2020 Big Ten Wrestling Championship

Official 2019-20 Hodge Rankings Update #8: Spencer Lee At The Top

Official 2019-20 Hodge Rankings Update #8: Spencer Lee At The Top

Spencer Lee moves to the top of FloWrestling's official Hodge rankings following the indefinite suspension of Zahid Valencia from Arizona State's team.

Feb 26, 2020 by Wrestling Nomad
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There's a new #1 atop this week's Hodge Rankings, and he will be considered the frontrunner throughout the postseason.

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There's a new #1 atop this week's Hodge Rankings, and he will be considered the frontrunner throughout the postseason.

We are operating under the assumption that Zahid Valencia will not be wrestling at Pac-12s or NCAAs as it has been reported he has been indefinitely suspended from the team. Although you do not technically have to be a national champion to win the Hodge, it is silly to keep him in these rankings.

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That makes Iowa junior Spencer Lee the runaway favorite to win wrestling's version of the Heisman this year. He is unquestionably at the top of the eighth installment of FloWrestling's official Hodge Trophy rankings for the 2019-20 season.

You are looking at the final Hodge rankings heading into the postseason, and we will do an update after all of the conference tournaments. There will then be one after each session of the NCAA Championships in Minneapolis.

For the purpose of these rankings, only matches against other Division I wrestlers are factored in, and bouts against teammates are thrown out. Here is a brief overview of the baseline stats from our contenders:

RankNameSchoolWinsPinTechMajor
1Spencer LeeIowa14382
2Vincenzo JosephPenn State13513
3Nick LeePenn State18474
4Kollin MooreOhio State23368
5Michael KemererIowa13233
6Mason ParrisMichigan25916
7Gable StevesonMinnesota12316
8Ryan DeakinNorthwestern18507
9Jack MuellerVirginia12432
10Pat GloryPrinceton19482
11Shane GriffithStanford23707
12Noah AdamsWest Virginia26525
13Chas TuckerCornell27201

Pretty consistently you will see that I put a lot of stock in winning one of CKLV, Midlands, or Scufffle, mainly because there are so few opportunities to see D1 wrestlers in a high-level tournament setting. I also believe strongly in falls importance to the Hodge, since the award's namesake Danny Hodge is maybe the most statistically dominant pinner in NCAA history (36 pins in 46 matches).

Lastly, I frequently use past credentials as a separation point and tiebreaker. So guys like Zahid, Spencer, and Cenzo who already began this season with a pair of NCAA titles had a head start, and then past placements are an easy thing to look at when comparing two guys with similar resumes.

We've removed the honorable mentions, and now those four from last time are included in the rankings. They represent the fourth tier along with Jack Mueller, with the group from Ryan Deakin to Kollin Moore comprising tier three.

Hodge Rankings: #7 | #6 | #5 | #4 | #3 | #2 | #1

13) Chas Tucker (Cornell), 133

Tucker faces an uphill battle to even be a finalist, with just an 11-percent bonus rate, and those four guys in the Big Ten all considered to be ahead of him in the pecking order at this weight. Cornell has had a Hodge winner before in Kyle Dake and Yianni was a finalist last year, so it's not unprecedented for the Big Red to have a guy in this position.

Dominance Score - 3.26

Bonus Rate - 11%

Average Time on Mat - 6:42

Ranked Wins - 7

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12) Noah Adams (West Virginia), 197

Adams was #27 on the final Class of 2017 Big Board. That pegged him as a guy who could be an All-American and certainly a great get for WVU, but not necessarily a guy who would enter conference weekend undefeated as a sophomore. His last five matches were all decisions, but his biggest wins of the season are over ranked guys: a pin of Dakota Geer, as well as a pin and major over Jacob Seely.

Dominance Score - 3.92

Bonus Rate - 46%

Average Time on Mat - 6:09

Ranked Wins - 7

11) Shane Griffith (Stanford), 165

Griffith and Real Woods are the future for both the Pac-12 and the Cardinal. Just like I said a few rankings ago about Mueller leaving the ACC, every conference needs new guys to carry the torch and give them nationally prominent stars. Griffith appears to be one of those young guys out west right now, and will even bring the east coast folks in as a graduate of Bergen Catholic.

Dominance Score - 4.22

Bonus Rate - 61%

Average Time on Mat - 6:19

Ranked Wins - 7

10) Pat Glory (Princeton), 125

For anyone on this list not ranked #1 in their own weight class, their Hodge candidacy rests on them pulling upsets. Glory lost the opportunity to wrestle Spencer Lee not once but twice this season, just like Lee lost two chances to beat the nation's third-ranked 125-pounder. Glory is immensely competitive and no doubt wants the Hodge, but his short-term goal is guiding the Tigers to their first EIWA title since Chris Ayres took over.

