Why Sebastian Rivera Will Win Big Tens
Why Sebastian Rivera Will Win Big Tens
Nomad makes the case for why it will be Sebastian Rivera who wins the 2020 Big Ten conference tournament this weekend at 133 pounds.
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There's no doubt that the 133 pound field at Big Tens will be THE weight to watch this weekend. No conference has as much star power concentrated into one bracket.
You've got the top four ranked guys in the country: Seth Gross, Austin DeSanto, Roman Bravo-Young, and Sebastian Rivera. Not only are premier programs Penn State and Iowa involved, there's also the sensations that are Gross and Seabass.
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The debate has divided the office, and everyone has taken sides. JD Rader fired the first salvo, lauding the inimitable Austin DeSanto. JD's a sharp kid who does great breakdowns, and as a recent graduate of Nebraska-Kearney is the person on Flo's content team who most recently spent time in a college room. But, he's from Iowa.
David Bray, a former college professor who taught writing and rhetoric, made the eloquent case for Seth Gross. Bray took the easy way out, taking the former NCAA champ who has beaten all three of his rivals this season. He's the only one writing one of these articles in his 30s, so we all know why he's backing the sixth year senior.
Kyle Bratke, affectionately called "Dadke" now that he has a son, is clearly trying to get out ahead of being the cool dad. He was looking to connect with the youth, so he of course took Roman Bravo-Young. Look, I get it. RBY is the coolest dude in just about every room he enters, and it's no surprise the blue chipper and former Cadet world teamer is a national title threat in only his second season.
I'm here to tell you that they're all wrong, and why it will instead be Sebastian Rivera who comes out on top.
Throw Out The Seeds
As the person who write the most about seeding in the entire sport of wrestling, I was particularly fascinated by how the Big Ten coaches would handle Rivera's seed since he only wrestled in one conference dual. Ultimately they chose to make him the 5 seed, taking what could be called a "common sense" approach.
You often hear stats about how often the 1 seed wins a tournament, which is a reverse correlation thing that has more to do with why they got the top seed (being the best guy) than getting the seed itself. That worked in Rivera's favor last year at Big Tens, and did not work out in his favor at NCAAs. So he knows as well as anyone that all he has to do is be in the field to make it happen.
Home Field Advantage
Lubina will be close to his home of Jackson Township, and about an hour from his adopted home of Toms River, New Jersey.
He's made it clear that his family only comes to important events, especially his father, who runs Elite Wrestling. That was the club where Seabass and several other high level wrestlers spent a majority of their time training.
Well, his family will be there. And probably his high school coaches. Plus his buddies from back home. You think he's going to lose in front of all those people?
The Mindset
I'll let Rivera's own words carry this section.
His mantra before and during big matches:
"I always tell myself, I ain't losing this match. Every single time. Before it starts, I am not losing this match. Whatever I have to do."
On how he thinks he'll do in the Big Ten:
"The reason I said that I think I can beat them all, and I believe that, is 'cause Spencer is a lot better wrestler than them."
On the Seth Gross match:
"I really thought I was gonna land on him and he was gonna be flat. He's strong. He's a big 33 pounder. I got stuck there for four. Nothing wrong with that. It's the only move he did though the whole match."
On focusing on the bigger goal:
"I don't care about Big Tens. Obviously I'm gonna go out there and wrestle my hardest, try to win Big Tens. I don't care, March is what happens. I won Big Tens last year, I didn't win nationals. I'm gonna win Big Tens, but I wanna win nationals. That's all that matters."
The Other Guys
Every wrestler has a weakness, or at least lapses that cost them. Sebastian took a bad shot against Jack Mueller and got rode out. He eased up on the edge against Gross and gave up a lat drop. The list goes on.
Gross can be extremely difficult to take down. But he's more susceptible to fast guys with quick finishes, as Seabass showed with his ankle pick in the Midlands semis. Assuming his ankle is healed, I bet we'll see more of that on Saturday night.
He'll only have to beat one of DeSanto or RBY. A match against the Hawkeye would provide an excellent contrast of styles, where DeSanto will try to rip that tricep carry while Seabass will work from space before attacking the ankle pick.
If he faces Bravo-Young in the finals, it might be the fastest match we'll seen all year. The micro adjustments and split second reaction times on display will decide that one.
The Final Verdict
Honestly, not much has changed in my mind since I picked him to win Midlands. He's got a clean bill of health, the pressure is off him in a team race sense as compared to RBY or DeSanto, and he knows he can not win Big Tens and still win NCAAs.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Seabass is the best wrestler. Seth Gross is the smartest wrestler. DeSanto is a nightmare the first time you face him and RBY has the biggest upside.
It's not just possible it seems almost likely that whoever wins this weekend won't win two weeks later in Minneapolis. So my ultimate point is that, in any given tournament, I'm taking Seabass over three other incredible wrestlers.
The Jersey boy's taking it. The guy who wants to hold a UFC belt will take one step closer to his dream of becoming a national champ. This tournament is Sebastian Rivera's to lose.