto Rico World Team Trials.

Rivera is fantastic on his feet, but I expect him to struggle with Gross' length and size just like he did against Micic. The Northwestern All-American is no slouch of a scrambler, but Gross is one of the elite scramblers in college wrestling who even if Rivera gets in can earn a stalemate or turn it into his points. 

The other area that Gross holds an advantage is on the mat. Rivera was able to escape from Spencer Lee multiple times last season, he did surrender a riding time point to Lee in the Big Ten finals, and as you can see from the match above gave up over three minutes of riding time against Micic, and in the NCAA semifinals in March was ridden for five minutes by Jack Mueller. 

Since Gross' redshirt freshman season at South Dakota State, he's won 73% of his matches by bonus points and the majority of those come from his incredible top game. Even if Gross isn't able to pick up a turn he often chews up large chunks of matches on top. 

Add up all of these factors and I believe Seth Gross will have a rematch with Austin DeSanto in the Midlands Championship finals. 

#1 Austin DeSanto vs #2 Seth Gross

When Austin DeSanto stunned then #1 Seth Gross earlier this month, it didn't play out the way the most thought it would go. I don't think anyone was stunned that DeSanto won, but it was how he did it. The Hawkeye All-American is known for his physical breakneck pace, but the version of DeSanto we saw inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena that night was patient and picked his spots carefully. 

Watch DeSanto take out then #1 Seth Gross. 

Likewise, the version of Gross that we saw is not what we are accustomed to seeing. The NCAA champion only touched DeSanto's legs once and didn't covert, but more surprisingly DeSanto was able to score on three of the four times he was in Gross' legs. Gross was able to ride out DeSanto the entire third period but failed to get a turn. While DeSanto usually does not get turned, he has had his struggles on I bottom against elite top wrestlers like Jack Mueller, Ethan Lizak, and now Gross.

Unlike their first meeting, Gross will have had 10 days off before the beginning of Midlands. As Wisconsin head coach Chris Bono recently mentioned in an interview with our very own Christian Pyles, Gross had been on the road frequently, switching weight classes, and wrestling a different style. Two weeks before facing DeSanto, Gross was in New York City wrestling at the Bill Farrell down at 57kg. A week after that and a week before meeting DeSanto, Gross was in Utah back up at 133 taking on Taylor LaMont. There's no denying DeSanto took it to Gross in their first meeting, but the Seth Gross we saw on December 1 inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena was the not best version and not the one I believe we will see at Midlands. 

As Nomad mentioned in his lightweight preview when he spoke to Bono at U.S. Senior Nationals last weekend the Badger head coach and Gross had already been working on making mental and technical adjustments for his rematch with DeSanto. I expect Gross to work hard to get the first takedown and put a ride on DeSanto. I would also expect Gross to take top when he has choice to chew up the clock and give himself more time to work on turning DeSanto. In my humble opinion, it will be Seth Gross who wins his second Midlands Championship and stands atop the podium Monday night.

Whatever happens inside Sears Centre Arena, 133 will be the talk of the Midlands Championships and the weight class you absolutely cannot miss.