Dominance Score - 4.58

Bonus Rate - 74%

Average Time on Mat - 5:26

Ranked Wins - 4

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9) Jack Mueller (Virginia), 125

If the Gable Steveson/Mason Parris Big Ten heavyweight final happens, the next anticipated matchup between guys in the Hodge rankings could be the 125lb semis at NCAAs with Mueller against Glory. Here's hoping we get a fully healthy Mueller for NCAAs and any freestyle he would like to pursue this spring and summer.

Dominance Score - 4.67

Bonus Rate - 75%

Average Time on Mat - 4:54

Ranked Wins - 6

8) Ryan Deakin (Northwestern), 157

Deakin finishes his season with a 27.8-percent pin rate and could be on pace to finish second in that category amongst undefeated champs, as guys like Mueller, Griffith, and Parris should be seeded second or lower in their weight at the national tournament. That makes him a real factor to be Northwestern's first finalist since Jake Herbert won the award back in 2009.

Dominance Score - 4.2

Bonus Rate - 67%

Average Time on Mat - 6:02

Ranked Wins - 9

7) Gable Steveson (Minnesota), 285

The Gophers continue to post some great stats about Gable's performance in conference duals. Although his dominance and bonus stats may go down in the postseason, he's still the odds-on favorite to remain unscathed through Big Tens and NCAAs. There have been three previous heavyweights to win the award: Kerry McCoy, Stephen Neal, and Steve Mocco.

Dominance Score - 4.42

Bonus Rate - 83%

Average Time on Mat - 5:35

Ranked Wins - 6

6) Mason Parris (Michigan), 285

Now that we got to see Lee/Pletcher, the most anticipated Big Ten final will be Mason Parris against Gable Steveson. His 36-percent pin rate is behind only that of Vincenzo Joseph, and he has wins over the guys ranked third through sixth in his weight class. Whether or not he ends up a Hodge finalist, Parris has been a bright spot for this Wolverines team and only helps the case that Michigan can be a trophy team when their guys on Olympic Redshirt return.

Dominance Score - 4.4

Bonus Rate - 64%

Average Time on Mat - 5:13

Ranked Wins - 7

5) Michael Kemerer (Iowa), 174

The win over Mark Hall carries so much weight for me. It is unquestionably the biggest victory anyone holds this season, and he added on a pin of Devin Skatzka and major of Joe Smith in his last two matches. Going forward, he won't have much room for error to climb on this list due to his low pin rate, but going three-for-three against Hall should make him a finalist.

Dominance Score - 4.15

Bonus Rate - 62%

Average Time on Mat - 6:14

Ranked Wins - 7

4) Kollin Moore (Ohio State), 197

At this point, Kollin Moore is looking more and more likely to finish his career as an NCAA champ, with only Adams managing to come close to keeping pace with the Buckeye senior this season. No one below him on this list has the same credentials, and most of them don't seem as likely to win a title as Moore does.

Dominance Score - 4.26

Bonus Rate - 74

Average Time on Mat - 6:12

Ranked Wins - 9

3) Nick Lee (Penn State), 141

Lee won the mega matchup with Luke Pletcher, winning the takedown battle, picking up a stall point, and earning riding time. Combined with his wins over Jaydin Eierman and Frank Molinaro at Senior Nationals, it's clear the Indiana native has jumped levels in his third season. He'll play a huge part in the Nittany Lions' trying to fend off Iowa to win their fifth consecutive team title.

Dominance Score - 4.67

Bonus Rate - 83%

Average Time on Mat - 5:33

Ranked Wins - 7

2) Vincenzo Joseph (Penn State), 165

With five pins in 13 matches and two national titles under his belt, Vincenzo Joseph is a no-brainer in the second spot behind Spencer. He'll be the top seed at Rutgers for the conference tournament, still in search of his first Big Ten title. The postseason team race with Iowa is looming, and the Pittsburgh native reminded us Penn State isn't going down without a fight.

Dominance Score - 4.54

Bonus Rate - 69%

Average Time on Mat - 5:44

Ranked Wins - 7

1) Spencer Lee (Iowa), 125

Just three of Spencer's 14 matches have gone the distance. Although he still has only one pin, I do not believe Cenzo's stats compare with that of Zahid's and Lee's average time on the mat is staggering. There was already a good chance he'd win even with Zahid in the fold, and his main focus is still scoring as many team points as possible to help Iowa win the title, a Hodge would still be a pretty good way to head into Olympic Trials.

Dominance Score - 4.93

Bonus Rate - 93%

Average Time on Mat - 3:33

Ranked Wins - 6