Weight-By-Weight Analysis Of A Potential OK State vs Penn State Dual
Weight-By-Weight Analysis Of A Potential OK State vs Penn State Dual
If Oklahoma State and Penn State clashed in a dual meet, would the Cowboys or Nittany Lions come out on top?
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In most years we don’t see Penn State-Oklahoma State matchups during the regular season.
A couple of times in the recent past we have seen postseason matchups between the two during the now-defunct NWCA bowl dual series and other events, so I thought it would be interesting to take a look at what a matchup between the two might look like if it were to somehow happen next season.
Essentially, I merged my Oklahoma State lineup projection with Nomad’s Penn State lineup projection and broke down how it might play out. I’ll start this out by noting that none of us knows for sure what either team’s lineups will be going into next season, so this could certainly play out very differently than this.
Either way, this would make up for an insane dual. Let’s dig in.
125: Daton Fix vs Brandon Meredith or Robbie Howard
I “think” Daton Fix will go down to 125 next year, and though I’ve not been able to confirm that definitively, it seems to be a bit of a consensus among folks around Stillwater. Penn State started Brandon Meredith here last season and has a very highly touted freshman coming in with Robbie Howard. Nomad projects Meredith as the starter but one would expect Robbie Howard to take a ranking match between the two if it were to happen, and Cael Sanderson has not shied away from wrestling true freshmen when needed.
Either way, Daton Fix a pretty solid edge over either of these two. With Meredith, I think you’d expect bonus. Against Howard it would likely be that as well.
133: Kaid Brock vs Roman Bravo-Young
This one might be the match of this made up dual. Brock’s slick high variety of attacks and RBY’s pace and scrambling ability would make for a fun one.
It’s tough to know what Brock will be like off of his injury. If he’s still got his same stuff on his feet, who knows how this will go? I could see Brock scoring on a lot of his attacks and could also see RBY scrambling and scoring off by countering those attacks.
This would be a wild one that could certainly go either way.
141: Dusty Hone or Kaden Gfeller vs Nick Lee
Lee and Gfeller had a pretty legendary match a few years ago in the finals of the Southern Scuffle with Gfeller coming out on top with a fall. I don’t believe most wrestling prognosticators today would expect a repeat if that match was wrestled again. Most would favor Lee as he was on quite the tear last season and looked as though he had a strong chance to win an NCAA title before the cancellation of the tournament.
The Lee vs Gfeller match from the 2018 Southern Scuffle:
On the other side of the equation, Dusty Hone snuck up on a lot of Oklahoma State fans and took over the starting job at 141 last season when many projected Gfeller to be the guy. So we would potentially see a rematch of Lee and Gfeller here, but we could also see Hone toe the line for the Cowboys again this season. Ultimately you have to favor Lee here but I don’t really see him putting bonus on either of these guys. Hone consistently kept it pretty close with most of the top guys he wrestled last season and even in the limited action we saw Gfeller at the Southern Scuffle, he only lost one match by decision and gave up no bonus points.
149: Boo Lewallen vs Jared Verkleeren
Boo Lewallen at times looked like a national title contender last season. After coming back from injury he was great, though he did take a few losses; he still finished as the Big 12 champion and next year will be on the list of title contenders at 149.
Verkleeren has been sort of a middle of the pack in the Big Ten guy. A very highly-touted recruit out of high school, he’s been solid enough and if you look at how they’ve wrestled comparable opponents, I could see this one being close. Ultimately, I have to think the sixth-year senior in Boo would take this, but I do think it could be a bit closer than some expect.
157: Wyatt Sheets vs Brady Berge or Bo Pipher
I think if you went back a few years and tossed this hypothetical matchup out there, most would have Berge as the favorite.
But as we’ve seen lately, Sheets has been on a really clear rise, while Berge has dealt with injuries and split time Pipher due to those injuries. Looking at how the 2020 season closed out, most would project Wyatt to win here, but a full-speed Berge may be a bit different story and could dictate how this one would go.
165: Travis Wittlake vs Joe Lee
We’ve actually seen this one before. Wittlake and Lee wrestled at the Southern Scuffle last season and Wittlake came out on top 8-4. True freshmen, like Wittlake for example, often make a big jump when they go into their redshirt freshmen season. So theoretically Lee could close the gap or even overtake Wittlake here, but as it stands Wittlake would certainly be the favorite.
Here's Wittlake vs Lee from the 2020 Southern Scuffle:
174: Carter Starocci vs Dustin Plott or Gavin Stika
Here’s my theory on 174 for Oklahoma State: I think it’s the one weight where OSU might wrestle a true freshman. They have plenty of guys that are ready to go now — AJ Ferrari is probably a fairly high All-American if he wrestles as a true freshman — but the need for it is more legitimate at 174 than anywhere else. I think they probably start with Stika and see how it goes then make the decision on Plott based on Stika’s performance.
If it’s Starocci vs Stika, then you give a pretty solid edge to Starocci and could potentially be looking at bonus for him. Plott and Starocci feels like a great matchup! You’re really looking at the future of 174-184 over the next few years with these two and a match we could eventually see take place in the finals of the NCAA tournament. As it stands, you’d probably give Starocci, who has a year of college under his belt, a bit of an edge. Down the road, who knows? Plott is a big-time talent and a very high-character kid. I’m really intrigued to see how his career plays out when he gets to Stillwater.
184: Aaron Brooks vs Anthony Montalvo
This could be a pretty good one. On the surface Brooks is the more technical, more credentialed, and most would say “better” wrestler. Montalvo has his just absolutely insane pace and motor, though, and it keeps him in matches he shouldn’t be in and helps him win matches he shouldn’t win.
I think Brooks wins by decision here, but we could see Montalvo make it interesting.
197: Michael Beard vs Dakota Geer
This one we’ve seen before. Beard knocked off Geer at the Southern Scuffle last season 10-5. Geer was once a 184 and he has had some struggles at times with some of the bigger/stronger/physical 197s. That seemed to be what happened in their match last season. With no freestyle this summer and therefore no weigh-ins Geer could bulk up and fill out 197 a bit more by next season, but Beard would certainly be the favorite going into this one.
285: Greg Kerkvliet vs Austin Harris or Shawn Streck
What could have been for Oklahoma State at HWT? Greg Kerkvliet was once committed to Minnesota, then flipped to Oklahoma State, then Ohio State, and eventually transferred from Ohio State to Penn State. We haven’t seen him in college yet, but the kid is a monster. Most expect him to be in the national title conversation next year.
His opponent will likely be Austin Harris or Shawn Streck. Streck was a NCAA qualifier at Purdue a few years ago and has been taking classes at NOC in Stillwater. I believe his eligibility is still up in the air, but if he is able to compete for the Cowboys next season, he will likely take the job over the starter from last year, Austin Harris.
Either way, Kerkvliet is the favorite hear and it may be a situation where the Cowboys are just trying to fend off bonus at this point to seal the dual.
End Result
Oklahoma State probably wins by bonus at 125, by decision at 149, 157, and 165.
PSU would be favored at 141, 174, 184, 197, and 285.
133 looks like a toss-up.
On paper, this is an amazing dual that could come down to bonus, be decided by any upset, or come down to the one true toss-up at 133.
Seth Duckworth is a Stillwater-based writer who covers Oklahoma State University wrestling for Pistols Firing Blog, the best OSU news and community site on the internet. Follow Seth on Twitter.