5 Big Developments And 3 Major Questions In Iowa/PSU Team Race
5 Big Developments And 3 Major Questions In Iowa/PSU Team Race
Iowa and Penn State's team battle has changed a lot since preseason. Here are 5 major developments and 3 big questions for the second half of the season.
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Before the season began, Iowa was projected to finish in second place and score 103 points. Now, halfway through the season, they're the top-ranked team with a projected team total of 135.5.
Penn State's preseason point projection was 119.5, which was good enough for the top spot in the rankings. Injuries have changed their lineup, and while their newest lineup isn't plugged into the rankings yet, they would be projected to score 74, a number that seems significantly lower than their eventual team score.
A number of results from the first half of the season have led to this shift in the projected team score, and each team still has a handful of unanswered questions that could shift the NCAA team landscape moving forward. Here are the biggest changes since the preseason and the biggest lingering questions.
Biggest Changes Since Pre-Season
Pat Lugo from #6 to #1 at 149
Iowa's Pat Lugo was one of the biggest movers in the rankings on either team in the first half of the season. He started the season ranked sixth but is 10-0 with three wins over wrestlers in the top eight in the country and has moved into first place.
Lugo's first big win of the year came in Iowa's dual against Iowa State. Lugo won a 4-3 match against Jarret Degen and, in doing so, avenged two losses from a season ago.
His second and third big wins of the year came at the 2019 Ken Kraft Midlands Championships. In the semifinals, Lugo won a tight 3-2 match with UNI's #7 Max Thomsen. Lugo's biggest win of the year came over #1 Austin O'Connor in the Midlands finals.
Lugo's move from #6 to #1 is worth an 11-point bump in the team projections. Lugo has looked outstanding throughout the season, but 149 remains a deep weight with incredible parity.
Aaron Brooks Enters PSU Lineup at 184
Before the season began, few people considered Aaron Brooks starting to be a real possibility with Shakur Rasheed holding down the seventh spot in the rankings. That all changed early in December when Brooks' redshirt was pulled for a weekend featuring duals against Lehigh and Penn.
Brooks is undefeated so far in his first five matches of the season. His schedule hasn't afforded him the opportunity to challenge the top wrestlers at the weight, but his sixth-place performance at Senior Nationals included impressive senior-level wins over Max Dean and Sammy Brooks which suggests that he's ready to make a big impact this year.
As it stands, Brooks' 25th-place ranking is not worth any points in the team score which drops Penn State's projection from the 7.5 Rasheed was slated to earn at 184.
Kyle Conel Out, Shakur Rasheed In at 197
Penn State announced yesterday that Shakur Rasheed would be replacing Kyle Conel at 197 who was projected to score 13.5 points in the preseason rankings. Rasheed, a former All-American at 197, will likely enter the rankings at around #10 alongside former All-American Ben Darmstadt.
If Rasheed is ranked between nine and 12, that would add two points to the Penn State team score, a significant drop from the 13.5 Conel was allotted in the preseason.
Anthony Cassar Out, Seth Nevills In at 285
The biggest drop in Penn State's team projection comes at heavyweight. Coach Cael Sanderson announced yesterday that returning NCAA champion Anthony Cassar would not be competing for the remainder of the NCAA season. He will be replaced by true freshman Seth Nevills.
Cassar entered the preseason as the top-ranked heavyweight in the land, good for a 20-point projection. Nevills will likely enter the rankings between 17 and 24, a spot that would earn him half a point in the team score projection.
Tony Cassioppi from #11 to #4 at 285
While Penn State's projected points at heavyweight have dropped due to Cassar's injury, Iowa's projected points have climbed due to Tony Cassioppi's success in the first half of the season.
Cassioppi is 9-0 on the year with big wins over #6 Matt Stencel and #5 Trent Hillger. The Iowa freshman has looked outstanding so far this season. He'll have good tests against Mason Parris and Gable Steveson in back-to-back duals on February 8 against Michigan and February 15 against Minnesota. This should tell us if Cassioppi is a serious title contender this season.
3 Big Questions for Second Half of Season
How Good is Aaron Brooks?
Aaron Brooks is a highly anticipated freshman for Penn State, but his NCAA finish this season is hard to predict as his folkstyle results have been limited so far in his college career. Taking a strictly-numbers approach, Brooks is 11-1 between this season and his redshirt year last season with a loss to Wisconsin's Ryan Christiansen and his best win coming against Army's Ben Harvey.
But it would be foolish to overlook Brooks who just registered freestyle wins over NCAA finalist Max Dean and multiple-time All-American Sammy Brooks at Senior Nationals.
Brooks should see #11 Zach Braunagel of Illinois in a dual this weekend but will have a bigger test on January 24 against #6 Taylor Venz when the Nittany Lions head to Lincoln for a dual with Nebraska. Brooks' level of success is a major question for Penn State. A podium finish for the true freshman wouldn't surprise many people.
What Kind of Impact Will Rasheed and Nevills Have at 197 and 285?
Shakur Rasheed and Seth Nevills are not currently in the national rankings as they were just added to the Penn State lineup, but when they do enter the rankings, they will only account for a combined 2.5 projected team points. Rasheed is an All-American, and Nevills was a blue-chip recruit, so this projection feels lower than reality.
In Rasheed's All-American season in 2018, he finished seventh at NCAAs with wins that season over former All-Americans Willie Miklus, Kevin Beazley, and Jacob Holschlag. He also has a win over the current #2 Christian Brunner of Purdue. These results suggest that he might be ready to make a much bigger impact than his initial ranking would suggest.
When Nevills enters the rankings, he will be projected to score half a point, an inconsequential number in the total team score. His 16-1 mark last year, combined with his win over Youssif Hemida, suggests that his potential is higher than that. He's 6-0 so far this year with three falls and a tech and will have a very big challenge at the end of the month against Iowa's Tony Cassioppi.
Will Eierman or Assad Enter Iowa's Lineup?
While most of the questions about the remainder of this season center around Penn State, Iowa could still make a couple of interesting moves that would impact this team race.
At 141, Iowa picked up Missouri transfer Jaydin Eierman who is currently in an Olympic redshirt. Eierman has yet to qualify for the Olympic Trials and has only two more opportunities: the NCAA Championships, where he would need to win, and the last chance qualifier March 26-28 in Millersville, PA, where he would need to finish in the top two.
Eierman would be considered an immediate NCAA title threat at 141 this year and would be projected to score more than current Hawkeye 141-pounder Max Murin, who is ranked seventh and projected to score 6.5 points. Murin, however, is 8-0 on the season and continues to register impressive results which makes the Eierman move feel less and less likely.
The final lineup question for Iowa comes at 184 where a season-long lineup battle between senior Cash Wilcke and redshirt freshman Nelson Brands may be interrupted by true freshman Abe Assad who just made a run to the Midlands finals, placing ahead of Wilcke, who was third, and Brands, who did not place.
Coach Brands would need to pull Abe Assad's redshirt in order to insert him in the lineup. While this move doesn't feel immediately pending, coach Brands has said several times that he has "three options" at 184 suggesting that Assad could be the starter.
